Flag trading the trend

Don't worry DD, most of the time i don't have any idea what i am doing either! haha!

As you rightly say, it is entirely about finding out what works for each individual, be it trading style or timeframe etc
I am with H here in that i don't like to be waiting for my chips, (hence the 15sec and 1min charts!), if i can keep grabbing pippage whilst it is on a plate, it seems to suit.
I am basically combining a few methods so that they come together to increase the likely outcome.

For years i tried to do this on longer timescales, hourly candles mostly. I tried going down the timescales, but it all got a bit too muddy and i always ended up running for cover, now though, i guess it simply took experience to realise that everything is relatively the same except quicker! I find that means it much more likely to combine three factors for a single trade and also find plenty of them during the trading session.

The first ingredient for a likely set-up is Divergence (no i don't mean Harold!), i mean either Hidden Div for trend continuance (my fave) or neg/posi, for reversals. I find with the latter it needs to be quite extreme.

Here is a simple example of a typical set-up on the PXI (French market);



With the break of prev LH (and thus fresh HH), i am looking for a confirmed HL next to continue cycle, so we look for evidence. HD forms, so PA is stronger than underlying MACD and thus gives another clue that it would rather go higher than lower at that stage. Unfortunately we do not get a 123 to trade, but a simple Flag has formed. A break of this and importantly, the MACD recrossing in positive territory is good enough excuse to buy.

I prefer a 123 to occur, but i do have one or two other methods (excuses) to take a trade after i see HD form. For me, i am watching multiple charts looking mostly for gentle trends to trade...

I didn't trade the above, was merely for example!

I did cream it off of Cable yesterday. I don't trade it that often despite my handle!

In the morning i found a nice C&H trade with pullback to prev R turned S, followed by a 123 to get long;



But then it started trending beautifully creating non stop HD virtually all day;



Obviously too many set-ups to screen print each, but there were 123's galore. Obviously buying in the morning and holding would have been nice. Perhaps there was something on a longer timescale to suggest, but i had no idea that it would keep climbing all day. But then, that's the point isn't it. No-one knows for sure what will happen next, we just see a set-up and trade it...

Anyway, ignore the many arrows, and the fact the red lines are extended, there were many individual crossoversand trades. The case for HD and 123's combining is presented!

The first chart of your trend line break is a 2b and the the pb to it also 2 trades same spot

Haha, H ... thanks for the edit, I was about to walk out in a huff ..

... actually, I think CG has been posting to this thread longer than me (both with long gaps)... 2011 seems like a looooong time ago...

Haha, i said to myself, when i posted that, Harold will point out the 2b! ) Nice one!


Yeh JT, it's been an adventure (in more ways than 3!!!)

Further to last nights posts... Looking for minimum 2, preferably 3 positive factors to occur in a trade set-up, with my primary factor being HD (after determining trend of course!)

This moments ago on DAX;



So here, we have trend 'up' and a pullback which creates HD. I am introducing parabolic as a trigger. Here is the idea. Sometimes we will get a 123 from the low, but often not. Taking the 2nd parabolic trigger from the top if it coincides with HD forming appears to work frequently for added entries.

So, in the chart all we have in real time, is potential HD and a possible cross of MACD... when do we know for sure it is good to go? We don't, without a clear 123, however, from the top of the pullback in question, we have the first small section of green parabolic dots. Ignore those, there was no HD at that stage, but go upon second trigger instead, if HD has formed and MACD looks like crossing... the two are linked closely anyway and often if the cross has momentum, the same candle will also turn green on the MACD indicator simultaneously (vica versa, red for short)

I'm finding this method often pre-empts a 123 in any case. frequently the pullback for leg 3 of a 123, will create that second bout req'd. Hope this makes sense!

The above is kind of high frequency trading and in real time also throws up a few losers, but by trailing a stop using the greater/lesser of either the 20sma or the parabolic dots, R:R is generally highly skewed in our favour, thus even a 50/50 success rate racks up the points...

I think your strategy is straightforward enough and seems promising! I'm a big fan of HD, please keep posting the charts, you are certainly helping me a lot!

Hi BB, a large part of this strategy is finding the best kind of PA, the trend below on the Dow (similar on the Dax) this morning is where it's at;



(Example without HD, the next rise with HD was the one i posted earlier, but on the Dax, again using the 2nd para as entry)

I talked about the position of where the MACD crosses upon HD mattering. Here is why;



If traded, as a generalisation, expect gain to be sluggish until MACD crosses into positive territory (as per the one to the left on the chart).

Our brothers to the West still sleep... shhhhhhh!!!

Just a quickie for a few;

Dax 15sec;



First requirement, determine trend, next req, HD to form on pullback, next requirement, 123, 2nd parabolic trigger (or both). By the time of trigger MACD crossed and already much closer to neg territory

Nothing to trade yet

2b short from 44 +1

hey, thats where mine was too, i reset my clock this am, we'll see if that was the problem

Another +1 long 88

And yet another +1 long 2b at 79

It's being really tricky since lunch, what i like to call; the bastard formation

86 and 78 were my potential setups, waiting for it to break out of this 40 tick zone

Just not trending will wait till then.