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"Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade." Summary 37 replies

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Ratios & Harmonics: a Different Way to Trade

  • #15,681
  • Jan 30, 2016 8:32pm Jan 30, 2016 8:32pm
Quoting AlexC
Nice of you to do this Mr. Pip.
Thank you Alex nice of you to be here. It will be fun I hope you enjoy it.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,682
  • Jan 30, 2016 9:33pm Jan 30, 2016 9:33pm
i hear you. :-) I actually wrote an indicator to record differences in spread for several brokers, and tallinex and finfx are a rare breed that don't spike spread randomly. they spike when expected, during news events and such. But Oanda and even FXCM had variations that I just couldn't tolerate. (This wasn't just a couple pips, I'm talking significant spread moves. It's not always detectable, unless you're unlucky enough to get stopped out of a trade, because sometimes it happens within seconds and unless you have an indicator that will show you or record these numbers you'll never see it.)

Quoting Mr. Pip
{quote} Those games they play is why I moved to the futures market. No more games at my expense. Cheaper trading too.
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
  • #15,683
  • Jan 31, 2016 6:01am Jan 31, 2016 6:01am
Quoting Timwelch
i hear you. :-) I actually wrote an indicator to record differences in spread for several brokers, and tallinex and finfx are a rare breed that don't spike spread randomly. they spike when expected, during news events and such. But Oanda and even FXCM had variations that I just couldn't tolerate. (This wasn't just a couple pips, I'm talking significant spread moves. It's not always detectable, unless you're unlucky enough to get stopped out of a trade, because sometimes it happens within seconds and unless you have an indicator that will show you...
Interesting.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,684
  • Jan 31, 2016 8:02am Jan 31, 2016 8:02am
Damian I want to echo a lot of what has already been said, taking so much time out for us, with all your teachings, the thread and video content, I am very thankful to you. I personally have made great progress in my trading since participating in this thread. And I know this is the type of trading education I want to continue with. You have made great sacrifice to educate us, and I for one cannot thank you enough.

We owe you so much.

Regards
Aj1
  • #15,685
  • Jan 31, 2016 8:07am Jan 31, 2016 8:07am
Quoting Mr. Pip
Spread the word to your FOREX Factory friends and anyone else this will be the first time something like this has been done and free. The information is priceless and so is my time. This is for you and will make me the most hated trader by the people that sell junk systems out there. Remember that 90% of what you will buy or read is junk. This is the real goods take advantage of this once in a lifetime opportunity. Come Monday I want to see this place flooded come one come all. The rules will be strict and the haters will be dealt with.
  • #15,686
  • Jan 31, 2016 9:49am Jan 31, 2016 9:49am
I agree completely! Thank you so very much!!!

Quoting Aj1
Damian I want to echo a lot of what has already been said, taking so much time out for us, with all your teachings, the thread and video content, I am very thankful to you. I personally have made great progress in my trading since participating in this thread. And I know this is the type of trading education I want to continue with. You have made great sacrifice to educate us, and I for one cannot thank you enough. We owe you so much. Regards Aj1
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
  • #15,687
  • Jan 31, 2016 11:54am Jan 31, 2016 11:54am
Hello Traders,

Here are the ground rules for the training ahead. I will ask that everyone follow them as it will make it easier on me to help you and there is a lot to cover so we don't need to get side tracked. I will present it to you in the order by which it is used. This way you can learn the proper sequence and how to apply what has been learned.

1. No posting of any material that is not related to the lesson of the week.

2. Posting will be limited to the DOW Futures or the EURUSD 15M period. What I will teach you is relevant to any time frame or instrument but for the sake of continuity and to make my life easier that is what we will work with.

3. The weekly video with be uploaded to YouTube on Sunday and the link will be posted in the thread like the videos in the past. Also with the video there will be a post on the lesson.

4. I want to see as much participation from everyone as possible. Remember, this is your opportunity ask questions and to post your work for review. This is not a one way highway. I want to see if you are getting it. Opportunities like this do not come often or at all. DON"T WASTE IT!

5. DO THE WORK! Laziness will keep you where you are. The Market will not wait for you to catch up and neither will I.

6. Have fun.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,688
  • Jan 31, 2016 12:26pm Jan 31, 2016 12:26pm
My Trading objectives are as follows:

 

  1. To maintain situational awareness at all times.
  2. To exploit trading opportunities in the direction of market order flow and against the direction of market weakness.
  3. To stay profitable and maintain discipline
  4. Keep it simple and follow the trade plan
  5. To accept responsibility for whatever happens.
  6. To be better then the person or entity I'm trading against. To be the best!


I believe that if you embrace your trading with these core objectives and a solid approach you can reach any performance goal you set out to achieve. We are a package deal. To be in the top 10% you must have a solid trade plan, a solid money management plan and be in total control of your emotions. You need all three to achieve longevity. This is a business not a hobby.

