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  • #139,021
  • Feb 5, 2016 7:59am Feb 5, 2016 7:59am
Just a short question - i tought Average Hourly Earnings m/m where the driver because with 0.5%+ i took it as inflation indicator or am i totally wrong?

btw. I am really scared of DAX... if 9200 breaks the next "real" support on my charts is at 8000.
  • #139,022
  • Feb 5, 2016 8:05am Feb 5, 2016 8:05am
Quoting sisse
--> For the actual flows:

1.121x [check] as expected is the flip for the flows. Inline or better unlock a quick test 1.114x [check]-> 1.108x -> 1.097x. .
Right on time for NY. Euro testing 1.114x. Simple trade so far but this is the area for any real move beyond the basic and obvious initial flow ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,023
  • Feb 5, 2016 8:11am Feb 5, 2016 8:11am
Quoting PipJet
Just a short question - i tought Average Hourly Earnings m/m where the driver because with 0.5%+ i took it as inflation indicator or am i totally wrong? btw. I am really scared of DAX... if 9200 breaks the next "real" support on my charts is at 8000.
I would say u absolutely right. At least thats what the FED counts on - wage inflation and its transmission to general inflation. However, I guess its always necessary to judge the report as a whole and not only look at AHE. So far as judged by dollar/gold/bond reaction seems markets got persuaded by the report in the end from the extreme " new 2008-crash sentiment"
  • #139,024
  • Edited 8:31am Feb 5, 2016 8:21am | Edited 8:31am
Quoting sisse
Slight miss in both the headline and revision NFP but for the main stream NEWS headlines unemployment ticking 4.9% which not only is a great benchmark from the 2008 collapse but it also match even the revision of the revision of the revision of the FED employment target ... Its definitively a big mismatch between real macro numbers with the jitters in Equities. Every day it pass it looks more and more like sour grapes from the bastards since the hike more than actual economic reality .... In any case, a slightly miss in NFP but with unemployment...
As I bet youve been in this business for some time.... so u may know unlike me.... does this happen every normalization cycle? I mean - equities used to low interest rates and fighting the FED not to normalize and to feed them more even though its not really needed. Or is it just some kind of atypical anomally (in its size cuz equities even are looking as if being on a verge of a crash = DAX mostly) in this cycle given by extremely low rates and QE on top for unprecedently long time? I mean: I understand that equities are always gonna react to normalization cycle but the scope of the recent reaction seems kind of ridiculous.
  • #139,025
  • Feb 5, 2016 9:54am Feb 5, 2016 9:54am
Quoting sisse
... Its definitively a big mismatch between real macro numbers with the jitters in Equities. Every day it pass it looks more and more like sour grapes from the bastards since the hike more than actual economic reality .... In any case, a slightly miss in NFP but with unemployment hitting the theoretical FED target (set by themselves)...inline nothing new so expecting corrections on the last overshoot after the FED... NY opening range will set the rest of the legs ... sisse
fear of continuing rate hike program overriding any yieldseeking impetus - for now, no news is good news....still watching oil to rally & turn the tide for US equities, maybe a slim chance there....I am hedging bullish trades.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #139,026
  • Edited 10:43am Feb 5, 2016 10:22am | Edited 10:43am
Days like today, I like going back and re-reading my posts (not really mine in general but sisse's remarks or scolding ) to allow me to really absorb and digest the information before me. I catch things I may have missed before for some reason. Anyways, maybe you can grace us with some answers to my elementary questions. I just want clarity in these.

1) -> Tip....Use the '4 / 6' rule for TF...meaning keep a 4 or max 5 time relation between your charts otherwise either you will be going too far from the market in your direction or too close in the trigger...

***If I am understanding this correctly and I am looking at a Weekly chart and .0806 is my intermediate target and MY FLIP # (posted a few times back since finding this level on MONTHLY chart) then, I should expect to reach this by 2 to 3 weeks and my main targetof .046X within 4 to 6 weeks? I may be embarrassing myself; but, just would like some clarity. Is a Weekly chart a good gauge for this rule? I know this MID TERM LEG can be swift and FAST so may play out before.

