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EURUSD

  • #1,049,141
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:04pm Jan 8, 2016 4:04pm
Check out this lovely weekly pinbar only stubborn and masochistic people will short this.
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  • #1,049,142
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:21pm Jan 8, 2016 4:21pm
Curious why EU has a rally after a jobs report 90k over consensus? The initial reaction are the fundamental traders, who sell EU off that number alone. Then the smart money (valuation traders) use that liquidity to buy.

Also strong jobs report indicates Fed will raise rates again in March, which is dollar bullish, which actually means it's dollar bearish. Because the smart money goes contrarian to the dumb money. Even if the dumb money is right about how the fundamentals SHOULD effect the currency, try to live in reality, not in what SHOULD HAPPEN fantasy land.

The smart money will always take the market to the opposite of what most traders think should happen.

Fed rate hike means liquidity is drying up at a time when the market is already overvalued, so stocks fall on indications that the Fed hikes will continue (IE strong jobs report)

+130 points on SP500 short.
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,049,143
  • Edited 7:33pm Jan 8, 2016 4:22pm | Edited 7:33pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} it did go higher ... expecting a little bit higher but tp didn't reached ... let's see next week runners ... sh't always can happen (ea) {image} profit in pips (4 digits) not bragging with the size ...
booked 1 x 170 pips (not size bragging again) + 2 runners ...
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and it's really easy to make comments after the fact ... anlayse both fundies and techs after the facts it's really easy ...
no one mentioned this before NFP ...
Quoting edyraper
equities probably gonna be choppy today ... don't forget : {quote}
also before the fact support + fib + demand combo :
Quoting edyraper
9th december {quote} last HH printed 1.1059 here {image} I haven't entered any longs @070x ... {image} I've got last chance for longs @0546 for 1.1260 ... if it's drop if sh't doesn't happen 0804(0799) should provide a sup.
posted jan 7 does we exactly done the same move ?
Quoting edyraper
{quote} try this : according to your chart {image} where is the double top ?
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daily low 0802 printed here
also another before facts :
Quoting edyraper
{quote} kiwi trader any idea where the nu heading ? maybe 0.62 ?
Quoting edyraper
thanks so falling in the cards ...
Quoting edyraper
{quote} oopssss 66 gone ... {quote} better to watch EURNZD ... nothing bullish with GBPXXX pairs at the moment ... free fall can happen in GU I may be wrong ... don't take it as something ...
  • #1,049,144
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:33pm Jan 8, 2016 4:33pm
Just take a look at daily pin bar with stochastic crossing 50 north, what you thing it's going to happen next week?
  • #1,049,145
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:37pm Jan 8, 2016 4:37pm
Quoting edyraper
{quote} see you are an economy class trader but some is business class ... the universe don't give a sh't to economy class traders ... and to that guy ... we saw how you fail don't talk too much don't act like pro
​ 2 drops of pee just came out ...........
let the chart to be your chauffeur ... -Forexmnstr-
  • #1,049,146
  • Edited 5:30pm Jan 8, 2016 5:19pm | Edited 5:30pm
Quoting Capex
{quote} {quote} Sure...I get that...but the German government will not allow VW to go under (90B figures being called for US only is ridiculous); if total cooperation equals taking them through the mill and ending up at the same place...billions and billions, they may have decided there is a limit to cooperation and simply drag it out in court; no doubt a ban means less dollars to pay the fines etc but with Kenneth Feinberg on the case, i'm sure they'll navigate just fine.
ken f has nothing to do with each individual state. or other countries. ridiculous? maybe, but in most investigations, that may turn criminal, evidence is gathered. emails can be a smoking gun on who did what, why, and when. it seems you have already made up your mind. i sense a goldman moment from vw with some words to replace muppet (the car words = to muppet). i sense the german version is what vw dont want the world to hear.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,049,147
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:30pm Jan 8, 2016 5:30pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ken f has nothing to do with each individual state. or other countries. ridiculous? maybe, but in most investigations, that may turn criminal, evidence is gathered. emails can be a smoking gun on who did what, why, and when. it seems you have already made up your mind. i sense a goldman moment from vw with some words to replace muppet or the car words = to muppet.
DOJ going to salivate over this one. Careers are made of this stuff.
  • #1,049,148
  • Jan 8, 2016 6:24pm Jan 8, 2016 6:24pm
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,049,149
  • Edited 7:20pm Jan 8, 2016 6:44pm | Edited 7:20pm
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} ken f has nothing to do with each individual state. or other countries. ridiculous? maybe, but in most investigations, that may turn criminal, evidence is gathered. emails can be a smoking gun on who did what, why, and when. it seems you have already made up your mind. i sense a goldman moment from vw with some words to replace muppet (the car words = to muppet). i sense the german version is what vw dont want the world to hear.
I don't disagree with with your assertion. They were caught cheating, they've owned up and they'll happily payout because they have plenty to hide. I think right now, they'll invoke whatever they must even to sovereign state level to prevent intrusions that will reveal more than is necessary for settlement etc. The importance of vw to Germany and her economy makes me think they won't let it go to the wall. I know Ken f has nothing to do with other countries but I think they'll have it toughest in the us...I don't see other countries lining up to pursue criminal proceedings. It's mostly about reaching settlement for fines and customer compensations. Btw I'm not saying that approach is right, neither is my mind made up about the outcome. I just think they've done the figures and weighed other consequential fallout of unrestricted access to vw guts and may conclude that a divorce and period of consolidation might be better than letting more and more s*** hit the fan but we'll see how it plays out.
Think 4D: History, Future, Now and Noise
  • #1,049,150
  • Jan 8, 2016 7:19pm Jan 8, 2016 7:19pm
Quoting MdogKamileo
Thats why I hate stop loss+big spread... but who knows when you are absent.... {image}
The worst thing you could ever do is trade with no stop loss. I've read through the last 120 hours of post, and most people follow the advice of others, and those giving the advice "post charts" which suggest they are swing traders, but when those very trades see a massive spike, the quickly take positions, and so many people are now starting their weekend with a very very very big headache.
I can't remember who the member was, but he took a sell right when the NFP came out, which of course, resulted in a massive profit for the first 10 mins, only to lose it all on the reversal. Those type of trades show a "gamblers" mentality and those of you who follow are better off following yourself! Enjoy your weekend everyone.
Just because you "the information" doesn't mean you have knownledge.
  • #1,049,151
  • Edited 9:36pm Jan 8, 2016 8:21pm | Edited 9:36pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} euro is a sell for years to come and whats wrong with that. his returns are consistent boss. whats wrong with that.
his returns are consistent but he uses martingale strategy, so he could blow up the account.
if he used that strategy to long when EUR fell 3500 pips he would have busted the account.

