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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #18,921
  • Jan 15, 2016 12:19pm Jan 15, 2016 12:19pm
Long dax @9465.sl 9436
  • #18,922
  • Jan 15, 2016 12:56pm Jan 15, 2016 12:56pm
reneter @9433 L
  • #18,923
  • Jan 15, 2016 1:04pm Jan 15, 2016 1:04pm
long dax sl 50
  • #18,924
  • Jan 15, 2016 1:14pm Jan 15, 2016 1:14pm
Quoting deltaone
kaum kotzt sich der markt mal richtig aus, kommt verbalerotik von onkel willy
Google Translate is having a tough time with that one
Indentify > Plan > Accept > Execute
  • #18,925
  • Edited 6:26am Jan 16, 2016 6:07am | Edited 6:26am
there are times pa/+ any tech is crushed ,big money is short indices ,close as is looks strong
ideally bellow 300 is good enough to carry that thought further that its a sell and hold chart for some time ,
even a lower wick is acceptable for bears here imo
id have to see price over 11 400 to change my mind
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 30 (DFB).png Size: 24 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 30 d1 (DFB).png Size: 40 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #18,926
  • Jan 16, 2016 6:51am Jan 16, 2016 6:51am
Quoting Bones
there are times pa/+ any tech is crushed ,big money is short indices ,close as is looks strong ideally bellow 300 is good enough to carry that thought further that its a sell and hold chart for some time , even a lower wick is acceptable for bears here imo id have to see price over 11 400 to change my mind {image} {image}
Excellent analysis Thank you. I'd just like to add an observation as to the timing of things, and take note of a remarkable confluence.

Since mid-November it's been two weeks up, two weeks down, etc, etc. We're now at the bottom of the January channel, and if the bi-weekly patterns continues with a couple of weeks of (likely very volatile) recovery, then the bottom of the November buying coincides with the long-term upper trend-line in exactly two weeks time!

Make of that what you will. This bi-weekly pattern will have to end at some point. Will it be now or in two weeks?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #18,927
  • Jan 16, 2016 8:21am Jan 16, 2016 8:21am
Attached are the Monthly and weekly Dax. Firstly, we are just above a major support level in the weekly 200ema/76.4%, the fib anchored from the October 2014 low. Below is the purple dotted weekly 200sma. Either of these can provide strong support and take the market back up towards 11,000.

Looking at the monthly chart to see where support may come in if the selling continues through this weekly support, and the fib anchored from the September 2011 low gives a 61.8% at 7,840. As you can see, the white trend line comes through just below this level, as does the orange dotted 100sma. If we get there, whether it is this time round, or later on this year, this is going to be another major support level to watch. Beneath it is really the final support level that traders would be aiming for were this downturn become stock market Armageddon. It is the 76.4% coming in just above the 200ema which currently lies at 6,630, but of course, that is some way away so not something that concerns us currently.

Next week should, provide the answer to whether we break the support currently just beneath the current Dax level, or whether the big money wants to take it back up for a while.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 30 (DFB).png Size: 44 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: weekly dax.png Size: 50 KB
  • #18,928
  • Edited 10:17pm Jan 16, 2016 9:03am | Edited 10:17pm
I too have noticed this two week pattern of the market going up and followed by two weeks of the market going down and vice versa, and come Monday, based on this pattern, it is expected that the markets will start to lift.

I also noticed that the 180 day count from the 21 July 2015 interim high is on the 18/19th of January 2016, and this could be a potential reversal date.

Technically speaking, it looks like the market still needs to go lower IMO, but having said that there should be plenty of volatility to trade either ways to make money.

An additional fundamental aspect that may cause the markets to go lower next week is that Iran Sanctions are expected to be lifted during the week, and given Iran's millions of barrels of Oil available in storage, the Oil should flow and cause its price to go further down; and we all know that this will effect the large Energy sector on US Equities; and given their positive correlation with other Indices, it should drag the Dax further down.

