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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #19,801
  • Feb 6, 2016 5:39am Feb 6, 2016 5:39am
I am hoping for a small gap up on Monday to allow me to exit my current position. This baby will be tanking next week. I expect new lows for the DAX,DOW,Nasdaq along with SPX500 this month
  • #19,802
  • Feb 6, 2016 5:43am Feb 6, 2016 5:43am
Lots of BOJ data on Sunday could be enough to kick off the drop through the support, if the Nikkei gets a move on and its still looking extremely bearish... Common Markets do us proud!!

Never underestimate a stampede of investors scared for their money!!

Edit: Still holding shorts of Europe and the Nikkei. (the 225 seems to have closed the week almost bang on horizontal support, really hoping a sell off Monday and Europe to follow suit)
Que Sera
  • #19,803
  • Feb 6, 2016 7:03am Feb 6, 2016 7:03am
VW is down EU53Bn in Mkt Cap since start of 2015, which equates to 504pts gone.

Deutsche Bank is down EU20Bn in Mkt Cap since start of 2015, which equates to 182pts gone.

You can kiss those points goodbye on the Dax with the risks those two companies currently face. So in a simple way, you can deduct those points from the highs of April 2015 as a measure of the potential high, but in this environment, lower PE ratio's may prevail.

But interestingly, Daimler is down EU25Bn, and BMW is down EU24Bn as well... Neither carry the same risk as VW, and their PE ratios are 6.94 and 7.55 respectively, so are they good buys at present and will they recover some of those points on the Dax?

Other big movers on the Dax are Bayer (PE 12.99) down EU25Bn , Siemens (PE 12.95) down EU12Bn, BASF (PE 12.41) down EU22Bn, Deutsche Post (PE 11.32) down EU11Bn, Linde (PE 15.85) down EU10.71Bn. There are loads of points to recover there too.
  • #19,804
  • Feb 6, 2016 7:50am Feb 6, 2016 7:50am
Btw... Average PE ratio on the Dax is around 13.35.

This may sound cheap, but it can go cheaper and perhaps to the sub 10 region in a full-blown crash and bear market.

With an Average PE ratio of 10, it would bring the Dax down to 6,936pts.

The 200sma on the Monthly TF is 6,389pts.

Somewhere in this range could be a potential bottom in a full-blown crash.
  • #19,805
  • Feb 6, 2016 8:00am Feb 6, 2016 8:00am
Hi,
I don't know how other traders can say yeat to buy dax??? seems they playing with demo acc or live acc and keep blowing up...
What we have in chart????
1. From M to m15 chart all pointing down.
2.Even to say buy dax there is no single PA confirmation that buyers step in mkt yeat.
3.We are on edge of W break out Lows.
4.Better to say sell as much you can retracemants instead catch falling knife.
  • #19,806
  • Feb 6, 2016 8:11am Feb 6, 2016 8:11am
I'm not trying offend anyone but and end in the day dax is volatile trade unit. Trading with out stops on dax is matter of time when they gone hit you on margin, chew up and spit out. When we approach Lows with out PA confirmation is pure gamble which is not good trader style. If you seasonal trader yea whatever than. But if you want to make proper incomes you have to learn PA and dax heart beaten rhythm. DAX is extremely profitable unit to trade, but you have to trade right. Jump in ocean with out confirmation this zero game plan.
  • #19,807
  • Feb 6, 2016 9:22pm Feb 6, 2016 9:22pm
Quoting Julexo
Hi, I don't know how other traders can say yeat to buy dax??? seems they playing with demo acc or live acc and keep blowing up... What we have in chart???? 1. From M to m15 chart all pointing down. 2.Even to say buy dax there is no single PA confirmation that buyers step in mkt yeat. 3.We are on edge of W break out Lows. 4.Better to say sell as much you can retracemants instead catch falling knife.
At the moment it does look like a falling knife and gains just look like short term retracements until the next red bar pops up.
  • #19,808
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:19am Feb 7, 2016 3:19am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} At the moment it does look like a falling knife and gains just look like short term retracements until the next red bar pops up.
I agree but the DOW looks somewhat more boyant struggling to make new lows last week it is hard to tell if the wedge in play is bullish or bearish ... if either are going to retrace before the next leg down then it will be around these area's, if not then further drops and a retest...
Que Sera
  • #19,809
  • Feb 7, 2016 5:42am Feb 7, 2016 5:42am
Also Yellen to speak on Wednesday ... I'm doubtful she will pull a rabbit out of the hat this time and interest rate hikes will go ahead. But WTFDIK
Que Sera
  • #19,810
  • Feb 7, 2016 11:25pm Feb 7, 2016 11:25pm
Quoting acit
{quote} There is a reversal pattern, i will show in chart form tml, we now reach fibo 161.8 of the reversal pattern which usually will move up due to very oversold..i use it now in gbpusd, gbpnzd and eurusd during NFP just, and now in big pips
Hi Sty, as promised, this is my chart to trade reversal pattern. I'm sorry if I cant elaborate more than this (trade secret) .