lol, it's this kind of thinking that will get you into trouble

EUR loses over 30% of its value and it's still a sell? unlikely.

USA will go into recession with the dollar remaining this strong for years.


everyone is a EURUSD bear... smart money will reverse this bitch to 1.1255 or possibly 1.1810, his account could be blown by that point

my money is on those two 6-month wicks holding 1.0461 and 1.0519
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,049,152
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:29pm Jan 8, 2016 8:29pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} lol, it's this kind of thinking that will get you into trouble EUR loses over 30% of its value and it's still a sell? unlikely. USA will go into recession with the dollar remaining this strong for years. everyone and their dog is a EURUSD bear... smart money will reverse this bitch to 1.1250 or possibly 1.17
no US dollar is too strong bcoz of the devaluation which happened between 2009-2013. Its only since the past 2 years that dollar is strong. US recession maybe but not because of the dollar. fundamentals are too strong. no smart money will mess with ECB after what draghi has done twice in the last year. he kind of flip-flops in every meeting.
  • #1,049,153
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:33pm Jan 8, 2016 8:33pm
remember this

mildly bearish---> buy dollar, sell gold and commodities
medium bearish--> buy gold, buy aud, cad, nzd not for intraday but long term
hughely bearish--> buy euro.

it looks like we are somewhere in between 1 and 2
  • #1,049,154
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:43pm Jan 8, 2016 8:43pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
Curious why EU has a rally after a jobs report 90k over consensus? The initial reaction are the fundamental traders, who sell EU off that number alone. Then the smart money (valuation traders) use that liquidity to buy.
Bro, just a little sharing here which I read from some books. Fundamental traders different from short term to long term, weeks to months, months to years. Price did dropped but found support during the short term bullish phase and was being bought.