2.) Because or job as trader is minimize risk first, second and third before aiming for gains....
{C} ​So sitting for 5 weeks (or 6 hours if you are trading a M1 is irrelevant the TF) locking capital in drawdown is not really minimizing risk but simply increasing it.

***I am not sure if I am understanding this concept. I would think locking in profit would minimize the risk. Point being, I am positioned around the .114X area for one of my better positions and expect an intermediate stop at .0806. Should I not lock in profit to avoid drawdown? And if so, would you lock in profit by closing and re-loading or trailing a certain number of pips away? In past, I would trail and get taken out missing the longer move as I was hesitant to re-enter. However, this time around I know the MACRO view and MID TERM LEG. And, this is key to my trading that you allowed me to see:

Quoting IMARICH1
...I may have missed the boat for this MID TERM LEG a....
--> Why you keep saying that.

First, on the top of my head I can tell you if the mid term leg pans out you will have no less than 3 or 4 major short legs in between and not less than

a dozen (12!!!) major mover and shakers news flows in between until we complete a move like that.


***..so, I believe the MID TERM LEG is now starting to play out and knowing there may be 3 to 4 SHORT TERM LEGS within it; then, I know that .0806 may be a place for me to take profit and look for an opportunity to FADE (Bull/LONG)the move (SHORT TERM LEG) to allow for another TARGET to EXIT and RE-LOAD for the MID TERM LEG (SHORT)

I was looking at these levels for Short Term Legs:

1. .0806 to .097X max ext .108X
2. .046x to .0860 max ext to .1115 (if FA and TA show this)
3. .02XX to .046X max ext to ?????
4.
I may be way off on this but would rather show you my thinking and homework to possibly to learn.

If this is too much and would cause you to have to get more than your usual at the local bar, it can wait !
  • #139,027
  • Feb 5, 2016 12:03pm Feb 5, 2016 12:03pm
Quoting IMARICH1
I would think locking in profit would minimize the risk. Point being, I am positioned around the .114X area for one of my better positions and expect an intermediate stop at .0806. Should I not lock in profit to avoid drawdown? And if so, would you lock in profit by closing and re-loading or trailing a certain number of pips away? In past, I would trail and get taken out missing the longer move as I was hesitant to re-enter. However, this time around I know the MACRO view and MID TERM LEG.
My assumption here is that the sensitivity to risk management applies more so to the entry - find the best entry (patience) so that you can to minimize how much you lose when you enter. By setting to BE now (1.1120-1.1140) you run the risk (fairly high in my opinion) that you will get stopped out before your map can play out. If price takes out your BE stop (entry) and runs south, it's like all the effort (mapping, timing, execution) you put into the trade was wasted! If your map was incorrect->SL hit, ok. If your map was correct->moved SL hit->not ok. Locking in too early would suggest to me that you don't have confidence in your map. If you are already anticipating the max extension of the first retracement wave to be at .1080 or .1115, then I would move my stop to BE after one of these extensions has played out.
Those are my thoughts anyhow, will be interested to hear @sisse's opinion on it.
"Mrrraggglhlhghghlgh"
  • #139,028
  • Feb 5, 2016 12:55pm Feb 5, 2016 12:55pm
Quoting IMARICH1
...I catch things I may have missed before for some reason. Anyways, maybe you can grace us with some answers to my elementary questions. I just want clarity in these. 1) -> Tip....Use the '4 / 6' rule for TF...meaning keep a 4 or max 5 time relation between your charts
Sometimes traders tend to complicate things so much in TA that they forget about the most basic concepts in trading.

In those forgotten basic concepts you will find 90% of the answers for most of the common problems that kill most of retail traders.

You need to go to basics so lets starts from scratch:

--> There are 3 variables in a trading plan:

--> 1. Price

The most important. Without knowing WHERE to enter and exit you are doom despite anything else.

Does it mean that you need to be perfect and exact?

No, not all. Only rule thumb.Your potential range for profit from your entry to the exit should be larger than your risk.

--> 2. Time

We have been discussing for a while this one. Knowing WHEN to trade makes the difference between sitting forever in a large drawdown and/or your stop being hit and a trader with higher winning %.

A trader who just shout/call/trade (many in these boards) "Euro to 1.99xx or to 0.88xx randomly", is as doom to failure as that 5 minuter aiming for 400 ticks swing in their entry....

