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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #59,161
  • Feb 5, 2016 8:46am Feb 5, 2016 8:46am
Good weekend.
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  • #59,162
  • Feb 5, 2016 10:59am Feb 5, 2016 10:59am
Quoting seonder
Could someone kindly explain to me whats happened? NFP was worst than expeteced... and yet U/J is going north? Is it for a retest area 119? Thank you all
The U.S. dollar rebounded against a basket of major currencies on Friday after data showed a pickup in U.S. wages in January, suggesting greater inflation and denting the view that the Federal Reserve would not hike rates at all this year.
U.S. Labor Department data showed that average hourly earnings increased 12 cents, or 0.5 percent, last month, leaving the year-on-year gain in earnings at 2.5 percent.
The wage data was enough to drive the dollar higher even as non-farm payrolls increased by just 151,000 jobs last month, below the 190,000 that economists in a Reuters poll had expected. The unemployment rate was at 4.9 percent, the lowest since February 2008. (from reuters)
In a world where robots fucks everybody else over...
  • #59,163
  • Feb 5, 2016 12:31pm Feb 5, 2016 12:31pm
Thank you. Very kind!! now it's seems a little more complex than I tought. But I'm learning every day something new, thank to ppl like you here on FF.
So, now I see on in the very big picture of the weekly U/J chart that this pair it's ranging from116.00 to 126.00 since nov 2014. Have I to assume this is a consolidation period for an upper move ?? or may I intend like a overbought and expecting a downward movement?
  • #59,164
  • Feb 6, 2016 6:39am Feb 6, 2016 6:39am
Quoting andoseg2
If the price fall below demand zone, then a correction can take place within major Monthly trend. Already in with locked profits : {image}
On the weekly chart it closed with HUGE bearish candle engulfing two previous weekly closes. The bottom of the engulfing candle's body is 19 pips below the opening of the body of the lowest whole candle dated 2 Feb 2015 on the rising side of the Head and Shoulder pattern formed from November 2014. Thoughts on this development? Engulfing weekly candle sending strong signal more drops to come. At what point would we have confirmation of break of year long Head and Shoulder pattern and what target if it occurs? 700 pip decline from neckline?
  • #59,165
  • Feb 6, 2016 12:42pm Feb 6, 2016 12:42pm
How I see weekly support / resistance currently:
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  • #59,166
  • Feb 6, 2016 3:44pm Feb 6, 2016 3:44pm
Sell order placed at 117.407. Tp: 116.373 and Sl: 117.868
  • #59,167
  • Feb 7, 2016 1:22am Feb 7, 2016 1:22am
USD/JPY has been trending down with inflation expectations since Oct/Nov. Expectations for inflation(10yr) are at the lowest point since the great recession. 2 year spreads between the U.S. and Japan,however, are providing cushion for USD/JPY on the downside as they still remain very elevated. For this week, I expect most of the volatility to come around the Yellen testimony. I believe she will continue to remain hawkish regarding the U.S. economy and blame any slowdown on external factors. With that being said, I dont see this pair moving much below 116 this week.
  • #59,168
  • Feb 7, 2016 12:24pm Feb 7, 2016 12:24pm
Hey, all. I'm actually looking at USD/JPY longs to start the week. Here's why: http://www.forexmademillionaire.com/...look-2-7-2016/
check out my blog: forexmademillionaire dot com
  • #59,169
  • Feb 7, 2016 3:17pm Feb 7, 2016 3:17pm
Quoting SunTrader
How I see weekly support / resistance currently: {image}
Agreeing with you. This pair could break out of its consolidation and move lower on this very high of timeframes. It's probably just an overall correction, still longs should be careful taking this possibility into account.
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #59,170
  • Feb 7, 2016 8:10pm Feb 7, 2016 8:10pm
some might not agree with me, but usdjpt weekly chart does NOT say we have a bull in making.
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Meanwhile Fed and BOJ continue supporting a strong USDJPY backed up by the lastes job number last Friday.

It seems to me that it is everybody's game.

Tell me what you think.

