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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,761
  • Jan 21, 2016 3:52am Jan 21, 2016 3:52am
Quoting ingmarforex
{quote} What about a nice heroine shot for the market from China this year #stimulus #Faceripper 2016 who knows. or a dull bear market rally.
Nice to see you around ...I have been telling this for a while now. The sooner the junkies stop depending on Free Money and Low interest rates the faster the long term recovery will be. The FED took the plunge, if they sit tight and avoid the noise and knee jerk reaction after the hikes I think we may turn the page rather soon this Quarter....

Whatever the case, we may have or about to see the bottom in US equites for the mid and long term. In my books we are crumbs away from a TA point of view and only the collapse in OIL and jitters in China are still weighting heavy in the very short term.

Neither macro fundamentals, or business financials, neither monetary policy justify US markets much lower than the current lows. Correction will be done and confirmed by the end of the month. What is clear is that we will be stuck in the current range (2100 / 1800 S&P ref) prolly for the rest of the year or at least until normalisation is well underway (+/-US elections) ...

We'll see

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,762
  • Jan 21, 2016 6:13am Jan 21, 2016 6:13am
...and here we go again for another ECB but before going in details....Sounds like a broken record and a bit unbelievable really but one more time today just before ECB and inventories OIL triggering fresh "imminent break down alerts" ...so far all breaks have just slowly hammered the lows without a decisive push down ...today may be the last one in play for a while after the ECB / inventories combo....

Whatever the case, for the first time this year All eyes on the EURO that will take the driver seat till Europe goes home.

Not expected at all a change in rates but eyes on the headline just in case. A surprise cut will send Euro non stop to 1.073x before even the conference start.... However, expecting a mover and shaker on the conference ... details later....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,763
  • Jan 21, 2016 6:45am Jan 21, 2016 6:45am
Now lets C how ecb give's us a new year gift .....

all s/l set with no T/p ..... both direction are open and ready for a break.... if ecb doesn't take it in any direction today i wont see the chart for atleast a month ..... will the whole month ..... rates are all the same nothing new .... nothing to see until conference....
Re-Incarnated
  • #138,764
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:06am Jan 21, 2016 7:06am
Markets expecting comments and reaction from the ECB and with equities in meltdown any slight comment/outlook will create reaction in hypersensitive markets. Since the last 2 times ready in advance and publishing this before Bloomberg, FT or one of the idiots journalist leak some noise before as they have done in the last few times ....

---> On the fundamental side:

2 things to track today: The impact of OIL in Inflation outlook and any hints aggressive QE in size or scope / further rates cuts hints for MARCH.

Markets (bastards primarily) are screaming for more free money at these levels and ECB delivering expectations of more QE will set a hard bottom in European Equities, and align Euro with the rest of the currency board making the DXY imminent break up a reality in no time...

---> On the technical side:

Things clearer after this week selloff in equities while OIL is still aiming to find a floor. Direct and clear TA maps in general across the board....

 

  1. More QE (dovish ECB) or rate cuts will set a short term bottom in equites (DAX 9250/2x for ref) leaving the technicals to complete the zig zag till the FED/M close next week (DAX ref 974x as fresh flip). The ??? is still OIL as we have inventories on top. More QE with inventories will allow oil to form a short term floor on a test of the lows of the $26.xx handle.
  2. A cautious ECB / uneventful outlook will just trigger soft continuation moves across the board until the FED settle the deal next week with all same pending 'crumbs' left to be completed in the upcoming sessions.
  3. Euro is a case apart this time. It looks very very very heavy at these levels.

    1. An aggressive ECB (QE or related) will truncate the current short term leg marking the HIGH of the month (and Quarter !!!) closing levels all the way down to 1.097x for the foreseeable future and unlocking a quick test of 2015 lows and 1.021x for this Quarter.
    2. An expected ECB without much juice in inflation and QE expectations will just trigger continuation of the current moves (a test 1.108x) until OIL and Equities find a more solid foot.


