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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,801
  • Jan 21, 2016 12:45pm Jan 21, 2016 12:45pm
sisse,

Hi my name is IMARICH1 and I'm a pipaholic. I have relapsed.

Now, that I got that out of the way along with some lashings behind the shed and exposed my naked ignorant thinking in front of all of you to learn if you have any bad trading habits like me, I can proceed to say this is true:

"When you have 90% of the range still in play thinking that you missed the move because you didn't enter in the ultimate high is just ...non sense...."~sisse

It is just that, non-sense. I wanted to SHORT at .108X. Period. I was going to leverage my trade there more than at .097X where the ceiling has been for awhile. However, I was greedy. I wanted the BEST Entry. I looked at .097X as a GOOD Entry, .108X as the BETTER entry and .1115 at the BEST entry. Good would have worked for the 1000 pip drop or TRADE. But, I wanted 100 to 200 more. That's greed and NON-SENSE.

I was just looking at the news and OIL issue to propel EU to that BETTER level and missed.

I realize to a degree I am a disappointment sisse with all that you have invested here. I am learning. Just relapses into bad habits or thinking. I see at this moment the EU has challenged the .0900 level and outside of GOLD climbing and DOLLAR falling as OIL has been on "juice" and testing the $30 handle! I have no clue why or if this means anything other than profit taking. EU above .0860 at the moment.
  • #138,802
  • Jan 21, 2016 12:48pm Jan 21, 2016 12:48pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Hi my name is IMARICH1 and I'm a pipaholic. I have relapsed. Now, that I got that out of the way along with some lashings behind the shed and exposed my naked ignorant thinking in front of all of you to learn if you have any bad trading habits like me, I can proceed to say this is true: "When you have 90% of the range still in play thinking that you missed the move because you didn't enter in the ultimate high is just ...non sense...."~sisse It is just that, non-sense. I wanted to SHORT at .108X. Period. I was going to leverage my trade there...
You may still get your entry
  • #138,803
  • Jan 21, 2016 12:51pm Jan 21, 2016 12:51pm
Quoting primejarvis
{quote} I think you expecting way more from the market/bulls.... Reanalyse all your analysis whether technically or fundamentally
I personally take my words back .... Good analysis but not above the latest spike
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,804
  • Jan 21, 2016 12:51pm Jan 21, 2016 12:51pm
Quoting IMARICH1
.... I may have missed the boat for this MID TERM LEG as I was waiting for the short term leg to complete at around .108X area. I have a small SHORT in play around .097X and should have put more in but waited. My only hope is that there will be a return to the .092X handle prior to the bigger move down.
Yeah but as Sisse has said, forget about small ripples in the big ocean. You have missed the boat, but not really. Zoom out. Opportunities will always appear when they pan out. Wait for everything to settle, e.g. oil, equities! This might be your chance to fill your boat. Look at this instant how much EU has retraced already. Don't panic about micro stuff.

Anyway I'd like to give a special thanks to you as well because hardly anybody has the balls to come out of his comfort zone to ask questions. At least you did it, you came and asked valid questions and I'm sure it helped a lot of people. I know it helped me. Keep it up. I hope Sisse will reconsider about his statement to cease the mapping updates about EU levels.

Quote
--> EURO

$0.9857x(Steel Support <<locked>>)______$1.019(strong)______$1.058x(soft)______$1.086x(flip)[in play]______$1.097x(very strong)______$1.108x(soft)______$1.114x(Steel Resistance <<could be lock today>>)

...and that will pretty much it....The update also kill sisse's mapping updates help for the foreseeable future....

------->>>> I hope some have not only leech the levels but actually learn something in the process ...
  • #138,805
  • Jan 21, 2016 12:52pm Jan 21, 2016 12:52pm
Quoting IMARICH1
...
Forget about what i say or i don't plus you are one of the few ones that have the balls to expose your flaws in a public forum ....so no disappointment you will end up a better trader not because for what i said but because you are facing your inner demons in public ....and thats a fantastic step ...Its a lot easier sitting in my side just hammering on your failures ...

In any case, fck what i said before about if you have missed the boat or not, now that market has spoken (a fresh test 1.09xx) do you still think that you missed the train because you didnt trade the 2 M1 bars when the algos are raised and nobody in the world is trading while the conference open ???

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,806
  • Jan 21, 2016 1:16pm Jan 21, 2016 1:16pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Forget about what i say or i don't plus you are one of the few ones that have the balls to expose your flaws in a public forum ....so no disappointment you will end up a better trader not because for what i said but because you are facing your inner demons in public ....and thats a fantastic step ...Its a lot easier sitting in my side just hammering on your failures ... In any case, fck what i said before about if you have missed the boat or not, now that market has spoken (a fresh test 1.09xx) do you still think that you missed the train...
Thanks Pharm0r and primejarvis.

