AceTraderFx : Daily Recommendations on Majors

AceTraderFx Jan 21: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 21 Jan 2016 08:44 GMT

USD/JPY - 116.93
Despite yesterday's resumption of recent downtrend to a 1-year bottom of 115.97 in Europe, subsequent erratic rise to 117.05 in New York due to recovery in the Dow, then intra-day cross-inspired rally to 117.48 in Asia confirms temporary low has been made and 2-3 days of choppy consolidation is in store.

As dollar has rebounded after a strong retreat to 116.47 in early European morning due to renewed weakness in Asian equities after initial recovery, near term upside bias is retained for a long-awaited minor correction to 117.69/71 but reckon res at 118.18 should cap upside and yield another fall later today or tomorrow.

AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 22 Jan 2016 05:57 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0852
Despite euro's brief but sharp selloff from 1.0921 to as low as 1.0776 following ECB President Draghi's dovish comments on Thursday, subsequent strong rebound back up to 1.0901 in New York afternoon suggests early decline from last Friday's 2-week peak at 1.0985 has ended and 'choppy' consolidation with upside bias is envisaged, above 1.0936/39 res is needed to retain bullishness for further headway towards 1.0960/70.

On the downside, only below 1.0805 would dampen above bullish scenario on euro and may risk weakness towards 1.0778 but Jan's bottom at 1.0711 should remain intact.

AceTraderFx Jan 22: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 22 Jan 2016 08:48 GMT

USD/JPY - 118.15
Although price has risen again in Asia on the back of strong gains in crude oil price as well as broad-based relief rally in Asian stocks, suggesting near term erratic upmove from Wed's 1-year bottom at 115.97 would head to 118.28/38 after consolidation, only a daily close above this previous res area would retain bullish prospect of stronger correction twd 118.85.

On the downside, below 117.54 (Asian low) would be the 1st signal top is in place and yield stronger retracement of aforesaid rise to 117.00/10 later.

AceTraderFx Jan 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views USD/JPY

Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views
25 Jan 2016 00:10GMT

USD/JPY - ..... Dlr rallied in the 2nd part of last week on active short-covering. Reuters reported earlier speculators reduced bullish bets on the U.S. dollar for a fourth straight week, as net longs fell to their lowest level since late October, according to Reuters calculations and data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

The value of the dollar's net long position slid to $25.03 billion in the week ended Jan. 19, from $25.29 billion in the previous week. This was the third straight week that net dollar longs came in below $30 billion.
The volatility in financial markets driven by the downtrend in oil has diminished the allure of the dollar against both the euro and yen, which have lower interest rates than the U.S. currency.
This week, Japanese yen net longs totaled 37,653 contracts, from 25,266 previously. This week's yen net longs were the largest since mid-February 2012.

These days, the safe haven yen and low-yielding euro tend to struggle in times of increased risk appetite because these currencies are often used to fund investment in risky assets. They consequently rise back up when there is a retreat from those assets in periods of market stress.
Japan's exports fell 8.0 percent in December from a year earlier, down for the third straight month, Ministry of Finance data showed on Monday, in a sign the slowdown in China's economy and emerging markets is taking a toll on external demand.

The decline compares with economists' median estimate for a 6.8 percent drop in a Reuters poll. It followed a 3.3 percent decrease in November.
Imports fell 18.0 percent in December, versus the median forecast for a 16.4 percent decline, bringing the trade balance to a surplus of 140.2 billion yen ($1.18 billion). Economists expected a surplus of 100.0 billion yen.

AceTraderFx Jan 25: Intra-Day News and Views (USD/JPY) & data to be released today

Intra-day Market Moving News and Views
25 Jan 2016 02:25GMT

USD/JPY - ...... Dlr pares Fri's rally to a 2-week high of 118.88 n retreated to 118.43 shortly after Tokyo open on selling by Japanese exporters despite intra-day gain in the Nikkie.

Looks like a temporary top has been made and range trading is in store in Asia. Having said that, as market has moved back to so-called risk-on mode as Friday's 10% plus rally in crude oil price (benchmark Brent crude has clocked up marginal gain in Mon's trading and is currently at $32.47, well above the $ 30/barrel mark) should boost risk sentiment.
Therefore, expect renewed yen-selling to emerge, so buying dlr on dips is still favoured.
Bids are noted at 118.45-35 and more below with stops below 118.00.
Offers are tipped at 118.75/85 and more above with stops touted above 119.20.

Data to be released :

Japan exports, imports, trade balance, Germany IFO expectations, business climate, current assessment, Italy industrial sales, industrial orders, retail sales, trade balance, U.K. CBI trends survey and U.S. Dallas Fed manufacturing business index on Monday.

Swiss exports, imports, trade balance, U.S. Redbook, caseshiller 20, housing price index, Markit service PMI and consumer confidence on Tuesday.