​---> For the actual news flows (euro only)

Euro in extreme chop moving as collateral of the major moves across the board. Bulls are literally hanging on air until today ECB but we have a news flow for a potential mid term play today so a mover and shaker expected.

No surprises the last 2 weeks 1.086x is the flip level but right now is naked and too clear for even the most sluggish trader around. As usual for these kind of news, all MICRO levels raised until the first few questions in the conference are clear:

  1. A inline/nothing new ECB (meaning poor inflation outlook, more QE in March or June but not details and open to more rate cuts without committing) all just set a direct move 1.089x (1.086x or 1.083x if you are from below) -> 1.108x with a short stop at the 1.097x until OIL clears up. If OIL gives the go ahead right away will have the extension to 1.114x for the FED/monthly close combo
  2. A major QE or a super dovish ECB will just tigger a soft zigzag to 1.094x/7x until OIL clears up before leaving 1.086x naked for a break down on inertia to 1.073x till the FED/monthly close and unlocking the mid term swing ....

GL all

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,765
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:22am Jan 21, 2016 7:22am
Quoting sisse
Whatever the case, we may have or about to see the bottom in US equites for the mid and long term. In my books we are crumbs away from a TA point of view and only the collapse in OIL and jitters in China are still weighting heavy in the very short term. Neither macro fundamentals, or business financials, neither monetary policy justify US markets much lower than the current lows. Correction will be done and confirmed by the end of the month. What is clear is that we will be stuck in the current range (2100 / 1800 S&P ref) prolly for the rest of...
will be interesting to see what happens if oil slide continues and looks for $20 or even lower.....the only supply disruption it seems (which is the cure to the supply glut) will have to be the painful shake out of the weak hand marginal producers (as nobody is assuming the role of a major swing producer and voluntarily cutting production).......hard to see US equities rallying in the face of a continued slide in oil price.....and the effects of a wave of bk's in the N. American oil patch and their associated banks is not gonna be welcome news on Wall Street, either.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,766
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:33am Jan 21, 2016 7:33am
Low interest rates guaranteed for a while ... ..inflation offf !!!! ++++ MARCH review for more QE !!!!...watch out for stocks finding aa hard floor for the rest of the Quarter...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,767
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:36am Jan 21, 2016 7:36am
First important update on the conference:

--> Changing short term outlook in European Equites from Sell to soft BUY

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,768
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:38am Jan 21, 2016 7:38am
Did Draghi trip and break his arm?
  • #138,769
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:40am Jan 21, 2016 7:40am
Second important update in Euro

--> Confirming Euro mid term outlook from SELL to VERY STRONG SELL ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,770
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:43am Jan 21, 2016 7:43am
Third important update in GOLD

--> Changing short term outlook from Neutral to SELL...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,771
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:45am Jan 21, 2016 7:45am
Out of all except my lovely 1.07xx trade. Not looking to hott, but thems is the bricks
  • #138,772
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:45am Jan 21, 2016 7:45am
sisse,

Has the shipped sailed for an opportunity to the 1.108X/.097X handle on the MID TERM LEG from a TA and FA standpoint? I didn't load enough shorts.
  • #138,773
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:46am Jan 21, 2016 7:46am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Has the shipped sailed for an opportunity to the 1.108X/.097X handle on the MID TERM LEG from a TA and FA standpoint? I didn't load enough shorts.

ARGGG !!!! ...you make angry mate ... FOR GOD SAKE listen to the conference at least ...stop thinking in your microscopic view of such a large moves....

