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  • #8,961
  • Edited 2:47pm Jan 17, 2016 2:36pm | Edited 2:47pm
Quoting Darkforce
Now it falls back within 1.46, in another blink of eyes. Sorry for spamming this thread, but this is kind of exciting. Watch this pair really taught me a lot over the past few months. The price action and the greedy and fear behind it is text book classic and not to be seen everyday in every pair Update: it retake 1.46 in just a few minutes. Is 1.46 becoming the new support now? {image} {image}


USDCAD gap up .... wow
  • #8,962
  • Jan 17, 2016 2:42pm Jan 17, 2016 2:42pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
USDCAD is starting to look like the Ruble Could do 1.60 no problem. If you think about it fundamentally, Canada never should have been anywhere near parity with US Hard to believe at one time CAD was worth more than USD
Good point. I attached a chart to underline it. Seems this trend upwards is unstoppable. Almost getting out of hand you might say ..

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCADMonthly.png Size: 79 KB
The Essentials of Trading: Emotions, Risk Mgt, Price.
  • #8,963
  • Edited 4:28pm Jan 17, 2016 4:02pm | Edited 4:28pm
well thats sweet, gap up just moved me to +100 pips on this trade, now to plan my exit,

Edit, Closed position @ 1.45912, i see lots going short on the pair, while i believe there are some pips to be made on closing the gap im going to wait until another push higher has been established
Trade like a sniper not a machine gun
  • #8,964
  • Jan 17, 2016 4:38pm Jan 17, 2016 4:38pm
its usual max for current high low 800 - 900 points in MN1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD.jpg Size: 149 KB


http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...05#post8627705
  • #8,965
  • Jan 17, 2016 5:07pm Jan 17, 2016 5:07pm
Now there is a big war, oil 28.68, and the Canadian dollar does not respond with oil
The supreme art of war is to subdue the enemy without fighting.
  • #8,966
  • Jan 17, 2016 9:02pm Jan 17, 2016 9:02pm
Quoting albarbary
Now there is a big war, oil 28.68, and the Canadian dollar does not respond with oil
It responds almost pip for pip??
  • #8,967
  • Jan 18, 2016 4:02am Jan 18, 2016 4:02am
SHS on 1 h
  • #8,968
  • Jan 18, 2016 4:05am Jan 18, 2016 4:05am
I'm opening long again, target - 1.4580.
  • #8,969
  • Jan 18, 2016 4:47am Jan 18, 2016 4:47am
shs
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: USDCAD_1.gif Size: 176 KB
  • #8,970
  • Jan 18, 2016 4:50am Jan 18, 2016 4:50am
Quoting Dano12
SHS on 1 h
hmm i think so, and it seem atm. AU H1 forming inverted H&S
  • #8,971
  • Jan 18, 2016 5:21am Jan 18, 2016 5:21am
Quoting andexQ
{quote} hmm i think so, and it seem atm. AU H1 forming inverted H&S
we'll see how the US will come to trade on oil, and at night the data from China
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: dane.PNG Size: 8 KB
  • #8,972
  • Jan 18, 2016 6:01am Jan 18, 2016 6:01am
change soon.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: hnxPy2tO.png Size: 42 KB
  • #8,973
  • Jan 18, 2016 8:13am Jan 18, 2016 8:13am
Here we go $-0.5/bbl oil comes:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...s-than-nothing

Bottom of oil? Maybe it is coming.
  • #8,974
  • Jan 18, 2016 8:15am Jan 18, 2016 8:15am
Quoting Dano12
shs {image}
Very clear pattern, but my faith in technical of this pair, especially anything below D1 TF is not very strong.

Hope to see a H&S in a larger TF to bring this monster down, properly!
  • #8,975
  • Jan 18, 2016 8:19am Jan 18, 2016 8:19am
what a surprise, moved my stop loss to just above break even before an immediate 20 pip jump up, what a surprise, story of my life these last two weeks ​
  • #8,976
  • Jan 18, 2016 8:23am Jan 18, 2016 8:23am
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Very clear pattern, but my faith in technical of this pair, especially anything below D1 TF is not very strong. Hope to see a H&S in a larger TF to bring this monster down, properly!
Yeah I agree with this, I think we've got to be looking at the longer time frames on this thing to keep any perspective. I've got live shorts on this right now but they're super tiny allocations. I plan on being in this for months. Basically focused on weekly and monthly TF's right now. I would think in the next 8 to twelve weeks we would see some kind of technical hiccup (back to the mean) if we get any fundamental support or speculation that oil will strengthen or The Fed hints it won't actually raise rates 4 times this year... something like that could make current level an overshoot and give a few weeks of reprieve. Hey, a guy can dream. - JP
When you hit 50, coffee becomes part of a proper modeling pipeline.
  • #8,977
  • Jan 18, 2016 1:08pm Jan 18, 2016 1:08pm
Let's get some opinions on what will happen if Canada's overnight rate gets cut in half on Wednesday
Trade like a sniper not a machine gun
  • #8,978
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:37pm Jan 18, 2016 2:37pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Very clear pattern, but my faith in technical of this pair, especially anything below D1 TF is not very strong. Hope to see a H&S in a larger TF to bring this monster down, properly!
small abc
  • #8,979
  • Jan 18, 2016 3:23pm Jan 18, 2016 3:23pm
Quoting Dano12
{quote} small abc
Could be, all eyes on 20th Jan BOC meeting now.

I come across this:
http://news.forexlive.com/!/how-to-t...-baml-20160118

Take away from the article is that the market is pricing a 50% cut in Jan meeting and almost 100% cut in Mar meeting, in contrast to just 6% Jan cut back in Dec.

This means shorts have piled into CAD shorts anticipating BOC cuts.

I can understand why people think BOC will cut, and at 0.5% when some other CB have negative rate, there is indeed space to cut for BOC, but do they really need to do it this time?

Also, notice the spike from 1.4516 to 1.4582 when the PM said he would stick to fiscal discipling, this put pressure on BOC to carry on the economy, the PA shows what market's mind is at right now.
  • #8,980
  • Jan 18, 2016 3:36pm Jan 18, 2016 3:36pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} Could be, all eyes on 20th Jan BOC meeting now. I come across this: http://news.forexlive.com/!/how-to-t...-baml-20160118 Take away from the article is that the market is pricing a 50% cut in Jan meeting and almost 100% cut in Mar meeting, in contrast to just 6% Jan cut back in Dec. This means shorts have piled into CAD shorts anticipating BOC cuts. I can understand why people think BOC will cut, and at 0.5% when some other CB have negative rate, there is indeed space to cut for BOC, but do they really need...
Maybe BOC will not cut, probably would have if the fed wouldn't have raised rates, also the russians were raising rates not cutting when low crude prices were crushing their currency.But i'm subjective here have open shorts on UCAD
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