That is not trading but wishful thinking despite being right or wrong after 10years (or minutes)

--> 3. Volatility.

This is the one you are referring with your question (but I am afraid you didn't realise).

Even if you got a good 'price' and you got your 'timing' right, knowing the pace (how long) of price moving from point A to point B is a whole different issue.

Good traders (despite the TF) and option traders are a lot more familiar with this because sadly impatience and ill discipline hyperactive traders (so call 'scalpers' in these boards) just bypass this key concept by flopping after the first tick against their entry....

With these points in mind and answering to your first question.

Do not confuse your timing to enter a trade with the pace and speed your trade will take to pan out.

Sure common sense dictate that if you are trading a M1 chart it shouldn't take 1 year to pan out. Neither expect a monthly swing to pan out in 5 minutes...

You need to learn how to gauge volatility in your trading TF scope so you measure how and where to trail stops or when to be sharp and ready to take action , etc etc etc

Whatever the case volatility is measure in the price and pace of a range not by the number of candles in your chart. A M5 candle can cover a whole Daily swing (wide volatility) or 100000 M5 Bars not even cover 50% of a Daily swing (ow volatility / choppy).

I should expect to reach this by 2 to 3 weeks and my maintarget .046X within 4 to 6 weeks?

My answer: You are lost if you think you are going to get a default answer measured in number of candles.

First thing is reset the concept. Start by scooping the range of the move you are aiming. Second try to gauge a basic average volatility of that range you want to cover ...only there you will get a starting point for understanding speed and pace in a leg...

...we'll continue later with the other points...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,029
  • Edited 2:08pm Feb 5, 2016 1:54pm | Edited 2:08pm
***follow up to question on volatility/pace

And, yes I suffer from being a pipoholic and am "LOST"


I should expect to reach this by 2 to 3 weeks and my main target .046X within 4 to 6 weeks?

My answer: You are lost if you think you are going to get a default answer measured in number of candles.

First thing is reset the concept. Start by scooping the range of the move you are aiming. Second try to gauge a basic average volatility of that range you want to cover ...only there you will get a starting point for understanding speed and pace in a leg...

In using the TF Rule 4' or 6' with a Weekly chart, I was assuming I should look for a target to exit mainly based on this time rule. If I have an intermediate target of .0806; then, I figured that would be HALF of the time to reach final target of .046X. I was taking 1 week X 4 or 6 to get my final target pace time to look for an exit if my target was NOT reached by then. (4 to 6 weeks). And, you are basically saying this is foolish to default to this kind of mindset which shows my lack of understanding on how to use this rule.

However, I do know ADR for EU can be 90 to 125 pips on average and 150 to 200 pips on news and volatility. TODAY, so far, has been close 13X and EU could be done for the day on avg or may move a little more.

You suggested MID TERM LEG could be FAST once it starts to go similar to your MAP today if news was inline as price could move from .12XX to .108X to .097X. That is a FAST move similar to the last 2 days from .0910 to .124X

These are my thoughts to maybe show my errors in thinking on this concept that I clearly don't understand as well. Maybe you can shed some light on it more in detail when you have time along with my previous questions on trailing or locking in profit on a trade where it could be more risky on a draw down and not protecting capital that you were referring to in previous post.

I realize I am asking alot of your time and expertise in all of this.....I do appreciate it!
  • #139,030
  • Feb 5, 2016 2:05pm Feb 5, 2016 2:05pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Sometimes traders tend to complicate things so much in TA that they forget about the most basic concepts in trading. In those forgotten basic concepts you will find 90% of the answers for most of the common problems that kill most of retail traders. You need to go to basics so lets starts from scratch: --> There are 3 variables in a trading plan: --> 1. Price The most important. Without knowing WHERE to enter and exit you are doom despite anything else. Does it mean that you need to be perfect and exact? No, not all. Only rule thumb.Your...

I should expect to reach this by 2 to 3 weeks and my maintarget .046X within 4 to 6 weeks?