Thanks ExForX. Glad I am a benefit in some way here on a more advanced forum in Forex Trading.

Thanks sisse for what you said; but, honestly I deserve it all. And, its this kind of correction which will stick with me. I value your input and when I get praise~I remember and when I get scolded~I remember. Its just remembering which was for Praise and which was for scolding! I know I drive you to drink some days! I do myself so I get it ~Trust me!

Did I miss the train? Yes and No. YES, because I have no clue why we have had such a turn around in OIL and EU exposed the .0780 area AND STOPPED and has completely made an entire RETRACE where it started prior to news (algos?- I figured more news DIVE for EU driven on ECB but perhaps after price hit one level another level got hit and the dominos fell with algos) but, now EU has managed to climb back to the TOP. Is this FA or TA or profit taking? I am missing the train because I don't understand what is going on and will just be trading blindly.

However, I do know the MACRO direction on this move-MID TERM LEG. This is a plus.

And yes, I missed the train in my mind because I am still contemplating if a SHORT should be taken at the .0930 handle or .097X handle or a foolish thought of .108X if PA even gets there. It may or may not. I know I need to get in the trade period and leverage myself accordingly. And, that's the problem. I want to get MOST and not ALL. I see MOST at the .097X handle but am telling myself if it gets there, it may hit stops and propel it to the level you seek. I'm a pipoholic and have a problem. Not only that....I want to be right! That's what it is. I want to be right. PRIDE. Its all just non-sense.

On another subject, I don't understand what the MARKET is speaking in lieu of what ECB said now. It seems this is going counter along with OIL making a little comeback before another attempt at the $26 handle. LONDON closed below the .0860 handle and what is NY saying with its direction?

These are the thoughts rambling in my head......so you may not want to say "forget what I said"-just yet.
  • #138,807
  • Jan 21, 2016 1:20pm Jan 21, 2016 1:20pm
Final updates coming after the last moves...Bears in US equities starting to cough at the lows and aligning with European equities after ECB. Without surprises we are set to hold 1850.xx (ES for ref) on the closing range ...important update for this session that will have implications for the FED next week.

--> Changing short term outlook in US EQUITIES from NEUTRAL to SOFT BUY.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,808
  • Jan 21, 2016 1:23pm Jan 21, 2016 1:23pm
Quoting IMARICH1
{quote} Thanks Pharm0r and primejarvis. Thanks ExForX. Glad I am a benefit in some way here on a more advanced forum in Forex Trading. Thanks sisse for what you said; but, honestly I deserve it all. And, its this kind of correction which will stick with me. I value your input and when I get praise~I remember and when I get scolded~I remember. Its just remembering which was for Praise and which was for scolding! I know I drive you to drink some days! I do myself so I get it ~Trust me! Did I miss the train? Yes and No. YES, because I have no clue...
Don't forget man....we are only 3 weeks into 2016.
  • #138,809
  • Jan 21, 2016 2:14pm Jan 21, 2016 2:14pm
...and after all the wide explosion in volatility in the EURO we are back to square one in chop zone. 1.086x is pretty much set to hold one more time. Final update of a very important day for trading as we have major game changer for the rest of the Quarter in most key markets that when reconfirmed next Wednesday will provide momentum moves across the board.... but for today:

Final update of the ECB day:

--> Reconfirming short term outlook (since the last 2 weeks) in EURO in NEUTRAL

Not much to do today as I am pretty much flat across the board but looking for short term positions in Euro again and Equities.

Euro holding 1.086x for the roll and we have same levels, reopen same play as the last 2 weeks and same all until the FED....

OIL got very complex now that we have soft floor set so staying sidelined until further data.

DXY keep sitting in imminent break up so just a little bit more patience with all eyes and money just setting up to load very heavy for the mid term legs across the FX board with DOLLAR breaking up if the FED gives the go ahead as early as this month ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,810
  • Jan 21, 2016 2:41pm Jan 21, 2016 2:41pm
Quoting sisse
...and after all the wide explosion in volatility in the EURO we are back to square one in chop zone. 1.086x is pretty much set to hold one more time. Final update of a very important day for trading as we have major game changer for the rest of the Quarter in most key markets that when reconfirmed next Wednesday will provide momentum moves across the board.... but for today: Final update of the ECB day: --> Reconfirming short term outlook (since the last 2 weeks) in EURO in NEUTRAL Not much to do today as I am pretty much...
bastards 086x holding again is the least I expected ...bulls hope is restored
Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #138,811
  • Jan 21, 2016 3:44pm Jan 21, 2016 3:44pm
Quoting sisse
Fourth important update (this is sadly a bad one for USDBear): --> Changing short term BUND outlook from SELL to BUY (breakout TBconfirmed today and its a bad one for shorts) sisse
thanks sisse,
yes bad timing here, will keep the stop @ 162 with oil on possible bottom and China the same, I'll take my chance
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,812
  • Jan 21, 2016 4:26pm Jan 21, 2016 4:26pm
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} thanks sisse, yes bad timing here, will keep the stop @ 162 with oil on possible bottom and China the same, I'll take my chance

