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The Really Useless Thread

  • #139,041
  • Feb 8, 2016 7:23am Feb 8, 2016 7:23am
Quoting sisse
{quote} 1.121x [check] as expected is the flip for the flows. Inline or better unlock a quick test 1.114x [check]-> 1.108x [check]-> 1.097x. .

Right on time for NY. Euro testing 1.114x. Simple trade so far but this is the area for any real move beyond the basic and obvious initial flow ... sisse
....and I will take that on the EURO. Clearing main target from the NFP play on the test 1.108x....

More importantly European equities getting hammered this morning as expected since the close on Friday with DAX ticking below 9000.xx. Macro panic alerts triggered across the board for NY. Like usual in these circumstances US equities playing ball today opens a massacre in Equities worldwide but for now a super active European session over till NY...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,042
  • Feb 8, 2016 8:42am Feb 8, 2016 8:42am
This is escalating quickly! Gold crashed into very strong mid term resistence lvl in no time = 1190; risk-off in full motion. Unless NY is setting a bear trap its gonna be very interesing
  • #139,043
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:22am Feb 8, 2016 10:22am
What is happening? Any news, any insights?
  • #139,044
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:39am Feb 8, 2016 10:39am
Quoting thatguy22
What is happening? Any news, any insights?
not sure what u mean by insight.... but the moves are kind of clear.... equities in chaos - they been technically pointing to it for some time - and the rest - currencies/bonds/gold - moving as a collateral. only oil so far refusing to join the party as its technically holding the S-H-S pattern on H4

anyways Im kind of stating the obvious
  • #139,045
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:54am Feb 8, 2016 10:54am
Quoting chester123
{quote} not sure what u mean by insight.... but the moves are kind of clear.... equities in chaos - they been technically pointing to it for some time - and the rest - currencies/bonds/gold - moving as a collateral. only oil so far refusing to join the party as its technically holding the S-H-S pattern on H4 anyways Im kind of stating the obvious
I'm finding it difficult to find the right correlations between currencies, equities and gold these days. Especially DAX falling and € gaining power.
  • #139,046
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:59am Feb 8, 2016 10:59am
Superb day across the board... US equities also lost foot on the opening range triggering a massacre in equities worldwide except in China that is on holidays so we can expect this move will be far from over and the reaction there after they come back will have some extensive legs ....

Europe going home falling down the cliff and there is a lot of air and very little in between at these levels (DAX 873x.x ref). US in full control. Expecting REAL money to step in one more time in the US afternoon session otherwise tighten your seatbelt as we are going for the first < -6% day in Equities since the financial crisis ....

Quoting chester123
....only oil so far refusing
US equities already lost soft floor today but the yearly lows are still holding not like in Europe. However, OIL is struggling a LOT and 29.5x WONT hold another test. All eyes on 30.1x for the close today. Losing the $30.xx handle unlocks the lows to complete the leg 25.9x in a rather fast move.... The move looks 'unavoidable' now without a last minute tweet from OPEC ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,047
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:00am Feb 8, 2016 11:00am
E/u
We are going higher and taking a north direction for a couple of months .. Atleast for me with a handsome support @.083x and .109x .. One way or other bastards again did what they always use to do... Screw the small fishes ... And guess what I missed the train its going without me ... .114x ... Will also become a very good support in the couple of weeks.... Just tracking closely for a good entry..
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,048
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:21am Feb 8, 2016 11:21am
Quoting primejarvis
E/u We are going higher and taking a north direction for a couple of months .. Atleast for me with a handsome support @.083x and .109x .. One way or other bastards again did what they always use to do... Screw the small fishes ... And guess what I missed the train its going without me ... .114x ... Will also become a very good support in the couple of weeks.... Just tracking closely for a good entry..
You are looking at the wrong market right now. There is 'nothing to see' in the Euro today. We are witnessing MAJOR!!!! risk moves in Equities and commodities across the world....Euro/USD inherit TA and FA reasons are 'irrelevant' in the current session(s) as its and will ONLY move as collateral of the HUGE MACRO moves happening across the board.

My 2 cents, at least until the initial storm pass, raise/forget about your micro levels in the Euro. 1.114x is the only one to track for the roll and prolly till German numbers later this week ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,049
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:36am Feb 8, 2016 11:36am
Quoting sisse
Here we go for NFP.... [...] --> For the actual flows: 1.121x as expected is the flip for the flows. Inline or better unlock a quick test 1.114x -> 1.108x -> 1.097x. To the other side is just a soft (not tradable in my case) to 1.128x to kill the week in the highs... Cheap tickets available for those on the mid term ride with the 'right news' ...for the rest soft positions for the news play.... GL all sisse
Hello Sisse,

I read you played the short term leg 1.121x->1.108x through the solid NFP report but did you also take a mid term position at these levels ?

