The Really Useless Thread | Page 6955 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

The Really Useless System 25 replies

Bloomberg: VIX Indicator useless for forecasting the direction of equity prices 0 replies

The Really Really Boring Forex System 97 replies

Attachments: The Really Useless Thread
Exit Attachments

The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,081
  • Feb 9, 2016 8:32am Feb 9, 2016 8:32am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ufff sounds nasty ...don't like recommending trade management when you are already so deep in a position... My only 2 cents, you are trading for a mid term leg so as long as there is not a macro reason in play just sit tight and exit (stop out) only wherever you calculate your risk before entering the trade and not a tick more .... On the actual question about the Euro. As long as the legs in Equities are measured and controlled and without further data, Gold and Euro will stay in BID on risk. However if we get a full blown risk panic...
Just wondering.... is there some visible trigger of "Lehman kind of play" on the horizont? How serious u think the DB situation is? Its just too hard for me to evaluate. But judging from their stocks.... looks serious
  • #139,082
  • Edited 9:11am Feb 9, 2016 8:51am | Edited 9:11am
Equities are reminding me the morning DAX action not any more
  • #139,083
  • Feb 9, 2016 9:45am Feb 9, 2016 9:45am
...Equities Bulls struggling on the opening range while Euro unlocking a further extension to the top of the mid term range 1.134x after knocking down the 1.13xx handle.

Imminent break down alerts!!! triggered in US equities and OIL for the rest of the session/week....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,084
  • Feb 9, 2016 11:44am Feb 9, 2016 11:44am
Europe going home with OIL as expected getting crushed -4.5% and counting after losing 30.1x in the european morning. US equities still hanging on the brink more in "when than if" for this session ....

Eyes still on US equities joining the party ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,085
  • Feb 9, 2016 11:51am Feb 9, 2016 11:51am
Quoting sisse
Europe going home with OIL as expected getting crushed -4.5% and counting after losing 30.1x in the european morning. US equities still hanging on the brink more in "when than if" for this session .... Eyes still on US equities joining the party .... sisse
Concerning oil, is oil now entering in the air zone? Already trading at 28.68. I realize there are different pricefeeds available so not sure if everybody has the same price. Sometimes I see people with price 30 while I have 28 e.g.... is this the difference between brent crude, wti, etc...?
  • #139,086
  • Feb 9, 2016 11:54am Feb 9, 2016 11:54am
sisse,

What I am not understanding is that OIL was alot lower $26.XX and ES (S&P) 180x and EU was not at this .134X level. Is it due to factoring in a NO RATE HIKE scenerio with it? I thought it was factored in and put us at the .114X handle. Didn't see .134X being there until some other levels played out of the MID TERM LEG.

I am not comfortable with my trade right now as I am concerned not even the .14XX, that seemed like an excellent position to be in for Shorts awhile back, may even be under attack if OIL and Equities go lower.
  • #139,087
  • Feb 9, 2016 12:07pm Feb 9, 2016 12:07pm
Quoting ExForX
{quote} Concerning oil, is oil now entering in the air zone? Already trading at 28.68. I realize there are different pricefeeds available so not sure if everybody has the same price. Sometimes I see people with price 30 while I have 28 e.g.... is this the difference between brent crude, wti, etc...?
Brent, Crude....you can trade spot or futures via CL....


Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, What I am not understanding is that OIL was alot lower $26.XX and EU was not at this .134X level. Is it due to factoring in a NO RATE HIKE scenario with it? ..
There is no 1:1 relation between OIL and Euro/USD so DONT pair level to level as it doesnt make any sense the comparison. The break down in OIL (on top of the own OIL underlying factors) is important for your trade because the Euro is serving as carry on equites collapsing worldwide. Meaning it's SCREAMING at you RISK off...

You are sitting on a really tricky trade management situation and thats because your TIMING was off (now after the fact is 100% proven) and you are paying the price of sitting in a instrument against an avalanche in the rest of the board .... I don't want to say more about this because is not fair given you are under the spotlight and your trade is suffering the HEAT of the move...

The sooner and stronger we break down in US equities , the best chances you will get to have a chance on that trade without getting stopped out ....equities grinding slowly down we'll just make the EURO keep extending painfully for you the highs ....

