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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,921
  • Jan 28, 2016 12:27pm Jan 28, 2016 12:27pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Shoulda Woulda Coulda....didn't ... flawless call on the Euro but not a penny in the bank... very well done all that trade the close last week (i know of a couple here ..) ... Euro completing main target 1.094x but still struggling at the highs. Hard part is done with a break 1.091x today unlocking the direct dovish play from the FED flows (and obviously triggering clearing time for shorts) ...expecting soft profit taking for the monthly close flows as we enter in major levels for trading. On the rest of the board nothing new, Equities,...
flawless ride with zero drawdown ...not going into end of month flaws though ...all eyes on BoJ for the rest !
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #138,922
  • Jan 28, 2016 12:32pm Jan 28, 2016 12:32pm
nice signs for bulls in US equities today, with the FANG stocks all up especially FB & GOOGL......the tide is turning, especially if wti can keep floating up on the rumors from the east. I am bullish.....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,923
  • Jan 28, 2016 12:44pm Jan 28, 2016 12:44pm
Quoting The Fool
nice signs for bulls in US equities today, with the FANG stocks all up especially FB & GOOGL......the tide is turning, especially if wti can keep floating up on the rumors from the east. I am bullish.....
..."good news is good news" and "bad news is also good news"...

Bad numbers in Europe --> more ECB QE buy on cheap money
Good numbers in Europe --> Buy the dip
Bad numbers in the US --> Guarantee FED no more hikes buy on cheap money
Good numbers in the US --> Buy the dip
Good news in OIL --> Risk on ...finally !!! Buy everything
Bad news in OIL --> Risk off trigger global risk ECB and FED in full motion protecting the floor ... buy the dip
Bad news in China --> Risk off ... etc etc etc

...the longer the economy is dependent (by now in 2016 i would say handicap instead) of CBs and the Bastards are addicted to cheap money and 'zero risk' via CB guaranteed a floor as soon as stock markets sneeze ....the longer it will take for the real long term sustainable recovery ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,924
  • Jan 28, 2016 2:23pm Jan 28, 2016 2:23pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} ..."good news is good news" and "bad news is also good news"... Bad numbers in Europe --> more ECB QE buy on cheap money Good numbers in Europe --> Buy the dip Bad numbers in the US --> Guarantee FED no more hikes buy on cheap money Good numbers in the US --> Buy the dip Good news in OIL --> Risk on ...finally !!! Buy everything Bad news in OIL --> Risk off trigger global risk ECB and FED in full motion protecting the floor ... buy the dip Bad news in China --> Risk off ... etc etc etc ...the longer the economy is dependent (by now in 2016...

Still waiting for the faceripper a la 2016 will whe get it don't know not a investor. But hey whe like to predict shit anyway i trade the marbles inbetween But i believe whe will see a faceripper blow off top ala 2016 . Then new president and whe get or nice sellof ala 2017 and that will be no kicking the can but blood in the streets.


By the way if you believe in Soros his ''Theory of Reflexivity'' Then i can't get a better example of oil more beautifull setup isnt present at the moment according his Theory then...
  • #138,925
  • Edited 3:24pm Jan 28, 2016 2:46pm | Edited 3:24pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}...Euro completing main target 1.094x but still struggling at the highs. Hard part is done with a break 1.091x today unlocking the direct dovish play from the FED flows (and obviously triggering clearing time for shorts) ...expecting soft profit taking for the monthly close flows as we enter in major levels for trading.
...and we rolled ... No surprises for the US session . Soft profit taking as expected with Euro crashing in major levels and back to 1.094x triggering imminent short term break out alerts for the roll.

Quoting sisse
....

  1. Map is pretty much cleared since the morning. 1,088x [check] is the flip level for the play.
  2. Expecting zig zag [wrong]that extends for the M roll play. Inline / FED not very vocal 1.091x [CHECK | FAIL]-> 1.088x [check]->

...