There are a few scenarios of how price react during some major news:
- Price react to the economic events in theory
- Price do not react to the economic events in theory
- Price spike up and down as traders not able to digest and react to the economic events (try taking screenshot of every FOMC events, maybe some will notice something)
And the above may or will occur depend on how price behave before the event, as forecast create a sentiment for the price to move before the actual events.

Below are 2 examples of FOMC events, price move with certainty, while another move in uncertainty. This happened due to different traders' interpretations of the news.
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The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #1,049,155
  • Jan 8, 2016 8:56pm Jan 8, 2016 8:56pm
Quoting giveachance
{quote} no US dollar is too strong bcoz of the devaluation which happened between 2009-2013. Its only since the past 2 years that dollar is strong. US recession maybe but not because of the dollar. fundamentals are too strong. no smart money will mess with ECB after what draghi has done twice in the last year. he kind of flip-flops in every meeting.
I understand the fundamentals support a continued EURUSD bear... and that's exactly why it won't continue going down.

The fundamentals are too obvious, and there is little profit left to be made on the downside, but the upside risks are enormous.


The primary story everyone is pushing is a continued slide into parity for the EU for 2016. Why is it that big banks are going long then? Whether it's short covering to take profits, or genuine speculative long EUR positions... it really doesn't matter... the result is a higher EURUSD.

If it is to go to parity it will probably need to go higher first to entice people to sell.. because 1.05-1.07 is nearly the same as 1.00
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,049,156
  • Edited 9:33pm Jan 8, 2016 9:00pm | Edited 9:33pm
Quoting kinspk
{quote} Bro, just a little sharing here which I read from some books. Fundamental traders different from short term to long term, weeks to months, months to years. Price did dropped but found support during the short term bullish phase and was being bought. There are a few scenarios of how price react during some major news: - Price react to the economic events in theory - Price do not react to the economic events in theory - Price spike up and down as traders not able to digest and react to the economic events (try taking screenshot of every FOMC...
Yes, it's a technical correction, and valuation is also ridiculous.

The fundamental EU short story is still intact, but the valuation will hinder that story for the next 6-12 months.

Until EU trades at least 400 pips higher it's not really worth shorting , IMO. 800 pips would be more ideal.

We spent most of 2015 trading above 1.09.. and anytime we trade below that level it rallies.

It could be forming a bear flag, but I still see it rallying before any short potential
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Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,049,157
  • Jan 8, 2016 9:04pm Jan 8, 2016 9:04pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} Yes, it's a technical correction, and valuation is also ridiculous. The fundamental EU short story is still intact, but the valuation will hinder that story for the next 6-12 months. Until EU trades at least 400 pips higher it's not really worth shorting , IMO. 800 pips would be more ideal.
Yes you are right. Thats why some fundamental traders win some fundamental traders lost, no one is right or wrong. It's a matter of timing the phase. Market is both random and non random depend on each trader's interpretation of the market and catching the non random phase.
The only winner is the one who survive the longest...
  • #1,049,158
  • Jan 8, 2016 9:30pm Jan 8, 2016 9:30pm
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos...bull-run-over-
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,049,159
  • Jan 8, 2016 9:43pm Jan 8, 2016 9:43pm
Quoting kinspk
{quote} Yes you are right. Thats why some fundamental traders win some fundamental traders lost, no one is right or wrong. It's a matter of timing the phase. Market is both random and non random depend on each trader's interpretation of the market and catching the non random phase.
Agreed, timing is more important.. which is why I place more emphasis on technicals than fundamentals

With fundamentals and low leverage you can make money, but you will have your capital tied up in one trade for months at a time, waiting for a move to happen in your favor.. and during that time will likely have to suffer the anxiety of 100s of pips of drawdown.



But if I had to choose one fundamental for EU longs, it's the most important fundamental of all.... it's not policy divergence...

It's price valuation relative to momentum. That's the most important fundamental.

EU short momentum is extremely slow now (10 months without new 52 week lows), and valuation is extreme undervalued (12 year lows)
Be hopeful in a winning position, and fearful in a losing position.
  • #1,049,160
  • Jan 8, 2016 10:55pm Jan 8, 2016 10:55pm
Quoting hathor
Waiting for 1.1xxxx, than 1.2xxxx. Time will tell.
Finally, I saw someone have same point of view with me. I am expecting 1.12-1.17 area, soon and very soon.
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