I havn't studies Murrey Math yet. My chart looks like this (not traded due to time difference).
Price hodling at 50% level now...
![Click to Enlarge
Name: 2016-01-22 07 [NZDUSD,M1].png
Size: 44 KB](/attachment/image/1836373/thumbnail?d=1453417085)
Price hodling at 50% level now...
News trading discussion - continuation
- #2,043
- Jan 21, 2016 8:57pm Jan 21, 2016 8:57pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,044
- Jan 21, 2016 9:20pm Jan 21, 2016 9:20pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
I havn't studies Murrey Math yet. My chart looks like this (not traded due to time difference). Price hodling at 50% level now...
Thoughts on "smart traders"
Many people know only a few understand (s) by void
1. The market is always right.
2. If the market is not right, see item 1.
But seriously, the philosophy in trading no more than cooking eggs.
Trader follows the rules of the trading system and receives a profit - fine, you can still work on improving vehicle.
Trader follows the rules of his TC and receives no profit - something is wrong with the vehicle, there is a lot of work.
The trader does not follow the rules of their TC and does not receive a profit (and even if it gets) - something is wrong with the trader, there is a lot of work.
That's the whole philosophy.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,045
- Jan 22, 2016 3:35am Jan 22, 2016 3:35am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,046
- Jan 22, 2016 7:44am Jan 22, 2016 7:44am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,047
- Jan 22, 2016 7:51am Jan 22, 2016 7:51am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Thoughts on "smart traders"
What struck down EUR to 100 points January 21, 2016?
Traditionally, on Thursday, after a meeting of the ECB, which, by the way, the interest rate has remained unchanged, with the press conference were Mario Draghi, who "traditionally dumped Euro" a few words.
The key here is "Quotes of oil fell by 40% and we will have to reconsider its policy if the situation does not change."
Additional silver bullets for the Euro began the following words:
"Refugees in Europe could be a problem" (first mentioned)
"Circumstances have changed"
"Significant pressure on prices"
"Inflation is much lower than the target level"
Mario Draghi, has never responded to the expectations of the markets and the markets responded to the ECB's volatility.
What struck down EUR to 100 points January 21, 2016?
Traditionally, on Thursday, after a meeting of the ECB, which, by the way, the interest rate has remained unchanged, with the press conference were Mario Draghi, who "traditionally dumped Euro" a few words.
The key here is "Quotes of oil fell by 40% and we will have to reconsider its policy if the situation does not change."
Additional silver bullets for the Euro began the following words:
"Refugees in Europe could be a problem" (first mentioned)
"Circumstances have changed"
"Significant pressure on prices"
"Inflation is much lower than the target level"
Mario Draghi, has never responded to the expectations of the markets and the markets responded to the ECB's volatility.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,048
- Jan 22, 2016 7:54am Jan 22, 2016 7:54am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Great weekend to everyone
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,050
- Jan 23, 2016 10:53am Jan 23, 2016 10:53am
- Joined Oct 2009 | Status: Exploiting psychology of the crowds | 1,426 Posts
Cut short your losses. Let your profits run on. David Ricardo (1772-1823)
- #2,051
- Jan 23, 2016 11:07am Jan 23, 2016 11:07am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,052
- Jan 24, 2016 2:24am Jan 24, 2016 2:24am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Thoughts on "smart traders"
You will not see $ 100 per barrel of oil, and the rest of the charms of next week
Information bombing continues, news bombing and change its footing in New Zealand on negative data could change their world, from Australia expect two-step rate cut this year, the United States on the other hand is determined by the amount of its increase, the EU confirmed the action in March, and the oil is already never be the same.
NEW ZEALAND
If you remain silent about the oil and China, New Zealand had a double hook this week: milk auction a second time to a number of negative, and the annual inflation rate crept up to the critical 0.1% (the quarterly negative growth of -0.5%).
"Quarterly data consumer price index."
Prices for the New Zealand dairy auction again rolled back to 1.4% in relation to the previous value.
We do not say nothing about the milk, as this is the basis of almost NZ exports.
Tuesday posted quarterly inflation component in the country:
NZ CPI (Q / Q) -0,5% (forecast -0.2%)
CPI NZ (Y / Y) 0.1% (0.3%)
Economy crept close to deflationary threshold, with an eye to the global component - it is likely that New Zealand can step into this maelstrom.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may revise its policy on interest rates. Watch out for the meeting and protocols in this environment!
If at the beginning of the year is not expected changes in monetary policy at the moment, economists speculate that would be rather strange if the central bank does not respond to the new opening.
