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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #18,941
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:13am Jan 18, 2016 2:13am
I think DAX will rise today unless we see US futures tank. Oil is back under $30 and US futures are green for now.
  • #18,942
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:17am Jan 18, 2016 2:17am
There are news this week from Bank Of America, Ebay, IBM, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Starbucks, Netfix, some Airlines & General Electric.
FXcube
  • #18,943
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:24am Jan 18, 2016 2:24am
Quoting medici
{quote} Oh, absolutely. Markets and situations are different. The oil market tends to be very good at discounting the future, not least because of the impact of future oil prices on the whole economy. Which brings the next question: Do rising/falling oil prices cause the same moves in equities, or is something else going on?
Possibly not the same moves across different Indices, probably the Dax is least affected, if anything falling Oil/Gasoline/Petrol prices will probably increase the demand of cars and possibly the exports from German auto industry. However, I'd say the US and Canadian Equity markets would be affected a bit more.
  • #18,944
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:27am Jan 18, 2016 2:27am
Quoting Islander
{quote} VSA tells us that strength appears in high volume down bars and that very high volumed down bars often hide hidden buying. Let's see how today closes - rembering that its a holiday in the USA...... PS Long 9539 on PB {image}
GM Captain Exactly my point earlier. Three longs so far, starting at 9515, and counting... 9700 for a start, I think, then we'll see.
  • #18,945
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:47am Jan 18, 2016 2:47am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Possibly not the same moves across different Indices, probably the Dax is least affected, if anything falling Oil/Gasoline/Petrol prices will probably increase the demand of cars and possibly the exports from German auto industry. However, I'd say the US and Canadian Equity markets would be affected a bit more.
Thank you! My question was rhetorical more than anything else. So thanks.

My humble understanding is that a strong economy may cause both stocks to go up and increase the demand for oil. So a rise in equities should, everything else being equal, push oil up and vice versa. On the other hand, stock prices being a measure of future corporate cash flows, oil appear on the cost side of the P&L statement, so falling oil should improve corporate profits if measured over the whole economy, and thus push stocks up.
  • #18,946
  • Jan 18, 2016 3:13am Jan 18, 2016 3:13am
Quoting medici
{quote} GM Captain Exactly my point earlier. Three longs so far, starting at 9515, and counting... 9700 for a start, I think, then we'll see.
Yes, early longs have already brought some nice profits to start our week - I'm currently flat, waiting to see which retrace level holds. The 76% area ~ 9540 is often visited...

Friday's Market Profile had its POC at 9500 and this morning's pre market low was at 9502 which leaves this technically as a Virgin POC

To the upside, I can see Friday's secondary POC area ~9750 which is close to Thursday's POC at 9763 being well within the current Average Daily Ranges - but absent the US Traders will there be sufficient activity??.....as always, TWT
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #18,947
  • Jan 18, 2016 3:23am Jan 18, 2016 3:23am
Quoting Islander
Friday's Market Profile had its POC at 9500 and this morning's pre market low was at 9502 which leaves this technically as a Virgin POC .
Good point... Sufficient volatility either way
  • #18,948
  • Edited 4:36am Jan 18, 2016 4:16am | Edited 4:36am
Quoting medici
{quote} Good point... Sufficient volatility either way
and there was after the bounce off the 50% retrace failed ~the 9600 level I sold and the fall went down to the 138 fib expansion at 9459 ......whilst the Dow actually held at its 50% retrace area ~15,970.

Looking at the 15m chart Dax is showing a clear inverse head and shoulders and has just completed a bullish harami and current ~today's developing POC level of 9543. A confirmed move above the S&R area ~the half number with Dow aove its S&R area ~16,035 would signal higher prices... back under its 1.0900 will help....

I've been buying the HLs since the BRN held....

