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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,521
  • Jan 11, 2016 10:22am Jan 11, 2016 10:22am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Oil on the brink again and just crashed the equity bounce
ufff....another panicky day in OIL. Today is all about OIL. Equities barely held a decent attack 1911.xx on the opening range, Euro also held 1.086x. Finally GOLD which is a good benchmark for risk right now also held key 1080.xx intraday and a break above 1100.xx this month will, for the first time in over a year, give bulls a realistic chance to start forming a solid bottom ....

We are going to hold on air until Inventories this week. Technically the lows are gone (we are trading air at these levels) since last week so only an externality can "avoid the unavoidable". Markets are setting for the final exhaustion panic leg in OIL since last week and pretty much today we have the extension maps very clean in all major markets (S&P 1888x, GOLD 1160.xx, Euro 1.108x, among the majors) ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,522
  • Jan 11, 2016 10:23am Jan 11, 2016 10:23am
Quoting MissPips
{quote} Only one small problem. In your age group, because of the 1 child policy implemented 30 years ago, there's a shortage of women in relation to men.
Yes, but there is only one white man for every 100 Chinese women in China
  • #138,523
  • Jan 11, 2016 10:44am Jan 11, 2016 10:44am
Quoting hathor
{quote} Yesterday's close brought the Daily buy signal, so overall: Monthly - Buy at 1.07314 [March.2015] Weekly - Buy at 1.05919 [Nov.22.2015] Daily - Buy at 1.07797 [Jan.06.2015] H4, H1 - Sell -> waiting for buy signal (interesting fact: Daily candle couldn't close under Monthly signal's level) Careful, it's not always means it will go up in straight line. A new low is also possible, but it has it advantages: The lower I can buy, the better. The plan is the usual: from now on I change to smaller time frames and I will buy every dip. Good...
Monthly - Buy at 1.07314 [March.2015]
Weekly - Buy at 1.05919 [Nov.22.2015]
Daily - Buy at 1.07797 [Jan.06.2015]
The plan is still the usual.
Good luck to you all!

Heard it and it keeps going on my mind...maybe if I share it than it will let me go :
Inserted Video
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,524
  • Edited 11:02am Jan 11, 2016 10:50am | Edited 11:02am
Quoting infinitus
{quote} the topic is complex. There are studies, that showed, that the saving rate depends significantly on the sex. Male singles and family with male babies save significantly more than female singles and families with female babies. Right now we have in China on every 100 female babies around 120 male babies. Traditionally the Chinese prefer male babies. So the male persons are in high competition when it comes to marriage. Thus the higher saving rates. So you also have to solve this problem. Another...
Exactly (and alluded to in my above post.) Females consume more. (I'm willing to bet that's almost a universal characteristic unless we are talking about pure subsistence societies. When I lived on kibbutz, which strove heroically to make everything equal for everyone, so that the manager of the factory made the same as the guy serving breakfast in the dining hall, women got more money allocated to their personal spending budgets than men did. Why? Because otherwise, the women would get their husbands, who somehow never manged to spend all the money allocated to their personal budgets, to use their (the men's) money to buy them (the wives) clothes and other stuff. And since this was not fair to the single women, all the women were allocated 20% more than the men were for clothes, shoes, personal hygiene, etc, even though in all other aspects of the kibbutz no form of discrimination was allowed. ) So now that there can be two kids there will be more girl babies (because when there could be only one the girls were aborted in favor of sons). And that in itself will raise consumption because girls, on average, are higher maintenance than boys.

