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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,941
  • Jan 29, 2016 8:03am Jan 29, 2016 8:03am
Quoting chester123
{quote} this is one of the many days I really dont get WHY... lol
The same old story .... But this time I missed the train .... Let's c how monthly closes ... Too tired tracking the boring chop zone ...
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,942
  • Edited 9:41am Jan 29, 2016 9:25am | Edited 9:41am
Quoting sisse
{quote} !!!... point is mini break up (via dovish FED and a lot better GDP revision) in Equities will carry the board...failure is back to a rather BEARISH monthly close leaving RISK intact for February... I hope it helps .. sisee
The revision was already on the calendar. November 24 changed from 1.5 to 2.1 then 2.1 to 2.0 as reported on 22 December.

IMO, Dollar was just the best of a really bad bunch (even moreso now after BOJ.) still even after the dovish FED and equities just poured fuel on the fire which was easier to see. And we were coming off strong levels on DXY which you mentioned already 98.50.

Still tightening monetary policy relatively by far; strong, key recent employment data; just minor drawbacks on the data front-so at least good enough to fade the top of a range like we saw.
  • #138,943
  • Jan 29, 2016 9:51am Jan 29, 2016 9:51am
Hi Sisse,

I have noticed a triangle on H4 on EU. Could you share your opinion on that? According to my current view EU (if breaks waves B and D lows) will make lower low, and will reverse afterwards. If not reverse, at least it will get back to the origin of the thrust from triangle. Could you share your opinion on that from FA point of view? Do you think this vew is viable?

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  • #138,944
  • Edited 10:27am Jan 29, 2016 10:13am | Edited 10:27am
Quoting sisse
Markets about to enter in comatose mode until the FED tomorrow with US equities with a last chance today pre FED flirting to complete the continuation move (buy the rumour sell the fact) and close on the highs pre reports. A break 1905.xx [equities] will be enough to unlock rather quickly final target 1940.xx [in play]with soft intermediate stops 1921.xx [check]..
...and I will take that....clearing 1921.xx in Equities a couple of points below and we are pretty much done for the DAY, Week and Month across the board...

Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} The revision was already on the calendar. November 24 changed from 1.5 to 2.1 then 2.1 to 2.0 as reported on 22 December. IMO, Do....
Yes indeed you are absolutely right. I was just writing on the fly but I see why it sounds so wrong. I wasn't thinking in the causal effect on the revision but rather that both reports were cleared and NY opening will decide (as they just did). Thanks for the correction !!!.

... sorry about that confusion for others that maybe scratching their heads...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,945
  • Jan 29, 2016 10:59am Jan 29, 2016 10:59am
Quoting Maks
Hi Sisse, I have noticed a triangle on H4 on EU. Could you share your opinion on that? According to my current view EU (if breaks waves B and D lows) will make lower low, and will reverse afterwards. If not reverse, at least it will get back to the origin of the thrust from triangle. Could you share your opinion on that from FA point of view? Do you think this vew is viable? {image}
mate .... about time you notice that we are in consolidation!!!. Don't get me wrong but that's exactly why most traders around here struggle (they notice too late the trends or the consolidations because most TA and charts drawings will only be clear after the moves are well underway). You will get better bang for the buck if you get in synch with the markets sooner otherwise you will be always chasing the market. If i tell you a sentiment that could validate your TA you will end up even worst off...

Let me give you a hint. I made a quick search and these are my last 3 short term updates in the Euro:


--> From the DEC 3
Quoting sisse
Inflation a disaster...ECB is missing all targets but economic recovery is inline ....

First update after ECB. Changing short term outlook in the Euro from BUY to STRONG SELL.
--> From the Jan 12
Quoting sisse
Euro failed to break down but extended the lows in a deep breach 1.086x intraday to 1.081x....

--> Reconfirming EURO short term outlook in NEUTRAL with a quick in (1.083x) and out (1.097x max ext 1.108x) test of highs on the making with BOE carrying the board after tomorrow ...
--> From JAN 21
Quoting sisse
final update of the ECB day:

--> Reconfirming short term outlook (since the last 2 weeks)[/highlight]...
As you can see they are pretty much perfectly align with the market before the actual short term legs start. This is not because i have the Holy Grail TA but rather because they are aligned with the macro flows.

So go over the weekend to your charts, you have the clear areas and dates already and try to draw your own map explanation of why this or that from your TA view (when did it start, how did it start, when it changed, why changed, etc) and make your own TA annotations on each leg ....

Only after try to see if something trigger inside of you and apply it to the next play. Either if the consolidation break up or down is irrelevant ...the process is more important if you want to learn ...

