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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #18,341
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:26am Jan 8, 2016 4:26am
Quoting Carpathian
Hello All, DAX CASH IDX; M1 chart, looking for long after 50-70 pts retrace and M1-RSI(10) below 70%, before noon.
Long @ 10040, TP 10100, SL PA dependent.
  • #18,342
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:26am Jan 8, 2016 4:26am
I just went short but using M5 Chart
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  • #18,343
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:44am Jan 8, 2016 4:44am
Quoting derekw
I just went short but using M5 Chart {image}
Ehhh, why not long, the two of us we could push it up :-)
  • #18,344
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:50am Jan 8, 2016 4:50am
Quoting Carpathian
{quote} Long @ 10040, TP 10100, SL PA dependent.
SL-ed @ 10018.
  • #18,345
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:55am Jan 8, 2016 4:55am
Make position safe, cover with SL +6 pips
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  • #18,346
  • Jan 8, 2016 4:57am Jan 8, 2016 4:57am
Quoting Carpathian
{quote} Ehhh, why not long, the two of us we could push it up :-)
It still may go long!
  • #18,347
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:02am Jan 8, 2016 5:02am
Quoting derekw
{quote} It still may go long!
It will.. some time, for sure
  • #18,348
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:09am Jan 8, 2016 5:09am
if dow can break 16540 we may go downside at dax together.
  • #18,349
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:12am Jan 8, 2016 5:12am
Stopped Out +6 pips
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  • #18,350
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:12am Jan 8, 2016 5:12am
Quoting letscry
if dow can break 16540 we may go downside at dax together.
I consider DAX the leading one until NYSE opens.
  • #18,351
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:20am Jan 8, 2016 5:20am
Quoting Carpathian
{quote} I consider DAX the leading one until NYSE opens.
well they r highly orrelated and volumes at us are much higher than in germany i guess so i think dow and sp futures moves effect dax in real time trading.
and as i said after 16540 was broken dax started to fall sharp 3 mins ago
  • #18,352
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:23am Jan 8, 2016 5:23am
I'm looking for a solid base at 9930s if we get there, but not sure it will drop that far, unless NFP takes it there, which is 200sma on 5m, and 20sma on 1H, and 7sma on 4H. Any break of this level, means its back in downtrend and the counter-rally has failed.
  • #18,353
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:29am Jan 8, 2016 5:29am
Slow markets waiting for NFP, so time for taking a look at the bigger picture.

Ever since the April high, DAX has been in a downtrend capped by a trend-line that hasn't been broken except for December 2015.

In spite of the peek above the trend-line, December was a sell-off month. The first half of the month saw strong selling, with low-volume recovery until Xmas, which took the index up to the 50% level of the current range, with resistance at the trend-line clearly noticeable.

Further, if one examines the December volumes, volumes were lower on up days than down days.

Then the last two days of last year saw the downtrend resume.

In view of all this, it isn't surprising that the New Year started with further selling, but the intensity of it was exacerbated by the Chinese mishandling of the attempted weakening of the renmimbi, which together with the 'circuit breaker' caused panic.

The Chinese have now learnt their lesson, and a recovery is likely after NFP regardless of the data, taking DAX up to the trend-line and, not too unlikely, a bit above until selling pressure resumes.

In summary: Those who move the markets using Central Bank money need time to get in and out of their positions. December indicated that they don't see much of an upside, at least until 9500 is tested. The Chinese upset their plans for off-loading volumes at decent prices - thus up we go before continuation.
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  • #18,354
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:33am Jan 8, 2016 5:33am
Quoting Pattrader
{quote} short @10057 tp9965 sl @50% Fib 10090
close @9999 +58
Trade what you see not what you think,..happy trading
  • #18,355
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:33am Jan 8, 2016 5:33am
Quoting letscry
{quote} well they r highly orrelated and volumes at us are much higher than in germany i guess so i think dow and sp futures moves effect dax in real time trading. and as i said after 16540 was broken dax started to fall sharp 3 mins ago
Atm and on nfp day volumes are pretty pathetic at both dow & dax. sp is about 50% for this time of the day. Eurostoxx 50 seems to be leading.
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  • #18,356
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:39am Jan 8, 2016 5:39am
Quoting letscry
well they r highly orrelated...
I agree.
Quoting letscry
...volumes at us are much higher than in germany i guess so i think dow and sp futures moves effect dax in real time trading...
I've always wondered how it is..., true until NYSE open they are DOW and SP futures which happen to be traded not from the US as those folks are still sleeping, or it is the robots trading them? Maybe the folks from London they'd rather be positioning themselves in these US futures instead of the spot (and futures) DAX. However it's that I prefer taking trades in the one's market is open.
Quoting letscry
...as i said after 16540 was broken dax started to fall sharp 3 mins ago
I did not get this at the time as it was the 16640 near, maybe you had meant that. Anyways it broke down indeed.
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  • #18,357
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:48am Jan 8, 2016 5:48am
Support if it's going to come in should be around 944
  • #18,358
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:51am Jan 8, 2016 5:51am
Quoting medici
Slow markets waiting for NFP, so time for taking a look at the bigger picture. Ever since the April high, DAX has been in a downtrend capped by a trend-line that hasn't been broken except for December 2015. In spite of the peek above the trend-line, December was a sell-off month. The first half of the month saw strong selling, with low-volume recovery until Xmas, which took the index up to the 50% level of the current range, with resistance at the trend-line clearly noticeable. Further, if one examines the December volumes, volumes were lower on...
Nice analysis Medici
  • #18,359
  • Jan 8, 2016 5:58am Jan 8, 2016 5:58am
Quoting cat
{quote} Nice analysis Medici
agree
  • #18,360
  • Jan 8, 2016 6:18am Jan 8, 2016 6:18am
Quoting cat
{quote} Nice analysis Medici
double up.
Trade what you see not what you think,..happy trading
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