Quote
...to the other side, with a extreme dovish FED simple flows 1.088x [check] -> 1.099x [in play] -> 1.114x, tradable directly and or with the mini break out [in play]...

Underestimated how dovish was the FED I was expecting a more choppy play... whatever the case, not point in holding shorts for much long so trailing to stop me out to 1.088x for the EZ inflation numbers. Double roll in play for tomorrow. For the 11th time in the last 12 months the never ending and key 1.097x [major shout @ IMARICH1) for the mid term swing while 1.086x for the W close will reconfirm the deal for the short term swing ...

Eyes on the BOJ later for those awake overnight. On the rest of the board same levels, same trades, same all. On the Euro clearing positions and actively looking for a late ticket for the FED and getting ready for the M flows...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,926
  • Edited 3:37pm Jan 28, 2016 3:21pm | Edited 3:37pm
Quoting ingmarforex
... . Then new president and whe get or nice sellof ala 2017 and that will be no kicking the can but blood in the streets. By the way if you believe in Soros his ''Theory of Reflexivity'' Then i can't get a better example of oil more beautifull setup isnt present at the moment according his Theory then...
Well if Americans decide to shoot themselves in the foot electing a third word country nationalism/populist BS candidate I honestly think global markets will enter in serious RISK mode at least until proven that was only political noisy BS.

Pure market and economics wise there are [as for today] only 2 issues that are out of the range and are worth to keep an eye OIL and China.

From the OIL side i think we are the end of the road FAwise (not in price). We are witnessing sharp corrections on the supply side, the hyperactive and overblown over-investment with free money and OIL at $120 has fallen and keep falling like dominos. Mid and small range producers are in full recessions/ crisis and on the brink of political chaos.

Opec big fishes got ride of most of the competitions and Russia and the other survivors are ready to play ball and work together again. It will take time, a long time to make a real recover in the sector that in my opinion will coincide with the pick up in demand via Europe turning the page and starting to pick up speed at the end of the year with China bottoming.

In all cases, the long term low is not set yet that is for sure up to today

On China, probably that is the only realistic option to have a full blown crisis as you imply. Mainly because China is a newbie in the modern world of global finance, nobody knows how they will react (neither themselves) with the hard landing. Lack of democracy and free access to markets will WEIGHT very heavy during the downturn as the lack of transparency will make everybody just even more confuse and scare.

Whatever the case, as long as US and European macro numbers hold i don't see a reason yet to enter in panic or permabear mode. Technically I still have some crumbs available at the lows for the mid and long term leg but crumbs only and look very locked for now as long as we have free money from the ECB and FED....

On Soros, well good that you mention as the Chinese are playing the full blame game on him. I read his writings a while ago especially in relation to Hayek (huge admirer here) but on the Theory of Reflexivity I only know it by common knowledge not really in detail but I can clearly understand where are you going with your comments and make perfect sense.

* For those who want to have a deep reading about it here is a good source in the FT ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,927
  • Jan 29, 2016 12:17am Jan 29, 2016 12:17am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Eyes on the BOJ later for those awake overnight. On the rest of the board same levels, same trades, same all. On the Euro clearing positions and actively looking for a late ticket for the FED and getting ready for the M flows... sisse
Very effective work from the BOJ in getting full value for their unexpected policy action and leaving QE measures open while they probably examine the the impact of the oil price.

Definitely looks like one of the strong trades starting to form now. Dollar just slightly soft on the back of a relatively dovish, cautious FED but genuine floors forming in equity markets across the world with other CB's doing the heavy lifting -but- all eyes on demand data going forward to release some pressure on the $ FED side.

Tracking 17500 on the Nikkei (talking about the JPN225 CFD just to be clear.) to carry Yen weakness and 119 on the currency pair for the indirect plays.
  • #138,928
  • Jan 29, 2016 1:59am Jan 29, 2016 1:59am
Quoting sisse
...trailing to stop me out to 1.088x [check] for the EZ inflation numbers. Double roll in play for tomorrow. For the 11th time in the last 12 months the never ...
As widely expected and right on time Euro back to square one with the test 1.088x for the news. Here clearing shorts for a lame scratch trade and ready to play the reverso. Expecting a flop but markets are already digesting that since the last ECB. So mini double leg in play for today with US GDP later to close the month.

