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  • #1,055,461
  • Feb 9, 2016 11:13pm Feb 9, 2016 11:13pm
Quoting GoldNugget
Shorted the euro from this point on,though we still have some strong bullish medium term momentum going. Yellen will most likely be dovish about her testimony,can't risk another rate increase with all these banks and companies struggling to make ends meet in the credit market.
Yellen already regretted most likely
Thousands already have their 401k shrunk by 25% and oil showing no bottom dragging everything down.
Its real bad.Her timing was bad.She might have just started global recession.
This is really unsettling feeling that Euro is refusing to go down.It just feels inside info among price movers.
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,055,462
  • Feb 10, 2016 12:31am Feb 10, 2016 12:31am
gbp (cable getting very compressed on 4hr, between 200 & 50 sma would have wary eyeball for a decent push north if she can 1st break the 200sma then previous 4hr or daily highs:nerd:stuck_out_tongue_winking_eye:resently possible target 4935
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #1,055,463
  • Feb 10, 2016 12:34am Feb 10, 2016 12:34am
So we got back to the interesting levels.
My third eye (which is not my bunhole, or maybe it is. lol) is telling me this baby gone far enough.
I'm looking for a final push towards .14 max .15 The spike from july at .17 imo will still be a lonely peak for some time now. If this year old TL will hold i'm looking for a fade back to a decent .12ish maybe even .11

Sometimes after looking at the same data day in day out i feel like i'm getting used to one way and only focus on it (very bad for fx) so i set a black line chart with no bias just price levels where you can clearly see that the market takes them into account.

So bottom line. getting ready to short it close to .14ish with stops above .15 and tps between .11 & .12
good luck all
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: EURUSDH01febB.png Size: 39 KB
  • #1,055,464
  • Feb 10, 2016 12:34am Feb 10, 2016 12:34am
Quoting Davit
Hi guys I am a fundemetal trader but this Euro upthrust move to 1280 is in light of ECB possible negative rates acts contrary. Instead of going south 108 or even lower this shit is keep going up. Maybe Yellen has something to say...tomorrow but still.Anyway I am little bit perplexed. Euro crosses EC EA were and are on steroids still... This is the part of trading where I must admit I have no clue as to why other then assuming big banks are ripping stops
Hi Davit,

No need to be perplexed if you are a fundamental trader. One of the leading textbooks on international trade (K-O) offers this explanation in the appendix of chapter 15: The standard monetary theory says following a rate rise (in this case by the Fed) the currency will rise for the usual reasons (higher returns on deposits) and that's what everyone is banging on about here. However, because of the Fisher effect it can also weaken. One needs to know the reason for the interest rate rise. If it rose because of higher expected inflation (which Yellen have been arguing and the recent NFP data such as the healthy average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, the unemployment rate ticking down to 4.9% suggests) then (from wikipedia):

"The hypothesis specifically states that a spot exchange rate is expected to change equally in the opposite direction of the interest rate differential; thus, the currency of the country with the higher nominal interest rate is expected to depreciate against the currency of the country with the lower nominal interest rate, as higher nominal interest rates reflect an expectation of inflation."

HTH.
  • #1,055,465
  • Feb 10, 2016 12:40am Feb 10, 2016 12:40am
Quoting KiwiTrada
gbp (cable getting very compressed on 4hr, between 200 & 50 sma would have wary eyeball for a decent push north if she can 1st break the 200sma then previous 4hr or daily highs:nerd:presently possible target 4935
this is exactly my play :nerd:

not looking at MAs thou, more like USD weakness so, lets see news for GBP to launch or fold
  • #1,055,466
  • Feb 10, 2016 12:44am Feb 10, 2016 12:44am
Quoting Davit
{quote} Yellen already regretted most likely Thousands already have their 401k shrunk by 25% and oil showing no bottom dragging everything down. Its real bad.Her timing was bad.She might have just started global recession. This is really unsettling feeling that Euro is refusing to go down.It just feels inside info among price movers.
Yes man great post albeit the depressing sentiment. I think that is why the EURUSD has rallied like crazy is because everyone pilling in because they know CB in a corner and FED fucked it up. I also think though however the long term fundamentals do not support EURUSD to go higher however we shall see.
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #1,055,467
  • Feb 10, 2016 12:56am Feb 10, 2016 12:56am
what's the session hold for the Aussie usd any ideas???
  • #1,055,468
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:00am Feb 10, 2016 1:00am
Quoting 21vs7
{quote} this is exactly my play :nerd: not looking at MAs thou, more like USD weakness so, lets see news for GBP to launch or fold
while yuan is sleeping, is the witching hour, 4935 is still bearish monthly even 5413 still bearish, however she has been flirting with some major monthly lows *2008 and 2000 which deserve respect, question remains will brit housing bubble burst before or after USD collapse, getting that one right should pay off handsomely :nerd:
If you are new to Forex? Say Goodbye to your account!!
  • #1,055,469
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:01am Feb 10, 2016 1:01am
Quoting Rtm
{quote} Yes man great post albeit the depressing sentiment. I think that is why the EURUSD has rallied like crazy is because everyone pilling in because they know CB in a corner and FED fucked it up. I also think though however the long term fundamentals do not support EURUSD to go higher however we shall see.
Hi buddy
I am short on EC but as you know its no sure thing.This has already overdone itself but one never knows.
EC EA EN all are overbought using this terminology loosely based on fib ratios.
It will be hard for Yellen to defend her decision on rate hike.So far global market meltdowns are unsettling.Oil stability is key factor to settle the markets but as you know OPEC is refusing to cut production.Anyway lets hope for the best
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,055,470
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:04am Feb 10, 2016 1:04am
Quoting buaksam
{quote} Hi Davit, No need to be perplexed if you are a fundamental trader. One of the leading textbooks on international trade (K-O) offers this explanation in the appendix of chapter 15: The standard monetary theory says following a rate rise (in this case by the Fed) the currency will rise for the usual reasons (higher returns on deposits) and that's what everyone is banging on about here. However, because of the Fisher effect it can also weaken. One needs to know the reason for the interest rate rise. If it rose because of higher expected inflation...
It also goes to show how much as a trader you need to stay on top of everything.

