wedge
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- #59,042
- Jan 25, 2016 8:04am Jan 25, 2016 8:04am
Support level at around 116 will be defended by the BOJ with every bullet left, look how these levels behaved from 2000 until 2003 in the second chart.
Shorters beware
Shorters beware
In a world where robots fucks everybody else over...
- #59,043
- Jan 25, 2016 10:10am Jan 25, 2016 10:10am
- | Joined Aug 2015 | Status: Playing. | 1,018 Posts
Focus.
- #59,047
- Jan 25, 2016 12:01pm Jan 25, 2016 12:01pm
- Joined Oct 2011 | Status: quo | 4,193 Posts
As Above, So Below
- #59,050
- Jan 26, 2016 3:37am Jan 26, 2016 3:37am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: CoC'd again ! | 8,578 Posts
Missing from this list is the total collapse of the Japanese stock market caused by over-leveraging and corruption. Thus began the lost decade, which has but a few years before it grows into the lost generation. In 1999 the Nikkei hit 40,000 and then began its decay as tumbling asset prices and frantic deleveraging destroyed many things. The Nikkei has never regained its all time high, not even come close.
You might think that mankind would learn from this, and yet within ten years a similar set of mismanagements culminated in the collapse of a financial institution leaving debts of around $1trillion. The knock-on effects and discoveries that they were not the only over-stretched money-house has taken us to where we are today.
Made my first big kill in the stock market from this. Other coincident events dragged down banking stocks all around the world. After a number of months the majority of problems were fixed and the bank stocks recovered. 
The other events: Argentinian currency crisis. Russian economic crisis including a default on an IMF loan. Ecuador banking crisis.
The price of oil dropped massively.....
You might think that mankind would learn from this, and yet within ten years a similar set of mismanagements culminated in the collapse of a financial institution leaving debts of around $1trillion. The knock-on effects and discoveries that they were not the only over-stretched money-house has taken us to where we are today.
Some history of the pair: 1998 - Asian financial crisis sees yen weaken to nearly JPY148 in August, even after US authorities join the Bank of Japan to buy JPY, spending $833m, in June. In October, USD tumbles from near JPY136 to 111.50, as carry trades unwind following the near-collapse of hedge fund major Long-Term Capital Management. ...
The other events: Argentinian currency crisis. Russian economic crisis including a default on an IMF loan. Ecuador banking crisis.
The price of oil dropped massively.....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
- #59,052
- Jan 26, 2016 4:38am Jan 26, 2016 4:38am
Missing from this list is the total collapse of the Japanese stock market caused by over-leveraging and corruption. Thus began the lost decade, which has but a few years before it grows into the lost generation. In 1999 the Nikkei hit 40,000 and then began its decay as tumbling asset prices and frantic deleveraging destroyed many things. The Nikkei has never regained its all time high, not even come close. You might think that mankind would learn from this, and yet within ten years a similar set of mismanagements culminated in the collapse of a...
For those who want to improve their knowledge about central banks intervention in FX markets, check this material from the FED:
"An Assessment of the Impact of Japanese Foreign ExchangeIntervention: 1991-2004"
http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/i...24/ifdp824.pdf
"Another potential channel of intervention effectiveness at very short horizons is simply through the immediate impact of the order flow on price. Lyons (2001) discusses this channel in the context of secret intervention operations. In this context, market makers treat the appearance of such order flow from a central bank as they would any other sizable order, with the order flow potentially revealing private information held by their counterparties or changes in parameters dispersed among market participants, such as the markets attitude toward risk. Observing the order flow induces the market makers to adjust their prices, leading to short term intervention effectiveness. Dominguez (2005) discusses how, in this order flow framework, trader heterogeneity and the lack of common knowledge may magnify the impact of foreign exchange interventions."
In a world where robots fucks everybody else over...
- #59,053
- Jan 26, 2016 5:10am Jan 26, 2016 5:10am
- Joined May 2012 | Status: CoC'd again ! | 8,578 Posts
... And yet, today we are leaving in a world of QE programs implemented by the central bankers hoping to stimulate inflation and growth of an economy depleted of its capacity of self-adjusting to market conditions. ...
After the '29 crash and subsequent Great Depression the various stimulation techniques have been redeployed. Not much in the infrastructure development theme, but definitely loads of QE. At the turn of the Century Japan experienced a similar depressive force and GoJ/BoJ has been battling ever since.
Learning from the mistakes of the past, yes really, it seems this time that Yellen et el are intent on reducing the free-money supply before too many problems arise, and the rate of increase in rates is allegedly 'limited and gradual'. This has yet to be seen, so let us watch....
Carbon-Dioxide: the gas of life! https://youtu.be/ttJBdr6eBuo
- #59,055
- Jan 26, 2016 7:45am Jan 26, 2016 7:45am
Coming back to the present, don't see how the Yen will strengthen to below 116 unless the oil continue dip despite OPEC intervention.
In early October 2010, the Bank of Japan announced that it would examine the purchase of ¥5 trillion (US$60 billion) in assets. This was an attempt to push down the value of the yen against the US dollar to stimulate the domestic economy by making Japanese exports cheaper; it did not work.
On 4 August 2011 the BOJ announced a unilateral move to increase the commercial bank current account balance from ¥40 trillion (US$504 billion) to a total of ¥50 trillion (US$630 billion). In October 2011, the Bank expanded its asset purchase program by ¥5 trillion ($66bn) to a total of ¥55 trillion.
On 4 April 2013, the Bank of Japan announced that it would expand its asset purchase program by 60 to 70 trillion Yen a year. https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/outline/qqe.htm/
The Bank hoped to bring Japan from deflation to inflation, aiming for 2% inflation. The amount of purchases was so large that it was expected to double the money supply. This policy has been named Abenomics, as a portmanteau of economic policies and Shinzō Abe, the current Prime Minister of Japan.
On 31 October 2014, the BOJ announced the expansion of its bond buying program, to now buy 80 trillion Yen of bonds a year.
(from wikipedia)
But the effects of "more" are fading, the first two waves were driven almost entirely by carry-traders in search of cheap funding their investmens.
In a world where robots fucks everybody else over...
- #59,056
- Jan 26, 2016 10:37am Jan 26, 2016 10:37am
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
- #59,060
- Edited 12:41pm Jan 27, 2016 12:30pm | Edited 12:41pm
- Joined Oct 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,929 Posts
USDJPY stay beyond the key level 118.50 w/ oil at 32+ while we are heading into Jan. FOMC in 30 minutes.
Original trade idea on USDJPY on 1/19
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US...5-Oil-Oil-Oil/
Let's see if UJ be able to land above the 118.50 after the FOMC today.
Original trade idea on USDJPY on 1/19
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/US...5-Oil-Oil-Oil/
Let's see if UJ be able to land above the 118.50 after the FOMC today.
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