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  • #138,341
  • Jan 5, 2016 8:22am Jan 5, 2016 8:22am
Quoting IMARICH1
... I would have known the direction SHORT TERM. I will wait! Thanks again sisse for the insight as I watch DAILY for your input!!! And, I am ready for any lashings in mistakes made if I exited to soon or with my bad thinking I shared here! All the Best to you!
I am glad you were in the money.

Regarding your questions. I wont give you my or a bias as it will defeat the whole point of this chat. I would just remind you to some of the discussion we had last month about Mapping a trade & Timing.

So on the one hand you know by now that this move hasnt change anything on the mid term swing, has it? but you also want to FADE and go long for a potential short term move (the reasons are irrelevant) so let me just remind you this: (please read the entire posts again, the previous and the the one that followed...

Quoting sisse
3. Timing
--> The third key point on properly mapping a trade is TIMING. Meaningnot what?, why?, where? or how? but WHEN to trade the areas in the map.
--> For the purpose of this post I will just focus on mapping macro direction for timing not in the inner flows (thats for another chat). In general, we can divide the triggers for timing in 3 categories:
So you want to fade the move?
First and the most important. What is your risk? did you already map your risk before even looking at time or TA or FA or whatever? Is the risk of your stop worth the trade?
What is your potential actual map?
What is your event trigger this week for timing? or you again just want to step in blindly for the just in case?
So if you know your potential event trigger? how would you plan the trade in advance with the sessions and mini potentials movers in between ?

You don't need to reply in public. These questions are for your eyes only ...My 2 cents again, Focus and map risk first, risk second, risk third and then map your levels and timing for the move ...

GL

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,342
  • Jan 5, 2016 8:57am Jan 5, 2016 8:57am
Quoting Pharm0r
Looking for GU to bounce anywhere from here to 1.4620 Numbers I'm looking for are 1.47304, 1.46394, 1.46207 Would like to short a bounce above 1.5491, and hold for the year. I've got some targets between 1.6430 and 1.6440, which can be looked to if we bounce at either of the red numbers above. 2016 goal is to continue the trend, but take half as many trades. 25-50 a year would be quite nice. The spammer doesn't belong here. Was made very clear some years ago.
First trade of 2016 in
  • #138,343
  • Edited 10:37am Jan 5, 2016 10:03am | Edited 10:37am
I am up to answering as this may help others. My answers are at the bottom but wanted your TIMING info here as a reference for others and my reference to it in my answers. I will be waiting until tomorrow to look for a position if one appears. May have to wait until Thurs to position for Non-Farm.

REFERENCE:
3. Timing

--> The third key point on properly mapping a trade is TIMING. Meaning not what?, why?, where? or how? but WHEN to trade the areas in the map.

-->If you have been long enough in the business you will know that market direction (any underlying) is defined by major fundamentals (call them supply and demand factors, valuations, or what have you its irrelevant for this conversation) while the inner moves (flows/waves/legs, etc) in between are given by different factors (minor reports, pure speculative forces, taking profits, algos, etc etc).

--> For the purpose of this post I will just focus on mapping macro direction for timing not in the inner flows (thats for another chat). In general, we can divide the triggers for timing in 3 categories:

  1. Externalities. These event are random in nature and is nothing you can do about that but have your stop always in place. Usually (but not always) are related on risk-off events (an earthquake, terrorist, a weather event,etc) There is nothing to do with these events and tracking 24/7 the makers wont help either so they are basically taken as unexpected risk factors.
  2. On the other side are MAJOR EVENTS | GAME CHANGER NEWS. These are the bread and butter for swinging a market because even if you are not planning to ride a whole mid term leg, etc they will give you DIRECTION. Typical examples of these events in currencies (are monetary policies, QE, RATES, BANDS, major economic shock in the economy, major political/wars issues, etc )

    1. The moment you 'define' macro direction you have solved 80% of the problems in trading !!! (wonder why some of us expend more time talking about this than why the micro pipet trigger or RSI, MA cross or E/W wave ASDFG...etc).
    2. More importantly, these events can define direction that can last months meaning once you are aligned you DON'T have to analyze the market bias every second H1 bar allowing you to trade the inner legs with CONFIDENCE and avoid fading the unnecessary retraces/pullbacks.