Some (like me) who are focusing more/weighing more on the european side of things expect EURUSD to drop a lot. Others following the US side closer/weighing it more, expected the rise.
It's kind of like a tug of war right now Both sides are dropping ..it's just a case of which one's dropping faster (a look at both EUR/CHF and USD/CHF will clear things up)

Obviously, once one stabilizes the fallout will be ...interesting to say the least
  • #1,055,471
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:07am Feb 10, 2016 1:07am
out of all commodity pairs EA looks most promising.Notice 100% fib turning zone.To bad I am already committed on EC
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,055,472
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:08am Feb 10, 2016 1:08am
I got 15min 30 min and 1hr timeframe signal as sell. 4hr buy signal. Therefore short for now looking for 1.127xx
  • #1,055,473
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:10am Feb 10, 2016 1:10am
Quoting KiwiTrada
{quote} while yuan is sleeping, is the witching hour, 4935 is still bearish monthly even 5413 still bearish, however she has been flirting with some major monthly lows *2008 and 2000 which deserve respect, question remains will brit housing bubble burst before or after USD collapse, getting that one right should pay off handsomely :nerd:
im not really in fundies to say the least. cant really predict and do some science research on this part - actually to much noise/work in that department so skipping that. Same goes on support and resistance department. cant really trust that part. probably around 50% of a break eh

just seeing some USD weakness and with GBPxxx posibility of bouncing in the next steps.. we could have strong movement up towards your numbers. Yes, if that wont go thru ill fold it. 456x first probably defender down to 4320s
  • #1,055,474
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:18am Feb 10, 2016 1:18am
Dont be surprised to see 1.12 today. Looking bearish the euro
  • #1,055,475
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:20am Feb 10, 2016 1:20am
What do you guys think about yellen speech.

Yesterday there was new about Jolt vacatures.
They where verry good.

Actual
5.607M

Forecast
5.400M

Previous
5.346M

I mean economic they are verry strong.

I think we see another leg down in euro dollar.

Will i be safe with a stop at 1.17?
  • #1,055,476
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:24am Feb 10, 2016 1:24am
Good morning from London.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record I have a question. Is there something similar to FFs Trade Explorer to use MetaTrader 5? I've tried installing the MyFxBook EA but as I'm working on a Mac this doesn't sit well.

Thanks in advance.
Focus.
  • #1,055,477
  • Edited 1:39am Feb 10, 2016 1:29am | Edited 1:39am
Quoting 3Davy
What do you guys think about yellen speech. Yesterday there was new about Jolt vacatures. They where verry good. Actual 5.607M Forecast 5.400M Previous 5.346M I mean economic they are verry strong. I think we see another leg down in euro dollar. Will i be safe with a stop at 1.17?
117 is way to far.I would most put stop at 115
even though I don't think Euro fundies call for that much appreciation.Overall US economy is doing better then most but we are in global market.Should China really go down entire global economies will go into recession.They are signs that we are heading that way.
While this is unsettling I think we are in deeper contraction cyclic movement and the end could take a decade.
Cheap money funneling Wall street is over.
Its interesting that neither Democrats or Republicans want to address our spending
Republicans want to pay 800million dollar a piece fighter jet and pump the military without regard the cost and democrats want to expend government and have government pay more social services free education (Sanders) etc.
Neither parties are conservative.Its rather sad situation how far we have strayed from our founding fathers.
regards
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #1,055,478
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:31am Feb 10, 2016 1:31am
These days price was too predictable and our "brokers" or game providers lost some money. Today I'm expecting a lot of heavy ranging or sudden movements in both directions. Maybe its better to stay aside until Yellen
  • #1,055,479
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:47am Feb 10, 2016 1:47am
Quoting Marco-Kanto
Good morning from London. At the risk of sounding like a broken record I have a question. Is there something similar to FFs Trade Explorer to use MetaTrader 5? I've tried installing the MyFxBook EA but as I'm working on a Mac this doesn't sit well. Thanks in advance.
did you try FXBLUE? If all else fails maybe have to look for a EA in MQL5 that provide a detail analysis for you
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #1,055,480
  • Feb 10, 2016 1:47am Feb 10, 2016 1:47am
Quoting giveachance
Dont be surprised to see 1.12 today. Looking bearish the euro
I hope you are wirght.

Back to 1.10 ore below i hope.
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