Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
News trading discussion - continuation
- #2,102
- Feb 3, 2016 7:37am Feb 3, 2016 7:37am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,103
- Feb 3, 2016 9:27am Feb 3, 2016 9:27am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,104
- Feb 4, 2016 1:33am Feb 4, 2016 1:33am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Thoughts on "smart traders"
What killed the dollar in this environment?
Or rather, not what, but who. Dudley. He shoots the FOMC voter, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In your own words, he questioned the Fed raise interest rates this year.
- Current financial conditions tougher than in December
- At this time, it is very difficult to determine what will be the monetary policy further
- The significant global downturn hurt the US economy
- FOMC should make sure that the financial conditions reflect the real economy
If you read between the lines, it is not in vain Dudley turned to the concept of "December", the month when the interest rate was increased, and cast a serious blow to the Committee's intentions regarding its growing future.
"Confusion" about which we wrote just yesterday, eagerly poured out on sales dollar markets.
But Dudley united, PMI forecasts also contributed to optimism today:
US PMI - ISM Non-Manuf Composite 53.5 vs. 55
US PMI - Services (Markit) 53.2 vs. 53.7
Concerning the dollar, you can still remember the good old dependence on this schedule:
In general, today suffered a major surprise, perhaps, short positions in GBPUSD, and the dollar is well warmed up before Friday's Non-Farm Employment Change.
What killed the dollar in this environment?
Or rather, not what, but who. Dudley. He shoots the FOMC voter, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. In your own words, he questioned the Fed raise interest rates this year.
- Current financial conditions tougher than in December
- At this time, it is very difficult to determine what will be the monetary policy further
- The significant global downturn hurt the US economy
- FOMC should make sure that the financial conditions reflect the real economy
If you read between the lines, it is not in vain Dudley turned to the concept of "December", the month when the interest rate was increased, and cast a serious blow to the Committee's intentions regarding its growing future.
"Confusion" about which we wrote just yesterday, eagerly poured out on sales dollar markets.
But Dudley united, PMI forecasts also contributed to optimism today:
US PMI - ISM Non-Manuf Composite 53.5 vs. 55
US PMI - Services (Markit) 53.2 vs. 53.7
Concerning the dollar, you can still remember the good old dependence on this schedule:
In general, today suffered a major surprise, perhaps, short positions in GBPUSD, and the dollar is well warmed up before Friday's Non-Farm Employment Change.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,105
- Feb 4, 2016 4:03am Feb 4, 2016 4:03am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,107
- Feb 4, 2016 5:11am Feb 4, 2016 5:11am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,109
- Feb 4, 2016 5:45am Feb 4, 2016 5:45am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
I am a GBP lover and I was sure of the weakness of Pound around the BoE meeting minutes which would impact badly on Pound. Hence, recovered my loss. Although right now GBP looks direction less to me. I am not sure whether it will rebound from here or go back weak. I will wait for 5-6 more hours and will decide on it. Looking forward to the same. I hope to see your speculations on the GBP!! waiting for good responses!
I trade - what I see.
Rules trader news:
1. Do not believe the analysts.
2. Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,110
- Feb 4, 2016 5:45am Feb 4, 2016 5:45am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,111
- Feb 4, 2016 7:04am Feb 4, 2016 7:04am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,113
- Edited 9:24am Feb 4, 2016 9:14am | Edited 9:24am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Friday
15:30
02/05/16
US Number of employed outside agriculture HOT & DANGER
(US Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"
All the key data to the NFP has received the remaining weekly jobless claims are unlikely to have meant something.
All PMI were worse than expected, which may not hint at the deteriorating conditions in the future, since the indicators on forward-type "intuitsionnye".
This component of Employment in the manufacturing index of 45.9 versus 48.0 in the non-production - 52.1 against 56.3.
Serious + 205K from ADP on Wednesday should not be considered.
This catastrophic blow to sentiment became Dudley, who questioned the wisdom of a rate hike, and the previously tar in a barrel and threw Fisher, who does not like low inflation rate.
At CME likelihood of interest rate rises in March dropped to 14% at the beginning of the year, the probability is about 40%.
This, oddly enough good for any kind of trade - more noise, more fun. In the interests of our dollar roll back to NFP release, and after the publication of negative data. This scenario is desired (refer to the situation prior to bidding).
conflict indicator.
