EURUSD

Mido what time frame normally you scalp on?

1m/5m timeframes. I usually want to hold a trade for seconds or minutes then get out of market, It get so intense some times as I have to decide quickly to close position. It requires a lot of concentration, little faults will cost me money but for my personality it is better than sitting and trying to guess where price will be heading in days or weeks or months. What is your trading style?

I do both ( scalp or swing .) but if I scalp I need to know the position of the higher time frame( M15 or H1) If I'm confident that it shows the same long or short position then I can place the order other wise I wait for the right entry. for my swing trade normally I us H1 H4 with conformation of daily.

Ducks are still sitting happily at the moment, doing what ducks do. February/March are shaping up to be wild months. I'm happy to be on the sidelines until 1.111x. Up there the Euro will be a strong sell for the mid term leg to 1.018x

So with these people who create an additional username, how does it work? does the new name/account he/she created gets banned or both the old & new?

Again....all this below is just personal opinion and commentary...Don't try to trade off it.

That analysis I posted was based after 1mn chart moves and major Fib levels on 1H chart. As ranges expand, go to the next level up to see moves from a better viewpoint...4H chart. As ranges contract, go down a level on the charts to see moves more clearly. The next significant decision points are there. Posted one earlier.

Bottom line: It was a lucky call. I've made 10 times as many that were way off.

My opinion is that "clear political wills being declared" in one country/region mean much less after a few months of global market moves. The major global economies are so connected now that when one farts it stinks up the other's rooms. When one gets sick, the others get the flu. Last month the USFR burped. On Friday the BOJ farted. Here's the thing. USDJPY is set to go to 130 by end of year, or by autumn, maybe 135. 125 is in, no doubt. JPY when it moves up goes 2.00/3.00 clip and consolidates. After 125, 130 is just a stone's throw away. That's not political will, they would never say it, but it's governmental reality as long as the current PM and head of the BOJ are still in charge. They need 125 for their economy to break even with exports. 130 massive profits, until it drops under 130 again. How will 125 JPY to USD affect the other markets? How about 130 JPY? How about 135 JPY? How about human greed and easy money setting in after that, what will happen to JPY after that? I pray that sensible minds and governments allow natural economic cycles to prevail rather than create asset bubbles which lead to revolutions and wars. What am I talking about?

There was an analyst I saw on YT, a recorded lecture, forgot his name, but he had publicly predicted the Lehman crash months/years in advance before anyone had any idea, people thought he was nuts at the time. He said, last year or the year before, USDJPY will go to 160 by 2016/2017 and then fairly quickly to over 200 - 230 - 280 then finally to over 330 which is post war levels by late 2017 and by 2019 at the latest. His basis was that the JGov would devalue their currency to sustain their economy until they absolutely couldn't devalue anymore (read: by that time, no one would take JPY as exchange risk is too high). By that time he said game over. What he meant by that was probable war, especially if there is an oil squeeze.

BOJ is betting (read: gambling) on cheap oil right now. Even their finance minister said he doesn't think the oil situation will change soon. We all know that when oil moves it can move 30 to 50 a barrel or more within a year. Lack of oil was one of the reason's that started WW2...In this case, it would be the lack of the ability to pay for it. If oil was at 120+again, and JPY was over 300, and to make things worse, oil was priced in Renminbi (2 out of 3 of these have historical precedent and the 3rd one is possible several years after China gets reserve currency status which will be soon)....what would happen?

After the earthquake/tsunami/nuclear accident in Japan a few years ago, it's un-PC to do nuclear energy in Japan, and most plants there are still off. I don't remember the analyst mentioning anything after the year 2020 his dates seemed all before that, which means before the Tokyo Olympic Games. He said once JPY breaches 160 how quickly it will get to 200 and once it breaches 200 how surprisingly quick will get to 300. I don't remember the analyst's name. I pray to God that he is wrong, and everyone here should be hoping and/or praying that that never happens too, because everyone of us is going to be fucked in one way or another if/when it does. His timeline is within 3 to 5 years out. I know that was a lot more than you were asking for, but I don't give much overt value to publicly announced political wills. It's what they don't say/don't mention that has much more weight.

For those that think the Yen cant move that much that quickly, look where the Yen was 2 years ago go back 2 and 3 years. It was the strongest out of the three, and now soon will be the weakest, look where the EURO was 2 and 3 years ago at the same time and where is EUR now? What will happen as Yen gets even weaker? What will (or rather what has happened already to EURUSD as Yen gets weaker and dollar gets stronger?). It's pretty obvious....

As far as the timing goes for individual trades...it's VERY DIFFICULT to time exactly what will happen within 10 to 12pips all the time (unless your intials start with K). That call I made Friday was just stupid blind luck.

There are going to be folks here again saying the Yen doesn't control the EURUSD just like the numbnut earlier who said he doesn't even trade the pair so he doesn't care.

Just for final clarification here since there are many that are poor readers here....

The BOJ DOES NOT CONTROL THE DOLLAR OR THE EURUSD...HOWEVER, major policy moves by the BOJ affect the outcome of the USDJPY pair, vis a vis value of the JPY, thus affecting the USDJPY pair and value of USD, thus also affecting the EURUSD pair and value of EUR.

