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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #18,381
  • Edited 12:06pm Jan 8, 2016 11:47am | Edited 12:06pm
Quoting cat
The fact that not even a good jobs number could lift equities beyond an initial push up means that there is absolutely no confidence in this market. We could be headed for more falls next week, and if they really snowball and people start panicking, then it could be 2008 all over again, only this time far worse. The Dax is approaching the Daily 76.4% again for the third time, so this is now the big support level. If it breaks, then it'll challenge the August lows which are on the weekly 200ema level. Personally, I don't think the crash will happen...
Hm, I'm not one for predicting where the market is going, other than as a pastime. As my favourite quote says, I get bullish/bearish when my stop entry is hit, and that's it.

But in response to what you are saying, not to debate it but to offer another perspective, here are some observations:

  1. In spite of being NFP day, the volume is lower than yesterday
  2. What you call sell-off found support above yesterday's Globex close
  3. Most of yesterday's volume came around current levels

Adding to that the observation that many NFP days are 'fake-outs' into reversal levels, I'd rest my case on market direction until Monday.

As to the NFP numbers, I can't resist quoting the Whipsaw Song:

Quote
What do we do with the hot news flash?
We stash that flash right in the trash.

Inserted Video


But now weekend. Have a good one!
  • #18,382
  • Jan 8, 2016 12:24pm Jan 8, 2016 12:24pm
Quoting medici
{quote} With IG this happens also under ordinary market conditions, i.e. away from news time. Not a problem for me, but maybe your perspective differs?
It does indeed. Here Islander's "Selling Climax Candle" from the 6th. (Time is UTC-1h in this one)

Other spreadbet brokers behave similarly. Whether that's a "problem" or not does indeed depend upon ones perspective, but at the very least forewarned is forearmed!
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  • #18,383
  • Edited 6:25pm Jan 8, 2016 1:15pm | Edited 6:25pm
Quoting TradingGurus
{quote} It does indeed. Here Islander's "Selling Climax Candle" from the 6th. (Time is UTC-1h in this one) Other spreadbet brokers behave similarly. Whether that's a "problem" or not does indeed depend upon ones perspective, but at the very least forewarned is forearmed! {image}
Ok, so one more example of the same. What is your different perspective, then?

Also, what is your source of data for this example? My charts seem to show more ticks in that spike down.
  • #18,384
  • Jan 8, 2016 2:50pm Jan 8, 2016 2:50pm
Quoting medici
{quote} Hm, I'm not one for predicting where the market is going, other than as a pastime. As my favourite quote says, I get bullish/bearish when my stop entry is hit, and that's it. But in response to what you are saying, not to debate it but to offer another perspective, here are some observations: In spite of being NFP day, the volume is lower than yesterday What you call sell-off found support above yesterday's Globex close Most of yesterday's volume came around current levels Adding to that the observation that many NFP days are 'fake-outs'...
It is a sell off, beyond yesterday's close, low volume or not. I am most certainly in the business of predicting future price movements, not as a pastime, but as part of being a professional trader. I seem to recall how you posted your predictions for a strong up move today with great certainty, was that not a prediction of future price movement? I sense a certain arrogance in your posts, which unfortunately is quite common among those with a red diamond. Offering another perspective is perfectly welcome, but not so when that perspective comes across as being ' the ' perspective as opposed to ' a ' perspective.

Wishing you too a good weekend.
  • #18,385
  • Jan 8, 2016 3:05pm Jan 8, 2016 3:05pm
very interesting week... definitely not what i was expecting the first week of 2016... 1929 must have been crazy...

we need circuit breakers...chinese style..
practising coitus interruptus
  • #18,386
  • Jan 8, 2016 3:35pm Jan 8, 2016 3:35pm
NAS100 finally made weekly close in the cloud. We are riding above cloud since 2008. If next week's candle close below cloud, we may enter bears market probably throughout this year.
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  • #18,387
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:35pm Jan 8, 2016 4:35pm
Quoting cat
{quote} It is a sell off, beyond yesterday's close, low volume or not. I am most certainly in the business of predicting future price movements, not as a pastime, but as part of being a professional trader. I seem to recall how you posted your predictions for a strong up move today with great certainty, was that not a prediction of future price movement? I sense a certain arrogance in your posts, which unfortunately is quite common among those with a red diamond. Offering another perspective is perfectly welcome, but not so when that perspective...
Dear cat, my sincere apologies for any offence. I did try to point out that I wasn't debating anything (just observing a few things at the time of writing) and, yes, making predictions as a pastime. Yet I am ascribed arrogance and prediction-making with great confidence. A misunderstanding, I believe, and I am sorry for my contribution to it.
  • #18,388
  • Jan 9, 2016 8:47am Jan 9, 2016 8:47am
Quoting medici
{quote} Dear cat, my sincere apologies for any offence. I did try to point out that I wasn't debating anything (just observing a few things at the time of writing) and, yes, making predictions as a pastime. Yet I am ascribed arrogance and prediction-making with great confidence. A misunderstanding, I believe, and I am sorry for my contribution to it.
Like a losing trade, it's already forgotten. I agree, predictions are always best kept to oneself as the market will invariably always have the last laugh. The best we can do is have a few chuckles along the way.
  • #18,389
  • Jan 9, 2016 6:18pm Jan 9, 2016 6:18pm
Quoting cat
{quote} Like a losing trade, it's already forgotten. I agree, predictions are always best kept to oneself as the market will invariably always have the last laugh. The best we can do is have a few chuckles along the way.
Aww, thank you