________________________________________________________________________________________
In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to the different degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics on reactions
US Number of employed outside agriculture
date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast (US Non-Farm Employment Change)
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast (US Unemployment Rate)
Reaction trading pairs in points
Comments
06/11/2015 86 0 92 Height couple
02.10.2015 -59 0 80 Fall
04/09/2015 0.1 44 -44 and Fall rollback and rollback on salaries growth data did not support the drop
07.08.2015 -10 0 23/30 spiking
02.07.2015 -10 -0.1 Fall 38-50 pairs
05/06/2015 55 90 0.1 Growth couples
05/08/2015 0 45 -4.5 and rollback to drop back
03/04/2015 0 90 -119 Fall couple
03/06/2015 60 45 0.1 Growth couples
01/09/2015 12 0.1 40/15 spiking on 40/15
______________________________________________________________
Good luck everybody!
15:30
02/05/16
US Number of employed outside agriculture HOT & DANGER
(US Non-Farm Employment Change), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
Thoughts on "smart traders"
All the key data to the NFP has received the remaining weekly jobless claims are unlikely to have meant something.
All PMI were worse than expected, which may not hint at the deteriorating conditions in the future, since the indicators on forward-type "intuitsionnye".
This component of Employment in the manufacturing index of 45.9 versus 48.0 in the non-production - 52.1 against 56.3.
Serious + 205K from ADP on Wednesday should not be considered.
This catastrophic blow to sentiment became Dudley, who questioned the wisdom of a rate hike, and the previously tar in a barrel and threw Fisher, who does not like low inflation rate.
At CME likelihood of interest rate rises in March dropped to 14% at the beginning of the year, the probability is about 40%.
This, oddly enough good for any kind of trade - more noise, more fun. In the interests of our dollar roll back to NFP release, and after the publication of negative data. This scenario is desired (refer to the situation prior to bidding).
conflict indicator.
________________________________________________________________________________________
In order to understand how to trade the pair reacts to the different degrees of deviation from the fact that news of its forecast, see a visual table of statistics on reactions
US Number of employed outside agriculture
date
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast (US Non-Farm Employment Change)
Deviation from the fact that the news of her forecast (US Unemployment Rate)
Reaction trading pairs in points
Comments
06/11/2015 86 0 92 Height couple
02.10.2015 -59 0 80 Fall
04/09/2015 0.1 44 -44 and Fall rollback and rollback on salaries growth data did not support the drop
07.08.2015 -10 0 23/30 spiking
02.07.2015 -10 -0.1 Fall 38-50 pairs
05/06/2015 55 90 0.1 Growth couples
05/08/2015 0 45 -4.5 and rollback to drop back
03/04/2015 0 90 -119 Fall couple
03/06/2015 60 45 0.1 Growth couples
01/09/2015 12 0.1 40/15 spiking on 40/15
______________________________________________________________
Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,114
- Feb 4, 2016 9:29am Feb 4, 2016 9:29am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Hi VVfish, How about tomorrow RBA and retail sale AU?? What do you see??
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,116
- Feb 5, 2016 6:14am Feb 5, 2016 6:14am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,117
- Feb 5, 2016 6:21am Feb 5, 2016 6:21am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Great weekend to everyone.
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,118
- Feb 5, 2016 6:29am Feb 5, 2016 6:29am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
NFP
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,120
- Feb 5, 2016 1:45pm Feb 5, 2016 1:45pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,171 Posts
Thoughts on "smart traders"
Dollar tacked tacked yes .....
Mario Draghi all its
In his speech this week, Mario Draghi, with a special predilection notes the low level of inflation: Perhaps, there is no doubt that at the next meeting of the ECB, we will see a further significant easing of monetary policy of the bank.
"The dynamics of inflation is much lower than what we expected in December"
Highlight Non-Farm
The US dollar remained on edge all week, the reason for this, the uncertainty of regulation of interest rate expectations in March (the next meeting FOMC). Highlights volatility proved to statements by the Fed.
Since the beginning of the week Fisher (FRS, Vice-President) be questioned hawkish mood in the committee: frightened him personally, inflation, and the possible impact of the weakness of the global component. In addition, indicators of PMI indexes their persistence of negative dynamics, slowly but surely, the market acted on nerves attaining the hopes of a rate hike in March.
Against this background, a significant shot on USD was interviewed Dudley (Federal Reserve, New York), from which we learned that a further tightening of the Fed's policy is supposed to be in doubt.