Partly, but not entirely. Thriftiness and acting responsibly toward the future are simply part of traditional Chinese values and have been for thousands of years. I don't believe that the Chinese Communists managed to completely eradicate this, any more than the Communists in Europe managed to completely eradicate Jewish values among the Jewish population in Russia or Catholic values among the Polish population in Poland. And here's the thing: the traditional solution for bad times, retirement, health problems (especially in the absence of strong social welfare programs - which happens to be the case in China - is having kids. The government can't tax, confiscate or inflate them away, and, if you have a girl, can't (in most countries) draft her and send her off to get killed in a war. So that's why I'm willing to bet that many Chinese will be willing to exchange some of that saving for the future for a different (and traditionally reliable) form of insurance for the future.
  • #138,525
  • Jan 11, 2016 11:09am Jan 11, 2016 11:09am
Quoting sisse
{quote} ufff....another panicky day in OIL. Today is all about OIL. Equities barely held a decent attack 1911.xx on the opening range, Euro also held 1.086x. Finally GOLD which is a good benchmark for risk right now also held key 1080.xx intraday and a break above 1100.xx this month will, for the first time in over a year, give bulls a realistic chance to start forming a solid bottom .... We are going to hold on air until Inventories this week. Technically the lows are gone (we are trading air at these levels) since last week so only an externality...
Trading at or just off strong levels on Euro and American equity indices with the possibility of quick breaches if things turn out worse than I suspect via China or through your oil exhaustion move. On my part, expecting measured volatility from Asia now and a grinding halt/hold on the panic or at least no further escalation on that front. That could ease oil in turn, temporarily. Agree about keeping an eye out for any externalities and they become more and more inevitable the lower we go.

Key levels already tested with the rough overnight session on my German equities chart so it would need to be something serious and explosive to break the lows on the oil/risk side in my book and open 1.108x. Let's see how it goes.
  • #138,526
  • Jan 11, 2016 12:37pm Jan 11, 2016 12:37pm
...the massacre in Oil continues ... -5.80% !!! and counting. Eyes again on the closing range for a new clean sweep. Absolutely nobody wants to buy OIL at these levels...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,527
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:16pm Jan 11, 2016 1:16pm
From a mere TA, I can see OIL getting support around the 24.XX handle. However, I think sisse said something around the $28.xx if I remember correctly. I would not want to be a BUYER until then. I don't know all the FA with OIL so I am speculating from TA side.

Gold is testing its support [email protected] as EU ranges between .0888 and .0876
  • #138,528
  • Jan 11, 2016 2:28pm Jan 11, 2016 2:28pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ...just a shout here!!!
This is a shout @Gator !!! Credit where is due. He was the first to spotted it nearly a year ago and it has provided plenty of juice ....

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/AU...ew-in-AUD-JPY/

Never leave a conversation open .... An odd update for those (if anyone else except Gator) still following the long term swing in AJ. Not holding anything since I cleared all back in Oct but for the record: First Main target hit and confirmed.

--> Changing AJ Long term outlook from Strong sell to Soft SELL
--> Changing Mid Term Outlook from Sell to NEUTRAL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,529
  • Jan 11, 2016 3:36pm Jan 11, 2016 3:36pm
expecting reaction $31.54 in oil then $25.34
  • #138,530
  • Jan 11, 2016 4:05pm Jan 11, 2016 4:05pm
...and we rolled. Oil collapse continued on the close. Equities held. Euro with a slightly bullish daily close and no surprise sitting on key 1.086x as widely expected. Fill or kill for the rest of the week and no more room for anything else.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,531
  • Jan 12, 2016 2:56am Jan 12, 2016 2:56am
Quoting ClinicalEx
Looks like the final bit of business from 1.1033 via the rate hike. Testing 1.0867 after the lower lows now after the former was initially resolved closer to the highs. Test of major support levels gave them that excuse I suppose. Either way, DAX knocking on the crucial 9780 which may well put an end the equity sell-off on this side- intraday overshoots aside.
It easily held the last couple of tests, the last one after a static China session last night as suspected. Unfortunately not much follow through and reward on the Euro side as we're constrained by 86,87. Not an easy environment either way. You want to put on these risk trades selling Yen/Euro vs the Dollar but with the relentless oil move it can quickly unravel and it's obviously over weighing the equity impact on the pair. Just want a quick, clean end to that move as it's absolutely pulling every string at the moment and I can't/don't actively trade it.