Peace on earth!

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  • #18,390
  • Jan 10, 2016 3:36am Jan 10, 2016 3:36am
I believe the market may start pricing in the events forecast in this clip. We don't know whether the cited sources come in peace. The alien word could be a reference to flood of immigrants - if so, then the result could be that market is going very bullish instead on crashing after the date cited has passed.

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  • #18,391
  • Jan 10, 2016 4:10am Jan 10, 2016 4:10am
Will the indices follow the 60 years cycle ??

Sixer
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  • #18,392
  • Jan 10, 2016 5:11am Jan 10, 2016 5:11am
Quoting avibe
very interesting week... definitely not what i was expecting the first week of 2016... 1929 must have been crazy... we need circuit breakers...chinese style..
Those laughing at Chinese Circuit breakers will be crying if they find out that their markets did not have circuit breakers. Those circuit breakers are pretty much like stop losses that kick in lol.. European and American circuit breakers to be tested soon.
  • #18,393
  • Jan 10, 2016 6:49am Jan 10, 2016 6:49am
To complete the Long Term outlook: The Dow 90-years cycle.

Sixer
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  • #18,394
  • Jan 10, 2016 7:07am Jan 10, 2016 7:07am
Quoting Sixer
To complete the Long Term outlook: The Dow 90-years cycle. Sixer {image}
Let's see what Monday brings us.. Either a bounce or a fall off the cliff. We will start the week of with Asian markets either opening up bloody or up followed by Europe taking their Que. from US futures and then following the direction of which US stocks head as usual..
  • #18,395
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:13am Jan 11, 2016 1:13am
I would short the pops..
  • #18,396
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:14am Jan 11, 2016 1:14am
Quoting medici
{quote} Ok, so one more example of the same. What is your different perspective, then? Also, what is your source of data for this example? My charts seem to show more ticks in that spike down.
My perspective is that I've been ignoring IG for decades. Firstly because for a long time they provided no automated trading API. Secondly because when they did get around to providing such a thing it wasn't up to much. However following D1's recommendation around the time of the November NFP I'm now taking a (long overdue?) closer look.

The source of the data is a (currently unfunded!) live IG spread betting account via their "streaming API". However since the software that interfaces with IG's feed is still very much "alpha" it's not beyond the bounds of possibility there's a bug or two in it. Perhaps we might compare notes/charts?

In the meantime I'm not often sat in front of my screen at this hour of the morning. It's still dark outside! An interesting week ahead in the World's financial markets?
  • #18,397
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:16am Jan 11, 2016 1:16am
I noticed the large wick from the hammer on pre-trade hour open 14mins ago, and bought two mini's, set the TP for 40, and 8 mins later TP was hit.

9700 may hold for the early part of the session, but if it breaks, I'll be looking for support at 9600.
  • #18,398
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:29am Jan 11, 2016 1:29am
Morning,

short dax, 9796
  • #18,399
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:33am Jan 11, 2016 1:33am
Quoting Sixer
To complete the Long Term outlook: The Dow 90-years cycle. Sixer {image}
Well done on your look back on the cycles, I think we are following the 60 year cycle at the moment which means a rally up around the end of Jan or 1st Feb
  • #18,400
  • Jan 11, 2016 1:56am Jan 11, 2016 1:56am
Quoting Hurst
{quote} Well done on your look back on the cycles, I think we are following the 60 year cycle at the moment which means a rally up around the end of Jan or 1st Feb
Quite possible, I see an interim low coming in between 13 - 18 Jan, and then another counter rally to upside for possibly two calendar weeks. Seems to link in with your thoughts.
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