  3. The scheduled reports/events/announcements. The events just provide the ebb and flow of a leg. They are not meant to be treated or read it in isolation as they represent a series/trend in time. It applies differently depending on the instruments you are trading but for this chat lets use currencies. For example a single NFP number(or any) or as basic as today's German Flash Manufacturing PMI, etc. Those series of numbers represent and mark trends and conditions that will mark change of direction when they consistently start pointing to the other side, etc.

Quote
So on the one hand you know by now that this move hasn't change anything on the mid term swing, has it?

Nothing has changed my MID TERM view (Weeks/Months)=SHORT

Quote
So you want to fade the move?
Yes!

Quote
First and the most important
Quote
. What is your risk? did you already map your risk before even looking at time or TA or FA or whatever? Is the risk of your stop worth the trade?
Yes. And, No:R:R .84/1 I am risking 282 pips or $282 ($1 pip) to gain $232 (.84cents a pip). If calculated correctly with current price around .0738. This would tell me to wait and get a better position lower to FADE or wait for a higher Price to SHORT.

Quote
What is your potential actual map?
What is your event trigger this week for timing? or you again just want to step in blindly for the just in case?
Posted MAP and news on Wednesday: ADP-non farm, ISM (TIMING #3 SECTION) and FOMC Meeting Minutes (TIMING #2 SECTION); then, Thurs: Unemployment claims and Fri: Non-Farm.

Quote
So if you know your potential event trigger? how would you plan the trade in advance with the sessions and mini potentials movers in between ?

All this said, I should wait to position after news tomorrow, and more importantly after NY digest it. It will give me better direction (intra- day trade) for a FADE (.097X) or MID TERM LEG continued SHORT (.0530/16), (.0458). Doesn't give me the best REWARD but more SOLID Reward and less RISK.

Did I at least do average here sisse?

Thanks!
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  • #138,344
  • Jan 5, 2016 2:01pm Jan 5, 2016 2:01pm
Quoting sisse
{quote}GL sisse
On a scale of 1-10....how firm are you on that GU forecast?

1.7064 is still in the fight

It'll have to beat a heavy hitter norm in 1.5492
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  • #138,345
  • Jan 5, 2016 2:41pm Jan 5, 2016 2:41pm
Quoting USD-Bear
can't manage to get those last 3 entries in, well maybe got to play with what I've got, what do you think sisse? BUND D1: {image}


Mr. Bear, still playing those 10ybunds?
  • #138,346
  • Jan 5, 2016 3:23pm Jan 5, 2016 3:23pm
Quoting sisse
...and that will do it ...For those on the Euro trade: Double clearing on the test 1.073x. Clearing final target on the hikes bumpy and delayed (cause of holidays) short term play (1.103x) and also clearing first soft target in the mid term swing (1.097x for those following ... IMARICH?).... China decided to flood the markets agains so if NY refuse to play ball we are pretty much set for intraday chop zone till NFP.... sisse
Hello sisse, I am still in the trade, sorry if I don't give you more talk, but I write very slow in English and sometimes I don't remember what I was writing when I find the words.

A question regarding FA, if US equities loose 1987, could this cause a mayor rally in the dollar? I know this question can be obvious for some, but I ended reading Trading Intermarket Analysis by John J Murphy yesterday, and I think I need to read it again two or three times before I can grasp some knowledge.

Also looking for positioning before NFP. I think we can reach 1.083, if we get there I will short again, SL 1.106, targeting 1.034 with extension to 1.015.

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Another question, a little off topic, is about trade management. I have moved my first stop to 1.106 as I think that level is locked (My initial plan was more dovish than current) and my second order to BE as I want to scale-in the trade without risking more. How do you see this trade management? Seems ok for me, but maybe I am risking two good positions for 3 risky ones?