Still the two options to play it on currencies. The CAD trade which feels hopelessly late but just keeps flowing or trying to call a conservative "bottom" via an E/U short or U/J long.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #138,532
  • Edited 4:49am Jan 12, 2016 3:59am | Edited 4:49am
Quoting ClinicalEx
{quote} It easily held the last couple of tests, the last one after a static China session last night as suspected. Unfortunately not much follow through and reward on the Euro side as we're constrained by 86,87. Not an easy environment either way. You want to put on these risk trades selling Yen/Euro vs the Dollar but with the relentless oil move it can quickly unravel and it's obviously over weighing the equity impact on the pair. Just want a quick, clean end to that move as it's absolutely pulling every string at the moment and I can't/don't...
As per the chart: It would be nice if DAX moved back into the 9650-9700 territory. It may happen if the oil continues in this exhaustion leg (very probable - is gonna keep E/U levitating for a little bit longer) = DAX dragged down once more by US equities. I would really consider it to be great buy as it may form (short term) double bottom (if not, too bad, too late). The trend line from 2011 looks powerfull. More like a mid term buy (QE in place)/maybe long term (not sure on this - depends how EU fundamental/economy machines gonna ride).
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #138,533
  • Jan 12, 2016 4:37am Jan 12, 2016 4:37am
Quoting chester123
{quote} As per the chart: It would be nice if DAX moved back into the 9650-9700 territory. It may happen if the oil continues in this exhaustion leg (very probable - is gonna keep E/U levitating for a little bit longer) = DAX dragged down by US equities. I would really consider it to be great buy as it may form (short term) double bottom (if not, too bad, too late). The trend line from 2011 looks powerfull. More like a mid term buy (QE in place)/maybe long term (not sure on this - depends how EU fundamental/economy machines gonna ride). {image}
Definitely agree about those if- when?- we get another bout of volatility. Right now- as long as they're easily holding- we can still sort of shrug off the moves and feel that they belie the state of the global economy with China the problem child, oil over-supply etc. But sh*t will get real if they start breaking and taking those lows (longer term.) When oil plummets it's probably going to stay down for a long time and those equities remain range-bound at the lows too.

When I think of a move like that it just seems a bit far out of the mean for now (of course that can change in a second.) and also implies a serious global downturn and a lot of instability and friction around the world especially emerging economies.

Either way, some serious long term value especially on Euro equities like you say if those levels get smoothly tested/breached for business as usual.
  • #138,534
  • Jan 12, 2016 4:53am Jan 12, 2016 4:53am
Lots of noise this morning. All coming from OIL obviously (from OPEC to Producers passing through Politicians). Talking heads in panic mode hitting all sides and even the mainstream headlines and the laggers are calling OIL to break under $30 which definitively means short term bottom is around the corner.

More importantly for trading, short term RISK is fading with Treasuries starting to retreat and GOLD coughing on the test 1100.xx. Earning season starting too in the US meaning equities will refocus on Company Fundamentals rather than Macro factors in the short term. The minute we clear short term risk, Dollar is set to fly high very high to kick start this year in currencies.

On the Euro, eyes on 1.086x for NY which is the only to track this week. For those trading Sterling, getting hammered again after very poor manufacturing numbers and a test of the lows of the 1.44xx handle is unavoidable. Alerts today in GU with London going home...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,535
  • Jan 12, 2016 6:02am Jan 12, 2016 6:02am
Quoting sisse
Lots of noise this morning. All coming from OIL obviously (from OPEC to Producers passing through Politicians). Talking heads in panic mode hitting all sides and even the mainstream headlines and the laggers are calling OIL to break under $30 which definitively means short term bottom is around the corner. More importantly for trading, short term RISK is fading with Treasuries starting to retreat and GOLD coughing on the test 1100.xx. Earning season starting too in the US meaning equities will refocus on Company Fundamentals rather than Macro factors...
Hi sisse, please excuse my ignorance but:

"The minute we clear short term risk, Dollar is set to fly high very high"

was thinking the other way, (risk = flight to USD) would you mind explaining?
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,536
  • Edited 6:34am Jan 12, 2016 6:22am | Edited 6:34am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} Hi sisse, please excuse my ignorance but: "The minute we clear short term risk, Dollar is set to fly high very high" was thinking the other way, (risk = flight to USD) would you mind explaining?
Hello USDbear, ill just try to answer just simply as an exercise + update my view on E/U - I may be completely wrong/sisse may have completely different arguments: on E/U I would argue the slide is gonna be fast - DXY is goona move strongly too as its mostly made of E/U (not so sure on NZD, CAD, AUD as those have done their thing short term)... reason? The major fundamental forces are still the same - nothing has changed mid/long term (doubts about US slowdown have been mostly erased by NFP) = the only thing is we have a short term risk-off leg (due to unwinding of carry trade in euro the dollar went down - generally the risk off translated much more into gold/trasuries than dollar = reason why DXY did not move much up), which is eventually gonna be a part of the prevailing mid/long term legs down - China can cause a risk-off legs but it cannot change the mid/long term plays/views unless they translate into some fundamental changes (the weakness in China is well known for some time + now it may be smart to watch out if some meaningfull cracks appear in US/EU - but untill it happens the mid/long term flows are gonna prevail and eventually overcome the risk-off leg). And if the china risk-off did not happen - euro would be much lower now so once the risk-off is gonne the pair is gonna catch up = go faster to where it would be if the risk-off did not happen.