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,946
  • Jan 29, 2016 11:15am Jan 29, 2016 11:15am
Quoting sisse
{quote} mate .... about time you notice that we are in consolidation!!!.
Sisse, thank you for your reply. Yes, I noticed that we are in consolidation. What is concerning me is that according to the TA map that I see we are making the lower low and reverse. I mean really reverse, back to 1.40's. But FED wants to normalize and as I understand it should bring Euro down. Do you think they might step back and flood the market with money? Swiss Bank and BOJ have negative rates already. I mean what's the plan that the FED has? I saw a couple of charts recently and they show strong correlation between M2 monetary base and S&P500. The correlation is 97%! If FED starts tightening there will be debt problems (shares used as collateral to get loans etc.) I am sorry, I don't have financial education and maybe I'm wrong. But in your opinion, what are the chances that FED will change its mind? Especially that its elections year in US and democrats don't want to be liable for crushing the market. Thank you very much.

Here are the graphs I mentioned (M2 and S&P500 correlation)

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  • #138,947
  • Jan 29, 2016 12:29pm Jan 29, 2016 12:29pm
First update from the FED on the Energies close. No changes in OIL but in GOLD that is holding the break for the close:

--> Changing short term outlook in GOLD from Neutral to Soft Buy

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,948
  • Jan 29, 2016 12:41pm Jan 29, 2016 12:41pm
Second round of updates for the M close after BOJ / FED in currencies that are outside of a rational range for any changes at the close today:

--> Reconfirming GU mid term outlook in STRONG SELL but --> changing GU short term outlook from SELL to NEUTRAL
--> Changing mid term outlook in AJ (@ Gator) from SELL to NEUTRAL.

But more importantly ...

--> Changing short term outlook in the DOLLAR from Neutral to soft sell all still on imminent break up for the mid term leg...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,949
  • Jan 29, 2016 12:58pm Jan 29, 2016 12:58pm
Third important update for the Equities close:

As expected (@ FOOL ) "CB stroke back" flooding the markets from all fronts ECB, FED, PBOC, BOJ and bastards didn't think twice to ride the pig. Strong monthly close and markets were saved by CB for the second time (AUGUST was the same) from the break down in January.

---> Reconfirming mid term outlook in UBER NEUTRAL but more importantly ---> we have pretty much set the LOW of the QUARTER (prolly the year but that is no confirmed yet with OIL, China and Risk still on the air)

While on the short term S&P right on time for the close about to reach 1940.xx (for those in the trade ES have a handful of points left to clear final target)

--> Leaving the short term outlook in BUY till next week NFP to evaluate again ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,950
  • Edited 3:26pm Jan 29, 2016 1:25pm | Edited 3:26pm
yep, as gammase1 said above, face rip time for US equities, looking forward to a super bullish remainder for Q1 if oil will cooperate. Oil doesn't have to do much, just keep from sliding to the cellar and freaking everyone out.

Have a good weekend, all....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,951
  • Jan 29, 2016 1:55pm Jan 29, 2016 1:55pm
...and finally last update from the FED in the Euro.

As expected since the opening Euro about to roll around 1.084x. No surprises for the close in one of the choppiest and smallest monthly ranges in the history of the pair. Its going to blow very soon but for now...

--> 1.097x (@ IMARICH1) held steady the close so no changes ---> reconfirming mid term outlook in strong SELL

On the short term a rather bearish close today and we couldn't held 1.086x for the W close so no changes until next week... ---> confirming the short term outlook in NEUTRAL but stops at 1.097x will be raised today and the FED dovish play is intact for next week NFP ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,952
  • Jan 29, 2016 3:46pm Jan 29, 2016 3:46pm
Quoting Maks
{quote} Sisse, thank you for your reply. Yes, I noticed that we are in consolidation. What is concerning me is that according to the TA map that I see we are making the lower low and reverse. I mean really reverse, back to 1.40's. But FED wants to normalize and as I understand it should bring Euro down. Do you think they might step back and flood the market with money? Swiss Bank and BOJ have negative rates already. I mean what's the plan that the FED has? I saw a couple of charts recently and they show strong correlation between M2 monetary base...
Check out the first chart, which shows a larger sample size detailing the relationship between M2 and the S&P500. The second chart shows a much larger sample size of the relationship between the Monetary Base and the S&P500. As you can see, over the longer run, the correlation drops dramatically.

The chances of the Fed reversing December's increase are very slim and doing so in the current environment would be unnecessary and result in a total and absolute loss of credibility. The Fed is currently forecasting four 0.25% increases in 2016, which is a prospect I think unlikely, given the impact such a course would have on the dollar (tightening above and beyond market expectations when the other CBs are easing) and an already struggling industrial sector. The latest pricing for Fed Funds futures is anticipating no increase to the benchmark rate in 2016, with the next increase coming in Feb 2017.