Just a few ideas.
  • #18,929
  • Jan 17, 2016 4:51am Jan 17, 2016 4:51am
Quoting cat
Attached are the Monthly and weekly Dax. Firstly, we are just above a major support level in the weekly 200ema/76.4%, the fib anchored from the October 2014 low. Below is the purple dotted weekly 200sma. Either of these can provide strong support and take the market back up towards 11,000. Looking at the monthly chart to see where support may come in if the selling continues through this weekly support, and the fib anchored from the September 2011 low gives a 61.8% at 7,840. As you can see, the white trend line comes through just below this level,...
Last time QE kicked in around 9400 and lifted it way past 10,000. Question is whether or not QE kicks back in again this time around...
  • #18,930
  • Jan 17, 2016 4:53am Jan 17, 2016 4:53am
Quoting PariCovek
I too have noticed this two week pattern of the market going up and followed by two weeks of the market going down and vice versa, and come Monday, based on this pattern, it is expected that the markets will start to lift. I also noticed that the 180 day count from the 21 July 2015 interim high is on the 18/19th of January 2016, and this could be a potential reversal date. Technically speaking, it looks like the market still needs to go lower IMO, but having said that there should be plenty of volatility to trade either ways to make money. An additional...
The Iranians probably pumped a shit load out prior to sanctions ready to ship once sanctions expire. Regret forgetting about exact date sanctions expired to have a larger short position on oil last two weeks. Best short opportunity ever on oil last 2 months. Something to keep in mind though was how Silver went from $50 down to $14
  • #18,931
  • Edited 10:06am Jan 17, 2016 8:18am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Last time QE kicked in around 9400 and lifted it way past 10,000. Question is whether or not QE kicks back in again this time around...
I'm curious about this comment, as I'm not sure this is correct. Do you have any details on this?

As far as I am aware the ECB's asset purchasing programme is to inject liquidity into the European Financial system through the purchase of various Debt Instruments and in short, the summary is on this link:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/mopo/imple.../index.en.html

The ECB have a mandate for "Monthly purchases in public and private sector securities that amount to 60 billion", this amount hasn't changed or increased as a result of sudden drops in the Equities markets, and these "Securities" are essentially defined on the above link as Debt Instruments issued by Central Govts and Agencies within the Eurozone, along with various Asset Backed Securities (Securitisations) issued by Eurozone Banks.

I don't think the ECB's asset purchase programme has increased when Equities have dropped significantly on certain occasions since the QE programme commenced.

I understand that by the ECB injecting Liquidity into the Financial System, that this indirectly forces Private Funds, Investment Banks and High Net Worth Individuals to potentially switch to Riskier Assets like Equities/Property as there is less available Bonds/Debt Instruments on the market, but reading the above link I do not believe that the ECB QE is purchasing Equities in general (whether in Eurozone or not).

  • #18,932
  • Edited 10:32am Jan 17, 2016 9:13am | Edited 10:32am
totally agree this pattern is evident in the chart ,only daily failure bothers me a lot to say the weekly is inverted hammer ,I like bol as sign of over sold and momentum and as Cat s chart its on it ,mostly this can work sometimes forget anything you know ,lol
failure can be a very powerful pattern ,