...so let me ask you back the 1500 ticks in play are gone in 2 M5 candles or whatever before the conference end and NY open, etc etc ... what part of all micro levels are raised during the news is not clear ....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,774
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:50am Jan 21, 2016 7:50am
Quoting sisse
Third important update in GOLD --> Changing short term outlook from Neutral to SELL... sisse
I don't understand this one. Wouldn't more QE/low interest rates mean more people buying Gold? I have a large long position and was looking for 1160+. Now you have me worried and not sure if I should bail!
  • #138,775
  • Edited 11:26am Jan 21, 2016 7:51am | Edited 11:26am
sisse,

Sorry. I am following. From what I am reading and your observations. It appears I may have missed the opportunity to fill the boat more. It appears this news will fuel the MID TERM LEG. I was just wanting another shot to the .097X handle once again. I was waiting on OIL and Equities to make a final leg down. I just am thinking I didn't fill my boat enough and missed unless there will be some news to drive it up to the .09XX handle again.

I understand how the news fueled the micro levels. Theses are the news flows right now that increased the micro levels. But, I am still seeing OIL and EQUITIES make another leg down which would give EU a little push upward. Unless I am ignorant for thinking this leg in OIL will no longer be a driver for EU to see the .097X handle again. I also know NY has not even had a vote in this yet.
  • #138,776
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:52am Jan 21, 2016 7:52am
Fourth important update (this is sadly a bad one for USDBear):

--> Changing short term BUND outlook from SELL to BUY (breakout TBconfirmed today and its a bad one for shorts)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,777
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:52am Jan 21, 2016 7:52am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Bought E against U. If there will be no sign of bull, than will wait till 1.07939 (also a marked level from previous affair).
Lets see.

If this level not, than:
Quoting hathor
Viewer Discretion Is Advised. With my current higher time frame signals, the map is the following for me (until opposite direction signals arrives): {image} In case of falling back, the closer I can buy to point 'C' (might even under it...), the happier I will be: {image}
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,778
  • Jan 21, 2016 7:56am Jan 21, 2016 7:56am
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, Sorry. I am following. From what I am reading and your observations. It appears I may have missed the opportunity to fill the boat more. It appears this news will fuel the MID TERM LEG. I was just wanting another shot to the .097X handle once again. I was waiting on OIL and Equities to make a final leg down. I just am thinking I didn't fill my boat enough and missed unless there will be some news to drive it up to the .09XX handle again. I understand how the news fueled the micro levels. Theses are the news flows right now that increased...
This is what is flirting to play out. Let the money come back to the table, NY to open and inventories to clear. ...

Quoting sisse

  1. An aggressive ECB (QE or related) will truncate the current short term leg marking the HIGH of the month (and Quarter !!!) closing levels all the way down to 1.097x for the foreseeable future and unlocking a quick test of 2015 lows and 1.021x for this Quarter.

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,779
  • Jan 21, 2016 8:02am Jan 21, 2016 8:02am
...and thats was pretty much it. A mover and shaker conference as expected. Equities floor is pretty much set, GOLD and Euro are back on business and OIL is the only one left pending.

DOLLAR looks ready and triggering IMMINENT BREAK ALERTs !!!...watchout as this is a major break and will have a impact in ALL PAIRs and CROSSES in FX board....

Tracking the open and inventories and flat as pancake in the Euro after 1,086x was taken (as suspected since yesterday .... 1.086x couldn't hold a new test)

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,780
  • Edited 8:51am Jan 21, 2016 8:15am | Edited 8:51am
sisse,

My plan stays the same. I wait for actual flows to come in, after the news, and remain with my levels I am tracking in EU. I still believe the compression building on Monthly chart and the 12 or so failed attempts at the .097X handle is still calling for one last test from a pure TA side to hit stops in plays that could extend this to the .108X handle and solidify the top for the MID TERM LEG.

However, with Equities floor pretty much set it does damper this TA. My hope is that OIL needing to find a floor, will fuel EU a short term last leg as well before MID TERM LEG is totally in play.

.0780/.080X handle held for now and if Inventories and NY align with my view then I have another opportunity and prob last time to reload at this level. I am not confident the .108X handle nor 1.1115 is within reach now with floors and ceilings being set in Markets.

I am sure to get my chops busted here from the all knowing OZ. I bet he wants to take me outback the schoolhouse and just give me several lashings....Lol
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