Watch the messages RBNZ. The pressure can be maintained and its neighbors in the form of Australia.
AUSTRALIA
Australia will receive a dose of fresh statistics as early as next week to our attention quarterly consumer price index, which is accepted to measure inflation in the country.
After New Zealand's analysts now suggest a two-stage reduction in interest rates this year, that's about it said at Morgan Stanley this week.
Well, the expression for the AUD begins the rapid key: January 27, publication of CPI, and on February 2 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
USA
You probably missed the IMF cut its forecast for GDP for the United States and the world at large. For the US, the forecast was reduced from 2.8% to 2.6% in 2016. Next week we will see a supposedly finished as the States 2015: attention to the publication of the preliminary quarterly GDP last period of last year.
Moreover, until publication of the first meeting of FOMC, after which it will be possible to systematize the standby rate (where do without volatility). Total sessions will be 8 this year, analysts predict 3-4 of gradual rate increases in 2016, respectively, the state of the dollar will be based on these expectations and their correction.
CANADA
The Bank of Canada decided to leave interest rates unchanged this time, 0.5% by results of the meeting of BOC (unchanged, as expected). However, as demonstrated by Friday - inflation retreated (perhaps such statement is no surprise), from 1.7% to 1.6% for the annual value to the baseline more tolerant 2% to 1.9%. However, the alert may be monthly growth: 0.4% in fact (for baseline). In the opposite direction - the retail sale, 1.1% increase in expectation of 0.4%.
This creates a great imbalance in which the Canadian dollar will react to the slightest rustle.
The Canadian dollar continued to react to the price position of a barrel of oil, which is the way it is unlikely we'll ever see at the level of $ 100.
EC
Left interest rates unchanged, but Mario Draghi is willing to proceed: in fact at a press conference the chairman of the ECB confirmed market expectations - further easing of monetary policy of the ECB is necessary, can be followed, and the decision on this matter will be taken at the nearest meeting of the Central Bank in March. At Goldman Sachs are already talking about the course 0.95 for EURUSD, but the GS to believe - not love yourself, but some sentiment in the short term, you understand.
The euro will be in the shade and leave only the rays of the inflation data and statements of key individuals.
I would like to draw attention to the presence of the risk of divergence of monetary policy of the US and the EU seems to be simple: States are tightening, Europe softens, but it's priced in, and should be careful with rotations in the USA today (talking about the intentions of raising interest rates as it is, in principle, ).
UNITED KINGDOM
Mark Carney to address shared his disappointment in the growth of the British economy. The annual value of the consumer price index remains at a critical threshold of 0.2% on the fact, when the Central Bank target of 2%. Wage growth is minimal, and the growth of retail sales, and not at -1% in December.
It is necessary to observe the quarterly GDP next week.
You will not see $ 100 per barrel
On the site there was a question about oil, so here is: forget about the $ 100 a barrel for a long time, and better and forget about this figure. We are now a decade historic lows, and to return to the $ 100 you need quite a long time, probably five years or more, if we ever go back.
Imagine this situation: the contest for a long stay in a sauna, so here's just ... sit in the sauna Russia, Saudis, Syria, Canada, Iraq, Qatar, Norway, and of all and sundry to pump the black gold (and dropped a natural happiness ). At some point, the players understand that someone made a mistake and sooner poured water on the stones, and the draft sent pairs in his direction. How to beat a player from the market, I'm sorry ... the sauna? Topped up with more water, and draft and couples will do the job. But at some point it becomes prohibitively hot, the players are almost ready to give up one after the other, if only the temperature began popriyatney, but there it was, the door opens and sets the United States (removed the ban on exports of oil reserves), fresh such healthy, We sat down beside him. Hotter, sweat gushing, and the forces are no more, and that seems to end in the tunnel ... but, no, the door opens and enters Iran (sanctions by the country removed), and not simply comes from him even a bag of ice on which he and land beside.
And the essence of the stories is this: who will remain and the market order.
You will not see $ 100 per barrel of oil, and the rest of the charms of next week
Information bombing continues, news bombing and change its footing in New Zealand on negative data could change their world, from Australia expect two-step rate cut this year, the United States on the other hand is determined by the amount of its increase, the EU confirmed the action in March, and the oil is already never be the same.
NEW ZEALAND
If you remain silent about the oil and China, New Zealand had a double hook this week: milk auction a second time to a number of negative, and the annual inflation rate crept up to the critical 0.1% (the quarterly negative growth of -0.5%).
"Quarterly data consumer price index."
Prices for the New Zealand dairy auction again rolled back to 1.4% in relation to the previous value.
