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  • #138,381
  • Jan 7, 2016 12:52am Jan 7, 2016 12:52am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} wow,, who would've thunk?
Totally unpredictable lol
  • #138,382
  • Jan 7, 2016 12:56am Jan 7, 2016 12:56am
Quoting TuTang
Would be interesting to look at sterling for a long-term trade in the next few QUARTERS.
Gonna bid sterling at 1.43 all the way down to 1.38
1.458 is still too soft to hold the thing
  • #138,383
  • Edited 1:54am Jan 7, 2016 1:42am | Edited 1:54am
Looks like the final bit of business from 1.1033 via the rate hike. Testing 1.0867 after the lower lows now after the former was initially resolved closer to the highs. Test of major support levels gave them that excuse I suppose.

Either way, DAX knocking on the crucial 9780 which may well put an end the equity sell-off on this side- intraday overshoots aside.
  • #138,384
  • Jan 7, 2016 1:44am Jan 7, 2016 1:44am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} wow,, who would've thunk?
All yours Gator !!!....Superb call on China.

++++++ +++++ +++++

Quoting sisse
. ..Early Alerts triggered!!!! in equities across the world. Nikkei, DAX, CAC, FTSE and now US equites .. S&P losing 1987.xx on t....will unlock sharp momentum down [check] to 1790.xx. There is very little in between to avoid a carnage[in play]...
uffff... A carnage !!! on the making. What a session(s). Another disaster overnight in Asia (China halted again) and Europe couldn't held the storm on the opining range.
Its becoming a memorable week for those on the equites ride. DAX -3.5% and counting ...

Oil also put a step down into the cliff and we are officially in panic mode and in no man land. If you didn't short from above there IS NO POINT IN trying to catch a falling knife neither chasing the move at these levels ... we are trading AIR in PANIC only majors forces will put a hard stop in here and I am not sure who want to be one who is going to step in from the big fishes ....

Euro getting bid after the sharp leg in European equites, and risk is making everybody run to cash as stopover. We got the retrace for the NFP play, well done for those who rode 1.073x. In my case, putting back Euro on sight for trading this week but for now the real party in the trading world is in equities and commodities.

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,385
  • Jan 7, 2016 2:51am Jan 7, 2016 2:51am
ARghghg reading this I regret closing that oil short!
  • #138,386
  • Jan 7, 2016 3:05am Jan 7, 2016 3:05am
Quoting hathor
Forex Factory: Avg Entry Long: 1.1101 Short: 1.0865 Bear retailers are in the money, so market makers should act soon imho.
Surprise!?
Price is now between long (~1.1) and short (~1.08) average.
f(z)=z2+c
  • #138,387
  • Jan 7, 2016 3:12am Jan 7, 2016 3:12am
Quoting sisse
{quote} All yours Gator !!!....Superb call on China. ++++++ +++++ +++++ {quote} uffff... A carnage !!! on the making. What a session(s). Another disaster overnight in Asia (China halted again) and Europe couldn't held the storm on the opining range. Its becoming a memorable week for those on the equites ride. DAX -3.5% and counting ... Oil also put a step down into the cliff and we are officially in panic mode and in no man land. If you didn't short from above there IS NO POINT IN trying to catch a falling knife neither chasing the move at these...
Is dax n euro currently inverse correlated.? If dax keeps falling then would we expect euro to rally further up towards 1.10?
  • #138,388
  • Jan 7, 2016 3:32am Jan 7, 2016 3:32am
..and that was pretty much it for the European session...all eyes on NY for 4th consecutive day if US decide to play ball the carnage will continue to major proportions. US markets has refused to play risk and has held world markets so far but with Asia gone and Europe already gave up in the morning...US markets have a heavy burden to carry ....

