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  • #161
  • Jan 26, 2016 3:08am Jan 26, 2016 3:08am
Quoting swatti
lookin good there mike.... hmmm i was thinking about going long at 1.0841 but the ADX looks more than bad for a Long position as far as im concerned..... what do you say guys? {image}
Cheers guys

Swatti, personally I really don't like using lagging indicators to try to predict future price movements. I only use the ADX on the 1-minute chart as a filter to enhance the odds of a trade I've already planned based on prices, value etc. That aside, I'm not opposed to a long position from 1.0841 as the 61.8% fib level is sitting right there. Having said that, the level has been fairly well "used up" so far (several touches by price today). I'd personally wait for the 38% fib level just below 1.0825 for longs. Just my opinion though of course!

Mike

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  • #162
  • Jan 26, 2016 4:02am Jan 26, 2016 4:02am
Covered a +5.7 pip scalp on that USDJPY trade... didn't get to re-enter and it's convenient that I didn't as the price has gone further north. The entry conditions for this trade are now null.

Planning a long on the USDCAD from around 1.04250 to 1.04225. Ascending channel with fib levels at round number levels. The blue circle on the chart indicates the area in which I'll be watching for good entries.

Mike


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  • #163
  • Jan 26, 2016 4:11am Jan 26, 2016 4:11am
Quoting mjrsaunders
Covered a +5.7 pip scalp on that USDJPY trade... didn't get to re-enter and it's convenient that I didn't as the price has gone further north. The entry conditions for this trade are now null. Planning a long on the USDCAD from around 1.04250 to 1.04225. Ascending channel with fib levels at round number levels. The blue circle on the chart indicates the area in which I'll be watching for good entries. Mike {image}
HI, I'm also looking for longs in the area, what are you see this going for a TP?
I don't know...
  • #164
  • Edited 4:33am Jan 26, 2016 4:16am | Edited 4:33am
Quoting Kartveli
{quote} HI, I'm also looking for longs in the area, what are you see this going for a TP?
Hi Kartveli,

I generally limit myself to a 25 pip target at most; my trading style and psychological approach to trading is very short term. I'll likely be using the round and fibonacci levels you can see on the chart I posted as price targets once I've entered. The trade may be worth more than 25 pips but I likely won't be going for any more than that.

On another note, I'm in short again on the USDJPY, this time from the 118.25 round level in confluence with the 50% fib level.

EDIT: stopped out for a 6.0 pip loss, might've set my stop a little too tight.

Mike

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  • #165
  • Edited 6:52am Jan 26, 2016 4:25am | Edited 6:52am
im waiting to get filled for my short position in usd jpy at 118.35


well i got filled.... not looking too good though.


struggeling like hell at entry point


there is a tiny divergence here.....

this could be a good sign for my short trade.....
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  • #166
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:07am Jan 26, 2016 7:07am
I'm done for the night, up a total of +21.0 pips with this trade on the USDJPY...

Re-entered at 118.40 or so, right on the 38% fib level. Kept it quick at 10 pips as momentum was definitely pulling the market upwards overall.

Good luck with your short Swatti, hope you get to ride it down a bit... there is definitely some room for movement there. Just be careful with the trendlines you're drawing on the chart. I can see evidence of confirmation bias in that chart you just posted. Find the trendline that gives you a good idea of where others are entering, not necessarily just the one that supports a trade you're already in.

Good night!
Mike

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  • #167
  • Jan 26, 2016 7:32am Jan 26, 2016 7:32am
Quoting mjrsaunders
I'm done for the night, up a total of +21.0 pips with this trade on the USDJPY... Re-entered at 118.40 or so, right on the 38% fib level. Kept it quick at 10 pips as momentum was definitely pulling the market upwards overall. Good luck with your short Swatti, hope you get to ride it down a bit... there is definitely some room for movement there. Just be careful with the trendlines you're drawing on the chart. I can see evidence of confirmation bias in that chart you just posted. Find the trendline that gives you a good idea of where others...

thanks mike. i appreciate it.


ill keep to my decision for the moment. i have my stop loss set and thats the worst case scenario. none the less it might turn out well for me.

night night.... its daytime here
  • #168
  • Jan 26, 2016 8:48pm Jan 26, 2016 8:48pm
after a very long day i closed with profit... coulda let it run a little longer but i was happy it turned just before hitting my stop loss and gave me black numbers
  • #169
  • Jan 27, 2016 2:31am Jan 27, 2016 2:31am
Just missed out on a short on the USDCAD... should've set an alert; I didn't expect to miss this one if I left the computer for a few minutes.

Posting for the sake of this trade's beauty, since writing this post it's nearly down to 1.4125... based on the 61.8 fib level with 1.4150 round level.

Mike

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  • #170
  • Jan 27, 2016 3:53am Jan 27, 2016 3:53am
Planning a long position on the GBPUSD. I'll stress that I'm waiting for price action confirmation on this one, as the fib level doesn't quite line up well enough with the round level to go in without another supporting factor.

