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News trading discussion - continuation

  • #2,001
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:38am Jan 8, 2016 5:38am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,002
  • Jan 8, 2016 9:51am Jan 8, 2016 9:51am
Great weekend to everyone
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,003
  • Jan 9, 2016 11:03am Jan 9, 2016 11:03am
Monday
11:00
01/11/16
NO The core consumer price index
(NO Core CPI), Norway, EURNOK
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,004
  • Jan 11, 2016 2:11am Jan 11, 2016 2:11am
Tuesday
11:30
01/12/16
GB Industrial Production
(GB Industrial Production), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 20.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,005
  • Jan 11, 2016 11:02am Jan 11, 2016 11:02am
Quoting vvFish
{quote} I would like to learn even someone else's opinion
i recommend you to read forex blog and articls about forex strategies
  • #2,006
  • Jan 12, 2016 1:04am Jan 12, 2016 1:04am
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Good Friday's Nonfarm whether good or guide to the top in 2016.


On Friday, January 8, the markets got a dose of new and fresh endorphins against the dollar instead of the projected growth in the 200K Non-Farm Payrolls rose by 292K, significantly better than expected, but is it really positive?

USA

Despite the increase in the number, employed during the previous month the size of 292K and a controversial report came from the conflict data. So, instead of the expected 0.2% increase wages have not gained anything in the reporting period (in fact 0% growth), against the background of falling oil and dual stop tap China's stock market makes to remember the state of inflation, which in the past three years does not can achieve the purpose of the Federal Reserve.
US Change in NonFarm Payrolls 292 (290)
US Unemployment Rate 5% (5%)
US Average Hourly Earnings 0% (0.2%)
Markets handled in 2016, is looking for new landmarks, and it seems that the expectation of + 1% in the interest rate FOMC to the end of the year is not very much and it suits reluctantly thought about a strong dollar, which has put himself in a vicious circle: USD strong negative impact on the recovery of inflation also negatively as oil prices. Again, the salary, which should accelerate the growth of prices, have no incentive to grow at a strong dollar. China has been ignored by the Fed as a destabilizing factor for the US economy in 2015, thanks to what happened in December interest rate increase, but now, Celestial, can also bring down the price of oil (experts talk of the range of $ 20-30 per barrel). The low price of oil - low inflation, weak inflation - low probability of increasing interest rates.

However, we hear positive remarks from the Fed in the direction of "a gradual increase in the interest rate," but it is not even the first "bells".

Anything substantial on the expectations will be more clearly established after the January FOMC meeting the Fed, which will take the number 27. At the moment, the markets are in a 50% probability expectations of US interest rates in March 2016.

Also on 29 January, we will be able to see how the last few months the positive impact of growth on the Non-Farm real GDP growth, quarterly data is being prepared for publication on January 29.

And others

Australia - the improvement of the labor market can give the RBA more time to make a decision on interest rates in spite of the "rapid start of 2016" from China, which is already twice stopped trading on the local stock market. Currently the Australian interest rate remains at 2%, fresh employment report will present this Thursday. In terms of the formation of expectations is important to the consumer price index, to be released January 27, the report will be provided on a quarterly basis. Once we are fully prepared for February 2 this day will be held this year's first meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

For the UK, perhaps the closest major issue will be "good or spent holidays McCafferty," in fact, he only voted for a rate hike. And it was only this factor may excite quotes this Thursday at the time of publication the decision of the Bank after its meeting. Pound remains restless for his "zero" inflation, and its fresh data will be published next week, on 19 January.

The euro is up and lift the lids as soon as its by 21 January at a press conference, Mario Draghi, has traditionally been organized after the ECB meeting. The rest of the Euro may occur spontaneously.

New Zealand received a portion of the foundation January 19 at the time of publication of the quarterly inflation report, then, by the end of the month (January 27), the RBNZ will take a decision on interest rates.