So very GL ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,088
  • Feb 9, 2016 12:57pm Feb 9, 2016 12:57pm
sisse,

Thanks for the info. Not encouraging but it is what it is. Its good for others to see this in play. I was looking for an entry at the .097X, .1080 and .114X handle not looking at more than a 300 pip move against my trade. It seemed to be a good place to position for the MID TERM LEG (1,100 pip move-.046X/.02XX)and believing we were in the last of the SHORT TERM LEG.

As sisse clearly referred to my TIMING being off as I needed to allow SMART Money to show me the way after the move to this level but I was afraid I would miss the move again and jumped on it. Thought I leveraged well enough for it; but, now am concerned.

I looked at OIL as a reference to RISK and money going into EU and GOLD. This is why I was concerned with Oil dropping but knowing OIL and EQUITIES have been lower and EU not at this level. This is what perplexed me.

Hopefully, US Equities will make a quick dip again and bounce back to allow my trade to survive.
  • #139,089
  • Feb 9, 2016 1:32pm Feb 9, 2016 1:32pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Thanks for the info. Not encouraging but it is what it is. Its good for others to see this in play. I was looking for an entry at the .097X, .1080 and .114X handle not looking at more than a 300 pip move against my trade. It seemed to be a good place to position for the MID TERM LEG (1,100 pip move-.046X/.02XX)and believing we were in the last of the SHORT TERM LEG. As sisse clearly referred to my TIMING being off as I needed to allow SMART Money to show me the way after the move to this level but I was afraid I would miss the move again...
I know it's not easy. But looking at your levels, .097X, .1080 and .114X, I don't think there's anything wrong with them per se. As is established, your timing is off. I'd prefer to wait for .1080 or higher before opening a position at .097X. So I'd wait for it to go back down. Instead, it kept going up, and now you have drawdown. The difference is, if you wait it out, you can open positions higher and the lower ones will get filled anyway on the way back down.

Try to trade with STOP orders instead. I guess it's from MD Alexander Elder's book, don't trade the ripples but the waves. And more importantly: let the market come to you. Stop orders is exactly that: let the market come to you. If you expect the mid term / long term to go down and the market goes up short time, don't worry, place your short stop orders and wait. If the market turns around you'll get filled. If it continues to go up, good news, your tickets just got cheaper. Hope it helps.
  • #139,090
  • Feb 9, 2016 1:46pm Feb 9, 2016 1:46pm
ExForX,

" The difference is, if you wait it out, you can open positions higher and the lower ones will get filled anyway on the way back down."

Yes, that makes more sense. Better strategy. Thanks!

I decided I would not miss the trade again when we were around the .0840 handle as I thought I missed the boat then. I have now seen how I really missed the boat and am not liking the ride to well. Hopefully, the EU retraces as this grind up is not comfortable.

However, I must say with sisse's MAP aligning perfectly on the News Flows, I felt fairly confident we would see the ext to .097X to start the MID TERM LEG. Didn't think I would see this EU rise. At the least I thought we would chop around the .10xx to .1200 handle.

Thanks for your input and goodluck.
  • #139,091
  • Feb 9, 2016 2:15pm Feb 9, 2016 2:15pm
A hammering in OIL with a fresh breach to the $27 handle but was shy by a handful of ticks to break the yearly lows. US equities fighting with everything on the arsenal to hold the lows and look as feeble as it has been all week.... Tracking closely the closing range ....

Quoting IMARICH1
..... Didn't think I would see this EU rise. At the least I thought we would chop around the .10xx to .1200 handle. Thanks for your input and goodluck.
Let me ask you a question, without taking anything else in the analysis, what would you think are the odds that the current levels (breach to the the 1.13xx) being just a wick in the Euro Weekly candle?.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,092
  • Edited 3:05pm Feb 9, 2016 2:51pm | Edited 3:05pm
"what would you think are the odds that the current levels (breach to the the 1.13xx) being just a wick in the Euro Weekly candle?."

Oh boy, the wise professor asking the idiot pupil. I would say that the odds are HIGH it could be just a WICK in the weekly candle considering the WEEKLY CHART shows lots of Weekly candles with wicks and this Weekly Candle level could be close to the ending of the SHORT TERM LEG. However, .1245 was just a WICK last week and here we are at .1345 not to mention all that compression(accumulation)for the last 6 weeks or so in the .10XX to .07XX range which propelled us up and not down (however, I understand why based on OIL and EQUITIES).

