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Mike's EURUSD Trading Room

  • #21
  • Dec 17, 2015 1:33am Dec 17, 2015 1:33am
I'm out for 12 pips of profit, closed early as the lower end of the channel had overtaken the original 15 pip target's price of 1.0860. The price did actually end up going through that price and is now proceeding further south.

Great trade!

Mike

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Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #22
  • Jan 6, 2016 1:25am Jan 6, 2016 1:25am
Happy New Year and welcome to 2016! I'm back from holidays and getting into some fresh EURUSD analysis...

It's been a funny couple of days with some big sell-offs in China affecting global markets. Despite this, I'm confident there some strong entries with really solid risk to reward ratios.

Daily Perspective

The D1 time frame shows the price has reacted from demand with the help of CPI data but only re-tested the previous trend channel's low (green line on the chart). The current direction is clearly down, and in my opinion there is plenty more room for a bearish continuation.

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Hourly Perspective

Here's where things get interesting. I am looking at long positions from the base of this bearish trend channel. Caution should be exercised of course, as that big level at 1.08054 has now been broken to the downside.

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M5/M1 Perspective

I'm highlighting this smaller, intraday channel as a possible entry tool for either long positions or short ones. I'm definitely in favour of long positions at this point in time, however. Confluence entries on the 1.0725 level could have a lot of potential.

Note that I'm really keen on short positions overall given the daily chart, however I would require a better price to enter short than what we're presently being offered.

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Well, here's to a profitable 2016! May we obtain as much value as possible

Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #23
  • Edited 1:58am Jan 6, 2016 1:42am | Edited 1:58am
Long position taken at 1.07241. Considering a modification of TP to 1.0740, which is closer to my standard 15 pip target.

Mike

EDIT: The powers that be have decided this one wasn't meant to be. I'll look to re-enter at 1.070. In hindsight I may have wanted to wait for an ADX signal (red line over the 40 level) before entering, however I don't know that it would've made much difference; the entry looked good to me.

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Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #24
  • Jan 6, 2016 7:22am Jan 6, 2016 7:22am
Cleaned up a nice short on the EUR, however I now have egg on my face after the ADP data. That gap though...

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Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #25
  • Jan 6, 2016 8:57am Jan 6, 2016 8:57am
Thanks Mike and hope you have a great new year too.
May I ask if you can expand the (your) concept behind ADX confirmations?
it could be applied in others TF's?
Humble & Kalcker CLO2 = Covid killer
  • #26
  • Jan 8, 2016 1:34am Jan 8, 2016 1:34am
8th of January

Missed a big one early in the morning today. The price headed north right up to the top of my hourly trend channel and posted a nice set of reversal candles right before the Asian session began. My preference at the moment is short trades so long as we're capped below that hourly channel. Having said all that, I'm happy to take long trades at areas of price action confirmation, preferably with some of those demand (green box) zones on the hourly chart given the lack of direction in the daily chart.

Take it easy today, and don't forget to sell any Chinese shares you may have... :nerd:

Mike

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Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #27
  • Jan 8, 2016 1:45am Jan 8, 2016 1:45am
Quoting jusiur
Thanks Mike and hope you have a great new year too. May I ask if you can expand the (your) concept behind ADX confirmations? it could be applied in others TF's?
Hi Julian,

I used to use the ADX on all time frames, but that was back when I was addicted to technical indicators...

The main reason I don't use it on other TFs is mostly because I've found using it on the 1-minute chart to be the most profitable. I am of course open to using it in a different way pending my back-testing and other analysis.

The second reason is that I tend to misuse indicators if I have too many of them on my screen. By using only a single oscillating indicator I guess I'm limiting my exposure to my own stupidity. I've made too many mistakes in the past by using only lagging indicators to base a trade. I feel as though it's really important to think critically about why the price is going to move from a certain level, rather than using an indicator by itself. In the past I've been quite prone to doing this.

I hope that makes sense.

EDIT: I might do a video expanding on this more at some stage soon. I really like the ADX when used as a filter, and I don't see why it couldn't be applied to other strategies as well.

Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #28
  • Jan 8, 2016 1:59am Jan 8, 2016 1:59am
What was I saying about taking long trades from areas of price action confirmation? I took a long trade from that reversal area you can see on the 15-minute chart two posts ago. It is always good when the first trade of the day goes my way.

I should've tried to get in closer to the bottom of the range zone, still I was able to get my stop just below the lower threshold so it worked out. The yellow horizontal lines represent a ranging market. The idea is to do one of the following:

 

  1. Play the bounce by buying low and selling high within the rangebound zone.
  2. Play the breakout by either buying low / selling high and waiting for a breakout or buying an upside break / selling a downside break after the fact.

I kept the target conservative given the price has been moving down consistently all day. 16.3 pips is good enough for me. Once again I really should have entered at the base of the zone.

Mike

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Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #29
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:19am Jan 11, 2016 1:19am
Afternoon fellow traders!

I hope you've had a splendid weekend. Time now to get back into the thick of things!

While writing up this post, a short entry came up that I decided to take. Unfortunately I hadn't put myself into the correct mindset for trading yet and impulsively closed the trade early. I ended up with 3.5 pips of profit... two minutes later of course the price moved such that my 15 pip target would've been taken out. Let this be an example to all of us: prepare yourself emotionally before even considering pulling the trigger on a trade! Normally I don't allow myself to trade before doing a full top-down analysis of the instrument, however I was almost finished and thought I was ok. Clearly I was wrong! It's just so important to get into that mental place where you are in complete control. Here's a picture of the trade for illustrative purposes.

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Now that we've all had a laugh at my expense, let's get on with the pre-London analysis.

Daily

I still see plenty of room on the up and downside. Price action from the last two days looks very indecisive but that's mostly the fault of the NFP. Shorts and longs will both be fine at the moment.

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4H and 1H

Simple stuff here; we're at the top of a big, big channel. Short trades are hugely favoured and I wont' be taking longs anytime soon unless we see an upside breakout with a retest.

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M15

This is the time frame that gave me pause on that short trade I just took. There's still plenty of room to the upside in the current channel, however given the environment in the hourly / 4-hourly chart I'd only take longs from this channel as part of a retest of that large bearish channel on the larger time frames.

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M5

Here we go, I took that short based on the channel duplicate you can see below. I wrote that annotation "fishing for good prices to short from" before taking the trade. I guess I caught a big one on the first cast, but let it get away somehow.

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Well, here's to a solid week of trading the markets! Don't forget to keep emotions in check and to prepare yourself mentally before taking any trades. I bought a couple of books by Mark Douglas recently and they just arrived, I really don't know how I haven't read Trading in the Zone yet but I guess its better late than never.

Mike

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Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #30
  • Jan 11, 2016 2:10am Jan 11, 2016 2:10am
Quoting mjrsaunders
Afternoon fellow traders! I hope you've had a splendid weekend. Time now to get back into the thick of things! While writing up this post, a short entry came up that I decided to take. Unfortunately I hadn't put myself into the correct mindset for trading yet and impulsively closed the trade early. I ended up with 3.5 pips of profit... two minutes later of course the price moved such that my 15 pip target would've been taken out. Let this be an example to all of us: prepare yourself emotionally before even considering pulling the trigger on a trade!...
morning. should have held that short longer i shorted at around 1.0975 and im +70 today
  • #31
  • Jan 11, 2016 2:56am Jan 11, 2016 2:56am
Quoting FSUtrader
{quote} morning. should have held that short longer i shorted at around 1.0975 and im +70 today
That's one hell of a trade! Sounds like you've picked the absolute market top, rolling in it

I was pretty frustrated with myself on that short trade... still it's in the past and we can only control our actions in the present.

I picked the 1.0875 level to go counter-trend. Took a -5.3 pip hit getting in around 1.0886 but re-entered at the .75 level for a clean 10.5 pips. Got out earlier than 15 pips after some weird price action on the 15 minute chart.