And remember that we cannot control market direction but we can control our response to the market.

I will now teach all of you how to properly read a price chart. No longer will the market appear random, the noise will disappear and you will find control where most see ciaos. Once you master these steps you, will find yourselves privileged and in a place very few ever find in what we do.

After you can process the information the chart is giving you, you become an empowered and efficient machine that takes actions based on skill and facts. You will know immediately when a setup has strength or weakness and most importantly your trading will hit the next level. It does not matter what your setup is what system you use because I will show you the tools that are going to let you know how and when to take that trade and your profitability will improve dramatically.

It took me years, blood, sweat, tears and much sacrifice to figure this all out. I had no short cut. I am your short cut, I will shorten your learning curve. So put in to this what I have and I promise you that one day you will find yourselves as blessed as me. My payoff is to see you succeed so be honest with me and yourselves. We are going to be completely transparent and provide feedback and your stories of success and failures. I have always been 100% honest with you I expect the same in return. We will see the good, the bad, and the ugly. I have a commitment and when I return I will write the post on lesson one and upload the video.

I hope you are ready for this and I hope you told everyone. Talk to you all soon!!!

If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,689
  • Jan 31, 2016 4:47pm Jan 31, 2016 4:47pm
It feels like I'm about to take a major turning point to success in my trading business and life. A dream come true. This is exciting! Thanks Damien! ;-)
  • #15,690
  • Jan 31, 2016 5:02pm Jan 31, 2016 5:02pm
Quoting Mr. Pip
My Trading objectives are as follows: To maintain situational awareness at all times. To exploit trading opportunities in the direction of market order flow and against the direction of market weakness. To stay profitable and maintain discipline Keep it simple and follow the trade plan To accept responsibility for whatever happens. To be better then the person or entity I'm trading against. To be the best! I believe that if you embrace your trading with these core objectives and a solid approach you can reach any performance goal you set out to...
i work full time and only study in the evenings,,,,,but that dont matter,,,i will be studying ,,,if i succeed in my analysis then i will progress,,,,if im wrong in my analysis i will learn from mr pips comments and i will succeed
  • #15,691
  • Jan 31, 2016 5:27pm Jan 31, 2016 5:27pm
Quoting devontrader
{quote} i work full time and only study in the evenings,,,,,but that dont matter,,,i will be studying ,,,if i succeed in my analysis then i will progress,,,,if im wrong in my analysis i will learn from mr pips comments and i will succeed
Same here, work full time, trade part time
  • #15,692
  • Jan 31, 2016 6:46pm Jan 31, 2016 6:46pm
Okay Traders,

Let's get started! The first thing I want you to is to get rid of all of the indicators from your charts! One you learn to process the information that is on a price chart they will offer you nothing that you should not already know. I will teach you how to trade from the right side of the chart where price has not printed yet. Indicators can only tell you what has already happened. They have 0 predictive value and therefore cannot offer you any help. This very lesson alone will have you aligning yourself with what price will do moving forward with over 70% accuracy that means that your trading should improve dramatically. So here we go!

Structure Analysis:

Structure Analysis is the foundation to proper chart reading. It is also by far the most neglected component to technical analysis among traders. Market Structure is how the chart speaks to us technical analysts and lets us know with very high degrees of probability where it wants to go next. It is our job to pick up on these clues to properly and accurately forecast where the market is heading.

Contrary to the beliefs of many of my colleges the market is not random and forecasting its future path with accuracy is completely possible.
Market Structure is much more then horizontal lines that indicate Support or Resistance or on a more complex level areas of Supply and Demand. This is where novice technicians seek to identify imbalances between the two and where they fall prey to the highly skilled 10%ers.
Performing proper and meaningful Structure Analysis in tells the proper identification of certain structural landmarks, the relevance of those land marks and the proper expectation that derives from the combination of these three components.

Supply and Demand or Support and Resistance have nothing to do with structure analysis. I will address this later.
I use four basic descriptions to identify the structural landmarks I am particularly interested in. These landmarks assist me in forming expectations for price to follow. These four basic landmarks and the respective expectations that should follow are:

1. New Structure High (NSH) – This is a new high in a price swing and forms from an impulse leg or move up. This is a clear message that the market intends to move higher. The expectation from this is for price to correct or as some would call retrace into the next expectation.

2. Higher Low (HL) – This is an expectation from a NSH and is known as the retracement, correction or the corrective swing. This is how the market confirms to us that it indeed wants to move higher. The expectation from this is another impulsive move into another NSH.

3. New Structure Low (NSL) – This is a new low in a price swing and forms from an impulse leg or move down. This is a clear message that market intends to move lower. The expectation from this is for price to correct or retrace into the next expectation.

