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Mr. Scott's Crayon Thread

  • #4,081
  • Jan 30, 2016 10:00pm Jan 30, 2016 10:00pm
Quoting squawk
{quote}
Hey Squawk,

Think you might like this one in case you missed it.

http://angrybearblog.com/2016/01/fed-messed-up.html

Thing is, nobody seems to mention(or realize) that they are already tight in comparison to the neutral level and getting tighter via other cb's. Very strange, seems everyone is lost somewhere in recent history....Neutral rate ain't 2 or 3 like it used to be. Economy certainly is not overheating. They waited because they were scared, and then they raised because they were scared. Good point in article is by waiting they actually increased the global overhang of debt that only exacerbates the current problem. One and done like BOJ? Two and done like BOE? When negative?

OK rant over, back to charts.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,082
  • Jan 30, 2016 10:16pm Jan 30, 2016 10:16pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hey Squawk, Think you might like this one in case you missed it. http://angrybearblog.com/2016/01/fed-messed-up.html Thing is, nobody seems to mention(or realize) that they are already tight in comparison to the neutral level and getting tighter via other cb's. Very strange, seems everyone is lost somewhere in recent history....Neutral rate ain't 2 or 3 like it used to be. Economy certainly is not overheating. They waited because they were scared, and then they raised because they were scared. Good point in article is by waiting...
Thanks Scott good reading. There seems to be a massive underlying problem with the carry of US dept in the emerging markets. Last estimate I heard was 11 trillion in comparison to the 1 trillion that caused the tiger economies of the late 90s to crash. Who knows how it will all play out in the end but wouldn't want to be on the other side of that trade...
  • #4,083
  • Jan 31, 2016 6:58am Jan 31, 2016 6:58am
AUDUSD
Weekly, daily and H4 charts, a few points of interest as different patterns emerge, weekly and daily pivots for confluence.
Weekly Bfly not complete, daily ABCD down is possible and that would complete pattern, that yellow neckline and the right shoulder ofinverse H&S on H4 invalidate this view. If price holds above neckline and breaks above last top H4 most likely we will get target of H&S at 0.7250.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD W1 Bfly.png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD D1.png Size: 62 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSD H4 ABCD.png Size: 49 KB
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #4,084
  • Jan 31, 2016 7:31am Jan 31, 2016 7:31am
GOLD
D1
If we are going to get another leg down that point could become pivot, so eyes on 1145.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #4,085
  • Jan 31, 2016 7:36am Jan 31, 2016 7:36am
Hi Guys
This week should be exciting.With NFP bulls just might bite.
Hoping USD bulls push the USD up again so we can short it even more
UC AU NU all look good but prefer retrace before buying them
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #4,086
  • Jan 31, 2016 9:12am Jan 31, 2016 9:12am
Quoting pedro319
AUDUSD Weekly, daily and H4 charts, a few points of interest as different patterns emerge, weekly and daily pivots for confluence. Weekly Bfly not complete, daily ABCD down is possible and that would complete pattern, that yellow neckline and the right shoulder ofinverse H&S on H4 invalidate this view. If price holds above neckline and breaks above last top H4 most likely we will get target of H&S at 0.7250. {image} {image} {image}
Hi Pedro,

Thanks for charts, had eyes on that bottom and possible continuation as well. Think chart is around here somewhere but she is complicated so I will post a couple to highlight areas of interest.

Start with one that I think is already around here.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDDaily131.jpg Size: 326 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,087
  • Jan 31, 2016 9:14am Jan 31, 2016 9:14am
Good place to look and complies with other chart.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDH1131.jpg Size: 329 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,088
  • Jan 31, 2016 9:16am Jan 31, 2016 9:16am
This is larger one, think it is same as Pedro.