* all this said under the condition that the risk-off is really leaving, i.e. no cataclysm in china with global markets in 2008 mode again.

and lol, this may be "intuition based non-sense"

P.S.: hope you got some good short in bunds as we even got into 160,xx lvl - I did not resist so hope I dont get burnt with my "first in my life trade in bunds"
  • #138,537
  • Jan 12, 2016 6:27am Jan 12, 2016 6:27am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} Hi sisse, please excuse my ignorance but: "The minute we clear short term risk, Dollar is set to fly high very high" was thinking the other way, (risk = flight to USD) would you mind explaining?
If we get past short term risk - with focus switching to earnings instead of China and the price of crude - then this should be supportive for gains in the dollar, as the risks of the Fed changing course - becoming more dovish - on their intended path on interest rates is seen as diminished. There is a strong divergence between the official Fed outlook for rates and what the market expects in 2016 - a convergence on this, if the macro fears stabilise, could set up some nice moves.

We could even see a delayed positive impact from Friday's NFP print. In recent sessions, the dollar has failed to gain much traction in the environment of heightened volatility (certainly relative to comparable episodes in the past, when it was a bigger beneficiary in a risk-off scenario), as long-term USDJPY longs unwind and those who were short EUR as the funding leg on carry trades reduced leverage and unwound risk trades.
  • #138,538
  • Jan 12, 2016 6:27am Jan 12, 2016 6:27am
Quoting hathor
Viewer Discretion Is Advised. With my current higher time frame signals, the map is the following for me (until opposite direction signals arrives): {image} In case of falling back, the closer I can buy to point 'C' (might even under it...), the happier I will be: {image}
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2015_01_12_EurUsd_H4.png Size: 19 KB


Monthly - Buy at 1.07314 [March.2015]
Weekly - Buy at 1.05919 [Nov.22.2015]
Daily - Buy at 1.07797 [Jan.06.2015]
H4 - Buy arrived at night

However all TF shows buy, it does not mean it will go up now! It means the pair leaved equilibrium to the downside.
It tells me the pair is under pressure and the most strategy/system gives sell signals at this time. So for me it's buying time. The lower I can buy, the better. Currently we are at same level where previous H4 signal came. Pushing to the downside should bring good opportunity to buy.

Peace!
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,539
  • Jan 12, 2016 6:33am Jan 12, 2016 6:33am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Hello USDbear, ill just try to answer just simply as an exercise + update my view on E/U - I may be completely wrong/sisse may have completely different arguments: on E/U I would argue the slide is gonna be fast - DXY is goona move strongly too as its mostly made of E/U (not so sure on NZD, CAD, AUD as those have done their thing short term)... reason? The major fundamental forces are still the same - nothing has changed mid/long term (doubts about US slowdown have been mostly erased by NFP) = the only thing is we have a short term risk-off...
Hi chester,
thanks for your overview appreciated!
What I'm just wondering is the basic relationship USD vs risk.
Normally when the world is on fire, USD's are bought.
If risks disappear, something else is bought.
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,540
  • Jan 12, 2016 6:39am Jan 12, 2016 6:39am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} Hi chester, thanks for your overview appreciated! What I'm just wondering is the basic relationship USD vs risk. Normally when the world is on fire, USD's are bought. If risks disappear, something else is bought.
Maybe look at this:

Its sisses post number 138,421 on this thread.

========
Well now after the fact i can tell you the answer which is exactly why I completely missed the last flow in the dollar (euro). We went (are going) a bit further than a simple risk-on and off event so markets went to GOLD and to smaller but still decent scale considering the move to Treasuries.

I mentioned a few times in FF, but for your reference RISK flows goes like this in very broad terms:

1. Normal risk-off / on events goes to Dollar

2. Medium risk on/off events usually goes to Gold

3. Major risk on/events goes to the almighty ultimate haven Treasuries ....

Obviously there is a grey scale in between so those are the general references ....

sisse
==========

Staring to feel as sisses FF stalker
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