Loretta Mester (Fed Cleveland) is more optimistic, but her words in favor of raising the interest rate the Fed were temporarily muted the forthcoming publication of Non-Farm:
- Politics The Fed meets economic status
- I did not revise his views on the economy
- Fedrez react if the situation would be worse
- Negative interest rates - unnecessary talk
- Do not expect a recession care
- The economy at full employment
On Friday, a final chord, labor market data published. Non-Farm Payrolls came not without highlights: despite the weak growth of the number of employed below the forecast, the positive data, and here's why ...
US Change in NonFarm Payrolls 151K against 190K
US Unemployment Rate 4.9% versus 5%
US Average Hourly Earnings m / m 0.5% against 0.3%
The rate of unemployment in the background of wage growth declined 4.9% versus 5.0%, slightly, but taking into account the salaries of 0.5% against 0.3% the data can be assumed that the US economy, as noted by Mester, really close to full employment indicator, which is not can not stir up speculation about the upcoming FOMC meeting. In addition, 4.9% - is the lowest unemployment rate since 2008.
Recall that the positive growth rate of Average Hourly Earnings can be expected to support and accelerate inflation. Inflation, in turn, is the main component of bone of contention for the monetary policy of the Fed than it (inflation) is lower, the lower the chances of increasing the number of iterations increase Fedreza interest rates this year.
McCafferty all ...
The Bank of England held a meeting and presented a quarterly report.
The interest rate and APF program has not changed, but the voting structure suffered: from camp hawks left Ian McCafferty - the only one who had previously voted for a rate hike as much as 6 times in a row from August 2015 to January 2016.
GBP, respectively, responded to this fact, a surprise.
After the market interested in its quarterly inflation report.
Lowered forecasts GDP growth:
- 2016 from 2.5% to 2.2%
- 2017 to 2.7% from 2.4%
It is predicted that inflation will reach the target level set by the bank for 2 years.
Markets do not involve raising interest rates until the second quarter of 2018, while gradually grow talk of a possible interest rate cut, but we've been through this before.
Mark Carney said:
- Global financial conditions have deteriorated
- The decision to leave the rate passed unanimously (one might say unanimous)
- Repeat the rhetoric that the next move likely rate increase than decrease
- He reiterated that now is not the time to raise interest rates
- Lower interest rates at the meeting was not discussed
Catch press the word Brexit, the noise from the referendum on the exit from the EU will become louder.
Also note the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Ben Broadbent, who added their two cents to the common fund:
- The low level of inflation may affect the salary
- Falling oil prices is positive for us
- Still confident of economic growth
Well, take a look at growth rates of industrial production next week.
New Year next week
It is necessary to pay attention to the celebration of Chinese New Year on the lunar calendar next week: 5 days banking days off - not bad.
Canada and the labor market
In the shadow of the US labor market data, Canada also presented its Non-Farm:
The unemployment rate rose to 7.2% at the forecast and the previous value of 7.1%.
Gain quantitative indicator Employment Change also fails -5,7K 6K against predictive. But if you dig deeper, you can see that part of the employees on a full-time increased by 5,6K, but the partially employed and spoiled Statistics -11,3K.
Milk New Zealand
Lotion continues to fall, the next auction on February 2 prices lose further -7.4%.
labor market statistics is mixed, with a prevalence towards positive.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is prone to mitigate the monetary policy, but the manager Wheeler said that "is not appropriate to reduce the interest rate only because of the fall in oil prices" (here, "according to Freud", then - I think he cut.
The most important blow for the NZD now may be his excessive growth. In this case, the RBNZ will be nowhere to go, the rate would have to be adjusted.
Australia is waiting for statistics on labor
Belarus kept the interest rate unchanged, but issued a soft protocols. Partly tendency to reduce the rate still remains, the market reaction to the negative deviation retail sales confirmation.
The key for the AUD will be the labor market - reducing his push for action.
PS. Do not miss the interest rate in Norway next week.
Dollar tacked tacked yes .....
Mario Draghi all its
In his speech this week, Mario Draghi, with a special predilection notes the low level of inflation: Perhaps, there is no doubt that at the next meeting of the ECB, we will see a further significant easing of monetary policy of the bank.
"The dynamics of inflation is much lower than what we expected in December"
Highlight Non-Farm
The US dollar remained on edge all week, the reason for this, the uncertainty of regulation of interest rate expectations in March (the next meeting FOMC). Highlights volatility proved to statements by the Fed.