We do not say nothing about the milk, as this is the basis of almost NZ exports.
Tuesday posted quarterly inflation component in the country:
NZ CPI (Q / Q) -0,5% (forecast -0.2%)
CPI NZ (Y / Y) 0.1% (0.3%)
Economy crept close to deflationary threshold, with an eye to the global component - it is likely that New Zealand can step into this maelstrom.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand may revise its policy on interest rates. Watch out for the meeting and protocols in this environment!
If at the beginning of the year is not expected changes in monetary policy at the moment, economists speculate that would be rather strange if the central bank does not respond to the new opening.
Watch the messages RBNZ. The pressure can be maintained and its neighbors in the form of Australia.
AUSTRALIA
Australia will receive a dose of fresh statistics as early as next week to our attention quarterly consumer price index, which is accepted to measure inflation in the country.
After New Zealand's analysts now suggest a two-stage reduction in interest rates this year, that's about it said at Morgan Stanley this week.
Well, the expression for the AUD begins the rapid key: January 27, publication of CPI, and on February 2 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia.
USA
You probably missed the IMF cut its forecast for GDP for the United States and the world at large. For the US, the forecast was reduced from 2.8% to 2.6% in 2016. Next week we will see a supposedly finished as the States 2015: attention to the publication of the preliminary quarterly GDP last period of last year.
Moreover, until publication of the first meeting of FOMC, after which it will be possible to systematize the standby rate (where do without volatility). Total sessions will be 8 this year, analysts predict 3-4 of gradual rate increases in 2016, respectively, the state of the dollar will be based on these expectations and their correction.
CANADA
The Bank of Canada decided to leave interest rates unchanged this time, 0.5% by results of the meeting of BOC (unchanged, as expected). However, as demonstrated by Friday - inflation retreated (perhaps such statement is no surprise), from 1.7% to 1.6% for the annual value to the baseline more tolerant 2% to 1.9%. However, the alert may be monthly growth: 0.4% in fact (for baseline). In the opposite direction - the retail sale, 1.1% increase in expectation of 0.4%.
This creates a great imbalance in which the Canadian dollar will react to the slightest rustle.
The Canadian dollar continued to react to the price position of a barrel of oil, which is the way it is unlikely we'll ever see at the level of $ 100.
EC
Left interest rates unchanged, but Mario Draghi is willing to proceed: in fact at a press conference the chairman of the ECB confirmed market expectations - further easing of monetary policy of the ECB is necessary, can be followed, and the decision on this matter will be taken at the nearest meeting of the Central Bank in March. At Goldman Sachs are already talking about the course 0.95 for EURUSD, but the GS to believe - not love yourself, but some sentiment in the short term, you understand.
The euro will be in the shade and leave only the rays of the inflation data and statements of key individuals.
I would like to draw attention to the presence of the risk of divergence of monetary policy of the US and the EU seems to be simple: States are tightening, Europe softens, but it's priced in, and should be careful with rotations in the USA today (talking about the intentions of raising interest rates as it is, in principle, ).
UNITED KINGDOM
Mark Carney to address shared his disappointment in the growth of the British economy. The annual value of the consumer price index remains at a critical threshold of 0.2% on the fact, when the Central Bank target of 2%. Wage growth is minimal, and the growth of retail sales, and not at -1% in December.
It is necessary to observe the quarterly GDP next week.
You will not see $ 100 per barrel
On the site there was a question about oil, so here is: forget about the $ 100 a barrel for a long time, and better and forget about this figure. We are now a decade historic lows, and to return to the $ 100 you need quite a long time, probably five years or more, if we ever go back.
Imagine this situation: the contest for a long stay in a sauna, so here's just ... sit in the sauna Russia, Saudis, Syria, Canada, Iraq, Qatar, Norway, and of all and sundry to pump the black gold (and dropped a natural happiness ). At some point, the players understand that someone made a mistake and sooner poured water on the stones, and the draft sent pairs in his direction. How to beat a player from the market, I'm sorry ... the sauna? Topped up with more water, and draft and couples will do the job. But at some point it becomes prohibitively hot, the players are almost ready to give up one after the other, if only the temperature began popriyatney, but there it was, the door opens and sets the United States (removed the ban on exports of oil reserves), fresh such healthy, We sat down beside him. Hotter, sweat gushing, and the forces are no more, and that seems to end in the tunnel ... but, no, the door opens and enters Iran (sanctions by the country removed), and not simply comes from him even a bag of ice on which he and land beside.