Just like the Lehman crash fucking up Japan's and Europe's markets and economies too...When one major currency or CB farts, it stinks up the other's rooms.

The only thing that will save this fucking ship now (the global economy) is the U.S. not raising this year again and eventually going negative IR too, thus increasing JPY and EURO strength. But for right now, expect much more foreign reserves going into USD. If China takes more dumps though, they will be cashing in some USD chips so the EURUSD pair could bounce from that as well, but right now they're making more from parked USD this year than last year, so why would they cash in? They can just play the devalue game too to temporarily save their economy..they already started to. The whole problem is that a vicious cycle has already been started and the U.S. will probably not go negative and most likely continue on course, which will exacerbate the issues globally.

When one major currency or CB farts, it stinks up the other's rooms.

USDJPY
This is done, a bit more than projected targets, next task is to spot another reversal pattern for continuation down, if I don't get the pattern I won't trade it as move up was quite strong and market surpassed area that I thought should hold for continuation, also I will be looking into new pivots resistances Montlhy and weekly, if this was just retracement, those pivots should hold.

EURUSD
I can see few bullish patterns atm and invalidation points are quite close so R:R for longs is not bad. H&S and Bfly Sell H4 invalidation marked by red circle, that is risk. Will update as situation changes.

https://www.icn.com/en/category/technical-analysis/

Take the length of that big H4 candle going up on USDJPY. Double it and add it to the top, there's where you will find the first major consolidation zone for the USDJPY pair. That's where BOJ/Current PM/Big Conglomerates in Japan want to see JPY, because it would be good for their profits. As long as oil is cheap(er), that's what they will be gunning for. 125 USDJPY will be new base because that what they need to sustain/break even in corporate profits/trade balance. That move by BOJ Friday was the beginning of an all out/balls out move by BOJ to keep their currency down, because that's how Big Corporates sell more cars/computers/TVs/electronics/etc. overseas.

You ain't seen nothing yet in USDJPY. Market may try to push it below 120. BOJ will just respond by going to zero and negative IR quicker. The policy is in place as of Friday. As long as the current gov administration is in charge this is the "new" JPY. Most sane governments do what they can to defend their currency against attack. The Japanese kamikaze government is attacking their own currency to make more corporate profits. Crazy yeah, greedy yeah, suicidal yeah, in the end, it's pointless, but to them it's the quickest way to "turn the economy around".

In Jan 2012 USDJPY was under 80, no one thought it would go back to parity, which it did within a year. When it did no one thought it would go over 105 let alone 120 which it did. Now one is really saying other than a few analysts that it will go over 125. Look at at where USDJPY is in January of each year last several years and see where it goes by the end of the year. Japan's fiscal year ends March 31 and the new fiscal year begins April 1 (if I have the dates correct). They are gearing up now.

BOJ is not saying that they would like to see 130. They have already revealed their cards with their move on Friday. No other CB is going to stop them either.

I'd would be very careful trying to pick a top in this pair. Personally think it's better to scale in low leverage longs until a good size position is built and then unload all 10.00 or 20.00 plus up the road.

All of the above is just personal observation/speculation. Take it at your own risk.

Here is an opinion. If it does not get to 1.0888 this week it could get ulgy.. But maybe Draghi will send it back to 1.09668
You will never know what is going to happen. If we don't see it. Look for a fall to 1.074xx maybe even lower.

Just remember 1.0888 That's my long signal a 4 year old gave me : - )

The trend is down... You can't and never will find the bottom. So why even try. Get a small short position and wait for conviction. When I say small...
I mean as small as possible. Then load up when the bulls are flying at.0888

That way you never leave money on the table.

cheers
Ryder

monday , it looks like a consolidation first,

this reports will change theoutcome :

Chinese PMI
UK PMI
RBA Rate decision
Ger labor report
NZ labor Report
BOE rate decision : neg interest rates (i dont think so soon)
US Non farm Payroll
CA Employment record.

let me know what you think from a novice experience.

I think UJ may come DOWN to PP Sunday, Then more UP

China cannot like what the BOJ did. It's going to be interesting to watch China's reaction (no winners here it seems). In any event, both want a stronger dollar and that seems inevitable short term -- just hope the US can sustain. If EU, China and US all start barfing at the same time... Volatile mix

i think the NFP and BOJ will determine the outcome, lots of volatility next week. will have higher SL due to spike,i decide to be a spectator .

anyone uses zerohedge for twitter ? any other recommendations

Be aware there was about 5000 contracts brought from 10860 down to the 10809( that sell off from 109 was only about 900 contracts short) on the futures contract so looks like they longer term players want some EU . A test higher might be due on higher time frames AKA been down in the 105 to 113's for about a year now a poke upto 1.11800 might be on the cards sometime this month or a drop to 1.05500 to 1.0650 just thoughts time and volume will tell

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...72#post8722772





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>> Quinton’s Simple & Effortless Trading thread

Let's see if it goes down this week.

Monday morning 00:05

No major gappage down this morning. Good for bears.

840 - 780 or 830 - 770 range today unless some more wicked news comes out. Major Fib levels at 770 and 710, strong break below 770 sets new target to 710. It's Monday, but markets might be a little jumpy today after last Friday (not a normal Friday last week).

No more armchair analysis today. Have EAs and coding to attend to.