This might sound foolish but do you mean you are expecting E.U to reach that level within the mentioned TF ?
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  • #139,031
  • Edited 2:51pm Feb 5, 2016 2:27pm | Edited 2:51pm
let me join this.

i would technically still see the e/u rising till fed meeting where a rate hike could surprise (seems like no hike is priced in the price now/but even then if fed goes dovish its priced in and could that go further down for the dollar?) the market triggering the down move to the lows or draghi not extending/more qe ... this could be in till the mid summer to play out.

now should the minor reports scheduled weekly be a trigger for the move? thats what i question myself? probably not only if they combined show a different story.

as for last week is i would just follow the dovish fed it would be generous to me but still just started this approach and switched my long +60 from the lows to shorts which was not good, have to change my mindset that those moves are for larger points.


sisse are u trading some of those reports intraday or mostly for couple of days/weeks that confuses me a bit for how long to hold on some news?



here a picture of my view, above that high should give some steam to the bulls technically..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2016-02-05_2116.png Size: 38 KB
  • #139,032
  • Feb 5, 2016 4:18pm Feb 5, 2016 4:18pm
and we rolled ...no surprise in the Euro as widely expected we rolled a couple of ticks above 1.114x but too close to call anything confirming the neutral outlook from Wednesday..

More interesting US Equities lost foot on the close and or on the brink to open a test of lows and below. OIL, GOLD and Dollar allheld so not much to see at these levels.

Here flat in Equities and OIL before the close and in the rest same levels, same plays, same all...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,033
  • Feb 5, 2016 5:08pm Feb 5, 2016 5:08pm
Quoting sisse
and we rolled ...no surprise in the Euro as widely expected we rolled a couple of ticks above 1.114x but too close to call anything confirming the neutral outlook from Wednesday.. More interesting US Equities lost foot on the close and or on the brink to open a test of lows and below. OIL, GOLD and Dollar allheld so not much to see at these levels. Here flat in Equities and OIL before the close and in the rest same levels, same plays, same all... sisse
dax signaled 30% drop.. i love yanking your chain.. but yes 30 ish % is true.. even though dragis is fighting it.. dead cat may be 10857 or even more.. after that or before, a dead cat cant be verified till it happens. i suspect 625x is wanted... meanwhile china, u know my view on that crash. add it to the ez banks affected by china investments sitting on other overvalued ez assets.. dragis just screws the banks he is supposed to protect with weakening currency. he dont have a choice, weaken or deflation. its not a pretty picture.. they can print all they want, its happened before pre ww2..

meanwhile little timmy is still stuck in the well. lassie last seen off to get help.. a flock of circling vultures circling her carcass on audubon shoulder
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #139,034
  • Feb 7, 2016 8:18pm Feb 7, 2016 8:18pm
Completely escaped me:

A type of order traders use to protect against losses is being phased out, as stock exchanges seek to deal with the ramifications of huge intraday swings.
The New York Stock Exchange, in a statement, said it would no longer accept what are called stop orders, beginning Feb. 26, joining the Nasdaq NDAQ, -0.75% in barring them. Another order type called good-till-canceled also is being axed.
The NYSE, a unit of the IntercontinentalExchange ICE, -4.02% cited the risks that occur from such orders during volatile trading. A stop order could be triggered after a big downward move, but investors could be unhappy when the stock quickly recovers its value. Another risk is the stock falls much further than the level where the stop order was intended to be executed.
(Short sellers place stop orders in the opposite direction, buying if a stock exceeds a certain price.)


source: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/nys...ers-2015-11-18
  • #139,035
  • Feb 7, 2016 9:16pm Feb 7, 2016 9:16pm
Wow.
  • #139,036
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:08am Feb 8, 2016 4:08am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} dax singled 30% drop.. i love yanking your chain.. but yes 30 ish % is true.. ... meanwhile little timmy is still stuck in the well. lassie last seen off to get help.. a flock of circling vultures circling her carcass on audubon shoulder
Yes it looks rather 'scary' after last week. We have been talking about DAX since last week moves but the play is starting to get clearer from the clouds ....