Many questions, thanks sisse and all, and my apologies to the fool if he doesn't like what I write.
Live and Keep Calm
  • #138,347
  • Jan 5, 2016 3:37pm Jan 5, 2016 3:37pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} On a scale of 1-10....how firm are you on that GU forecast? 1.7064 is still in the fight It'll have to beat a heavy hitter norm in 1.5492 {image}
Which one? the outlook for the year?
"... Sterling may leave the super noisy chop zone and become one of the best trading opportunities for late 2016 (and beyond). Among major currencies this is the only pair with Long Term levels in play for the yearly close.."

Right now 9.5 out of 10 for long term play. TA wise

For the late 2016 play only 6 out of 10 until BOE hike (or not) rates earlier Q2/Q3. NO hikes or soft BOE and Brexit and we will talking about parity sooner than you expect...

The major mover in GU comes later in the year for now dollar ruling until BOE gets into play ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,348
  • Jan 5, 2016 5:29pm Jan 5, 2016 5:29pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Which one? the outlook for the year? "... Sterling may leave the super noisy chop zone and become one of the best trading opportunities for late 2016 (and beyond). Among major currencies this is the only pair with Long Term levels in play for the yearly close.." Right now 9.5 out of 10 for long term play. TA wise For the late 2016 play only 6 out of 10 until BOE hike (or not) rates earlier Q2/Q3. NO hikes or soft BOE and Brexit and we will talking about parity sooner than you expect... The major mover in GU comes later in the year for now...
Thanks for clearing up, was directed at the outlook for the year- and more or less whether you were flexible on it.....I missed the "late 2016" part

EU still holding on for 1.2471 as well...missed that trade unfortunately
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  • #138,349
  • Jan 5, 2016 6:17pm Jan 5, 2016 6:17pm
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} First trade of 2016 in
Awwww yisssss
But the timing of this trade is suspicious. Its too early@@
  • #138,350
  • Jan 5, 2016 11:01pm Jan 5, 2016 11:01pm
Quoting chester123
{quote} Mr. Bear, still playing those 10ybunds?
yes chester, 4 shorts in now, 3 (159,5 159,7 and 160) still pending, it will be a long wait unless 161 throws me out
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,351
  • Jan 6, 2016 2:29am Jan 6, 2016 2:29am
Quoting Pharm0r
...EU still holding on for 1.2471 as well...missed that trade unfortunately {image}
Out of range, out of map, out of scope....

Your are assuming 1.052x will hold (I would recommend you to track the Q chart for such a level to hold) but despite the direction being right or wrong, It's not a trade I (or any sane trader) would ever consider because the time scope of such a move ....if you want to long euro that range you will be better investing in Euro denominate fix assets to profit with a +3/5 years investment horizon instead on a spot forex trade.

Quoting IMARICH1
Posted MAP and news on Wednesday: ADP-non farm, ISM (TIMING #3 SECTION) and FOMC Meeting Minutes (TIMING #2 SECTION); then, Thurs: Unemployment claims and Fri: Non-Farm. !
Ufff...you sound in the right track but rather on confuse trading mode ... We can chat later about the other points but let me give you some more prescriptive comments on the report sides because is prolly the harder to grasp if you are newish using the. I think you are wrongly assuming the upcoming events are going to be as linear, clear and tradable as the last HIKES play in Dec.

There are at least 2 things you want to track: One is what is the macro trend in reports and if markets have any major expectations in a particular report/number.

When I talk about expectations I am not talking about the small column in the FF Calendar with the forecast number btw....

For this week for example the 2 obvious reports to follow are the Minutes and NFP. Try doing this exercise:

--> Minutes
Why is important? Well no point stating the obvious. Fed hikes last meeting and we want to read details to get any new hints on how gradual normalisation will be and any out of range comments or suggestions on macro expectations and risk perception.

Trend: N/A
Expectations: Use common sense first. We had hike last month. A major short term short-circuit will only happen (with this or any news like this) if we get something NOT expected from the Minutes.