In times of deflation if whe really have 1 but the markets say so far govt bonds are good investments so bullish in this case.
  • #138,813
  • Jan 21, 2016 4:29pm Jan 21, 2016 4:29pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Nice to see you around ...I have been telling this for a while now. The sooner the junkies stop depending on Free Money and Low interest rates the faster the long term recovery will be. The FED took the plunge, if they sit tight and avoid the noise and knee jerk reaction after the hikes I think we may turn the page rather soon this Quarter.... Whatever the case, we may have or about to see the bottom in US equites for the mid and long term. In my books we are crumbs away from a TA point of view and only the collapse in OIL and jitters in...
I agree with your range view. Fed its next move will be important i think they gonna cut and admit there mistake time will tell. If it is too late don't know. Ecb is talking a lot they say march they postpone everytime bundesbank is the trouble maker i think.
  • #138,814
  • Jan 21, 2016 9:07pm Jan 21, 2016 9:07pm
Quoting sisse
... a very important day for trading as we have major game changer for the rest of the Quarter in most key markets that when reconfirmed next Wednesday will provide momentum moves across the board....
Jan FOMC will seal the deal, a Q1 rally for US equities and a volatility collapse is what I am betting on....
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,815
  • Edited 10:17pm Jan 21, 2016 10:04pm | Edited 10:17pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} No way mate!!!! ...you will need a major world catastrophe to even consider those levels. Bottom is around the corner and will be the buy and hold that will last for a long long long long time ...I will even coin the term right now as the Millennials Pension Retirement Bottom ... For now just crumbs left in equities, trading inside major fundamental value areas in a lot of stocks and major sectorial indices.... i wouldn't bet the farm on a much deeper move down at these levels ... sisse
I don't think catastrophe is the right word, but we do have some red flags at the moment.

156x is a 27% drop from the highs. I wouldn't call that a catastrophe by any stretch. TA wise alone, it looks entirely achievable. I won't be looking to buy until those levels. I don't have my money on the drop (yet). I will be selling a dead cat around 1945/85.

On the Weekly, I am currently tracking 1880 for the close. A close below and 1780/1750 looks like a given, where we have some support, 23.6 fib, and more importantly (I know you don't use these) the big mother TL, which were well respected in 2000/2001 and 2007/2008.
  • #138,816
  • Jan 21, 2016 11:46pm Jan 21, 2016 11:46pm
Was an interesting reaction. Very dovish sell the rumor on QE but after December's disappointment where Draghi lost a bit of pull. He was probably hamstrung by the Germans like Ingmar says but still... There were alot of players fading the news at strong value areas.

He'll get the benefit of the doubt again, it's just the China/Oil effect that can hold 1.086 so let's see how that goes. Between those strong, strong NFP numbers on the US side (1.0859.) and now this they're running out of excuses to hold it.

Plus risks are balancing on the downside for the weekly break today because of the potential asymmetric impact of the Euro manufacturing news. Euro manufacturing numbers tick up and that puts a dampener on worldwide demand/growth fears dampening China/oil impact and weakening Euro collateral flows relating to that; while a tick-down just further spurs expectations for Draghi to act in March.

Let's see if we can break the level for this week.

And, the update on the Aussie. Strong oil and equity rally has the commodity currencies unwinding their strong moves.

[quote=ClinicalEx;]{quote} We faded the bulls sitting on the level (maybe for the last time in a long while if risk gets as bad as I'm increasingly beginning to suspect.) We are in need of some (alot.) of good news to save the day on that front. √ Looking ahead, still have the important October low then the 2015 low on DAX to contend with so let's see how that goes.√ (held.) If they hold it puts paid to the (follow-through of.) the more probable plays at this stage on the Euro- buying at around 1.092 (failed quickly on DAX initially bottoming off October low.)
  • #138,817
  • Jan 22, 2016 2:50am Jan 22, 2016 2:50am
Soft numbers in Europe keep confirming what is pretty much a done deal for now (more QE in March). We are pretty much clear across the board for rather soft technical continuation moves after the key changes yesterday on the ECB plays till the FED next week....