Quoting sisse
{quote} Key and strong moves in Dollar are given screaming signals of whats about to come. Markets are aligning for a new clean sweep (test of lows and complete the crumbs left in both side of the Atlantic) in equities (via OIL) until CB's step back in March. In the case of DAX, dark clouds are already on top, losing 923x.x unlocks a rather fast and scary leg to 766x.x ...
I have been waiting for an exhaustion / panic leg via (OIL and China) the last 6 weeks. Every time we were close we got 'saved by the bell' with only softly grinding the lows until CB's flooded the markets (from PBOC to a dovish FED and every other one in between) and created the current short term bottom.

Main problem is neither Technicals nor Fundamentals were pointing to a short term bottom yet in Oil or China (at least in my books) while in equities the leg down also got truncated leaving some crumb left on the lows (especially in US equites).

After digesting all the CB's news and latest moves in the markets (especially those sharp short term exhaustion legs in DOLLAR, also in EURO last week, GOLD holding the pullback and Equities losing floor) and knowing that Central Banks (ECB, and FED) are out of business until March, we are aligning for a 'bloodbath' to complete the pending legs triggered by OIL and China jitters (as you very well point out) tumbling the next domino in line: European Equities (check German numbers this week).

....If this is what I think has been cooking under the table since last week....

---> On the DAX, the dead cat bounce you mention will only come with ECB more QE but there is a 'long way' till then so basically we are aligning for a clean sweep to 7666.x with a strong intermediate stop 8730.x. In terms, of currencies, Euro broke correlation last week, and the last leg up is starting to look more and more as the capitulation before a strong leg on European Equities more than anything else...

--------------------- ---------------------

We may have a couple of very wild weeks ahead of us. For now:

DAX lost key 9230.x in the opening range triggering imminent major break down alerts that extend far beyond the short term leg. On the Euro, it will move only as collateral of Equities at these key levels with 1.114x as the rain maker for the mid term swing ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #139,037
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:19am Feb 8, 2016 4:19am
Quoting Mr Hatch
Completely escaped me: A type of order traders use to protect against losses is being phased out, as stock exchanges seek to deal with the ramifications of huge intraday swings. The New York Stock Exchange, in a statement, said it would no longer accept what are called stop orders, beginning Feb. 26, joining the Nasdaq NDAQ, -0.75% in barring them. Another order type called good-till-canceled also is being axed. The NYSE, a unit of the IntercontinentalExchange ICE,...

bastards dont want you to put a Trade on and go out for a cocktail or anything...
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #139,038
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:30am Feb 8, 2016 4:30am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Yes it looks rather 'scary' after last week. We have been talking about DAX since last week moves but the play is starting to get clearer from the clouds .... {quote} I have been waiting for an exhaustion / panic leg via (OIL and China) the last 6 weeks. Every time we were close we got 'saved by the bell' with only softly grinding the lows until CB's flooded the markets (from PBOC to a dovish FED and every other one in between) and created the current short term bottom. Main problem is neither Technicals nor Fundamentals were pointing to...
Sisse, very interesting and insightful comments, as always. Would love to know what you think about gold given the current situation? It's close to a full retrace of it's sharp Oct 28- Dec 02 2015 fall.
  • #139,039
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:39am Feb 8, 2016 4:39am
Quoting sisse
{quote} On the Euro, it will move only as collateral of Equities at these key levels with 1.114x as the rain maker for the mid term swing ... sisse
Hi Sisse! If equities move down Euro is spposed to move up? If I understand it correctly closing positions in DAX will create demand for Euro, thus pushing EUR/USD higher. Do I understand correctly? Another thing, which is confusin me when I make such evaluations. How do you estimate the share of overseas investors who invested in DAX and used Euro as funding currency and will convert Euro into USD (most likely USD)? How to estimate what demand will be greater in case of DAX crush, for Euro or for USD? Thank you.
  • #139,040
  • Feb 8, 2016 4:39am Feb 8, 2016 4:39am
I would like to give my opinion on some macro developments if I may. In the last ECB press Mario said that the recovery in EU economy was mostly driven buy bigger consumption caused by lower oil prices. Otherwise looking at some numbers from EU in the past weeks production is slowing down. Deflation might be on the way==> price stability is the main goal of ECB, will therefore ECB continue with QE or add some other programs? On the other side, low oil prices are bad for US, because of potential job losses if oil companies become unprofitable.
What do you think?
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