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  • #65,621
  • Feb 9, 2016 4:37am Feb 9, 2016 4:37am
Quoting Scrambleguy
{quote} ​Thank you Emm, If I wanted to trade the 1h tf, would I just adjust the above analysis down 1 TF?
Hi Scrambleguy

Yes you can but if you are newbie Big Emm always recommend to trade 4hrs up & also how nice to enter 1hr chart to catch weekly trend.

Cheers
  • #65,622
  • Feb 9, 2016 5:18am Feb 9, 2016 5:18am
Quoting Scrambleguy
{quote} ​Thank you Emm, If I wanted to trade the 1h tf, would I just adjust the above analysis down 1 TF?

Hi Scramble,

To be a full time trader and be able to trade for a regular income ( not trade for a living) you must be able to trade 3 system using this same 5-Method.
You use the same top down analysis aka Big Picture Plan BPP. You must be able to trade H1 intraday, 4H swing trading and D1 Position trading with the same 5-Method and same BPP.

H1 is intraday trading. You can trade both ways, buy and sell within the same day. H1 trading means you have to be available 3 to 4 hours to manage your trade manually. You must have specific trading hours. I used to trade the first 3 to 4 hours when Tokyo open and grab 15 to 20 pips during this usually low volatility period except on days when there are news out of Australia and Japan. To trade the London session, you have to be available from Frankfurt open till before New York Open.
Trading intraday day means you are taking very short term trades and trades should be closed within the same market session and not held overnight. I see members trading lower TF and hold their trades for many days and even over weekend, hoping and waiting for their trades to go in their favour. If you want to hold H1 trades overnight, your trades must be converted to H4 or D1 trades and manage as H4 or D1 trades.
You need market knowledge, trading experience and trading skills. In the absence of these skills, you rely on luck and it doesn't come often. You will blow many trading accounts when you rely on luck.

I mentioned before, you can trade H1, H4 and D1 but you need different trading accounts so that you can keep track of each system and your performance. Then only you will know which TF /system is more profitable for you over a longer term. When you mix all different trades in one same account, you won't know which TF/system perform better and its financial targets.

Start with H4 and D1 and when you have reach and maintain consistent results, you can add H1 at later time. Start small, 10% profit target every 20 trading days (not month) is achievable but you need a clear written down trading business plan.

regards,
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #65,623
  • Feb 9, 2016 5:27am Feb 9, 2016 5:27am
Quoting tibovwh
{quote} Well, not directly but to calculate the position size we need to have a SL so it sounded like we use the 0.5*ADR as SL per entry. But the pictures from AJ make things somewhat clearer already. Hopefully you can find a retracement soon which will answer my questions even better! Best,

Did you hear this before:

Risk too much and you could blow up your account.
Risk too little and a big winner won’t even pay for your dinner.

How do you decide how much you should risk on your next trade?
Position sizing does not mean looking at entry, stop loss and decided on the trade position size.
Position Sizing strategies means we have to be innovative how we use our money when we trade.

You need to pay me tuition money first before I reveal some proprietary stuff to you.

Be patient, look at my live trades posted and updated here.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #65,624
  • Feb 9, 2016 5:37am Feb 9, 2016 5:37am
Hi Emmanuel

Ucad daily chart
1. Can we consider reversal if price breakout red line or have to be blue line?
This was my study from your post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post8736468
2. Should we enter if TDI does cross not at 68 level after No.1 breakout?

Best regards,
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  • #65,625
  • Feb 9, 2016 5:58am Feb 9, 2016 5:58am
Quoting pete.alfa
Hi Emmanuel Ucad daily chart 1. Can we consider reversal if price breakout red line or have to be blue line? This was my study from your post http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...68#post8736468 2. Should we enter if TDI does cross not at 68 level after No.1 breakout? Best regards, {image}

Hi Pete,

For me, I want to see price action move above last month's close for continuation buying. Until that happens, it will be only small trades in H4.
Right now, D1 looks sideways in that big candle range.
Be very patient with this one.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD Week 06 BPP.png Size: 95 KB


Trade Well.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #65,626
  • Feb 9, 2016 6:14am Feb 9, 2016 6:14am
Quoting emmanuel7788
EURAUD H1 LO+1 hour. {image} LO=London Open

EURAUD H1 trade to D1

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD 9 Feb H1 to D1 trade.png Size: 45 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #65,627
  • Feb 9, 2016 6:27am Feb 9, 2016 6:27am
Quoting Scrambleguy
{quote} ​Can you confirm you entry was the 9 am candle an hour after the LO open please?
Hi Scramble, yes my first entry was one hour after LO at 9am UK time.
Focus on the process and the profits will follow
  • #65,628
  • Edited 11:51am Feb 9, 2016 7:26am | Edited 11:51am
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Hi Folks, started a new ME/ME basket yesterday. since there was no deep retracement yesterday, there was no opportunity to add multiple entries ME trades and build up this position to full risk. I took profit +100pips @0.2% risk, and re-enter a trade for a new position. let's see if tere will be retracement today for me to add some ME trades. {image} trade well folks,

Emmanuel :

First of all, Thanks for your prev. explanation and PM about the thing I asked.

