Mike's EURUSD Trading Room

welp that breakout in eur/usd was nutz

I wasn't able to trade last night, perhaps it was a good thing given the EURUSD rally. The 4-hour EURUSD chart is looking great for a retracement today which might be worth looking at. The pair may even off a bit during the Asian session, worst case scenario there'll be a period of consolidation; I don't see it continuing upwards until much later during today's session if at all barring some kind of fundamental movement.

Mike

yeah im looking at a retracement between 1,1155 and 1,1145... would be a great short from 1,12 but im not sure at all.... the dax is going crazy aswell....

maybe whats happening now is really just a consolidation triangle ( thats what it looks like) for further upward movement

I've only got a brief moment to check the markets tonight, I'd love to be trading the current environment but real life gets in the way sometimes. Especially when I trade anywhere as late as 2-3am some days...

Here's a quick chart from the USDCAD showing why I love using higher time frame analysis to support my shorter time frame trading style. That's one hell of a move, but take a look at the fib target for accuracy!

I'll see if I can't do some chart analysis before I go...

Mike

The USD Index has been strictly rangebound throughout the day. Compared to these past 2 days volatility is exceptionally low.

AUDUSD

Obvious uptrend. A retracement to around 0.7150 or below seems likely, I'd look at long positions from good levels in this area (particularly 0.710).



EURUSD

I feel as though I'm bidding farewell to an old friend. The channel I've been using for over a month has finally been properly broken! That allows me to draw a new channel on the daily chart. Please excuse the many horizontal lines..



GBPUSD

Fibonacci strikes again! The 161.8 level held up nicely. I'd be looking for long positions from the top of that ascending channel, with particular regard to the old high, now turned 61.8 fib level around 1.4450.



Mike

USDJPY

Price action is very much rangebound. Sell the highs, buy the lows, respect the breakout.



USDCAD

The approximate inverse of the GBPUSD. Looking at short positions from the 61.8 fib level. Definitely some interesting setups for next week beginning to develop.



USDCHF

The price is getting close to a major ascending trend line. A price imbalance at around 0.99 is likely, and could mean some good long setups coming into next week. The inverse correlation to the EURUSD gives me more confidence in my analysis that the EURUSD may have more room on the upside (and the USDCHF on the downside) before the likely retracement.



Mike

The USDCAD/GBPUSD trade I looked at late last week seems to be working nicely. The new 61.8% Fibonacci level is holding nicely. I'm definitely treating the USDCAD as rebounding from supply at this point and will be favouring short positions. The same goes for the GBPUSD for long positions (rebounding from demand).

Mike

Short the AUDUSD @ 0.71255. Mostly based on the 5-minute set of reversal candles at a key round level showing signs of reaction to previous excess supply.

Mike

guessing im too late for the short in audusd...

Don't worry, the real play there was on the GBPUSD. I've closed out my AUDUSD trade for 1:1 (10 pips profit) after watching other pairs nosedive 50 pips with the Aussie only bailing about a fifth of that move. Still, first trade for the week is a win

Mike

Planning a long position for the GBPUSD from any key level below 1.44435. Of particular note is the 1.440 level.

Mike

Long the GBPUSD, looking to fade this USD surge. The USD Index has ticked into what I perceive as supply and the EUR has found demand at around 1.1125. The Pound should follow suit. Looking to get out around the 61.8 fib level.

Mike

EDIT: 10 pip loss, waiting for the 1.44 level for another entry.

Planning a short position on the USDCAD. 5-minute price action is already suggesting a reversal but I'm going to wait for the close of the current 15-minute bar. There's a lot of confluence in this trade so I want to get the entry right the first time, there's significant downside potential here from a technical perspective.

Mike

EDIT: mistakes were made, this one probably should've been an entry without confirmation given the location in the channel and fibonacci backup so close at hand. 25 pips would have already been acquired.

The USDCAD trade from yesterday would've worked an absolute treat. The price has reacted really nicely from the top of that channel. That's the sort of trade I absolutely should've taken without confirmation. In my view the price will need to break below demand around 1.3850 before a more substantial sell-off, otherwise I'd anticipate either consolidation or an upside retracement.

Mike

Likewise, the GBPUSD has respected the downside of yesterday's channel and is now pushing into higher territory. I'm planning a short position around 1.450.

Mike

I'm in long on the GBPUSD from 1.440. Entered without confirmation on the round level as it has confluence with both a 15-minute demand zone and upward channel. The trade correlates inversely with the USDCAD, which is sitting at an equally important price point.

Mike

Ended up with a pretty up and down day yesterday, took a few hits and finished off with a big short on the GBPUSD from 1.450. It worked rather nicely... (+25 pips) I ended up a bit over break even.

The EURUSD is reacting to a round level at the bottom of a channel. Looking like there's plenty of room on the upside, I'm still looking to short from the top of the prevailing channel though.

Mike

First trade of the night was a short on the GBPUSD. Took 23.2 pips right before the Fed decided to hint at future rate hikes in 2016, driving the price further down.

The USD will be looking very strong until this news is fully priced in. I'm going to let the dust settle a bit before looking for new entries.

Mike

It's such a shame I wasn't able to trade yesterday - the EURUSD has finally hit the top of my upwards channel. I'll still look for shorts from round levels if there is another move to the upside, but the ideal entry really would've been at 1.3650 and 1.3675 last night. Still, it's a nice pattern to look at if nothing else.

That 4-hour price action looks absolute spot on for a sell-off. I'd definitely anticipate a continuation on the downside.

Mike

Depending on how the hourly price action winds up there could also be a very excellent short opportunity on the GBPUSD soon. The channel is a bit loose (price action has stuck to it but blown out either side quite frequently) but the confluence of a round level (1.4550) with the top of the main prevailing channel and the channel I drew 3 days ago makes me think this one has potential. I definitely want hourly price action confirmation before trading this setup.

Mike