In this case, there is very little room for surprises, maybe a super dovish hint and/or outlook or super hawkish outlook that will move the expectations on how gradual the next hikes will be, etc. But in general anything else will just be CONTINUATION.

--> NFP
Trend: We are in a 6 years solid trend and in the shorter term we had major overshoots in the last couple of months. We had hikes last month based on Employment reaching target. What does it mean for trading?

  1. Well it means that even if we get a soft number that could have a knee jerk reaction intraday in reality WE HAVE NOTHING in play from the employment front.
  2. Also on the Hikes side, we just got the increase, so only a super uber huge overshoot (not expected) may shift expectation toward the next hike is going to be as early as March but in all other cases, this NFP is not that 'important' from the FA side.

Expectations: Markets are expecting inline or slightly better (seasonal factors) report so only a major overshoot/undershoot will make markets clear/add to positions. Anything else is just the usual flows.

I am not going to continue one by one but you get thee point....

The best advice is keep tracking them and discussing whenever you can until 'it click' It will take time to get in sync with them but once you get there you will be able to quickly understand what markets are looking for and more importantly their macro trends.

I highly recommend you to start learning with the major reports ONLY (especially in a core instrument like the Euro/USD) instead of focusing on the minor reports as they are harder to digest for trading in the short term and require a bit more experience and understanding of economics. What i mean try to get in Synch with the main FA and macro reports in the pair.

As starting point and as final hint. Right now for this week, on the macro front:

  1. US Manufacturing reports are probably more important to track than employment given the Chinese jitters and the softening of manufacturing worldwide in the last few months.
  2. On the employment front, the only issue is keeping the solid trend and tangential track any major overshoots to gauge hikes normalisation speed and/or undershoots in the next couple of reports to gauge a potential slowdown cycle in equities worldwide.
  3. On the rates front, obviously track the Minutes but in general don't have anything important in play this time (beyond intraday knee jerk reactions) except confirming what we already know from DEC (gradual hikes, slightly dovish FED). Only a major unexpected hint on the Minutes will short-circuit the flows as markets will get caught on the wrong foot)...

I hope it helps ...

sisse

Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,352
  • Jan 6, 2016 2:36am Jan 6, 2016 2:36am
fully loaded

BUND D1:
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Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,353
  • Jan 6, 2016 3:17am Jan 6, 2016 3:17am
Quoting USD-Bear
{quote} yes chester, 4 shorts in now, 3 (159,5 159,7 and 160) still pending, it will be a long wait unless 161 throws me out
Ive been watching them for some time too. But havent entered yet. Dont have the guts right now cuz I think the equities are gonna break down (argument just based on technical weakness in the charts) = bunds gonna overshoot the 161 lvl. SP to 1790.xx, DAX 93XX. AND while the western equities may have some floor, CHNcomp looks like the floor is somewhere way over the rainbow so if the 90xx is gone = I bet its gonna be wild ride. Hope chinese government has enough shoots to manupulate it. Wonder if anyone in the history won over the makret - one thing is to regulate the market, other is to try to rule it - bet even the chinese cummunist-capitalist hybrid is gonna get badly burnt just wonder how to make money on it
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  • #138,354
  • Jan 6, 2016 3:37am Jan 6, 2016 3:37am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Ive been watching them for some time too. But havent entered yet. Dont have the guts right now cuz I think the equities are gonna break down (argument just based on technical weakness in the charts) = bunds gonna overshoot the 161 lvl. SP to 1790.xx, DAX 93XX. AND while the western equities may have some floor, CHNcomp looks like the floor is somewhere way over the rainbow so if the 90xx is gone = I bet its gonna be wild ride. Hope chinese government has enough shoots to manupulate it. Wonder if anyone in the history won over the makret...
1. yes, trying to bed on a trend turn always risky and Oil pushing hard on the downside (low inflation) presses the market up. On the other side Oil imho near a turning point (the why still to be determent. We have a more or less protection level @ 0% and it hard to find investors not CB, willing to accept 0,5% for 10 years.
2. I am not so bearish on DAX in current market environment.
3. For China, I look at Hong Kong, where valuation arguments should put some support, with a P/E ratio of 7 and dividends at 4,5% risks there also are acceptable imo.