4. Lower High (LH) – This is an expectation from a NSL and is known as the retracement, correction or corrective swing. This is how the market confirms to us that it indeed wants to move lower. The expectation from this is another impulsive move into another NSL.

It is vital to have and trade with expectations as they keep you in line with the strength of the market as well as with proper order flow. These basic expectations of Structure Analysis alone will help you forecast with a very high degree of accuracy where the market intends to move to next.

Here is a video that demonstrates this process and it's accuracy. As always please comment and post on the content and start showing me your work.

https://youtu.be/lH3h8oJ5K9k

If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,693
  • Jan 31, 2016 7:29pm Jan 31, 2016 7:29pm
Fantastic video! Your mic was fine, I didn't hear much background noise. I might have heard your dog walking across the tile floor once, but it wasn't distracting, I was completely engaged in listening to what you had to teach. :-) It could have likely been my own dog, that's how engaged I was. lol

Quoting Mr. Pip
Structure Analysis:
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
  • #15,694
  • Jan 31, 2016 8:19pm Jan 31, 2016 8:19pm
Ok, here's my chart. I'm on EURUSD 15m. **I went back to aug 5, because I think we're all going to be posting nearly the same chart otherwise. If you want me to post recent chart, I will. :-)

11 Noted expectations. 2 were broken. So 9/11 == 81.81% successful expectations hit.

I labeled what looks to me like an area of indecision, which is why I didn't mark more breaks of Expectation. This is all about patience and reading order flow (which you will get into later) and that was why I held some patience in marking more in that area.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2016-01-31 at 9.17.04 PM.png Size: 182 KB
Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent - JMK
  • #15,695
  • Jan 31, 2016 8:30pm Jan 31, 2016 8:30pm
Well done Tim. I believe I forgot to mention so everyone need to read this post. The tails are not important. What is important here is the close. To achieve a NSH or NSL we must achieve a higher or lower close. The trials don't create a NSH or NSL. you did fine but I want to make sure that is clear to everyone.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,696
  • Jan 31, 2016 8:49pm Jan 31, 2016 8:49pm
This concept is fundamentally correct but the missing pieces of puzzle are the median and the tipping points/levels. So unless and until those points/levels are being located and identify everything is still 50/50 or 60/40 at best.


I am just sharing my trading thoughts without any malice or ill-intent.

Good luck and happy trading.

GS.
  • #15,697
  • Jan 31, 2016 9:13pm Jan 31, 2016 9:13pm
Quoting genghistar
This concept is fundamentally correct but the missing pieces of puzzle are the median and the tipping points/levels. So unless and until those points/levels are being located and identify everything is still 50/50 or 60/40 at best. I am just sharing my trading thoughts without any malice or ill-intent. Good luck and happy trading. GS.
The lessons to come will increase the effectiveness of this one. Remember I said that one lesson build on the next. Your assessment is inaccurate. I'm sure you mean no malice but how could make such a comment. Have you seen the video have you seen the first chart posted by Tim? If by tipping point you mean structure that will be addressed soon enough. I will tell you that it is unnecessary and structure analysis provides and accurate expectation for where price will go next.
If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
  • #15,698
  • Jan 31, 2016 9:19pm Jan 31, 2016 9:19pm
Ok if you are uncomfortable by my comments I will retract what I have commented..

Good luck and good-bye.

GS.
  • #15,699
  • Jan 31, 2016 9:21pm Jan 31, 2016 9:21pm
The one thing about this is that we need to know if the price when it rise to the last nsh, will it be a nsh or a lh ? The problem is we only know this after the price break the last nsh for a nsh or fail to break the last nsh to give a lh. The common denominator is AFTER. We need to know right now not after to make the trade. If anyone has any pointers to this I will be all ears ?

Quoting genghistar
This concept is fundamentally correct but the missing pieces of puzzle are the median and the tipping points/levels. So unless and until those points/levels are being located and identify everything is still 50/50 or 60/40 at best. I am just sharing my trading thoughts without any malice or ill-intent. Good luck and happy trading. GS.
Can you share more details about this 'the median and the tipping points/levels' ?
  • #15,700
  • Jan 31, 2016 10:05pm Jan 31, 2016 10:05pm
Great video, Mr. Pip! Thanks for sharing it as ever.

So what I am getting from this is basically that we are looking for a pattern of HHs and HLs or else LHs and LLs to determine whether we are in an uptrend or a downtrend. Once the direction of price is thus determined, it is expected to continue *until* the high or low of the swing we are working with is taken out in the opposite direction. Once this occurs, there is an expectation of a change in trend, with LHs and LLs (if the prior trend was bullish) to follow.

I don't have access to the computer I trade from right now but will post a chart tomorrow.
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