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  • #201
  • Feb 1, 2016 5:13am Feb 1, 2016 5:13am
Quoting swatti
yeah ..... i missed the entry.... im not gonna jump in on the market ... guess today is a no trading day for me ;( some analysing in the evening to prepare myself for tomorrow
It's really good to recognise when you're best off being an observer and not an active market participant. It takes a lot of self-control too!

I closed that short position for an 8.5 pip gain. My winrate at the moment is around 65%, so closing for just less than 1:1 isn't awful here and I could sense a reversal coming when I saw those wicky candles right at the fib/round level and right on the turn of the hour. I may look to re-enter, quite happy with how this one turned out though.

Mike

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Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #202
  • Feb 1, 2016 5:22am Feb 1, 2016 5:22am
Quoting mjrsaunders
{quote} It's really good to recognise when you're best off being an observer and not an active market participant. It takes a lot of self-control too! I closed that short position for an 8.5 pip gain. My winrate at the moment is around 65%, so closing for just less than 1:1 isn't awful here and I could sense a reversal coming when I saw those wicky candles right at the fib/round level and right on the turn of the hour. I may look to re-enter, quite happy with how this one turned out though. Mike {image}

well played mike.

an entry for me would be interesting as soon as levels hit the wedge again.... id take it short from there....
i dont believe that it will happen for some reason so im out ...and not even watching so ill miss that entrypoint anyway haha.


i think ill do some housework.... sounds a relaxing alternative
  • #203
  • Feb 2, 2016 5:15am Feb 2, 2016 5:15am
Getting my levels sorted out for today's trading.

AUDUSD

The RBA held rates steady today and the Aussie has tanked considerably in the hours since. Looking at a long position from 0.7025 with 61.8 fib confluence. Failing that, 0.6975 with the 50 fib or 0.6950 with the 38 fib are also potential prices for long positions.

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EURUSD

We're getting pretty high in the channel now, so I'm looking for short positions at or near 1.0925 and 1.0950.

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GBPUSD

She's a beauty right now, later in yesterday's session we saw some very considerable bull moves. The price backed away from the top of the channel though, and there could be a few good setups in either direction today. Particularly looking at shorts around 1.4450.

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Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #204
  • Feb 2, 2016 5:25am Feb 2, 2016 5:25am
USDJPY

I'm going to continue playing the channels on the UJ, shorting high and getting in long when the price is low. Shorts @ 121 flat and 121.25 and longs only with confirmation on lower time frames at key levels such as 120.25.

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USDCAD

I don't like the USDCAD right now... while it's trading within a channel it is quite messy with a lot of trading up and down. I'll still look to short around the 61.8 fib level or higher. Long positions will have to wait until we get back down to around 1.3925 or lower.

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USDCHF

I just missed a big short trade on the USDCHF from the top of the current downwards channel, just below 1.0225. I don't trade the swiss franc too often and mostly use it for reference. Setups like this one can work nicely though.

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Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #205
  • Feb 2, 2016 5:44am Feb 2, 2016 5:44am
I'm in short the GBPUSD at the 1.4425 key level using a descending trendline with a big ADX overextension as an odds enhancer.

Mike

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  • #206
  • Feb 2, 2016 6:09am Feb 2, 2016 6:09am
+11.4 pips of profit on that one is fine by me. Closed just above the opposing round level and near the previous swing high. It's a good thing I did too, as my stop would've been taken out for break even if I went for more than 15 pips.

Mike

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  • #207
  • Feb 2, 2016 8:27am Feb 2, 2016 8:27am
hello there wow mike you were busy there...

i had a great short overnight trade in GU.... i was basically done for the day due to that.

i wanted to enter Long in AUD/CAD but didnt get filled as it took off for the long run so i cancelled my position.... i opted another short in GU but didnt have the guts so stayed out.... to my mind its a rising wedge and it surpassed the 2/3 were it should have broken the lower boundary to continue the bearish trend so i stayed away.
i entered the trade in my demo account though and voila it lookes pretty good.

well i guess i missed the best for the rest of the day....

ill keep you posted if i see anything else
  • #208
  • Feb 2, 2016 8:56am Feb 2, 2016 8:56am
opting for long in the DAX and short in euro/USD
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  • #209
  • Feb 2, 2016 8:50pm Feb 2, 2016 8:50pm
Quoting swatti
hello there wow mike you were busy there... i had a great short overnight trade in GU.... i was basically done for the day due to that. i wanted to enter Long in AUD/CAD but didnt get filled as it took off for the long run so i cancelled my position.... i opted another short in GU but didnt have the guts so stayed out.... to my mind its a rising wedge and it surpassed the 2/3 were it should have broken the lower boundary to continue the bearish trend so i stayed away. i entered the trade in my demo account though and voila it lookes pretty good....
Haha, I do a full top-down analysis of all 6 of those pairs every day before I trade but I normally don't post all of them on the thread. Last night there were opportunities across the board though

I ended up calling it a night pretty early yesterday, we're experiencing a bit of a heat wave on the East coast of Aus right now and I don't have air conditioning in my office... even at night the temperature is horrendous! Bring on winter...

Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #210
  • Feb 2, 2016 9:21pm Feb 2, 2016 9:21pm
Waiting for the trendline break before I short...anytime soon now i hope!!!
  • #211
  • Feb 2, 2016 9:45pm Feb 2, 2016 9:45pm
Quoting mjrsaunders
{quote}....we're experiencing a bit of a heat wave on the East coast of Aus right now and I don't have air conditioning in my office... even at night the temperature is horrendous! Bring on winter... Mike
Tell me about it mate!
At 2am it was still 27 degrees!! Thank f*#k for ducted A/C!