thanks M



Quoting medici
{quote} Excellent analysis Thank you. I'd just like to add an observation as to the timing of things, and take note of a remarkable confluence. Since mid-November it's been two weeks up, two weeks down, etc, etc. We're now at the bottom of the January channel, and if the bi-weekly patterns continues with a couple of weeks of (likely very volatile) recovery, then the bottom of the November buying coincides with the long-term upper trend-line in exactly two weeks time! Make of that what you will. This bi-weekly pattern will have to end at some...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Germany 30 w1 (DFB).png Size: 31 KB
On-site guru & also FF member's' psychiatrist, when not drinking tea
  • #18,933
  • Jan 17, 2016 9:29am Jan 17, 2016 9:29am
Saudi stocks are a bloodbath today. Probably due to further oil losses coming up this week. http://www.tadawul.com.sa/wps/portal/pda
  • #18,934
  • Jan 17, 2016 10:23am Jan 17, 2016 10:23am
Quoting PariCovek
I too have noticed this two week pattern of the market going up and followed by two weeks of the market going down and vice versa, and come Monday, based on this pattern, it is expected that the markets will start to lift. I also noticed that the 180 day count from the 21 July 2015 interim high is on the 18/19th of January 2016, and this could be a potential reversal date. Technically speaking, it looks like the market still needs to go lower IMO, but having said that there should be plenty of volatility to trade either ways to make money. An additional...
Yep, confirmed... More Oil Supply with Iran Sanctions lifted, expect Oil price to drop early this week, and Equities to drop further.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/...00-barrels-day
  • #18,935
  • Edited Jan 18, 2016 1:38am Jan 17, 2016 12:51pm | Edited Jan 18, 2016 1:38am
Quoting Bones
totally agree this pattern is evident in the chart ,only daily failure bothers me a lot to say the weekly is inverted hammer ,I like bol as sign of over sold and momentum and as Cat s chart its on it ,mostly this can work sometimes forget anything you know ,lol failure can be a very powerful pattern , thanks M {quote} {image}
Thanks Bones, good discussion I'd like to chip in another observation in favour of a recovery.

Friday saw almost double the volume compared to most days this year - but with waning momentum. And almost two thirds of Friday's volume came in a range around 9500 - during US trading hours. The US Friday session is usually low volume in DAX.

So a lot of deviations from the usual - all pointing to a reversal.

The chart is 5000 ticks with a 100SMA/6ATR channel.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Screen Shot 2016-01-17 at 18.46.53.png Size: 142 KB
  • #18,936
  • Jan 17, 2016 4:17pm Jan 17, 2016 4:17pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Yep, confirmed... More Oil Supply with Iran Sanctions lifted, expect Oil price to drop early this week, and Equities to drop further.
Do you think the lifting of the embargo came as a surprise to oil traders? Might not the recent price drop have been in anticipation of it?
  • #18,937
  • Edited 10:57pm Jan 17, 2016 9:39pm | Edited 10:57pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Do you think the lifting of the embargo came as a surprise to oil traders? Might not the recent price drop have been in anticipation of it?
You may be possibly right, Oil price seems to be hovering around USD30/bbl again today. If there is one thing to be mindful, allow a couple of days for the market to digest this information, I learnt the hard way by taking a big loss the day after the VW scandal was announced when I thought the market had factored the matter in.
  • #18,938
  • Jan 18, 2016 1:35am Jan 18, 2016 1:35am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} You may be possibly right, Oil price seems to be hovering around USD30/bbl again today. If there is one thing to be mindful, allow a couple of days for the market to digest this information, I learnt the hard way by taking a big loss the day after the VW scandal was announced when I thought the market had factored the matter in.
Oh, absolutely. Markets and situations are different. The oil market tends to be very good at discounting the future, not least because of the impact of future oil prices on the whole economy.

Which brings the next question: Do rising/falling oil prices cause the same moves in equities, or is something else going on?
  • #18,939
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:04am Jan 18, 2016 2:04am
Quoting medici
{quote} Oh, absolutely. Markets and situations are different. The oil market tends to be very good at discounting the future, not least because of the impact of future oil prices on the whole economy. Which brings the next question: Do rising/falling oil prices cause the same moves in equities, or is something else going on?
GM. Whilst I do not know anything about the correlation of the price of oil vs moves in the indices, there is something going on as we can see by firstly the general increase in the daily volumes over the past severn trading days, especially last Friday which had the second highest volume since last August.

Hidden Gap's indicator has this as a climax bar - almost a full marubozo of ~420 points and making this wave C > than wave A.

VSA tells us that strength appears in high volume down bars and that very high volumed down bars often hide hidden buying. Let's see how today closes - rembering that its a holiday in the USA......

PS Long 9539 on PB
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: jan18 dax dly.png Size: 48 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #18,940
  • Jan 18, 2016 2:11am Jan 18, 2016 2:11am
Quoting Forexcube
Swinging Trade Long @ 15'870 (2x), Target @ 16'240 US30USD, H4, 2016 January 15 {image}
#18'918

Delete the target @ 16'240
Exit # 16'040, +170 (x2 = 340)
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