EDIT: I was told (Inst. Trader) whatever the compression amount (300 pips here .10 to .07) that the breakout would go at least that amount which is where we are at. Sorry, you didn't want much analysis.

What are the odds of .1478 being a wick on the Weekly Candle as well? That's my concern. I have probably really embarrassed myself here.
  • #139,093
  • Feb 9, 2016 3:06pm Feb 9, 2016 3:06pm
Quoting Likerty
{quote} Movement is finished. Now the correction towards 119.40 or/and 122.0x starts to gather pace.. Intraday 114.90's or 114.60's for bullish rejections and 115.20 is a sneaky line in the sand for bull continuation
Interesting developements this week. Looks like upcoming USD-bull correction against majors may end up as the begining of the new end..
Gold is pointing to 1130 and U/J for 119.40 as min targets, but may extend towards 1090's and 122.00 respectively. Inability to reverse in one of these will open multi year highs/lows for all of them..
E/U 1.1320;s is a decision area for more towards 1.1390/1.600 or rejection to test 1.1130's. Major technicals awaits far away in a 1.0925/62 area so choppiness in between is likely. Inability to hold 1.120x/190 will open 1.1135. Another play for bull continuation is at 1.1060's.
E/U shorts at this point have a chance for 0.89 eventually
69
  • #139,094
  • Feb 9, 2016 3:11pm Feb 9, 2016 3:11pm
sorry to interrupt guys, just looking at the daily chart the chances of wick on weekly is not that high but anything may happen...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eu.png Size: 34 KB
As Above, So Below
  • #139,095
  • Feb 9, 2016 3:23pm Feb 9, 2016 3:23pm
US Equities like yesterday held by the tick but held at the end and are literally holding the whole world for a break down of major proportions. Markets in desperate need for positive numbers from anywhere but a light week on the report side will guarantee hyper sensitive markets.

All major markets in breaks today except in US equities clearly signalling the 'meat' of the moves are gone....actively managing trades at these levels but for now not much to do here with same levels, same plays same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,096
  • Feb 9, 2016 4:02pm Feb 9, 2016 4:02pm
Quoting sisse
US Equities like yesterday held by the tick but held at the end and are literally holding the whole world for a break down of major proportions. Markets in desperate need for positive numbers from anywhere ....
JY better make soft cooing noises tomorrow. Otherwise, oil is waiting for a kind word from the big dogs of OPEC, no reason to expect it....yet...
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,097
  • Feb 9, 2016 4:05pm Feb 9, 2016 4:05pm
...and we are rolling 1.129x with Euro entering in major resistance area in the mid term range...

Quoting IMARICH1
What are the odds of .1478 being a wick on the Weekly Candle as well? That's my concern. I have probably really embarrassed myself here.
.
Well there you have your answer... if you think is going to be a wick either at 1.1134x or 1.147x or at 2.xx!!!! stop tracking the inner moves in between and revaluate your position on the W close at the earliest. By then market will have answer your question or if you were completely wrong your stops will be taken out.

Don't sweet it TA wise. If you made a decision and trust your analysis and have a proper risk management, sit tight and let it pan out. You are not going to gain anything trying to outguess the inner moves when you are looking way way way beyond the current short term leg...

--> Look you are trading too far from what you are tracking in your chart thats why your timing has been poor. I have mentioned 100 times to you. Go back to some of the post on direction and mapping a trade.

You are trying to trade your direction chart instead of trading the legs that form the direction of the map.

The trade you are calling (right or wrong is irrelevant) is a mid term play (weeks to months to play out!!!!!) we just closed the 1st !!!!!!!!!!!!!!! M candle last week ... it can take as late as late Q2/Q3 to complete your main leg without invalidating your map !!!!!....thats a hell a lot of time if you don't know what you are doing so tracking a couple of daily candles in between its just out of range for your trade !!!!....

--> My point is and I have mentioned many times. DEFINE YOUR DIRECTION !!!!!! in whatever TF you feel is right for you and only then move down and trade the inner ebb and flows that goes with the DIRECTION you DEFINED.

