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USD/CAD

  • #9,061
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:06am Jan 20, 2016 10:06am
Quoting MdogKamileo
What is wrong with this pair... ;o
Watch oil
  • #9,062
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:07am Jan 20, 2016 10:07am
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
You got to love the volatility... Longs getting blasted, shorts getting blasted. Straight down, straight back up. No mans land.
Two way whipsaw, dust won't settle until after the policy statement.

I guess bulls are disappointed by the rate decision but they are not giving up because fundamentals especially the oil price is on their side, for now.
  • #9,063
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:10am Jan 20, 2016 10:10am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Watch oil
I see it, but I think that this retrace was too high...
Trust only yourself
  • #9,064
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:17am Jan 20, 2016 10:17am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Two way whipsaw, dust won't settle until after the policy statement. I guess bulls are disappointed by the rate decision but they are not giving up because fundamentals especially the oil price is on their side, for now.
Quoting broketrader
My bet... If no rate cut => small swing lower, then UP I rate cut => straight UP
Finally, I was not so wrong...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #9,065
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:23am Jan 20, 2016 10:23am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} The worst blow that Poloz can deal to bulls is by saying "fiscal policy is more appropriate for the current economic situation in Canada", if we hear anything like that, we are going back to 1.3
From ForexLive

Bank of Canada's Poloz: Likelihood of new fiscal stimulus 'important consideration'
Highlights of Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz' press conference:

  1. Must be mindful that further rapid CAD depreciation could push overall inflation higher relatively quickly
  2. Deliberations began with a bias to ease
  3. Most of oil shock built into Oct forecasts
  4. Since Oct, the magnitude of the shock of lower oil prices has clearly grown
  5. Encouraged by economy's resilience, flexibiltity
  6. Sees two track economy with resources shrinking, other sectors picking up

So, ummmm, what do you think guys?

I see further depreciation of CAD limited, we might have a period of ranging and maybe retracement, until new shocks comes in, and of course if a rebound of oil happens, we might go back down to 1.3

  • #9,066
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:27am Jan 20, 2016 10:27am
Long-term Resistance level @ 1.5052 - 1.516. Price is in a parabolic state at this point, so watch out for blow-off tops.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADWeekly.png Size: 58 KB



___________________________________________
>> Quinton’s Simple & Effortless Trading thread
  • #9,067
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:27am Jan 20, 2016 10:27am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} From ForexLive Bank of Canada's Poloz: Likelihood of new fiscal stimulus 'important consideration' Highlights of Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz' press conference: Must be mindful that further rapid CAD depreciation could push overall inflation higher relatively quickly Deliberations began with a bias to ease Most of oil shock built into Oct forecasts Since Oct, the magnitude of the shock of lower oil prices has clearly grown...
I maintain my view of USDCAD at 1.5100 in the coming weeks.

Look how the today's "no cut" surprise has been digested...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #9,068
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:43am Jan 20, 2016 10:43am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} I maintain my view of USDCAD at 1.5100 in the coming weeks. Look how the today's "no cut" surprise has been digested...
There's nothing too dovish in his speech either, can't see why USDCAD would continue its course without some kind of adjustment, he even said in some condition fast moving currency would be negative for economy.

Of course current environment means anything is possible, but the momentum of past two weeks can't continue forever, and I think USDCAD long is a extremely crowded trade now and very fragile as a result.
  • #9,069
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:46am Jan 20, 2016 10:46am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} I maintain my view of USDCAD at 1.5100 in the coming weeks. Look how the today's "no cut" surprise has been digested...
Agree 100%
Today was nothing new... everything status quo
The only thing that I think can move the CAD (@moment) is OPEC/Iran, etc =Oil
don't get in love with pairs ... up or down is the same pip value
  • #9,070
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:48am Jan 20, 2016 10:48am
CAD BoC's Poloz: "No magic number" in currency decline to prompt action; he's not worried about a global recession.
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
  • #9,071
  • Jan 20, 2016 10:53am Jan 20, 2016 10:53am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} There's nothing too dovish in his speech either, can't see why USDCAD would continue its course without some kind of adjustment, he even said in some condition fast moving currency would be negative for economy. Of course current environment means anything is possible, but the momentum of past two weeks can't continue forever, and I think USDCAD long is a extremely crowded trade now and very fragile as a result.
I could agree from a fundamental perspective.

But I just look at the technicals and I'm still conservative because 1.60+ (historical high) is also possible in the coming months. Of course, there will be moments of congestion/correction but this is the normal course in any price movement.

Anyway, it's interesting having divergent views...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #9,072
  • Jan 20, 2016 11:04am Jan 20, 2016 11:04am
Quoting broketrader
{quote} I could agree from a fundamental perspective. But I just look at the technicals and I'm still conservative because 1.60+ (historical high) is also possible in the coming months. Of course, there will be moments of congestion/correction but this is the normal course in any price movement. Anyway, it's interesting having divergent views...
As we speak, oil broke $28, not a very good sign.
  • #9,073
  • Jan 20, 2016 11:25am Jan 20, 2016 11:25am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} As we speak, oil broke $28, not a very good sign.
Going south, next stop $25 ...
Simplicity is the Ultimate Sophistication.
  • #9,074
  • Jan 20, 2016 11:40am Jan 20, 2016 11:40am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} Closed half +130 pips {image}
Gratz, seems we were in the same trade. Only I did not really see 10 pips risk, I was a little bigger for me. screenshot:
Attached Image

Or the full story: http://lostinforex.com/2016-01-20-us...n-h4-timeframe
buying tops / selling bottoms
  • #9,075
  • Jan 20, 2016 12:02pm Jan 20, 2016 12:02pm
What do you think ?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD H1 (01-20-2016 2101).jpg Size: 114 KB
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
  • #9,076
  • Jan 20, 2016 12:21pm Jan 20, 2016 12:21pm
If it goes below 1.4425, I think it will reach ~1.40
  • #9,077
  • Jan 20, 2016 12:38pm Jan 20, 2016 12:38pm
ohhhh, crazy move as i thought
lets hope for a little slip down for good pips
Investing is SIMPLE but NOT EASY
  • #9,078
  • Jan 20, 2016 12:42pm Jan 20, 2016 12:42pm
Quoting albarbary
What do you think ? {image}
Thats not dark cloud imho but tweezers. However its a trend reversal pattern so if you hope for bears, maybe its a good sign.
Stay green! FN
  • #9,079
  • Jan 20, 2016 12:47pm Jan 20, 2016 12:47pm
Quoting albarbary
What do you think ? {image}
Its not the first sign...

But who know this time..
Trust only yourself
  • #9,080
  • Jan 20, 2016 12:51pm Jan 20, 2016 12:51pm
I don't know if I've ever done this before, I'm not known for my excellent timing into a trade. So, I'm just going to post it here for posterity. I think my new routine for entering trades will be as follows. Wake up in the middle of the night. Take some Advil for a throbbing headache. Check the market on the phone... "Oh that looks like a good spot to get short..." Literally end up selling a couple of lots at the top (at least for now...). Amounts are blacked out "cuz none-ya-bizness". Now the next time I have a really crappy entry I can just come back here and bask in the glow of "remember that one time..."
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: lucky1.png Size: 22 KB
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
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