For AJ pair, why would you use 400 pips of SL instead of last swing high/low , 2xADR(100 days) or 2-days look back for your SL ?
is it because of yesterday's high volatility so 400 pips away from the initial entry would be safe for building position?

and also what exactly is Initial SL or Hard SL ?

Best regards,


mousteven
  • #65,629
  • Feb 9, 2016 12:08pm Feb 9, 2016 12:08pm
Quoting mousteven
{quote} Emmanuel : First of all, Thanks for your prev. explanation and PM about the thing I asked. For AJ pair, why would you use 400 pips of SL instead of last swing high/low , 2xADR(100 days) or 2-days look back for your SL ? is it because of yesterday's high volatility so 400 pips away from the initial entry would be safe for building position? and also what exactly is Initial SL or Hard SL ? Best regards, mousteven

Putting a Hard Stop Loss for all your trades in your broker' server is to save your account from being closed in events like Black Thursday.


Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #65,630
  • Feb 9, 2016 12:23pm Feb 9, 2016 12:23pm
EURAUD

BEFORE:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD 9 Feb H1 to D1 trade.png Size: 45 KB


AFTER:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURAUD 9Feb H1 intraday players.png Size: 45 KB


did someone missed the first H1 setup?
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #65,631
  • Feb 9, 2016 12:36pm Feb 9, 2016 12:36pm
Quoting mousteven
{quote} Emmanuel : First of all, Thanks for your prev. explanation and PM about the thing I asked. For AJ pair, why would you use 400 pips of SL instead of last swing high/low , 2xADR(100 days) or 2-days look back for your SL ? is it because of yesterday's high volatility so 400 pips away from the initial entry would be safe for building position? and also what exactly is Initial SL or Hard SL ? Best regards, mousteven

what is Initial SL?

Example with XAUUSD

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Example R and R-Multiple.png Size: 31 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #65,632
  • Feb 9, 2016 12:41pm Feb 9, 2016 12:41pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} XAUUSD hit 1168. and now our next target levels ... can take days.... buy, build and hold {image}

XAUUSD - the next candle which close above 1206 will be one big candle...

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: XAUUSD Week 06 next level 1206.png Size: 51 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #65,633
  • Feb 9, 2016 12:54pm Feb 9, 2016 12:54pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} AUDJPY ME/ME trades update 9 Feb: Took another +100 pips @0.2% as price broke lower this when Tokyo open. Happened too fast, hit my TP and I re-enter late. Again there was no retracement to add-on trades for ME build position. {image}

AUDJPY ME/ME trades update_2 10 Feb:

so far taken 400pips profits.

we had some retracement today so it was possible to add ME trades at 0.5ADR distance.

shown here in H4 for better clarity where the entries were.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY Week 06 D1 chart trades 9Feb update 2.png Size: 48 KB
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #65,634
  • Feb 9, 2016 1:42pm Feb 9, 2016 1:42pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} Did you hear this before: Risk too much and you could blow up your account. Risk too little and a big winner wont even pay for your dinner. How do you decide how much you should risk on your next trade? Position sizing does not mean looking at entry, stop loss and decided on the trade position size. Position Sizing strategies means we have to be innovative how we use our money when we trade. You need to pay me tuition money first before I reveal some proprietary stuff to you. Be patient, look at my live trades posted and updated here.
Hehe. I understand. I'm paying my tuition every day in terms in time spent. You can ask my girlfriend Maybe I need to be more efficient

I still have a couple of months to design clear cut D1 rules before I have a full time job. But i'm confident and patient that results will follow

Now, I think that to calculate any position size we will need 3 things: Pipvalue - Money risked - pips to SL. If we want to risk 100 on this position we can only trade 0.03 lot. The calculations are straightforward.

I read a bit of Van Tharp and one thing I learned is volatility-based position sizing. But I have a problem with this approach, namely when to cut losses. Because when we calculate position sizes based on volatility (i.e. 0.2% of equity) than we risk more than our 0.2% of equity with our 400pips SL.