More importantly BOJ joined the party of negative rates and we have officially US, Europe, China and Japan in full QE or loose/negative rates ... "The CBs Strikes Back" is the name of Game for Q1 2016.

For those on the NJ trade we obviously lost 76.4x for the RBNZ/BOOJ play and the widely expected 77.4x triggering the reverso for those overnight trading .... here just tracking a pop later next week....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,929
  • Jan 29, 2016 4:36am Jan 29, 2016 4:36am
...and that was it for the European session.

All eyes on US equities for the monthly close. Important GDP reports coming to confirm the slowdown in Q4. Any reading above 1% or better than expected (not expected at all) will trigger a fast track to complete the leg up (S&P 1940.xx REF) failure or worst than expected will trigger a quick sell-off (very tradable) to retest 1869.xx and settle the key M close.

--> Very important session in Equities as setting the current Quarterly LOW is in play....

--> On the rest of the board plenty of tradable options across the board especially with better/inline news. On the Euro, back to the backseat for the next leg. 1.086x/8x is the level in play for the news play to 1.099x and beyond but more importantly all eyes 1.097x for the M roll for the mid term swing.

--> On OIL, direct play to 35.7x with positive news. Failure will leave the lows wide open to complete the leg 25.9x later in the Q.

--> Also GOLD in a short term play after a while out of my trading workspace for a quick test 1138.xx while 1060.xx holding the M close unlock 118x.x for this Quarter before ECB QE.

Outlook updates coming for later in the close for now all cards on the table. We are ready for the final sessions of the month.

GL all trading, planning to trade or just tracking the end of the month ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,930
  • Jan 29, 2016 5:29am Jan 29, 2016 5:29am
Been watching and waiting.....taken a few shorts at the .096X level a few times and played to .0900 and .088x as well....waiting to see if .097X holds again or .086X for the cheaper seats with better view at .112X

Double roll in play for tomorrow. For the 11th time in the last 12 months the never ending and key 1.097x [major shout @ IMARICH1) for the mid term swing while 1.086x for the W close will reconfirm the deal for the short term swing ...

I am here sisse and absorbing all I can in your posts.......thanks for guiding the way and allowing us to look off your homework to compare with ours!

Goodluck!
  • #138,931
  • Edited 10:23am Jan 29, 2016 5:32am | Edited 10:23am
...miss on advanced Q4 {EDIT} big revision on the final Q3.[released already before thanks to ClinicalEx !!!] ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,932
  • Jan 29, 2016 5:42am Jan 29, 2016 5:42am
All eyes on 1904.xx in the S&P for the opening range. Last chance to crack it this month otherwise we are set for an uneventful US session across the board...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,933
  • Jan 29, 2016 5:51am Jan 29, 2016 5:51am
Quoting sisse
...--> ...On the Euro, back to the backseat for the next leg. 1.086x/8x [check] is the level in play for the news play to 1.099x and beyond but more importantly all eyes 1.097x for the M roll for the mid term swing.
....and that was quick an easy back to square one where we have been ALL month long. Right on time 1.086x tested as widely expected and we are ready for the open. For the 4th time this month ... choose your poison time in the EURO for the short term leg ....

GL all

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,934
  • Jan 29, 2016 6:14am Jan 29, 2016 6:14am
"in the EURO for the short term leg ...."


Thanks so much sisse for helping me see these legs.....makes a difference in trading....my trading was a mess as I mixed my news flows, actual flows, time frames, Short, Mid Term Legs together. You helped me separate my fruits and vegetables so to speak....

I will be surprised if .097X holds again due to Dovish FED, ECB easy money and BOJ unraveling. However, my view is still stronger DOLLAR and WEAKER EU by MARCH thru JUNE/JULY for MID TERM LEG.