For the sake of the argument, fade the daily highs from tomorrow until German GDP (only schedule news in play) and let see if that would have made a difference in the drawdown or gains to your mid term trade (assuming for this example you are just looking for positioning for the first time with the weekly close)...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,098
  • Feb 10, 2016 4:35am Feb 10, 2016 4:35am
European equites finding foot with manufacturing numbers collapsing across the continent...ECB +QE here we come and no hikes BOE here it goes for the near future....

Eyes on OIL today and Yellen disappointing saying 'nothing new'. Euro losing 1.128x rather quickly, failure to take it back this afternoon will be enough to cut the wings on the flying bulls but for now nothing new there keeping short term outlook neutral until further data this week....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,099
  • Feb 10, 2016 4:53am Feb 10, 2016 4:53am
On E/U:

the short term map looks very clear - we have (see chart) these lvls from down to up = 1,108x (blue) - 1,114x (orange) - 1,121x (orange) - 1,128x (red) - 1,134x (orange) --- the price has been going up lvl by lvl as a form of the ending part of the short term post-FED leg-up - Black vertical like is time of Yellen testimony.

What to expect? =) 1,121 is lvl to go as a decision platform for Yellen. What after yellen? I expect her to be mostly dovish/cautious and send us again to 1,134 - that lvl as final lvl of short term swing was not properly reached.

In case the 1,134 lvl is reached and holds and equities will not be catched in another mayhem (possible as oil is set to break the lows) - I would consider the recent short term leg up to be finished === I will be looking for a short term swing down (=fading 1,134x) to walk the same exact lvls down!

How can the short term leg look? See chart 3: second vertical like represents German macro numbers. If there is chance to fade 1,134x after yellen = prepositioning for the German numbers as a trigger of the flows of the short term leg down.

On !mid term!: the blue 1,108 + red 1,128 are also the important levels for mid term swing down! As there is the discussion about the TIMING of the entry for the mid term leg. This is what I would suggest even though it may be completely wrong.

For the leg to evolve we need the oil/equities and most importnatly China to be clear so the unwinding of carry trade and risk off does not weight on the price - that can happen next week the earliest!!

Therefore the circles on the chart suggests the point to enter - the exact lvl is gonna be detrmined by the force of the short term swing down (depends if german macros can give us a hand) - therefore the price lvl is not so importnat - the time axis is! For now its situated into the middle of next week.

I mean: someone could fade the 1,134 lvl as a mid term down entry BUT ---- that would be considered agressive as the clouds are still here. Therefore I would suggest to position for short term swing down and wait for the second conservative entry (as suggested by chart 2) once the play is clearer.

Any comments on lvl, timing or anything are welcomed!!!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot5.png Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot7.png Size: 23 KB
  • #139,100
  • Edited 5:59am Feb 10, 2016 5:38am | Edited 5:59am
OK, Ive been thinking more about this and I think there is a mistake in my analysis when it comes to timing and the wave structure!!! I keep the old post in case anyone wants to see where this comes from and where its heading. Sorry for the length!!!

Here is what I wanna correct:

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On E/U:

For the leg to evolve we need the oil/equities and most importnatly China to be clear so the unwinding of carry trade and risk off does not weight on the price - that can happen next week the earliest!!

Therefore the circles on the chart suggests the point to enter - the exact lvl is gonna be detrmined by the force of the short term swing down (depends if german macros can give us a hand) - therefore the price lvl is not so importnat - the time axis is! For now its situated into the middle of next week.

I mean: someone could fade the 1,134 lvl as a mid term down entry BUT ---- that would be considered agressive as the clouds are still here. Therefore I would suggest to position for short term swing down and wait for the second conservative entry (as suggested by chart 2) once the play is clearer.

I suggested those conservative point entries for the mid term leg but they are confused with the middle of the short term leg down. Therefore once again:

Chart one: FA: cautious yellen + german GDP gives hand + the risk off/on gonna determine the structure =) the circes show place to enter SHORT term: 1,134 (upper circle) as a prepositiong (= cheap ticket), other circles as a possible place to jump in for the rest of the short term but NOT for the mid term!

Chart two: shows possible entry point for the mid term: upper circle = identical with short term swing prepositiong (= cheap ticket mid term)!! And the other points are short term swing retraces of the short term swing down - so for mid term we enter at their termination!!! And definitely not in the middle of the next short term leg down as suggested in 1st post!!

So basically the mistake was in confusing the swings and making all the mess!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot2.png Size: 27 KB
19 traders viewing now