Edit: No pictures as too messy but same place.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: AUDUSDWeekly131.jpg Size: 276 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,089
  • Jan 31, 2016 9:44am Jan 31, 2016 9:44am
Quoting Mr. Scott
This is larger one, think it is same as Pedro. Edit: No pictures as too messy but same place. {image}
everything you've posted is what I was seeing

https://www.mql5.com/en/charts/45583...markets?bind=1
Wooooohooooo or Boooooohooooo
  • #4,090
  • Jan 31, 2016 12:45pm Jan 31, 2016 12:45pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
Good place to look and complies with other chart. {image}
This one is confluence with neckline on my chart, maybe we will get a couple of pivots there too.
Cheers.
We watch the charts from every angle so you don't have to!!
  • #4,091
  • Jan 31, 2016 2:31pm Jan 31, 2016 2:31pm
Mapping out some trade ideas for the CAD. But its all about oil at the moment. If we are bottoming you expect a re-test of the at least 30 level.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,092
  • Jan 31, 2016 2:43pm Jan 31, 2016 2:43pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hi Pedro, Thanks for charts, had eyes on that bottom and possible continuation as well. Think chart is around here somewhere but she is complicated so I will post a couple to highlight areas of interest. Start with one that I think is already around here. {image}
I like this setup Scott.
  • #4,093
  • Jan 31, 2016 2:47pm Jan 31, 2016 2:47pm
Quoting squawk
Mapping out some trade ideas for the CAD. But its all about oil at the moment. If we are bottoming you expect a re-test of the at least 30 level. {image} {image} {image}
Hey Squawk,

See that area and that wedge. Looking for confluence bounce, got it on Friday but no follow through. ECB and BOJ (Fed) give oil reprieve....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily131.jpg Size: 295 KB
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,094
  • Jan 31, 2016 2:57pm Jan 31, 2016 2:57pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Hey Squawk, See that area and that wedge. Looking for confluence bounce, got it on Friday but no follow through. ECB and BOJ (Fed) give oil reprieve.... {image}
Hi Scott

I agree just have to wait and see.Think ECB will make next move. I've got 2 areas mapped for a buy and thats 1.39 and 1.34 ish areas. I'm looking for this pair to be topping but It will be a nice stretch if it runs to 1.34 and possible nice buy at that level although watching the wedge at 1.39 as well. Lots of downward volume at the moment.
  • #4,095
  • Jan 31, 2016 3:15pm Jan 31, 2016 3:15pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Hi Scott looks good. Also like the CADNZD. CAD is so linked to Crude at the moment as their monetary policy seems to be in line with what crude will do. Even on the lower level there doesn't seem to be much break away from that relationship. Interesting to see what will happen next Thursday? I think UC is a Crude technical and Cad fundamental trade? There is a great trade there but maybe some pain in the top pattern? unless something substantial makes Crude run a V style bounce. {image} {image} {image}
Some pain at the top with this trade but still really like the longer term trade here. Closed one position, expecting some possible retrace this month. Lot of premium built into the CAD on Oil so needs to unwind but expect bumpy triple top to play out.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,096
  • Jan 31, 2016 3:23pm Jan 31, 2016 3:23pm
Quoting squawk
{quote} Some pain at the top with this trade but still really like the longer term trade here. Closed one position, expecting some possible retrace this month. Lot of premium built into the CAD on Oil so needs to unwind but expect bumpy triple top to play out. {image} {image}
Nice one Squawk, I remember.
The world you desire can be won. It exists.. it is real.. it is possible..
  • #4,097
  • Jan 31, 2016 3:31pm Jan 31, 2016 3:31pm
Quoting Mr. Scott
{quote} Nice one Squawk, I remember.
  • #4,098
  • Edited 7:20pm Jan 31, 2016 7:07pm | Edited 7:20pm
Most trading volume since 1.25 area on the CAD. One to watch
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,099
  • Feb 4, 2016 11:22pm Feb 4, 2016 11:22pm
XTI
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #4,100
  • Feb 5, 2016 12:42am Feb 5, 2016 12:42am
A couple I am watching but there are many at the moment.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURGBP1D_FEB5.png Size: 64 KB
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