And the essence of the stories is this: who will remain and the market order.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,053
- Jan 24, 2016 2:27am Jan 24, 2016 2:27am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,054
- Jan 26, 2016 1:12pm Jan 26, 2016 1:12pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,055
- Jan 26, 2016 6:38pm Jan 26, 2016 6:38pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,056
- Edited 6:44am Jan 27, 2016 3:07am | Edited 6:44am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
At 10:30 am EDT the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.
Check expected number a couple of minutes before the publication .
Read this article to get some statistics as well.
*****************************************************************************
Analysts Forecast 3.3-Million-Barrel Rise in Crude Stocks
Published: Jan 26, 2016
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to increase in data due Wednesday from the U.S. Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.
Estimates from 10 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have risen by 3.3 million barrels, on average, in the week ended Jan. 22.
Nine analysts expect stockpiles to rise, while one expects a fall. Forecasts range from a rise of 8.6 million barrels to a drop of 3 million barrels.
The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 1.1 million barrels, according to analysts. Seven analysts expect an increase, with three expecting a decline. Estimates range from a rise of 3.8 million barrels to a drop of 1.5 million barrels.
Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall by 1.9 million barrels. Nine analysts expect a decline, while one sees a rise. Forecasts range from a rise of 200,000 barrels to a drop of 3.5 million barrels.
Refinery use is seen falling 0.7 percentage point to 89.9% of capacity, based on EIA data. Seven analysts expect a decline, while two see no change and one didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from unchanged to a fall of 1.5 points.
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its data for that week showed a very large, 11.4-million-barrel rise in crude supplies, a 4.1-million-barrel increase in gasoline stocks and a 630,000-barrel decline in distillate inventories, according to market participants.
Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Citi Futures Perspective 4.5 1.5 -1.5 -1
Confluence Investment Management 4 0.5 -2.5 unch
Energy Management Institute 3.5 3.8 -1.5 -0.7
Excel Futures 2.7 3 0.2 -0.7
Frost & Sullivan 2 1.5 -2 -1
IAF Advisors 4 -1.5 -1 n/a
Price Futures Group -3 2 -3 unch
Ritterbusch and Associates 8.6 -1 -3.5 -0.7
Schneider Electric 2.9 -0.5 -2.2 -1.5
Tradition Energy 4 2 -2 -0.5
AVERAGE 3.3 1.1 -1.9 -0.7
*********************************************************************
Good luck everybody!
Check expected number a couple of minutes before the publication .
Read this article to get some statistics as well.
*****************************************************************************
Analysts Forecast 3.3-Million-Barrel Rise in Crude Stocks
Published: Jan 26, 2016
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to increase in data due Wednesday from the U.S. Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.
Estimates from 10 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have risen by 3.3 million barrels, on average, in the week ended Jan. 22.
Nine analysts expect stockpiles to rise, while one expects a fall. Forecasts range from a rise of 8.6 million barrels to a drop of 3 million barrels.
The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 1.1 million barrels, according to analysts. Seven analysts expect an increase, with three expecting a decline. Estimates range from a rise of 3.8 million barrels to a drop of 1.5 million barrels.
Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall by 1.9 million barrels. Nine analysts expect a decline, while one sees a rise. Forecasts range from a rise of 200,000 barrels to a drop of 3.5 million barrels.
Refinery use is seen falling 0.7 percentage point to 89.9% of capacity, based on EIA data. Seven analysts expect a decline, while two see no change and one didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from unchanged to a fall of 1.5 points.
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its data for that week showed a very large, 11.4-million-barrel rise in crude supplies, a 4.1-million-barrel increase in gasoline stocks and a 630,000-barrel decline in distillate inventories, according to market participants.
Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Citi Futures Perspective 4.5 1.5 -1.5 -1
Confluence Investment Management 4 0.5 -2.5 unch
Energy Management Institute 3.5 3.8 -1.5 -0.7
Excel Futures 2.7 3 0.2 -0.7
Frost & Sullivan 2 1.5 -2 -1
IAF Advisors 4 -1.5 -1 n/a
Price Futures Group -3 2 -3 unch
Ritterbusch and Associates 8.6 -1 -3.5 -0.7
Schneider Electric 2.9 -0.5 -2.2 -1.5
Tradition Energy 4 2 -2 -0.5
AVERAGE 3.3 1.1 -1.9 -0.7
*********************************************************************
Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,057
- Jan 27, 2016 3:12am Jan 27, 2016 3:12am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #2,059
- Jan 27, 2016 9:03am Jan 27, 2016 9:03am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts
hanging on long ,anyone with ? {image}
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