Quoting monkey@forex
{quote} Is dax n euro currently inverse correlated.? If dax keeps falling then would we expect euro to rally further up towards 1.10?
Risk mate thats it. We are in a clear out in equites worldwide just sell equities hold cash and/or gold in the majors until the storm pass....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,389
  • Jan 7, 2016 3:58am Jan 7, 2016 3:58am
Quoting hathor
Bought 1.085xx EU. Big time frames still not aligning, M and W are buy, but Daily is still sell. So more down before up is in the cards for me.
Quoting hathor
{quote} Yesterday's close brought the Daily buy signal, so overall: Monthly - Buy at 1.07314 [March.2015] Weekly - Buy at 1.05919 [Nov.22.2015] Daily - Buy at 1.07797 [Jan.06.2015]....I've quit from predicting fundamentals long time ago. I act according to my method, it's shows buying time and I need to respect that, or I will be just a raft in the surging ocean. Good luck!
Since you don't talk Fundamentals lets talk Technicals.

I find very intriguing the way you read your charts and I don't really understand what is your time scope you are trading.

First, I find so hard, under any measurements, how do you interpret Monthly and Weekly BUY signals. Given that you are an experienced trader I think the issue it may be more about semantics more than actual TA.

When you refer to Monthly, weekly, etc buy are you referring to CANDLE by CANDLE base ? because that will explain a lot. Otherwise and since a few months ago I pretty much strongly disagree TA wise with your views on those TFs.

Second question and just for reference to understand where are you coming form. What +/- timeframe price RANGE are you referring when you make your calls? For example in your last call long 1.085x what is your range target? I mean after all we went to 1.071x and only now we are back to your reference level so for such a large margin I am guessing you are aiming to 1.24xx?? ...

It will be nice to know so we understand what are you looking for ...


Quoting troneras
...a little off topic, is about trade management
What can I say but very very very well done. In my books thats proper swing trading. Well done to stick to your guns (map) and play accordingly.

--> You are based in Europe so we have less restrictions than the Americans. In general my only advice on the money and trade management side is, for any instrument try to positions your swings with no less than 2 parts (3 but no more than 5).

--> Depending on the instrument and your leverage (in futures will be expensive and you will need a large account but in CFDs and FX will be easier):

  1. Clear your partial target first before scaling in, and always scale in after trailing and always deleveraging your initial size so (in a perfect trade ...wont happen often but for theoretical reference) by the time you clear your last target your last scaled in position should be only 25% (or 20% depending on how do you split your initial swing) max of your initial size.

I hope it helps...

Good job. Keep up the good work.

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,390
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:04am Jan 7, 2016 5:04am
fire will cure the death spiral

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...=yhoo.headline

"Oil markets have shrugged off the tension and have focused more on rising stockpiles in the U.S."
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,391
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:39am Jan 7, 2016 5:39am
Quoting sisse
..and that was pretty much it for the European session...all eyes on NY for 4th consecutive day if US decide to play ball the carnage will continue to major proportions. US markets has refused to play risk and has held world markets so far but with Asia gone and Europe already gave up in the morning...US markets have a heavy burden to carry .... {quote} Risk mate thats it. We are in a clear out in equites worldwide just sell equities hold cash and/or gold in the majors until the storm pass.... sisse
Thank u, ur s&p carnage path...u said 1790 in play...r u sure u didn't mean 1890 in play?
  • #138,392
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:42am Jan 7, 2016 5:42am
Quoting monkey@forex
{quote} Thank u, ur s&p carnage path...u said 1790 in play...r u sure u didn't mean 1890 in play?
haha, u can bet hes sure
  • #138,393
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:48am Jan 7, 2016 5:48am
monkey@forex,

He is more than sure and has been referencing this 179X for awhile now.

sisse or chester123,

What is the meaning that "Euro is moving as collateral but the Minutes.....We are aligning to trap some softs hands before NFP ....?

EURO moving collateral .......meaning since Equities unwinding, oil dropping into abyss and China that Cash going into EU as a better choice than DAX?

and, aligning to trap some "soft hands" before NFP. Soft hands meaning Strong Money is in the SHORTS and soft hands are those trying to put money into EU which is driving it up? Sorry, but asking an elementary question I know but want to make sure I understand terminology or reference. Thanks

I will be looking for a SHORT around .0925 if we get there(would prefer .097X). We passed my FLIP zone .0808 but only looking to SHORT for NFP play and MID TERM LEG position. However Gator still sees .1086 as VALID
  • #138,394
  • Jan 7, 2016 5:53am Jan 7, 2016 5:53am
All eyes with NY. No new updates (same risk/panic in play) on the equities and commodities front for the opening. However Euro entering in interesting levels. 1.086x holding the opening range unlocks 1.064x for a NFP play selloff in equities.