Main thing atm is Oil and inflation considerations....
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,355
  • Jan 6, 2016 5:29am Jan 6, 2016 5:29am
...another bloody day in equites but more important ..Early Alerts triggered!!!! in equities across the world. Nikkei, DAX, CAC, FTSE and now US equites for the open losing foot with HEAVY losses. S&P losing 1987.xx on the Week with the Minutes/NFP combo will unlock sharp momentum down to 1790.xx. There is very little in between to avoid a carnage...

All eyes on the the open with US equities in full control until the Minutes.

On the rest of the board OIL one more time on the brink and is barely holding. Eyes on 33.9x. Losing the handle will unlock PANIC again for an even sharper exhaustion leg down. There is nothing in between on the FA side (only war in the M.EAST can help OIL in the short term) and in the TA side below it looks absolutely naked till $26.xx ...

On the Euro, not much to see as it is in the back sit of this moves. As long as risk in equites is in the air, dollar will be on BID as short term stopover before markets find foot. Tracking closely the open today. NY playing ball and we may get some memorable moves this week...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,356
  • Jan 6, 2016 5:52am Jan 6, 2016 5:52am
Quoting sisse
...another bloody day in equites but more important ..Early Alerts triggered!!!! in equities across the world. Nikkei, DAX, CAC, FTSE and now US equites for the open losing foot with HEAVY losses. S&P losing 1987.xx on the Week with the Minutes/NFP combo will unlock sharp momentum down to 1790.xx. There is very little in between to avoid a carnage... All eyes on the the open with US equities in full control until the Minutes. On the rest of the board OIL one more time on the brink and is barely holding. Eyes on 33.9x. Losing the handle will unlock...
​thank you so much for update and on time analysis,would you please let me know about your Gold analysis too
​
  • #138,357
  • Jan 6, 2016 6:09am Jan 6, 2016 6:09am
What a way for the world to start off the year
  • #138,358
  • Jan 6, 2016 6:15am Jan 6, 2016 6:15am
sisse,

Thanks so much for the plethora of info from a FA standpoint. I do see how the EXPECTATIONS and MACRO TREND work in-line or not so much in the Short Term and how that impacts market. I believe I should focus on the MACRO news more such as Section 2 on TIMING which is more about CB, FOMC, BOE ect.....right now RATE HIKES or NO RATE HIKES are the key areas of interest in the markets.

I do see how MANUFACTURING would be more of an issue now instead of Employment numbers.

Thanks for the time you INVEST here! So valuable to me and others I am sure!

2 Questions:

1) I MAPPED my Levels and posted them. Are they wrong? If so, how do you find your levels on a WEEKLY or MONTHLY chart? I know you have FA levels on your MAPS that mark movements in Market due to a NEWS event. But, I wondered if there is something I should do to my MAP on the levels I found as it is pointless to have Levels that have no meaning. What I am trying to say is that I use your levels to trump mine when you post them and I would like to not depend on you posting them and become better at it as a trader.

2) I know this will frustrate you so I apologize.....I am going to "assume" this is how you would you try and position yourself for this coming week or days. I am assuming only to LEARN where my errors are.

I know you use the R:R principle; but, I am assuming you would wait to look for a position after the MAIN (MACRO TREND)news like Manufacturing and MINUTES before taking a position. Then, once you did and understood the "SPEED" Macro Trend may have, you would determine whether to wait on NON-FARM news/expectations to further allow a better position or be positioned before NON-FARM if MANUFACTURING and MINUTES are in-line with MACRO TREND. I understand how Non-Farm is not going to be a game changer with Rates (may slow them down-UNDERSHOOT and slow EU for a ride down but not the overall MACRO TREND/MID TERM LEG)since Non-Farm has been trending consistently. I am sidelined for now as I "assume" Macro TREND will presume LOWER; but, some surprises could occur and give me a better opportunity to position for a BETTER SHORT. In other words, do you see PA going back to .0978-.1060 before a trip lower to test support at .0516 or even .0460.