Nice thread and analysis by the way
Wealth comes from what you keep, not what you earn
  • #212
  • Feb 3, 2016 4:07am Feb 3, 2016 4:07am
unsure bout trading today....ill keep my eyes open though
  • #213
  • Feb 3, 2016 5:28am Feb 3, 2016 5:28am
Quoting trader34
{quote} Tell me about it mate! At 2am it was still 27 degrees!! Thank f*#k for ducted A/C! Nice thread and analysis by the way
Cheers T34! I'd say that air con of any kind will be high on my list of priorities in the near future...

Anyway, late start for me tonight. Lets have a look at some charts!

AUDUSD

More bad news for the Aussie today as the import/export balance came out as more negative than previous consensus predicted. To counter this was a strong performance in building approvals, suggesting that the construction industry is doing better than might have been expected.

Direction is unclear for me, so I'll probably steer clear of the Aussie tonight. Having said that I'll consider a short at the top of the current bearish channel or at any round level with price action confirmation.

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EURUSD

Same situation as last night, short near the top of the channel.

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GBPUSD

We have ourselves an upside channel break. Volatility should be high so positions on either side of the market are great. Shorts back into the channel or longs for the breakout play. I'm really enjoying the GBPUSD for trading at the moment.

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Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #214
  • Feb 3, 2016 5:44am Feb 3, 2016 5:44am
Before I go on, I'll give a shameless advertisement to my other thread here. I'm working on a series of posts at the moment that deals with the question of self-awareness as a trader. Feel free to check out the thread and I hope you find my ideas helpful.

USDJPY

Long positions are hugely favoured although it may be a bit late. Price is sitting right at the bottom of the main ascending channel. We're getting back to pre-BoJ negative rate decision levels, so I'll be watching very keenly to see where the price goes from here.

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USDCAD

I've had a few exceptional trades come out of this pair in the last few weeks, and the moves from 1.41 and 1.4075 are perfect examples. This is why I use round levels as entries. The price is pushing towards some pretty low territory, so while counter-trend long positions are tempting it'll be prudent to be mindful of the potential for this pair to move really far, really quickly. I'm only looking for high probability setups at quality levels and don't know if I'll be trading the USDCAD tonight. If it cracks 1.395 then I'll definitely have a look at a long position.

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USDCHF

I don't mind a long trade from 1.015, the price is sitting pretty low in the main channel.

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Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #215
  • Feb 3, 2016 5:52am Feb 3, 2016 5:52am
Entered short on the GBPUSD at the 1.45 round level with a 5-minute reversal candle (plus a 1-minute ADX odds enhancer).

Mike

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Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #216
  • Feb 3, 2016 5:56am Feb 3, 2016 5:56am
yeah the GU is great at the moment.... ill stay clear of that due to the break out ... so im unsure....
on eurusd im thinking of taking it short ... although it has been kissing that upper boundary a lot lately and in shorter time intervals.
moreover we seem to hit the end of a triangle... it could be a flag looking more and more like a triangle to me though...


oh almost 4got...

what do you think will be the effect of the crude oil inventories release later this day mike?
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  • #217
  • Feb 3, 2016 6:13am Feb 3, 2016 6:13am
Quoting swatti
yeah the GU is great at the moment.... ill stay clear of that due to the break out ... so im unsure.... on eurusd im thinking of taking it short ... although it has been kissing that upper boundary a lot lately and in shorter time intervals. moreover we seem to hit the end of a triangle... it could be a flag looking more and more like a triangle to me though... oh almost 4got... what do you think will be the effect of the crude oil inventories release later this day mike? {image} {image}
Hey Swatti,

I agree, price action on the EURUSD is looking tighter and tighter. It's definitely exerting some upward pressure. To be completely honest the more I've been trading of other pairs the less I've wanted to so much as look at the EURUSD... I'll go where the opportunities are and I think there are better trades to be had elsewhere right now.

As for the crude inventories number, typically the USDCAD is affected the most given the nature of the two economies in question. Last time this number came out there was a lot of initial uncertainty before a decisive move (from memory against the USD) about 10-15 minutes later. It could definitely be worth watching. Honestly though I'm not usually awake trading when that number comes out as it'll be 1:30am here by that time.

In other news, I seem to have done it again with the GU trade, took 11.4 pips waiting for a better price for re-entry... and I got one I suppose

Mike

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Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #218
  • Feb 3, 2016 6:27am Feb 3, 2016 6:27am
Quoting mjrsaunders
{quote} Hey Swatti, I agree, price action on the EURUSD is looking tighter and tighter. It's definitely exerting some upward pressure. To be completely honest the more I've been trading of other pairs the less I've wanted to so much as look at the EURUSD... I'll go where the opportunities are and I think there are better trades to be had elsewhere right now. As for the crude inventories number, typically the USDCAD is affected the most given the nature of the two economies in question. Last time this number came out there was a lot of initial uncertainty...
nice move on GU mike

im in a short trade in eur/usd at the mo looking at about 10 pips right now.... although my goal is somewhere around 40 pips... fingers crossed that it will work out like that
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  • #219
  • Feb 3, 2016 7:23am Feb 3, 2016 7:23am
damn got taken out
  • #220
  • Feb 3, 2016 11:00am Feb 3, 2016 11:00am
EURUSD 1.1060-1.1090 looking pretty good for a short position

USDCAD looking good for long position at 1.38501.3800
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