Total closest turning points could be: the publication of labor market data in Australia and the Bank of England meeting on Thursday. Starting next week, the start of "season" the publication of quarterly reports, so that in spite of the "already" volatility against the backdrop of China's markets will definitely breathe in the near future.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,007
  • Jan 12, 2016 1:35am Jan 12, 2016 1:35am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,008
  • Edited Jan 13, 2016 1:05am Jan 12, 2016 1:41am | Edited Jan 13, 2016 1:05am
Wednesday
13/1/2016
At 10:30 am EDT the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.
I don't have statistics at the moment.


Read this article to get some statistics:
***********************************************************************
Analysts Forecast 2.1M-Barrel Rise in Crude Stocks
Published: Jan 12, 2016

By Nicole Friedman


NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to increase in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from eight analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have risen by 2.1 million barrels, on average, in the week ended Jan. 8.

Seven analysts expect stockpiles to rise, while one expects a fall. Forecasts range from a rise of 4.8 million barrels to a drop of 1.5 million barrels.

The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. EST Wednesday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 1.9 million barrels, according to analysts. Six analysts expect an increase, with two expecting a decline. Estimates range from a rise of 4 million barrels to a drop of 1.5 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels. Six analysts expect a gain, while another two see a fall. Forecasts range from a rise of 2.5 million barrels to a drop of 1.2 million barrels.

Refinery use is seen falling 1.0 percentage point to 91.5% of capacity, based on EIA data. Seven analysts expect a decline, while one didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a drop of 0.4 point to a fall of 2.1 points.
*********************************************************************
Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,009
  • Jan 13, 2016 9:38am Jan 13, 2016 9:38am
Thursday
2:30
14.01.16
AU number of employed
(AU Employment Change), Australia, AUDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 45.00 points in the first minute after the release.
35% probability trades.

Let us not forget that Australia is serious enough related exports to China, the Chinese stock market continues to fall against this backdrop that the RBA is likely to come under pressure in the issue of regulating interest rates.
RBA recent months took waiting position, balancing the desire to ease monetary policy and the overheated real estate market demand. The current situation can also replay the situation on the board, if we see some negative bells from the Australian statistics, probably the situation is replayed and the RBA will declare more serious intentions to regulate rates.
RBA will hold a meeting on February 2. Up to this point in the statistics of two key factors: the publication of the labor market (for now) and the quarterly consumer price index (end of month).
It would seem that in such a situation, our hands would reduce the number of employed in the growth of this report, but we will not hurry - even in such a situation, the technical publication may not go smoothly.
Firstly - a traditional Australian delay the publication of data which does not allow to use the system to prevent conflict. A conflict can be: the publication of the interest rate, the number of employed and the ratio of manpower resources (3 indicators can go far in unison).
Second, despite the pressure to AUD we are already seeing a fresh report on the analysis and the press for the number of vacancies, which increased by 3.5% from the previous 2.7% and a maximum 3 year period - an allusion to the probability of a positive scenario for Employment Change.
Not so simple with this report at this time, once again draw attention to the presence of the Australian delay


Thursday
10:30
14.01.16
SE Consumer Price Index
(SE CPI), Sweden, EURSEK
Average reaction when the trigger 50.00 points in the first minute after the release.
probability trades.

Thursday
14:00
14.01.16
GB The official rate of asthma
(GB Official Bank Rate), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 80.00 points in the first minute after the release.
30% probability trades.

First of all we are interested in the voting structure of the interest rate, we will use it for trade, along with the value of the interest rate. Official forecasts say the combination of: 1-0-8, with 1 voting "for" raising (McCafferty) 0 vote for "drop in" and to refrain from 8 changes.
This week, we watched the weak UK industrial production growth, low inflation hear about the EU, seeing a decline in oil prices to historic lows, are experiencing a weakening of China - all this indicates the need for a global soft monetary policy, including England. Recall that in 2015, the Bank of England at the beginning did not recognize the influence of the Chinese factor in the dynamics of the British economy, but at the end of 2015 - still acknowledged and passed from calls to tighten monetary policy to neutrality. In this perspective, McCafferty is a bit ridiculous. On the other hand, it can survive in this state for some time.
Mark Carney, speaking on Tuesday, said that the UK's economic growth remains strong. Current consumer price index was 0.1% in annual terms (which does not signal a tightening of monetary policy).
Also at this time the volatility in the market may cause the parallel publication of minutes of meetings of the BA

