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  • #1,052,301
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:18am Jan 25, 2016 8:18am
Quoting openyoureyes
{quote} on daily -short TF- PA, 1.084-1.085 seems strong resistance area. (but I think we will see higher before draghi) edit: breakout top
No offense, but from now till 1.40 all it can do is break out. :'D
Technically previous tops everywhere..
f(z)=z2+c
  • #1,052,302
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:20am Jan 25, 2016 8:20am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} We'll see, but you do have a point.
that parity cruise may have been postponed. tech wise, i will still wait for 1086 minimal. we may be here a while. even 1.2470 has a opening, valid tech wise. i dont think it can drop w/o 1086 or even 1115.. and while there.. why not hit 114x the ypp..
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,052,303
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:22am Jan 25, 2016 8:22am
the blue boxes are the buy areas , the yellow arrow shows why i am reluctant to pull the trigger. i did pull the trigger at a much better level but got stopped out 3 times in 3 entries and at the RIGHT direction , the last one missed by 9 pips. as i can see some pull back at the daily chart. alot of possibilities at the moment , just as i think my very tight SL 10 pips only , and scalping entries will not be good atm....

first arrow , trendline broken ....2nd was price rejected
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd-m15-ig.png Size: 83 KB
  • #1,052,304
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:23am Jan 25, 2016 8:23am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} All those nice charts and you decide to do nothing?

LOL... I know right! I am for the most part a very conservative trader. This is the timing component into a larger framework that also includes a fairly complex forecasting model and machine learning components . I spend most of my time on my ass waiting for things like the USD/CAD to occur. My primary interest is asymmetrical trading, trying to identify where flows have started to ignore fundamentals and then building positions counter to the trend. For me it's a lot about capital preservation and home run trades. I don't do the small grind quite as much as I use too.
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #1,052,305
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:27am Jan 25, 2016 8:27am
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
{quote} LOL... I know right! I am for the most part a very conservative trader. This is the timing component into a larger framework that also includes a fairly complex forecasting model and machine learning components . I spend most of my time on my ass waiting for things like the USD/CAD to occur. My primary interest is asymmetrical trading, trying to identify where flows have started to ignore fundamentals and then building positions counter to the trend. For me it's a lot about capital preservation and home run trades. I don't do the small grind...
sry , my english isnt that good.. you mean you dont intraday scalp , a spectator mostly i suppose. you mention complex , the market is made up of human emotions and it doesnt seems to be sober mostly besides the price , exchange rates are determined by people , it is not the true value. interesting concept you have there.
  • #1,052,306
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:28am Jan 25, 2016 8:28am
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
{quote} LOL... I know right! I am for the most part a very conservative trader. This is the timing component into a larger framework that also includes a fairly complex forecasting model and machine learning components . I spend most of my time on my ass waiting for things like the USD/CAD to occur. My primary interest is asymmetrical trading, trying to identify where flows have started to ignore fundamentals and then building positions counter to the trend. For me it's a lot about capital preservation and home run trades. I don't do the small grind...
Tell me more about your expectations in USD/CAD please?
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #1,052,307
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:28am Jan 25, 2016 8:28am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Hehehe, good analogy.
anal logic is the key to understand bs.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,052,308
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:29am Jan 25, 2016 8:29am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} that parity cruise may have been postponed. tech wise, i will still wait for 1086 minimal. we may be here a while. even 1.2470 has a opening, valid tech wise. i dont think it can drop w/o 1086 or even 1115.. and while there.. why not hit 114x the ypp..
Hi gator , I just noticed something (couple of days ago) there is a missed norm @1.1920(um) the setup is kind of similar to gold missed norm at 122x , the swing is the first weekly swing of 2015 .
if got time could you please check it .
  • #1,052,309
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:32am Jan 25, 2016 8:32am
Quoting tankokjian
{quote} sry , my english isnt that good.. you mean you dont intraday scalp , a spectator mostly i suppose.
You are exactly right. I don't scalp at all really. There may be a time or two where I take trades and I'm only targeting 20-30 pips (way out of the scalping range) but that's rare. I'm usually looking to sit on the sidelines and then will slowly build positions over weeks when I think fundamentals are about to catch up with an overshot trend. I'm usually targeting 300+ pips on a trade which means I will often have to eat a downside risk of 150.
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #1,052,310
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:33am Jan 25, 2016 8:33am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} my understanding is it works on all timeframes. but one had less chance of getting 100 pips on a 1 minute alone. db on a 1 h, so i could not even try here below 0842. looking for 0920 personally st. with others still higher on larger tf. 0920 is one bears want also st in my view
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,052,311
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:40am Jan 25, 2016 8:40am
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
{quote} You are exactly right. I don't scalp at all really. There may be a time or two where I take trades and I'm only targeting 20-30 pips (way out of the scalping range) but that's rare. I'm usually looking to sit on the sidelines and then will slowly build positions over weeks when I think fundamentals are about to catch up with an overshot trend. I'm usually targeting 300+ pips on a trade which means I will often have to eat a downside risk of 150.
oh, teacher . my SL for indices at most 20-30 pips my target is abt 300-500 pips, am i putting too tight SL , as i can see the 4HR candle movement is already ticking 100 pips , very normal. which means my trades cannot hold any kiss or spikes. Can this be mastered to perfection ?