Quoting FXSayWhat
some might not agree with me, but usdjpt weekly chart does NOT say we have a bull in making. {image} Meanwhile Fed and BOJ continue supporting a strong USDJPY backed up by the lastes job number last Friday. It seems to me that it is everybody's game. Tell me what you think.
Quoting SunTrader
How I see weekly support / resistance currently: {image}
ahhh i didn't see you already have the similar analysis posted 2 days ago.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #59,171
  • Feb 7, 2016 8:31pm Feb 7, 2016 8:31pm
FXSayWhat I see from your weekly chart you are looking at the potential.700 pip drop I mentioned in earlier post. There is the break of weekly uptrend, big bearish engulfing candle on Friday's close, and the potential break of head and shoulder pattern on weekly formed over last 14 months. We may rise during the week, but a lower weekly close looks likely, at which point I'll get set for a larger drop.
  • #59,172
  • Feb 7, 2016 9:15pm Feb 7, 2016 9:15pm
Quoting FXSayWhat
some might not agree with me, but usdjpt weekly chart does NOT say we have a bull in making. {image} Meanwhile Fed and BOJ continue supporting a strong USDJPY backed up by the lastes job number last Friday. It seems to me that it is everybody's game. Tell me what you think. {quote} {quote} ahhh i didn't see you already have the similar analysis posted 2 days ago.
I reckon that Japan will want its currency to remain between 120-125 for the time being due to poor GDP numbers in Japan. They want to attract more tourists over to Japan and make their products more competitive overseas to boost export numbers.
  • #59,173
  • Feb 7, 2016 9:26pm Feb 7, 2016 9:26pm
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Close one UJ long for +520 pips Leave one long floating {image}
Add back long - stop below 116
  • #59,174
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:01am Feb 8, 2016 1:01am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} I reckon that Japan will want its currency to remain between 120-125 for the time being due to poor GDP numbers in Japan. They want to attract more tourists over to Japan and make their products more competitive overseas to boost export numbers.
Yeah fundamental is still bull strong. Hope we will see dollar goes back up soon in the future, but it's technical outlook on weekly cannot be ignored either. If hike is delayed, one leg down on weekly is certain.
If u luv happiness, start w/ discomfort, make friends w/ pain and failure.
100 Hits 0 Miss All Time Return: 35.8%
  • #59,175
  • Feb 8, 2016 1:53am Feb 8, 2016 1:53am
Quoting Blackopal
{quote} On the weekly chart it closed with HUGE bearish candle engulfing two previous weekly closes. The bottom of the engulfing candle's body is 19 pips below the opening of the body of the lowest whole candle dated 2 Feb 2015 on the rising side of the Head and Shoulder pattern formed from November 2014. Thoughts on this development? Engulfing weekly candle sending strong signal more drops to come. At what point would we have confirmation of break of year long Head and Shoulder pattern and what target if it occurs? 700 pip decline from neckline?...
You know, in my view, this is the wrong way traders use candlestick patterns. For a candlestick pattern, in my view, you need several bars of the same colour, preferable ,wich are in a formation of higher high and higher low. These are the patterns with highest chance to win. Observe in the example below that every candlestick pattern is preceded by formation of candles wich are in Higher High and Higher Low formation.

Regarding your question, this is a move against major trend , so the profit target is conservative. Once the neckline is broken, you can go on low timeframes (D, H4) where, indeed, you will have a bearish trend. But if you want trade this H&S pattern on W timeframe, you should keep in mind you trade against the trend, on a correction, and you need manage aggresively the entry and adjust a conservative profit. I do not recommend trading this pattern on W timeframe,, that's why I;'ve looking for a aggresive entry from low timeframes where a bear trend could be identified.
Once the neckline is broke, potential target is 105.00 but nobody know if indeed it will go there. It is a good opportunity to stalk for low risk entries on H4 timeframe once the pattern is confirmed, because you will have bear trend on D , a stronger wave of money wich will sustain every of your entries on H4.
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Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #59,176
  • Feb 8, 2016 8:03am Feb 8, 2016 8:03am
USDJPY
The USD declined against the JPY last week, closing 3.39% lower at 116.98. In economic news, Japan’s final Nikkei manufacturing PMI fell slightly in January. Further, the nation’s consumer confidence index weakened as expected during the same month, led by plummeting oil prices and a slowdown in emerging economies dented consumer sentiment. In contrast, Japan’s monetary base and the Nikkei services PMI advanced in January. Separately, the BoJ’s December monetary policy meeting minutes indicated that the board members unanimously agreed that there was no need to bring about any adjustments in the prevailing monetary policy as the underlying inflation trend was improving steadily. The USD hit a high of 121.49 and a low of 116.30 against the JPY in the previous week. The pair is expected to witness its first support at 115.02 and second support at 113.06, while the first resistance is expected at 120.21 and second resistance at 123.44. Moving ahead, market participants look forward to Japan’s trade balance and machine tool orders, along with housing loans data, scheduled to be released this week.

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  • #59,177
  • Feb 8, 2016 8:33am Feb 8, 2016 8:33am
KURODA = BOJ =====



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  • #59,178
  • Feb 8, 2016 8:50am Feb 8, 2016 8:50am
Been bearish since @121... hmmm looks like the strong support (since Dec 2014) @115.++ is being tested again.
Hoping the bears will break this support... eyeing for TP @ 106 (hopefully...hmm depends on the flow of the market)
  • #59,179
  • Feb 8, 2016 9:34am Feb 8, 2016 9:34am
OUCHHH, stopped out at 116.150 from 116.000, stop was suppose to be 30 pips but because my last trade I doubled my volume I halved the stop and forgot to change the volume size on this trade oh dear, what a mistake
  • #59,180
  • Feb 8, 2016 10:03am Feb 8, 2016 10:03am
Seeing USDJPY. Somewhere around the corner, you can hear crying Kurd and ABE
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