Thursday
17:30
14.01.16
US Natural Gas Reserves
(US Natural Gas Storage), the United States, #NG
Average reaction when the trigger 60.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,010
  • Jan 14, 2016 12:36am Jan 14, 2016 12:36am
USDSEK
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,011
  • Jan 14, 2016 7:36am Jan 14, 2016 7:36am
Friday
15:30
01/15/16
The core US retail sales
(US Core Retail Sales), the United States, USDJPY
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
25% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,012
  • Edited 1:22am Jan 15, 2016 1:03am | Edited 1:22am
DAX Scaping.
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  • #2,013
  • Jan 15, 2016 1:20am Jan 15, 2016 1:20am
[цитата = Топпо QQQ; 8691892]. DAX Scaping за графика vvFish в {} изображения [/ цитата]

Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,014
  • Jan 15, 2016 5:34am Jan 15, 2016 5:34am
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,015
  • Jan 15, 2016 10:52am Jan 15, 2016 10:52am
Great weekend to everyone
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,016
  • Jan 15, 2016 11:05pm Jan 15, 2016 11:05pm
I will make trades after the central bank rate meeting , or the yellun / draghi speech , which also is different from the market consensus.
I believe it will leave a trend that i can follow
  • #2,017
  • Jan 16, 2016 11:14pm Jan 16, 2016 11:14pm
Tuesday
11:30
01/19/16
GB CPI GOOD
(GB CPI), England, GBPUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
15% probability trades.

Tuesday
23:45
01/19/16
NZ Consumer Price Index HOT!
(NZ CPI), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release.
50% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,018
  • Jan 19, 2016 11:21am Jan 19, 2016 11:21am
Quoting vvFish
Tuesday 11:30 01/19/16 GB CPI GOOD (GB CPI), England, GBPUSD Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release. 15% probability trades. Tuesday 23:45 01/19/16 NZ Consumer Price Index HOT! (NZ CPI), New Zealand, NZDUSD Average reaction when the trigger 30.00 points in the first minute after the release. 50% probability trades.
____________________________________________________
Thoughts on "smart traders"

Markets are not yet count on the RBNZ interest rate change, but by and large it does not mean that the interest rate will be. We know not one story when it happened exactly the opposite.

And we have two factors that can adjust expectations: milk and "neighbor" China.

The negative results of the dairy auction
We are already seeing a pullback, but it is not systematic
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In addition, today the updated data will be published "milk" before the date of publication of the quarterly report on inflation. Always relevant publications you can watch on globaldairytrade.info.
China
You have already heard about the slow pace of the Chinese industry, besides Tuesday morning brought us new statistics in the form of China's GDP. The media have already dubbed these data are "weak": 6.8% against expectations of 6.9%. Since 2009, a historic low.

Recently, also catches the eye of the analyst and electricity consumption in the country - it fell on a small part of the interest, but for the first time in 16 years.

USA
If at the beginning of the year, we have been strictly "4 steps to increase" interest rates at the moment are already talking about variations of "3-4". The slowdown in the US rate increase will allow the RBNZ to lower his.

The one to our attention quarterly and annual data New Zealand inflation recall that the Central Bank's target level for inflation is set in the range of 2-3%. Upon the expected publication of the annual value of 0.3%.

Interestingly, the forecast quarterly value may be negative growth -0.2% - no fancy for this indicator, but the fact aggravating the overall desired level, and again raises the question reduction of the interest rate under such circumstances.

Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,019
  • Jan 19, 2016 1:51pm Jan 19, 2016 1:51pm
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Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
  • #2,020
  • Jan 19, 2016 1:57pm Jan 19, 2016 1:57pm
Quoting vvFish
{image}{image}
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