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  • #138,953
  • Jan 29, 2016 6:35pm Jan 29, 2016 6:35pm
Hi Guys

Just a bit of research i've been doing on the KIWI I know my editing is amatuer, but i'm a trader not a graphic artist :-). I've been trading for about 3 Years and have never really been one for the forums, this is a first for me. My Trading Style is Elliot Wave.

https://www.globaldairytrade.info/en/product-results/

Craig.
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Also if your Trading NZD/JPY It's an extremely risk sensitive pair due to the Interest rate divergence. It correlates really well with the S&P 500 and you can use this market to confirm your trades.

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Phenomenal Return This Year: na
  • #138,954
  • Jan 29, 2016 8:12pm Jan 29, 2016 8:12pm
Quoting gammase1
The latest pricing for Fed Funds futures is anticipating no increase to the benchmark rate in 2016, with the next increase coming in Feb 2017.
They laid the groundwork for the backpedal move, they watching global developments, etc - anyway, we need a nice rally up to November to help Hillary.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,955
  • Jan 31, 2016 3:41pm Jan 31, 2016 3:41pm
USD/JPY - last bets for bear reversal in 121.20/60 area
69
  • #138,956
  • Feb 1, 2016 11:00am Feb 1, 2016 11:00am
Quoting The Fool
.... looking forward to a super bullish remainder for Q1 if oil will cooperate. Oil doesn't have to do much, just keep from sliding to the cellar and freaking everyone out. ....
wti wit da hard backslide......any nameless flunky from OPEC now knows he can work the jawbone in the right room and the oil price will pop.....flunky's friends get richer.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,957
  • Edited 12:33pm Feb 1, 2016 11:58am | Edited 12:33pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} wti wit da hard backslide......any nameless flunky from OPEC now knows he can work the jawbone in the right room and the oil price will pop.....flunky's friends get richer.....
Indeed i also got early break down alerts !!! triggered in OIL for the close today. China keeps heading down. Soft numbers today from the US in manufacturing and a slightly soft NFP (expected) will be more than enough to push it back to the floor.

US Equities starting to cough at the current highs and we are still handful of ticks away from final target. I am clearing final positions with the closing range with or without the final crumbs in my target. We are aligning for a test of lows in a rather sharp/risk off leg.

---------------- ----------

Quoting sisse
...On the short term a rather bearish close today and we couldn't held 1.086x for the W close so no changes until next week... ---> confirming the short term outlook in NEUTRAL but stops at 1.097x will be raised today and the FED dovish play is intact for next week NFP ... sisse
On the Euro, simple ride intraday after we took 1.084x. Short term technicals catching up with the latest FED developments and we finally look set for the short term leg up (1.084x-> 1.099x-> max ext 1.114x) to set the HIGH of the Month and Quarter as macro stops at 1.097x were raised for this week after the M close.

Taking 1.086x today is enough to trigger: --> a change in short term outlook since early Jan in Euro from NEUTRAL to Soft Buy.

Here, actively managing final positions (and looking for a reverso) in Equities, looking for tickets in OIL and not much to do at these levels in Euro with same levels, same trades, same all....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,958
  • Feb 1, 2016 12:51pm Feb 1, 2016 12:51pm
Quoting sisse
...A break 1905.xx [check] will be enough to unlock rather quickly final target 1940.xx [check]with soft intermediate stops 1921.xx [check]...
...and i will take that.... Clearing final target in US Equities with the test 1940.xx but rally is very feeble (via dovish FED ...). Markets and numbers across the board are aligning for dark clouds in the short term. Obviously the natural confirmation will be NFP ...

Only a solid NFP will put a hold on the negative sentiment across the board so --> Changing short term outlook in Equities from BUY to NEUTRAL at least until NFP...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,959
  • Edited 1:52am Feb 2, 2016 1:31am | Edited 1:52am
DAX looks as a dead cat bounce (chart 1) - very soon loosing 961x,xx is gonna take us all the way to the lows and beyond (chart 2)= 921x,xx as a target for diverged lower low as a final exhaustion leg number five. In any case if 921x is not to hold I would expect a very quick panic sell-off to 834x,xx as the complete ultimate possible low = low of 2014 and AB=CD correction target. But that of course seems way too overstretched in short term.

Bet all this is gonna happen hand in hand with SP500/oil move.
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  • #138,960
  • Feb 2, 2016 9:49am Feb 2, 2016 9:49am
A rather simple day. All markets behaving in smooth flows. Oil keeps sliding aggressively, US Equities as widely expected retraced and Euro keep grinding slowly up.

Not much to do here for the rest of session tracking soft EURO 1.092x for the roll....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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