Australia Westpac leading index, CPI, business condition, business confidence, Germany consumer confidence, import prices, U.K. nationwide house prices, Swiss consumption indicator, France consumer confidence, Italy consumer confidence, business confidence, U.S. mortgage applications, new home sales, Fed Pace of MBS Purchase Program, Fed Pace of Treasury Purchase Program, Fed Interest Rate Decision and New Zealand RBNZ interest rate decision on Wednesday.

New Zealand exports, imports, trade balance, Japan retail trade, Australia import price index, export price index, Italy wage inflation, U.K. GDP, CBI distributive trade, Euro zone services sentiment, consumer confidence, industrial confidence, economic sentiment indicator, business climate, Germany CPI, Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices, U.S. initial jobless claims, durable goods and pending home sales on Thursday.

New Zealand building permits, Japan unemployment rate, jobs/applicants ratio, all household spending, CPI, industrial production, interest rate decision, housing start, construction order, Australia producer price index, U.K. consumer confidence, France GDP, producer prices, consumer spending, Swiss KOF leading indicator, Italy producer price index, Euro zone CPI, U.S. GDP, employment cost index, good trade balance, personal consumption expenditures prices, Chicago PMI, The Reuters/Michigan consumer sentiment index, Canada producer prices and GDP on Friday.

AceTraderFx Jan 25: Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views EUR/USD
Intra-Day Market Moving News and Views

25 Jan 2016 03:30GMT

EUR/USD - ..... Euro is nursing loss in subdued Asian trading on Mon after Friday's weakness to 1.0789 as rally in global stocks sent the Dow higher by 1.3%.
As mentioned in previous update, euro has traded inversely to intra-day move in Asian and global stocks, present broad-based gain in Asian equities should weigh on the single currency. Therefore, despite present recovery, selling on further rise is recommended.

Offers are reported at 1.0830/40 and more above with stop above 1.0865/70.
Initial bids are noted at 1.0790-70 are with fairly large stops touted below there.

Pay attention to release of key German IFO business confidence index at 09:00GMT, street forecast for January reading to be 108.4 vs previous figure of 108.7.
If actual reading comes in below expectation, then euro would come under renewed broad-based bashing vs usd and the sterling.

AceTraderFx Jan 25: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 25 Jan 2016 02:21 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0802
As euro has remained under pressure on Friday after meeting renewed selling at 1.0863 in Europe and later weakness to 1.0789 in New York due to rebound in global stocks caused by a 10%-plus rally in crude oil price, suggesting re-test of last week's low at 1.0776 (Thursday) would be seen, break would extend early erratic decline from 1.0985 to 1.0730/40, however, reckon Jan's bottom at 1.0711 would remain intact.

On the upside, above 1.0863 would 'prolong' recent choppy sideways swings and may risk another bounce towards 1.0901.

AceTraderFx Jan 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 26 Jan 2016 05:32 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0852
As euro has rebounded on Monday on safe-haven buying in tandem with yen due to renewed weakness in the Dow and crude oil price, suggesting 'gyrations' inside near term established range of 1.0921-1.0776 would continue. Intra-day broad-based decline in Asian stocks suggests upside bias remains for further gain.
However, break of res area at 1.0901-21 is needed to retain bullish prospect of subsequent headway towards 1.0960/70.

On the downside, below 1.0806/09 would shift risk to the downside for weakness towards 1.0799 but only break of last Thursday's post-ECB meeting low at 1.0776 would pressure price to 1.0730/40.

AceTraderFx Jan 26: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 26 Jan 2016 09:42 GMT

USD/JPY - 117.88
Despite the greenback rally from last Wednesday's fresh 1-year trough at 115.97 to 118.88 on Friday, subseqeunt retreat suggests the first leg of correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 117.54, below would add credence to this view and extend towards 117.08.
However, support at 116.47 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 118.17 (previous support, now resistance) would indicate pullback has ended and turn outlook bullish for gain to 118.34/40.

AceTraderFx Jan 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 27 Jan 2016 03:40 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0858
Another day of choppy trading is in store following yesterday's roller-coaster move from 1.0874 to 1.0819 and then subsequent climb back to 1.0871 near New York close.
Euro's recent inverse price reaction to daily swings in global equities' movement suggests further 'gyrations' inside early established range of 1.0921-1.0776 would continue and as long as 1.0806/09 holds, consolidation with mild upside bias remains but only above 1.0901/21 res area would signal correction from 1.0985 (January high) over and yield subsequent headway to 1.0960/70.

A daily close below 1.0806 would bring weakness towards 1.0776 and possibly towards 1.0730/35.

AceTraderFx Jan 27: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 27 Jan 2016 09:36 GMT

USD/JPY - 118.22
Despite the greenback rally from last Wednesday's fresh 1-year trough at 115.97 to 118.88 on Friday, subsequent retreat suggests the first leg of correction has ended and consolidation with downside bias would be seen for weakness towards 117.54, below would add credence to this view and extend towards 117.08.
However, support at 116.47 should remain intact and yield rebound.