Lets say we have 10.000 and risk 0.2% (=20) for every entry (0.5*120pips = 60pips apart) we calculate position size based on ATR(100) of 120 pips then we trade 0.02 lots per entry (= fixed). When we built our 5 positions (=1% risk = 100) then we have a better average entry of 150 pips so our 2 week lookback SL is still 250 pips away. So with 0.10 lots in total and SL 250 pips away we risk 192 (nearly 2%) while our 1% risk is 130 pips away. I don't know if anyone understands what I am saying really it's a bit hard to explain textually. Do you use this 400p stoploss but cut losses when it goes 1% against you? (i.e. 280 pips)

I can see this approach is powerful. We trade 3 times bigger lot with a much better entry price. However, when it doesn't retrace this much the calculations become even harder because than we need to keep track of how much profit we locked in earlier. And the most important part I think is when to exit with a position in profit. This is the only action that will make us money.

I wrote this post just to put some things on paper and to think about this conceptually. I'm looking forward to more live examples!

Best,
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #65,635
  • Feb 9, 2016 1:50pm Feb 9, 2016 1:50pm
Quoting emmanuel7788
{quote} AUDJPY ME/ME trades update_2 10 Feb: so far taken 400pips profits. we had some retracement today so it was possible to add ME trades at 0.5ADR distance. shown here in H4 for better clarity where the entries were. {image}
This trade is going well!

Am I correct when I say that you now have 0.8% risked in this position? The first re-entries 0.2% and than you added once (+0.2%) then another re-entry and now 2 more entries (+0.4%). So you will build one more position when price goes above 82.15?

You used ATR(100)=120 to calculate lotsize of every entry? Your SL seems to be 400 pips away from the average entry still so am I right that you risk more than 0.8% (or 1% if you added the last lot)? Or am I seeing this wrong?

Best,
  • #65,636
  • Feb 9, 2016 2:01pm Feb 9, 2016 2:01pm
Hi to all
My trade today (I use fix tp in h1)
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  • #65,637
  • Edited 8:12pm Feb 9, 2016 7:58pm | Edited 8:12pm
Emmanuel
looking at the higher time frames for the AJ, it would seem that there is still bearish momentum.
Building positions on retracements in this case could be possible? seems free space down to 79.350 level
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDJPY D W M.JPG Size: 115 KB
By failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail - Benjamin Franklin
  • #65,638
  • Feb 9, 2016 8:06pm Feb 9, 2016 8:06pm
Quoting Downunder
Emmanuel looking at the higher time frames for the AJ, it would seem that there is still bearish momentum. Building positions on retracements in this case could be possible? seems free space down to 79.200 level

Hi,

yes, technically we see bearish momentum.
and with the current stock market conditions, investors are flocking to safe haven currencies.
so shorting the JPY pairs make sense for a while more until we see some support.
keep ears on the ground for BoJ action anytime.

regards,

Edit: we are still in BUILD phase, then when she drop between 79 and 76 is where we can 'let profits run'
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #65,639
  • Feb 9, 2016 8:22pm Feb 9, 2016 8:22pm
Quoting tibovwh
{quote} This trade is going well! Am I correct when I say that you now have 0.8% risked in this position? The first re-entries 0.2% and than you added once (+0.2%) then another re-entry and now 2 more entries (+0.4%). So you will build one more position when price goes above 82.15? You used ATR(100)=120 to calculate lotsize of every entry? Your SL seems to be 400 pips away from the average entry still so am I right that you risk more than 0.8% (or 1% if you added the last lot)? Or am I seeing this wrong? Best,

the 400 pips is hard SL and it was based on the first position open on Monday. the last swing high on Monday open.
after that, it will remain as 400pips SL which follows the average entry price of several open trades. this is not the cut loss level. the cut loss is before that 400pips.

the TP is 100pips from the average entry price and this one thing which I keep track of all the time. I change this when there is need to.

the trade lot size is based on using ADR(100 days). the is one variable which you do not see on my chart. it is based on trade history statistics.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
  • #65,640
  • Feb 9, 2016 8:27pm Feb 9, 2016 8:27pm
Quoting tibovwh
{quote} Hehe. I understand. I'm paying my tuition every day in terms in time spent. You can ask my girlfriend Maybe I need to be more efficient I still have a couple of months to design clear cut D1 rules before I have a full time job. But i'm confident and patient that results will follow Now, I think that to calculate any position size we will need 3 things: Pipvalue - Money risked - pips to SL. If we want to risk 100 on this position we can only trade 0.03 lot. The calculations are straightforward. I read a bit of Van Tharp and one...

you are taking lots of notes. this is very good and exactly what I did for almost 2 years when I was introduced to this ME/ME money management strategy.
to be exact I spend 18 months, learning this and practicing in live market with a demo account. done lots of live demo trades and learn it the hard way.
then went live after that. it has been 7 years since.
be patient, start doing this with demo account in live market.

you need to find work-life balance and your girlfriend will one day be your wife and she will love you when you succeed in this business.
Honesty is a very expensive gift. You wont find it in cheap people.WBuffett
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