If you did, are you still holding them or did you drop them because of the break on equities ? Your target on Dax (that I found very low according to my map on Cac 3880/3925 ext 3600) may send eurusd briefly to 1.15xx or even maybe to August highs 1.17xx ? So holding mid term shorts may not be appropriate at the moment, even with ECB hammer coming in one month ...? Thanks for all your posts.
  • #139,050
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:39am Feb 8, 2016 11:39am
Quoting sisse
{quote} You are looking at the wrong market right now. There is 'nothing to see' in the Euro today. We are witnessing MAJOR!!!! risk moves in Equities and commodities across the world....Euro/USD inherit TA and FA reasons are 'irrelevant' in the current session(s) as its and will ONLY move as collateral of the HUGE MACRO moves happening across the board. My 2 cents, at least until the initial storm pass, raise/forget about your micro levels in the Euro. 1.114x is the only one to track for the roll and prolly till German numbers later this week .......
Hey sisse, I am not talking abt the micro levels ... I see everything is happening on d equities side ... Whether German nos. Comes good,bad,ugly e/u is not going down ... Let's c what happens next ... And I really don't see any hikes in Q1 from fed and no rate cuts via ecb ....
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,051
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:43am Feb 8, 2016 11:43am
Quoting sisse
---{quote} Both. sisse
Live and Keep Calm
  • #139,052
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:48am Feb 8, 2016 11:48am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes it looks rather 'scary' after last week. We have been talking about DAX since last week moves but the play is starting to get clearer from the clouds .... {quote} I have been waiting for an exhaustion / panic leg via (OIL and China) the last 6 weeks. Every time we were close we got 'saved by the bell' with only softly grinding the lows until CB's flooded the markets (from PBOC to a dovish FED and every other one in between) and created the current short term bottom. Main problem is neither Technicals nor Fundamentals were pointing to...
that bell was rang in july.. uj is well above the 5k normal retrace. it even forced negative rates. so 5k may be too much.. 2500 will have an attraction. st 114.95 has open legs and so does 106.xx
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #139,053
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:53am Feb 8, 2016 11:53am
Today's daily close might be @.115xx.. Hope I am right ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #139,054
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:20pm Feb 8, 2016 1:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} that bell was rang in july.. uj is well above the 5k normal retrace. it even forced negative rates. so 5k may be too much.. 2500 will have an attraction. st 114.95 has open legs and so does 106.xx
FED hikes setting the mid/long term highs in US (and world) Equities was the one and only one I was tracking for the dominos to fall down ...and so far it has worked flawlessly...

In any case, US equities trading air. We are set to lose the yearly lows 'any minute'. 1785.x/9x naked now in the S&P ....eyes on OIL losing the $30.xx handle today...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,055
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:02pm Feb 8, 2016 2:02pm
Quoting sisse
Changing mid term outlook in GOLD from STRONG SELL to SOFT SELL with mid term bottom on sight for Q1/Q2 2016[in play].
Very important early alerts with the close today in GOLD. 1184.xx holding the selloff in equities with the W close will trigger a mid term bottom in Gold as expected since the FED hikes in Dec and will trigger a change in outlook. Technicals will follow later after one or two more legs down with March CBs play ....For now GOLD the best behave as usual in risk off environments.

Here flat in GOLD but actively tracking 1184.xx for this week...

sissse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,056
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:44pm Feb 8, 2016 2:44pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} Hey sisse, I am not talking abt the micro levels ... I see everything is happening on d equities side ... Whether German nos. Comes good,bad,ugly e/u is not going down ... Let's c what happens next ... And I really don't see any hikes in Q1 from fed and no rate cuts via ecb ....
I see... No hikes FED is already set it. ECB no more QE not yet .,.. I would pay particular attention to German numbers as any ECB trigger will come from the king of the EZ not from the pawns....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,057
  • Edited 4:00pm Feb 8, 2016 3:45pm | Edited 4:00pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} FED hikes setting the mid/long term highs in US (and world) Equities was the one and only one I was tracking for the dominos to fall down ...and so far it has worked flawlessly... In any case, US equities trading air. We are set to lose the yearly lows 'any minute'. 1785.x/9x naked now in the S&P ....eyes on OIL losing the $30.xx handle today... sisse
Sisse, how do u see the D close today on SP (DAX is out of Q as its doomed)? As u suggested real money saved the day in the last minutes. Kind of impressive but to me it seems not persuasive - so maybe neutral close?

On oil it marginall yheld 30.xx but it still looks as a bearish close pointing to 29.5 breach
  • #139,058
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:27pm Feb 8, 2016 4:27pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Sisse, how do u see the D close today on SP (DAX is out of Q as its doomed)? As u suggested real money saved the day in the last minutes. Kind of impressive but to me it seems not persuasive - so maybe neutral close? On oil it marginally held30.xx but it still looks as a bearish close pointing to 29.5 breach
...as if the bastards didn't know the key levels in play ...Both US Equities (1855.x) and Oil 30.1x held literally by the tick ....

In my books is a done deal the break to the lows and only a last minute miracle will avoid the unavoidable ...for now not much to do but let it pan out....

Quoting sisse
US . All eyes on 30.1x for the close today. ...
On the Euro, a slightly bearish close again but is moving as collateral and as long as 1.114x holds....outlook stay neutral for now since last week with same levels, same plays, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,059
  • Feb 8, 2016 11:13pm Feb 8, 2016 11:13pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} FED hikes setting the mid/long term highs in US (and world) Equities was the one and only one I was tracking for the dominos to fall down ...and so far it has worked flawlessly... In any case, US equities trading air. We are set to lose the yearly lows 'any minute'. 1785.x/9x naked now in the S&P ....eyes on OIL losing the $30.xx handle today... sisse
i think started well before the fed raise .. oil has been on posted schedule long before that (even a 14 handle indicated on brent before fed rate hike). equities also before fed raise since july misstep. uj being 5 thousand pips above norm was a key along with copper. the gold of china (copper) slipping for 5 plus years. china is the number 1 user of #2 copper. my buddy with a very large scrap business told me that his #2 shipments to china were slipping 5 years ago. the fed raise is about the same as ecb or japan or world cutting. the fed raised and the eu has risen (opposite of most theory). mainly because of china.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #139,060
  • Feb 9, 2016 1:09am Feb 9, 2016 1:09am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} bastards dont want you to put a Trade on and go out for a cocktail or anything...
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