On the upside, only above 118.17 (previous support, now resistance) would indicate pullback has ended and turn outlook bullish for gain to 118.34/40.

AceTraderFx Jan 28: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 28 Jan 2016 08:31 GMT

USD/JPY - 118.89
The greenback's rally yesterday and subsequent breach of last Friday's high at 118.88 signals the corrective upmove from last Wednesday's fresh 1-year trough at 115.97 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 119.08/10, then 119.17/20, however, loss of momentum would keep price below 119.46/50 today and bring retreat later.

On the downside, only below 117.66 would indicate a temporary top has been made and turn outlook bearish for a stronger retracement towards 117.30/40.

AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 29 Jan 2016 05:31 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0936
Yesterday's anticipated erratic rise to a 2-week high of 1.0968 suggests re-test of January's 1.0985 high would be seen after initial consolidation and reckon 1.0900/10 would hold for this move, above said res level would encourage for further headway to 1.1013 and then gain towards December's top at 1.1060 next week.

On the downside, only below 1.0870 prolongs recent volatile trading inside 1.0985-1.0776 broad range and risk further subsequent weakness towards 1.0919/24.

AceTraderFx Jan 29: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 29 Jan 2016 08:25 GMT

USD/JPY - 120.72
The greenback's over 2% jump to a fresh 1-month peak at 121.42 after Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates suggests recent erratic upmove remains in progress and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 121.70/80.
However, over bought condition would prevent steep gain above there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below support at 119.60 would confirm a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 119.10/20.
On the downside, only below 117.66 would indicate a temporary top has been made and turn outlook bearish for a stronger retracement towards 117.30/40.

AceTraderFx Feb 1: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 01 Feb 2016 05:33 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0845
The single currency's selloff from last Thursday's high at 1.0968 to 1.0810 on Friday suggests further choppy trading inside recently established range of 1.0985-1.0776 would continue with downside bias and marginal weakness from here is likely.
However, indicated lower level should remain intact and bring another rebound later today.

On the upside, only above 1.0926 would revive bullishness for gain towards 1.0968, then 1.0985, break would extend recent upmove towards 1.1010/20.

AceTraderFx Feb 1: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 01 Feb 2016 08:15 GMT

USD/JPY - 121.11
The greenback's over 2% jump to a fresh 1-month peak at 121.42 after Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates on Friday suggests recent erratic upmove remains in progress and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 121.70/80, however, over bought condition would prevent steep gain above there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below support at 119.60 would confirm a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 119.10/20.

AceTraderFx Feb 2: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 02 Feb 2016 04:11 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0900
Despite the single currency's selloff from last Thursday's high at 1.0968 to 1.0810 on Friday, subsequent rebound suggests further choppy trading inside recently established range of 1.0985-1.0776 would continue with mild upside bias and marginal gain from here is likely, however, indicated upper level should remain intact and bring another retreat later today.

On the downside, only below 1.0810 would revive bearishness for weakness towards aforesaid lowel level, break would retain bearishness for weakness to 1.0740/50.

AceTraderFx Feb 2: Daily Recommendations on Major -USD/JPY

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 02 Feb 2016 08:14 GMT

USD/JPY - 120.73
The greenback's over 2% jump to a fresh 1-month peak at 121.42, then gain to 121.70 after Bank of Japan announced negative interest rates on Friday suggests recent erratic upmove remains in progress and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for gain towards 122.10/20.
However, over bought condition would prevent steep gain above there and risk would increase for a much-needed correction early next week.

On the downside, only below support at 119.60 would confirm a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 119.10/20.

AceTraderFx Feb 3: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 03 Feb 2016 04:13 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.0925
Despite the single currency's selloff from last Thursday's high at 1.0968 to 1.0810 on Friday, subsequent rebound suggests further choppy trading inside recently established range of 1.0985-1.0776 would continue with mild upside bias and marginal gain from here is likely.
However, indicated upper level should remain intact and bring another retreat later today.

On the downside, only below 1.0810 would revive bearishness for weakness towards aforesaid lower level, break would retain bearishness for weakness to 1.0740/50.

AceTraderFx Feb 4: Daily Recommendations on Major -EUR/USD

DAILY MARKET OUTLOOK
Update Time: 04 Feb 2016 05:01 GMT

EUR/USD - 1.1085
The single currency's rally above December's peak at 1.1060 to as high as 1.1145 yesterday on dollar's broad-based selloff signals the erratic upmove from December's low at 1.0523 has once again resumed and consolidation with upside bias would be seen for further gain towards 1.1170/80.
However, near term loss of momentum would keep price well below 1.1224 and yield a much-needed correction later.

On the downside, only below 1.0985 (previous resistance) would confirm a temporary top has been made and risk stronger retracement towards 1.0940.