I enjoy seeing your map and trying to align my homework with it! It helps and is appreciated! Thanks so much for visiting this thread and sharing your intellect with us!
  • #138,359
  • Edited 6:48am Jan 6, 2016 6:37am | Edited 6:48am
Quoting IMARICH1
2 Questions: 1) I MAPPED my Levels and posted them. Are they wrong? If so, how do you find your levels on a WEEKLY or MONTHLY chart? I know you have FA levels on your MAPS that mark movements in Market due to a NEWS event. But, I wondered if there is something I should do to my MAP on the levels I found as it is pointless to have Levels that have no meaning. What I am trying to say is that I use your levels to trump mine when you post them and I would like to not depend on you posting them and become better at it as a trader. 2) I know this will...
Look you are going in the wrong direction with this. You wont go anywhere if I chew it down for you and you just follow as sheep my trades, my views or etc...

--> Forget about my levels, my positions, my views. I am only analysing what you post without bias. I am not judging if you are right or wrong or if you TA is good or bad.

--> You posted a chart and right after you describe a potential trade that goes 180 degrees against your chart. You showed a price just crossing YOUR flip line (how do you get that line or if its is right or wrong is irrelevant) for a 400 ticks to your next line,. A few words below you asked me how do you fade the move against your chart.... and I am just wondering WTF?

---> Forget about TA or FA but common sense first. Price just crossed your flip line to the short side and you want to be long?. But not only that you want to be long without any support on your chart ???? Whats the point of mapping a trade in a chart if you are just randomly going to jump in and out in between without respecting any of your areas of trading???

Again i am not implying you are right or wrong on going long I am only saying if you are going to MAP a TRADE, you MUST TRADE your MAP. Otherwise you will never be consistent in your analysis.

--> Final point, put your TA in perspective. I don't care what you use as TA but put your range in perspective. We are nearly 300 ticks down for the week so basically you are trying to call the LOW of the week with your trade against your mid term trend and against and avalanche in equites worldwide with a puny 1.18 r:r.

So sure you can fade it but whats the point of your analysis and HOW on earth do you expect to develop a positive consistent system if you are aiming to trade everything that moves without any constrains....

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,360
  • Edited 8:15am Jan 6, 2016 7:32am | Edited 8:15am
sisse,

I am not wanting to go LONG for a position against my MID TERM LEG; however, I did suggest FADING this move from .073x as I was looking at the possibility of a bounce HIGHER. I realize Equities across the Globe are unraveling and may not allow for such a move. I am just trying to take a position the best R:R. My current MAP I posted uses the .097X area as RESISTENCE and .0518 area for SUPPORT. Each of these are 250 pips or so away.

I was trying to stay of the market and wait for a better price; however, it appears you may be thinking it is more foolish to believe PRICE would even entertain the .097X level now.

I am mainly trying to get in another position for a SHORT. My FLIP area is in the .0808 area as this is where I see SUPPORT/RESISTANCE from a MONTHLY/WEEKLY standpoint. It does me no good entering a SHORT where we are now even though below my FLIP if PA may go HIGHER for a better R:R and price.

My question was regarding position if you are not in one. Would you wait on Manufacturing data news and FOMC minutes to determine a position yourself after this news prior to Non-Farm or wait and do nothing until this news is absorbed. I only see FOMC minutes creating a little rumble in the MACRO TREND if more dovish to drive PA back to .097X area. Otherwise, I look at my .0808 area as the level to target for a SHORT position to the .0516/.0460 area.

***London closed HIGHER today than yesterday (.0718 or so yesterday I believe). Would this indicate anything as I never know how you determine what the ROLL means. I know .097X used to be a number to watch for the ROLL. This week its been .073X. Today, London is closing Higher.

Thanks
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