Long from around 1.4293.

Mike



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  • #171
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:29am Jan 27, 2016 4:29am
Quoting mjrsaunders
Planning a long position on the GBPUSD. I'll stress that I'm waiting for price action confirmation on this one, as the fib level doesn't quite line up well enough with the round level to go in without another supporting factor. Long from around 1.4293. Mike {image}

good morning mike


im waiting for it to drop down to the 61,8 fib retracement ( i think on your chart it should be the 38.2..... i drew my line from bottom to top) between 1.4250 and 1.4246.

on the H1 chart it looks to be an uprising wedge to continue declining in the long run.... on the other hand we should be looking at it touching the bottom of the wedge sooner or later.....tomorrow mayhaps...... and take a long position there
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  • #172
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:44am Jan 27, 2016 4:44am
Quoting swatti
{quote} good morning mike im waiting for it to drop down to the 61,8 fib retracement ( i think on your chart it should be the 38.2..... i drew my line from bottom to top) between 1.4250 and 1.4246. on the H1 chart it looks to be an uprising wedge to continue declining in the long run.... on the other hand we should be looking at it touching the bottom of the wedge sooner or later.....tomorrow mayhaps...... and take a long position there {image} {image}
Hey Swatti,

I completely agree with your idea, the 38 fib level on my chart is one of the potential prices I'm most happy with in the coming session. I closed my long for only 3.6 pips, 1M price action was looking rather sketchy and I just really wasn't feeling good about the trade overall. Of course now I get to watch it travel north through my original target (maybe)... I tend to find that trusting my intuition is profitable overall, so long as I don't blur the lines between emotions and intuition.

Mike

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  • #173
  • Jan 27, 2016 4:53am Jan 27, 2016 4:53am
oo hope i didnt confuse you in your trade ....sorry dude... at your target...woch has just passed i looked to enter short but im too scared
  • #174
  • Jan 27, 2016 5:01am Jan 27, 2016 5:01am
Quoting swatti
oo hope i didnt confuse you in your trade ....sorry dude... at your target...woch has just passed i looked to enter short but im too scared
Haha no it's fine... I think I might have let my emotions get the better of me... looking back I'd say I subconsciously wrote the trade off as a loss and moved to minimise the damage. Realistically my reasoning for entering the trade was still very much valid, and so exiting prematurely wasn't smart.

Going to give myself a break for an hour or so to get back into the right mental space.

Mike
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  • #175
  • Jan 27, 2016 6:26am Jan 27, 2016 6:26am
any clues for gbp/usd ?


consolidating right now by the looks of things....i missed about 2 entries now..... ;(


going to enter a short at 1.4317 with a rather tight stop... dont know if ill get filled.... perhaps on the next downward movement the "wimpel" (german) is broken...

sorry dont know the english term..
...in that case we should have a good short option
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  • #176
  • Jan 27, 2016 6:43am Jan 27, 2016 6:43am
I'm not really touching the GBPUSD right now, focused on the USDCAD and USDCHF. I'll take a look at GU in a moment.

I wanted to long the USDCAD but volatility is really, really high on that pair at the present moment. I think a 10 pip stop would be too short, which makes me want to wait it out. Instead I decided to use the USDCHF to express my view...

Treating this one as a bit of a scalping opportunity, I'm going to re-enter multiple times if the market provides me the opportunity. First trade is out for +8.1 pips.

Mike

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  • #177
  • Jan 27, 2016 6:49am Jan 27, 2016 6:49am
interesting mike.... not good enough to do those kinds of things...


just got filled by the way



and knocked out...dayum
  • #178
  • Jan 27, 2016 6:52am Jan 27, 2016 6:52am
Quoting swatti
any clues for gbp/usd ? consolidating right now by the looks of things....i missed about 2 entries now..... ;( going to enter a short at 1.4317 with a rather tight stop... dont know if ill get filled.... perhaps on the next downward movement the "wimpel" (german) is broken... sorry dont know the english term.. ...in that case we should have a good short option {image}
I don't mind a short from the level you indicated, I don't really see a clear trend on the GU right now though so I'm only trading fresh touches of levels where there is likely to be a supply and demand imbalance. I try to stay objective when it comes to questions like "where is the price likely to go?" I just pick levels

Meanwhile the USDCHF... why did I decide to scalp that level haha!

Mike
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  • #179
  • Edited 9:33am Jan 27, 2016 9:22am | Edited 9:33am
Entered long on the GBPUSD just below that level I discussed with Swatti earlier.

Long from 1.42347, risking 6.8 pips for a maximum of 25.

Mike

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  • #180
  • Jan 27, 2016 9:39am Jan 27, 2016 9:39am
Quoting mjrsaunders
Entered long on the GBPUSD just below that level I discussed with Swatti earlier. Long from 1.42347, risking 6.8 pips for a maximum of 25. Mike {image}


as always im late


EDIT: entered at 1.4249 anyway....lets see how far this can take us
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