indices are new to me actually / previously forex mostly for a few years. i fair badly if PA moves sideways , my RR for trending is great.
  • #1,052,312
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:42am Jan 25, 2016 8:42am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} anal logic is the key to understand bs.
Thought its the key to understand double bottoms.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #1,052,313
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:44am Jan 25, 2016 8:44am
Quoting hathor
{quote} No offense, but from now till 1.40 all it can do is break out. :'D Technically previous tops everywhere..
1.084 will stay there for some time, at least couple more minutes

EU rangebound
Attached Image
  • #1,052,314
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:45am Jan 25, 2016 8:45am
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Tell me more about your expectations in USD/CAD please?
Killer I'm looking at this from a monthly trigger for perspective. I think the run up in the pair had a lot to do with IRD expectations. BoC would cut and the Fed will raise rates. That is a potential break from fundamentals if it doesn't occur, and would have had the pair overshot by a good margin if it didn't play out. The lack of a cut at the BoC probably jarred portfolio flows a bit and sent them back to reassess targets. That was the first sell-off. I'd expect the pair to muddle around here for a few month while the balance of that picture (US Interest rates and to a lesser extent Oil) show themselves. If the US signals it may not raise rates four times it could send force another re-balance. That will also have modeling implications going forward. If they don't raise rates four times they could be admitting the economy isn't as strong as the thought, you'll have analysts begging to put more weight into negative numbers and potentially driving the pair even deeper.

For me I'm looking to take positions again if we see monthly levels jump back up into the previous zone. Something that's not unusual as consolidation and range occur on all time frames. If it rolls back up I'm likely to get short again. The risk is of course that the US follows through with their measured increases. Going forward I've to be really conservative. I made a pile on that trade and I'm not interested in pissing it away. I typically only grind 10% or so in a year and the trade netted me 9.7%. I'll probably be really conservative going forward - which means all of you are going to have to suffer through a lot of rambling and charts and updates to my spreadsheet / fundamental model / machine learning models / crying over servers and workstations etc. Brace yourself. It could be a long year.
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #1,052,315
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:50am Jan 25, 2016 8:50am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Hi gator , I just noticed something (couple of days ago) there is a missed norm @1.1920(um) the setup is kind of similar to gold missed norm at 122x , the swing is the first weekly swing of 2015 . if got time could you please check it .
1.300/94 could be considered missed also.

pre conception target at 1.9111.. the norm for it is/was 1.0625. ignoring it mostly personally. it dont fit in my pre 1973 levels (world reset), off gold standard plan for usd... take out inflation and oil is well below 1950 oil prices..
Attached Image
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,052,316
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:50am Jan 25, 2016 8:50am
Quoting tankokjian
{quote} oh, teacher . my SL for indices at most 20-30 pips my target is abt 300-500 pips, am i putting too tight SL , as i can see the 4HR candle movement is already ticking 100 pips , very normal. which means my trades cannot hold any kiss or spikes. Can this be mastered to perfection ? indices are new to me actually / previously forex mostly for a few years. i fair badly if PA moves sideways , my RR for trending is great.
Tank I don't use stops so I'm the wrong guy to ask. I don't have a feel for it at all. When I did use them (when I was managing money) I always kept them outside the daily ATR and made sure my leverage was in check. My model is a lot different now, I don't have to worry about monthly returns (or annual for that matter), I don't have to try and force anything to happen. I just sit around and wait for the market to do what I hope then I sneak in and build positions and keep hoping that it goes my way.
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #1,052,317
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:50am Jan 25, 2016 8:50am
it looks like crude is pushing the PA ard atm... most OPEC cannot survive at below 30$ a barrel. but Saudi's keep wanting to over supply again and again. what good does it do for them ?? Saudi's wanting to gain market share but CAN THEY PROVIDE ENOUGH FOR THE WORLD CONSUMPTION . answer is obvious , there seems to be some conspiracy going on , its dumb on their part though.
  • #1,052,318
  • Jan 25, 2016 8:59am Jan 25, 2016 8:59am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Thought its the key to understand double bottoms.
1/2 ass theory at its finest
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,052,319
  • Jan 25, 2016 9:00am Jan 25, 2016 9:00am
Quoting MarkoTrd
It's my turn, long eurusd, sl: 1.07637
close my long, little profit.
  • #1,052,320
  • Jan 25, 2016 9:02am Jan 25, 2016 9:02am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 1.300/94 could be considered missed also. pre conception target at 1.9111.. the norm for it is/was 1.0625. ignoring it mostly personally. it dont fit in my pre 1973 levels (world reset), off gold standard plan for usd... take out inflation and oil is well below 1950 oil prices.. {image}
Thanks for the setup and for the FA view
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