Still some concern for Global Markets and Manufacturing #'s in US as well if OIL takes another visit to the LOWS to push Fed to hold on rate increase in March due to their language in Minutes that this will be an area to revisit their thinking on rates if these issues become a concern.

ShrtTL=BULL .112X to .12XX
MidTL=BEAR .045X to .02XX

Thanks!
  • #138,935
  • Jan 29, 2016 6:47am Jan 29, 2016 6:47am
now this was not nice i thought the 970 is going to be attacked and then a sell wave... well anywhay done for today...

wonder why this selloff happened...
  • #138,936
  • Jan 29, 2016 6:51am Jan 29, 2016 6:51am
Quoting Vladimir1987
now this was not nice i thought the 970 is going to be attacked and then a sell wave... well anywhay done for today... wonder why this selloff happened...

Its news flow....watch and wait.....NY is alive now...see if .097X gets attacked today.....what has changed this week? Nothing but this news. The other issues are still in play. .086X and .097x are impt levels. This .097X is going to be challenged in my opinion.
  • #138,937
  • Jan 29, 2016 6:58am Jan 29, 2016 6:58am
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} Its news flow....watch and wait.....NY is alive now...see if .097X gets attacked today.....what has changed this week? Nothing but this news. The other issues are still in play. .086X and .097x are impt levels. This .097X is going to be challenged in my opinion.
i was betting that 883 would hold, but stopped out for couple not so bad.
later the 860 longed and went from the pc but didnt hold now its a buzz, here also a good support but that means i would have to carry the trade thrue weekend and probably for couple of days to get the 970...

ill probably do that because i think this should go till fed up and if they dont hike continue further. then later down because of the rate difference


dont know if i am complicating stuff now
  • #138,938
  • Jan 29, 2016 7:43am Jan 29, 2016 7:43am
Quoting sisse
All eyes on 1904.xx in the S&P for the opening range. Last chance to crack it this month otherwise we are set for an uneventful [in play] US session across the board..
...and that was pretty much it for the opening range. Bulls starting to cough in the opening range and we are going to fail to break 1904.xx today leaving the board on sleep mode until the close so no break no shake no nothing across the board ....

Europe going home will reconfirm the deal but we are set for an uneventful closing range. Tracking 1895.xx for the Equities close in the S&P and 1.084x in the Euro.

Last fumes of the month until the top of the hour...until then not much to do here with same levels, same plays, same all across the board....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,939
  • Jan 29, 2016 7:44am Jan 29, 2016 7:44am
Quoting Vladimir1987
now this was not nice i thought the 970 is going to be attacked and then a sell wave... well anywhay done for today... wonder why this selloff happened...
this is one of the many days I really dont get WHY... lol
  • #138,940
  • Edited 10:19am Jan 29, 2016 8:01am | Edited 10:19am
Quoting Vladimir1987
now this was not nice i thought the 970 is going to be attacked and then a sell wave... well anywhay done for today... wonder why this selloff happened...
Well 1.097x holding the Monthly close was expected thats exactly in alignment with the mid term fundamentals.

From the technical side, it just need to hold today that's more than enough to keep the maps intact. On the short term, yesterday we unlocked the highs via the FED dovish play (the hard part was done yesterday and it wont hold a new test in the upcoming weeks as macro stops will be raised on the close today.

Quoting chester123
{quote} this is one of the many days I really don't get WHY... lol
Why because of this:

Quoting sisse
... On the Euro, back to the backseat for the next leg....
Meaning weekly profit taking was underway yesterday from the ride 1.08xx. EURO (DOLLAR) are just moving as collateral of Equities that are fighting for a key close (to set a solid floor) after the 3er largest monthly range selloff in the history !!!... point is mini break up (via dovish FED) [lot better GDP revision)] in Equities will carry the board...failure is back to a rather BEARISH monthly close leaving RISK intact for February...

I hope it helps ..

sisee
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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