Since the beginning of the week Fisher (FRS, Vice-President) be questioned hawkish mood in the committee: frightened him personally, inflation, and the possible impact of the weakness of the global component. In addition, indicators of PMI indexes their persistence of negative dynamics, slowly but surely, the market acted on nerves attaining the hopes of a rate hike in March.
Against this background, a significant shot on USD was interviewed Dudley (Federal Reserve, New York), from which we learned that a further tightening of the Fed's policy is supposed to be in doubt.
Loretta Mester (Fed Cleveland) is more optimistic, but her words in favor of raising the interest rate the Fed were temporarily muted the forthcoming publication of Non-Farm:
- Politics The Fed meets economic status
- I did not revise his views on the economy
- Fedrez react if the situation would be worse
- Negative interest rates - unnecessary talk
- Do not expect a recession care
- The economy at full employment
On Friday, a final chord, labor market data published. Non-Farm Payrolls came not without highlights: despite the weak growth of the number of employed below the forecast, the positive data, and here's why ...
US Change in NonFarm Payrolls 151K against 190K
US Unemployment Rate 4.9% versus 5%
US Average Hourly Earnings m / m 0.5% against 0.3%
The rate of unemployment in the background of wage growth declined 4.9% versus 5.0%, slightly, but taking into account the salaries of 0.5% against 0.3% the data can be assumed that the US economy, as noted by Mester, really close to full employment indicator, which is not can not stir up speculation about the upcoming FOMC meeting. In addition, 4.9% - is the lowest unemployment rate since 2008.
Recall that the positive growth rate of Average Hourly Earnings can be expected to support and accelerate inflation. Inflation, in turn, is the main component of bone of contention for the monetary policy of the Fed than it (inflation) is lower, the lower the chances of increasing the number of iterations increase Fedreza interest rates this year.
McCafferty all ...
The Bank of England held a meeting and presented a quarterly report.
The interest rate and APF program has not changed, but the voting structure suffered: from camp hawks left Ian McCafferty - the only one who had previously voted for a rate hike as much as 6 times in a row from August 2015 to January 2016.
GBP, respectively, responded to this fact, a surprise.
After the market interested in its quarterly inflation report.
Lowered forecasts GDP growth:
- 2016 from 2.5% to 2.2%
- 2017 to 2.7% from 2.4%
It is predicted that inflation will reach the target level set by the bank for 2 years.
Markets do not involve raising interest rates until the second quarter of 2018, while gradually grow talk of a possible interest rate cut, but we've been through this before.
Mark Carney said:
- Global financial conditions have deteriorated
- The decision to leave the rate passed unanimously (one might say unanimous)
- Repeat the rhetoric that the next move likely rate increase than decrease
- He reiterated that now is not the time to raise interest rates
- Lower interest rates at the meeting was not discussed
Catch press the word Brexit, the noise from the referendum on the exit from the EU will become louder.
Also note the Deputy Governor of the Bank of England Ben Broadbent, who added their two cents to the common fund:
- The low level of inflation may affect the salary
- Falling oil prices is positive for us
- Still confident of economic growth
Well, take a look at growth rates of industrial production next week.
New Year next week
It is necessary to pay attention to the celebration of Chinese New Year on the lunar calendar next week: 5 days banking days off - not bad.
Canada and the labor market
In the shadow of the US labor market data, Canada also presented its Non-Farm:
The unemployment rate rose to 7.2% at the forecast and the previous value of 7.1%.
Gain quantitative indicator Employment Change also fails -5,7K 6K against predictive. But if you dig deeper, you can see that part of the employees on a full-time increased by 5,6K, but the partially employed and spoiled Statistics -11,3K.
Milk New Zealand
Lotion continues to fall, the next auction on February 2 prices lose further -7.4%.
labor market statistics is mixed, with a prevalence towards positive.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is prone to mitigate the monetary policy, but the manager Wheeler said that "is not appropriate to reduce the interest rate only because of the fall in oil prices" (here, "according to Freud", then - I think he cut.
The most important blow for the NZD now may be his excessive growth. In this case, the RBNZ will be nowhere to go, the rate would have to be adjusted.
Australia is waiting for statistics on labor
Belarus kept the interest rate unchanged, but issued a soft protocols. Partly tendency to reduce the rate still remains, the market reaction to the negative deviation retail sales confirmation.
The key for the AUD will be the labor market - reducing his push for action.
PS. Do not miss the interest rate in Norway next week.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...