PS: the suggested H&S target is also close to Thursday's POC mentioned earlier
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #18,949
  • Jan 18, 2016 4:22am Jan 18, 2016 4:22am
Quoting medici
{quote} Thank you! My question was rhetorical more than anything else. So thanks. My humble understanding is that a strong economy may cause both stocks to go up and increase the demand for oil. So a rise in equities should, everything else being equal, push oil up and vice versa. On the other hand, stock prices being a measure of future corporate cash flows, oil appear on the cost side of the P&L statement, so falling oil should improve corporate profits if measured over the whole economy, and thus push stocks up.
Yes, your logic serves you correct, the only "but", is if the Energy Sector starts to incur major losses, which causes job cuts, and corporate insolvencies in that sector, along with Bad losses to Financiers, and Investors. Loss of capital can take place across Investors and Banks.
  • #18,950
  • Jan 18, 2016 4:26am Jan 18, 2016 4:26am
Quoting Islander
{quote} and there was after the bounce off the 50% retrace failed ~the 9600 level I sold and the fall went down to the 138 fib expansion at 9459 ......whilst the Dow actually held at its 50% retrace area ~15,970. Looking at the 15m chart Dax is showing a clear inverse head and shoulders and has just completed a bullish harami and current ~today's developing POC level of 9543. A confirmed move above the S&R area ~the half number with Dow aove its S&R area ~16,035 would signal higher prices... back under its 1.0900 will help.... I've been buying...
Well done I stayed out of the shorts, took a couple of CT scalps, and then long again at 9464 from the HL. With no US participation, I''m now done for today. Have a good one
  • #18,951
  • Jan 18, 2016 4:36am Jan 18, 2016 4:36am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Yes, your logic serves you correct, the only "but", is if the Energy Sector starts to incur major losses, which causes job cuts, and corporate insolvencies in that sector, along with Bad losses to Financiers, and Investors. Loss of capital can take place across Investors and Banks.
Fine, but your "but" came with an, as yet, unrealised "if". The large oil companies have over recent months moved largely with their indices, and are doing better than the indices today, while the oil price is calmly consolidating around $30.
  • #18,952
  • Jan 18, 2016 4:41am Jan 18, 2016 4:41am
Quoting medici
{quote} Well done I stayed out of the shorts, took a couple of CT scalps, and then long again at 9464 from the HL. With no US participation, I''m now done for today. Have a good one
Thanks, after 150 pts up followed by 200 pts down plenty of green ones have been banked so I too am calling it a day....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #18,953
  • Jan 18, 2016 1:26pm Jan 18, 2016 1:26pm
DAX, Long @ 9'521 (3x)
  • #18,954
  • Jan 18, 2016 1:27pm Jan 18, 2016 1:27pm
Long @ 15'950 (2x)
  • #18,955
  • Jan 18, 2016 11:26pm Jan 18, 2016 11:26pm
Up and soon according to this guy
http://www.businessinsider.com/deuts...-target-2016-1
  • #18,956
  • Jan 18, 2016 11:27pm Jan 18, 2016 11:27pm
Quoting Forexcube
DAX, Long @ 9'521 (3x)
Those 3 look pretty good so far.
  • #18,957
  • Edited 1:31am Jan 19, 2016 1:18am | Edited 1:31am
I took an early trade on pre-trade hour once I started to see price action going higher and the next level of resistance on my charts was about 80pts away, so I aimed for 50pts and got it - 9678 to 9728.

Here are some key resistance levels:
9,939.70: R3
9,834.60: 1H - 200 SMA
9,799.70: R2
9,746.80: Daily - 7 SMA

Supports:
9,662.90: R1
9,645.70: 4H - 20 SMA
9,637.20: 1M - 200 SMA
9,616.50: 1H - 7 SMA
9,564.30: 4H - 7 SMA
9,562.10: 1H - 20 SMA
9,560.20: 5M - 200 SMA
9,523.50: DPP
9,386.70: S1
9,301.00: Fib 100%
  • #18,958
  • Jan 19, 2016 1:32am Jan 19, 2016 1:32am
Longs from yesterday did well. Well over 9700 now. Looks like that German dude was right.
  • #18,959
  • Jan 19, 2016 2:42am Jan 19, 2016 2:42am
The forecast for 2016 of the DAX from Larry Williams shows that we have reached the 1st date.

Sixer
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: LW-DAX 2016.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #18,960
  • Jan 19, 2016 3:05am Jan 19, 2016 3:05am
Quoting Sixer
The forecast for 2016 of the DAX from Larry Williams shows that we have reached the 1st date. Sixer {image}
Hey Sixer, that's a really interesting post... Can you re-post with the Y-axis showing the Points?
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