Mike's EURUSD Trading Room

It's great to see a bit of discussion going on! I trade the Asian session infrequently. If there's a really big move that appears unsustainable I'll usually try to fade it before the London open, I'm often out during the day though given I live in Australia! For the purpose of trading it's incredibly tempting to move to Europe so I don't have to keep trading late into the night. One day perhaps I will...


Onto today's analysis...

I'm skipping to the 4-Hourly as the Daily chart hasn't really changed since yesterday. We're still quite high in the channel, as such my preference will remain on short trades until the upper restraint is broken. Price action did end up being a bit indecisive after the early down move.



Hourly

I should have set up this uptrend channel array on Friday or yesterday but simply didn't see it. I've got it in there now and it should help to guide any long entries should the price drop further. Once again my preference is short trades as we're near the top of that bearish channel.



15-Minute

The bear array has now been broken, so I'll be waiting until I can drawn some fresh channels before I base any more trades off the 15-minute chart. An exception is that I would definitely take a short trade from a re-touch of the lowest ascending (green) trend line. Confluence with the 1.0925 level would certainly be desirable.



5-Minute

Here's a great one for if I'd been trading the Asian session today. Really nice 5-minute channel array from about 8am this morning (around the Sydney open). I still prefer the 15-minute channel at 1.0925 at the moment, but this could also guide some counter-trend shorts. If nothing else, it describes today's price action really accurately. Just notice that drawing this one would've been difficult and not possible until after 12:50 on the chart.



From a fundamental perspective things are looking pretty light for the coming session; no high-impact news coming our way just yet. Everything is still about China at the moment...

Mike

Good morning Mike, getting ready to trade the London session now. Whats up for triggers?

EURUSD 15min - orange line is my next area of focus for possible shorting area. What do you guys think?

G'day

At the moment I'm only really looking at that 15-minute channel. If I see an ADX trigger (bullish momentum line above 40) on the 1-minute chart coupled with some price action confirmation on any time frame at the 1.0925 level I'll be in for sure. As the situation develops I'll be on the lookout for new entry triggers.

Mike

Thanks Mike, I am just wondering about the lines on my chart. Am I drawing them correctly?

If you want to setup your charts the exact same way I do then they're technically not quite correct... however as long as they're fulfilling the basic purpose of locating prices at which there is likely to be an imbalance of selling/buying interest you'll be fine. If you want some specific rules for setting up the channel arrays the way I do, please refer to the following post from my other thread:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...32#post8647032

Mike

Thanks for the link. The 0898 trendline held price so far. Which lines on my chart are not correct?

No dramas at all. I can't remember if there's a duplicate object function in MT4, but the biggest thing is that I tend to use equidistant channels when I set them up - yours aren't quite equidistant (distance AB is not equal to distance BC). I can do a video on setting these up if that would be helpful?

The other thing is that I like to use the most obvious swing high/low as the origin for the channel. I'd be using the red circled one

I hope that clears things up for you.

Mike

The 1.085 level isn't looking awful for a long position. I do have two issues with it though:

1. The level has been retested several times in the last 24 hours.
2. The hourly chart is looking really good for short positions at the moment.

I'll only take a long from 1.085 with price action and ADX confirmation. Preferably 15 minute or better PA.

Here's an updated hourly chart the way I see it:



If we drop to 1.080 I'll be very happy to get in long.

Mike

Thanks Mike, I will try to redraw my lines over the next hour. 0800 is going to be an interesting level to watch for sure. Great charts.

New channel array on the 5-minute chart. Note that the price is still hugging the upper bound of the 15-minute array. There's plenty of room left on the downside of higher time frames however. Just patiently waiting for a good, high probability entry.

That hourly channel is now confirmed in my eyes given the break of 1.0840. I was tempted to look for a short around 1.0860 but didn't really have a good channel to base the trade off, which is a pity as it would have worked out nicely.

While writing this the 5-minute chart has come up with some nice price action for a potential reversal and the ADX is coming up as oversold... those factors coupled with the location of the price on the 15-minute chart could actually make a long trade from around 1.036 or so work. I'm being cautious though as I feel like the momentum is swinging downwards overall currently.

Mike

EURUSD still feeling heavy at the moment. I think EURUSD could find support between 0820-00. Waiting for those levels at the moment.

Some lines being respected on the EURUSD.. Looking at the 0810-20 area for a bounce.

I'm in long with confluence between the 1.0825 level and our friendly 15-minute array. Definitely looking to take at least 10 pips, preferably 15.

Mike

It occurs to me that I'm incredibly tired (it's nearly 2am here...) so I decided to close at 10 pips. Maybe I really should consider moving to a better time zone for trading this session...

It's probably going to make 15 but I'm not in the right frame of mind to manage risk right now, up 10.4 pips for the day, I'll take it!

Cheers, see you tomorrow!
Mike

EDIT: that actually wasn't a bad place to close... it's now heading south once more!

Nice trade and nice exit there... still waiting for lower here.

Me too. I am also waiting to get long around 1.0805-1.0770 Zone Hope it gets there then bounces up from that area

I won't be able to trade until later in the session today so I'll post some charts now. I missed the big trade I was waiting for last night... it ended up occurring around 5am my time. See the 5-minute and 1-hour charts below - price pulled back to the exact top of my new hourly channel with 1-minute price action confirmation, an overbought ADX and all this at a round level. Basically all my Christmases would have come at once.

As for today's trading, let's see what happens to the current trend channel on the hourly chart. Things are certainly looking down for the EURUSD right now, the early Asian session has seen some strong selling.

At this point I can only say that I'd be looking to buy the bottom and sell the top of the current 1-hour trend channel.

Mike

good to see some fellow aussies trading my time zone. I mainly trade gbpaud( check me out on thread) as it moves twice the speed of this during the asia, European and generally any time so double the pips. Happy to learn new strategies, interesting grid methodology anyways.

Long EURUSD @ 1.0805 Lets see where this one will take us ... I will be adding more long positions all the way down to 1.0770 if this one goes down further. As mentioned in previous post I see the zone between 1.0770 and 1.0800 as demand zone ... good luck to all