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USD/CAD

  • #9,001
  • Jan 19, 2016 6:40am Jan 19, 2016 6:40am
Long U/C
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  • #9,002
  • Jan 19, 2016 6:51am Jan 19, 2016 6:51am
Quoting albarbary
BoC can not cut interest rates, because that will lead to a very strong rise of prices, and the low price of oil does not encourage that, I think BoC will raise interest rates , Canda is not japan

If the BoC somehow decided to raise rates and the Fed decided not to raise 4 times this year... You'll find me in Hawaii this time next year rolling in my USD/CAD shorts.
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #9,003
  • Jan 19, 2016 7:27am Jan 19, 2016 7:27am
Quoting TheFxAnalyst
{quote} If the BoC somehow decided to raise rates and the Fed decided not to raise 4 times this year... You'll find me in Hawaii this time next year rolling in my USD/CAD shorts.
Enjoy
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
  • #9,004
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:21am Jan 19, 2016 11:21am
UC gaining alot of strength right now
  • #9,005
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:59am Jan 19, 2016 11:59am
Quoting Shiv999
Long U/C
Will enter shorts at 1.46000-1.46650
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  • #9,006
  • Edited 12:51pm Jan 19, 2016 12:23pm | Edited 12:51pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Could be, all eyes on 20th Jan BOC meeting now. I come across this: http://news.forexlive.com/!/how-to-t...-baml-20160118 Take away from the article is that the market is pricing a 50% cut in Jan meeting and almost 100% cut in Mar meeting, in contrast to just 6% Jan cut back in Dec. This means shorts have piled into CAD shorts anticipating BOC cuts. I can understand why people think BOC will cut, and at 0.5% when some other CB have negative rate, there is indeed space to cut for BOC, but do they really need...
Trade idea.
Since market has been pricing BOC rate cut so aggressively, I would sell a spike high in case of a "cut", and buy a spike low in case of a "no cut".

The idea is that for "cut", this is a buy rumour sell fact, esp. given the probability been pricing in so high, the immediate focus after a cut will be "there won't be a cut for a while"

For "no cut", market will adjust positioning which would lead to a initial sell off, but at some point market will re-focus on when next cut will be, thus lead to USDCAD appreciation.

For levels, will watch 1.4625, 1.4714 and 1.4960 to the upside, 1.4420, 1.4311 and 1.4190 to the downside.

I don't think this BOC decision is a trend changer in the long run, but it will provide direction for the next few weeks.

After this watch FOMC on 27th Jan, since it will affect overall USD strength
  • #9,007
  • Jan 19, 2016 2:10pm Jan 19, 2016 2:10pm
Next target above I think
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADDaily.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADWeekly.png Size: 21 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADMonthly.png Size: 27 KB
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #9,008
  • Jan 19, 2016 6:18pm Jan 19, 2016 6:18pm
Adding into shorts at 1.4600 for a retrace back to 1.4000
  • #9,009
  • Jan 19, 2016 8:43pm Jan 19, 2016 8:43pm
My prognose in USDCAD.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADH1.png Size: 24 KB
  • #9,010
  • Jan 19, 2016 8:50pm Jan 19, 2016 8:50pm
Quoting FXClarity
Adding into shorts at 1.4600 for a retrace back to 1.4000
Yes. it is right.
  • #9,011
  • Jan 19, 2016 8:56pm Jan 19, 2016 8:56pm
Quoting Sitkhi
{quote} Yes. it is right.
So U/C will drop?
  • #9,012
  • Jan 19, 2016 10:32pm Jan 19, 2016 10:32pm
Quoting belinolimits
{quote} So U/C will drop?
i thinking U/C will drop to almost 1.4111.
  • #9,013
  • Jan 19, 2016 10:42pm Jan 19, 2016 10:42pm
Quoting Shiv999
{quote} Will enter shorts at 1.46000-1.46650
Although price's reached where I was expecting but I would be cautious and wait.. Next short target is 1.47250 for few pips
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  • #9,014
  • Jan 19, 2016 10:46pm Jan 19, 2016 10:46pm
Quoting Sitkhi
{quote} i thinking U/C will drop to almost 1.4111.
May I ask why?
With cad following oil, almost perfectly ., I don't know
don't get in love with pairs ... up or down is the same pip value
  • #9,015
  • Jan 19, 2016 10:54pm Jan 19, 2016 10:54pm
Quoting Hollyforex
{quote} May I ask why? With cad following oil, almost perfectly ., I don't know
Candles said about that for me.
  • #9,016
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:17pm Jan 19, 2016 11:17pm
My short analysis on UC for today. Simple: sell.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8698774

Price went a bit further than I thought it would, I will wait for BoC statement to do anything.
Stay green! FN
  • #9,017
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:22pm Jan 19, 2016 11:22pm
Quoting forexn00b
My short analysis on UC for today. Simple: sell. http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...74#post8698774 Price went a bit further than I thought it would, I will wait for BoC statement to do anything.
A Rate cut will only lead it to continue the same upward trend.
Losers Hope, Winners Believe
  • #9,018
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:31pm Jan 19, 2016 11:31pm
Quoting Ill-b-back
Next target above I think {image} {image} {image}
shorting at current price is likely to lead to significant drawdown IMO
Come with me if you want to live....
  • #9,019
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:48pm Jan 19, 2016 11:48pm
Quoting Shiv999
{quote} A Rate cut will only lead it to continue the same upward trend.
"If BoC wont cut rates, this is a big drop at least to 1.40."
Stay green! FN
  • #9,020
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:55pm Jan 19, 2016 11:55pm
Quoting forexn00b
{quote} "If BoC wont cut rates, this is a big drop at least to 1.40."
or nothing will happen, I would recommend to stay aside from this pair today if one do not have a rather huge account to risk
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