Attached Image


At 161.8% level I see pattern for long to support it.
Next level for long is at 261.8%, we see any pattern for long there.
  • #19,811
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:24am Feb 8, 2016 1:24am
Looks like down to start the day, watching that EUR climb, and Oil looks flat and possibly lowering.

Oil price seems to get more volatile and possibly lift when NY goes online.

Key Resistance
9,560.70: R2
9,452.60: Daily - 7 SMA
9,408.10: 4H - 20 SMA
9,404.20: R1
9,314.90: DPP
9,312.10: 1H - 20 SMA
9,300.90: 1M - 200 SMA
9,300.40: 1H - 7 SMA
9,299.80: 5M - 200 SMA
9,297.10: 4H - 7 SMA

Key Supports:
9,253.80: Fib 100%
9,200.00: BRN
9,158.40: S1
9,100.00: BRN
9,069.10: S2
9,000.00: BRN
8,912.60: S3
  • #19,812
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:40am Feb 8, 2016 1:40am
Quoting acit
{quote} Hi Sty, as promised, this is my chart to trade reversal pattern. I'm sorry if I cant elaborate more than this (trade secret) . {image} At 161.8% level I see pattern for long to support it. Next level for long is at 261.8%, we see any pattern for long there.
Thanks for sharing. Asian markets will be closed this week for Chinese New Years
  • #19,813
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:38am Feb 8, 2016 2:38am
She's a wild one this morning! Support if it's going to hold should be about here @ 9250
  • #19,814
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:40am Feb 8, 2016 2:40am
Quoting cat
She's a wild one this morning! Support if it's going to hold should be about here @ 9250
It's looking ugly, i see DAX going to 9221 Friday's low.
  • #19,815
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:46am Feb 8, 2016 2:46am
Quoting cat
She's a wild one this morning! Support if it's going to hold should be about here @ 9250
I think that starting today we entering into major important time for DAX. Last week close is extremelly dangerous. 923X held marginally but it looks very week and if breached DAX 76XX is open with 834X lvl as a support in between..... equities generally could be in big trouble soon
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screenshot1.png Size: 17 KB
  • #19,816
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:49am Feb 8, 2016 2:49am
Quoting chester123
{quote} I think that starting today we entering into major important time for DAX. Last week close is extremelly dangerous. 923X held marginally but it looks very week and if breached DAX 76XX is open with 834X lvl as a support in between..... equities generally could be in big trouble soon {image}
They already are, but it remains to be seen whether they can claw their way back.
  • #19,817
  • Feb 8, 2016 2:59am Feb 8, 2016 2:59am
Price has fallen a long way from the h1/h2/h4 200ema - so it could be time fore a retrace is my logic behind a pullback today, if there is one. Still too early to say though.
  • #19,818
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:05am Feb 8, 2016 3:05am
Popcorn at the ready?
Que Sera
  • #19,819
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:12am Feb 8, 2016 3:12am
The next big support level that I have is the Weekly 200sma running under at 9,108. The big players know this, and beneath it there in nothing until 8870 on the monthly chart

Well we're there, so what's it going to do?
  • #19,820
  • Feb 8, 2016 3:25am Feb 8, 2016 3:25am
Quoting cat
The next big support level that I have is the Weekly 200sma running under at 9,108. The big players know this, and beneath it there in nothing until 8870 on the monthly chart Well we're there, so what's it going to do?
PA looks like the fat lady is sitting on it and she is just about to sing
Que Sera
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