European opening session also perfectly timed, back to trading areas for today 974x.x for DAX and 1.086x for Euro, the rest is noise till the W close....

sisse

Quoting diggo
{quote} ..., but we do have some red flags at the moment. 156x is a 27% drop from the highs. I wouldn't call that a catastrophe by any stretch. TA wise alone, it looks entirely achievable. I won't be looking to buy until those levels., A close below and 1780/1750 looks like a given, where we have some support, 23.6 fib, and more importantly (I know you don't use these) the big mother TL, which were well respected in 2000/2001 and 2007/2008.
I see what you mean TAwise but I don't think the US economy is in the same levels as it was in 2012/3. Employment and macro numbers are very solid in almost all sectors, inflation is a small problem via low OIL but in general with normalisation under way I don't see any fundamental reason to go that low neither any financials in the main sectors that support such a move.

We'll see

Quoting The Fool
{quote} Jan FOMC will seal the deal, a Q1 rally for US equities and a volatility collapse is what I am betting on....
Agree...
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,818
  • Jan 22, 2016 5:22am Jan 22, 2016 5:22am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Nice to see you around ...I have been telling this for a while now. The sooner the junkies stop depending on Free Money and Low interest rates the faster the long term recovery will be. The FED took the plunge, if they sit tight and avoid the noise and knee jerk reaction after the hikes I think we may turn the page rather soon this Quarter.... Whatever the case, we may have or about to see the bottom in US equites for the mid and long term. In my books we are crumbs away from a TA point of view and only the collapse in OIL and jitters in...
Hello sisse:

Can you expand further on your statement Neither macro fundamentals, or business financials, neither monetary policy justify US markets much lower than the current lows.

What are these business financials for example that justify calling a possible low now ?

Borg
May the Forex be with you.
  • #138,819
  • Jan 22, 2016 6:54am Jan 22, 2016 6:54am
--> Strong European session, OIL flying on steroids with very decent profit taking as suspected since yesterday. All set for NY, and US equities looks for a very decent leg (1950.xx for ref in S&P) with FED doing nothing next week.

--> Euro easily held 1.086x triggering the timid continuation leg for the news flow but given the size and scope of the moves that are happening across the board, EURO still look pretty much subdue and in very choppy conditions. All eyes on 1.086x for the W close but for now not much to do till NY....

Quoting Borg
{quote} Hello sisse: Can you expand further on your statement Neither macro fundamentals, or business financials, neither monetary policy justify US markets much lower than the current lows. What are these business financials for example that justify calling a possible low now ? Borg
Ufff .... well that is digging deeper in stock investment and valuations and I don't think s neither the place to go in details or discuss specifics about how to determine value in stocks. I don't know your background in stocks and your investment experience but in general and bastardising the concept you can run a series of conditions to find value using companies financial reports and their balance sheets.

If you run a series of test across balanced portfolios with the largest component in different sectors you can have a rough map if a sector in general is entering in value areas that are considered cheap or expensive in relation to their financial position.

Despite of knowing exactly the entry point what you are doing is trying to know / define when value is trading too far from the historical normal deviation of the portfolio, etc, etc.. If its too far up its prolly a good signal not to close but to "avoid adding positions as you could be the sucker buying at the highs".

Same applies to the other side, if you are way too far out from the normal standard deviation either we are entering in a major crisis (e.g Lehman collapse, etC) or the sector is having a MAJOR long term value correction (e.g energy oil) and you will have to look at the macro fundamentals to triple check whats going on before, otherwise you will be cough selling the lows (and thats is one the most painful position in equities as equities are not like FX that price can range for a few hundred ticks and come back the day after ...etc) .

In stocks and equities selling is NEVER a sustainable long term strategy (not like in Currencies, etc where buy or sell have neutral implication) and is always best done in a quick 'shock and awe' clean sharp moves.

Actually when the deviation of the value goes down in general the best possible strategy is looking for buying opportunities. If a correction is deeper (like the current one) is the best time to start looking for deep long term investment as those are going to give you the best 'long and hold' opportunities in the long term ...

I hope it helps.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,820
  • Jan 22, 2016 7:02am Jan 22, 2016 7:02am
Quoting sisse
--> Strong European session, OIL flying on steroids with very decent profit taking as suspected since yesterday. All set for NY, and US equities looks for a very decent leg (1950.xx for ref in S&P) with FED doing nothing next week. --> Euro easily held 1.086x triggering the timid continuation leg for the news flow but given the size and scope of the moves that are happening across the board, EURO still look pretty much subdue and in very choppy conditions. All eyes on 1.086x for the W close but for now not much to do till NY.... {quote} Ufff .......
sisse how is the 1.080x level in your matter. should a sell be opened there for a move down to 1.070x. I am assuming 1.0772 won't hold
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