Quoting monkey@forex
{quote} Thank u, ur s&p carnage path...u said 1790 in play...r u sure u didn't mean 1890 in play?
1911.xx for this leg and yes 1790.xx for the mid term move (to set the low of this year Q1/ early Q2) ...dont have much at 1890.xx....

Quoting The Fool
fire will cure the death spiral http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...=yhoo.headline "Oil markets have shrugged off the tension and have focused more on rising stockpiles in the U.S."
WAR is coming this year, no doubt about it ...we have been building for RISK since last year .... this noise from Iran and the Saudis sounds like a 'perfect' fabricate noise with OIL in on the brink ....nevertheless and sadly WAR and RISK are coming this year ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,395
  • Jan 7, 2016 6:00am Jan 7, 2016 6:00am
Quoting TuTang
{quote} Totally unpredictable lol
china devalue may now have the opposite correlation on china importers such as wallmart etc.. cheap oil will help wallmart types. also killing exporters to china like cat
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #138,396
  • Jan 7, 2016 6:17am Jan 7, 2016 6:17am
Quoting IMARICH1
What is the meaning that "Euro is moving as collateral but the Minutes.....We are aligning to trap some softs hands before NFP ....?
--> What is the meaning that "Euro is moving as collateral

 

  1. It just an expression that means that the pair was not really moving by its direct underlying reasons but from external short term forces in correlated markets that are weighting heavier than the fundamental reason on the underlying.
  2. This usually happens when you have major events that just sweep the board. The easiest example to understand this is a very healthy and strong company in Stock XYX selling off because a general equites selloff .... meaning even if the underlying financial of a company [stock XYZ] are super good and healthy its get carried away in the short term by external forces ...


-->We are aligning to trap some softs hands before NFP

 

  1. Check our previous conversations related to this....soft hands means in general money that is directly below the main swing in the food chain that are always jumping on every attempt to grab the ultimate highs and lows of a swing (the early birds).

  1. This refers to proper money that can propel proper swing moves when they are right or when they get trapped not to those 5 minuters or micro intraday traders. As a swinger you don't really care about them as they are way below the food chain and have their own predators spanking them every day in an out (algos, market makers, etc).


In simple words, soft hands/early birds are calling the bottom 1.073x/5x (for a swing 1.094x -> 1.108x) a tick below the 1.08xx handle from now till NFP will make them hesitate and we will start seeing covering , a run below will start the stop domino and add momentum, etc ...this process is call it getting trap ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,397
  • Jan 7, 2016 6:27am Jan 7, 2016 6:27am
Good thing those early birds have a 120 pip cushion.
  • #138,398
  • Jan 7, 2016 6:31am Jan 7, 2016 6:31am
Quoting sisse
All eyes with NY. No new updates (same risk/panic in play) on the equities and commodities front for the opening. .................sadly WAR and RISK are coming this year ... sisse
.....it is sad, but "Life is Suffering." said the Buddha. Otoh, Confucius said "He who pick bottom have smelly finger.".....so I have to wonder if $32.1 is going to be low water for wti for some time to come? US equities will bounce with oil....btfd not a question of if? but of when?....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,399
  • Jan 7, 2016 6:37am Jan 7, 2016 6:37am
sisse,

Thanks for the great explanation and I am sure others appreciated the detailed way you explain. Makes PERFECT sense and I can honestly say I probably had this bad habit and why I got trapped into trades.

At any degree, I am looking to take a position. Was looking for .0924 area but may have to settle at the .087X/4X handle. Waiting to see how NY responds.
  • #138,400
  • Jan 7, 2016 6:43am Jan 7, 2016 6:43am
Quoting Pharm0r
Good thing those early birds have a 120 pip cushion.
well you are being generous in my books ... the break intraday happened around 1.078x (which is the level to track for the NFP W roll) so in reality they are just holding the 1.08xx handle (50 ticks is not that much of a cushion when failure is +250 ticks away with potential ext to +500) ...

In any case, yes they are decently covered for now but at least we got the retrace short term for those of us who cleared 1.073x and want to get back in business with the Euro ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
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