I'm using this chart to plan trades now that the market is moving further down.

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And here's that long trade for 10.5 pips.

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Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #32
  • Jan 11, 2016 2:59pm Jan 11, 2016 2:59pm
Quoting mjrsaunders
{quote} That's one hell of a trade! Sounds like you've picked the absolute market top, rolling in it I was pretty frustrated with myself on that short trade... still it's in the past and we can only control our actions in the present. I picked the 1.0875 level to go counter-trend. Took a -5.3 pip hit getting in around 1.0886 but re-entered at the .75 level for a clean 10.5 pips. Got out earlier than 15 pips after some weird price action on the 15 minute chart. I'm using this chart to plan trades now that the market is moving further down....
nice chart. Yeah, i did get the very top. But, i consider that making up for the beating EU gave me last week
  • #33
  • Jan 11, 2016 3:05pm Jan 11, 2016 3:05pm
mike would it be to much to ask what indicator you are using in post #2?. Looks like maybe support and resistance zone or maybe s&d zones with the shaded boxes. I've been looking literally everywhere for an indicator that shows tested zones with the shade. Or if someone reading this has some suggestions feel free to chime in. Thanks
  • #34
  • Jan 11, 2016 6:03pm Jan 11, 2016 6:03pm
Quoting FSUtrader
mike would it be to much to ask what indicator you are using in post #2?. Looks like maybe support and resistance zone or maybe s&d zones with the shaded boxes. I've been looking literally everywhere for an indicator that shows tested zones with the shade. Or if someone reading this has some suggestions feel free to chime in. Thanks
Hey FSUtrader, it's no trouble at all. The ability to draw those shaded rectangles actually comes standard with the platform I use (cTrader). Some objects have an opacity setting so you can make them as transparent as you like. I am not aware of a function within MT4 that lets you do this, however I haven't used it in quite a while.

Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #35
  • Jan 11, 2016 6:07pm Jan 11, 2016 6:07pm
I ended up calling it a night around 2 hours before the NY open yesterday, but here's the 15 minute channel array I setup. You can see that there are a couple of really nice setups that came up after about 2100hrs on the chart. Still happy with the session, took a clean +2.36% overall.

Mike

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Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #36
  • Jan 11, 2016 6:32pm Jan 11, 2016 6:32pm
Quoting mjrsaunders
I ended up calling it a night around 2 hours before the NY open yesterday, but here's the 15 minute channel array I setup. You can see that there are a couple of really nice setups that came up after about 2100hrs on the chart. Still happy with the session, took a clean +2.36% overall. Mike {image}
Hello there, I am just wondering if the lines on your chart are put there manually or is it a form of pitchfork?
Know your edge and trade within it
  • #37
  • Jan 11, 2016 7:19pm Jan 11, 2016 7:19pm
Quoting fxtrader29ca
{quote} Hello there, I am just wondering if the lines on your chart are put there manually or is it a form of pitchfork?
Hi there,

My channel array idea is essentially a pitchfork, yes. Having said that, I manually draw the original channel and then duplicate it to either side. There may be an easier way to do this with cTrader however I'm not aware of one. Doing it this way is working pretty well for me at the moment; I don't really like cTrader's pitchfork function.

Mike
Understanding yourself is synonymous with understanding the markets.
  • #38
  • Jan 11, 2016 7:35pm Jan 11, 2016 7:35pm
EURUSD: Here is a 15min and a Daily Chart with some levels and trendlines. Getting the ball rolling for the Asian Session.
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Know your edge and trade within it
  • #39
  • Jan 11, 2016 9:53pm Jan 11, 2016 9:53pm
Updated EURUSD 15min Chart . With a few more trendlines on there.
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Know your edge and trade within it
  • #40
  • Jan 11, 2016 10:07pm Jan 11, 2016 10:07pm
Quoting letchworth40
{quote} appreciate the chart. I was a bit hesitant but went in as well at 1.0880. Does seem like a great opportunity for an easy 5 or so pips.
Nice trade. Are you trading the asian session?
Know your edge and trade within it
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