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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,301
  • Edited 8:07am Dec 31, 2015 7:55am | Edited 8:07am
sisse,

Thanks for the detailed analysis from a Fundamental side. I am amazed how much you are able to tap into all the information from a world monetary/economical point of view. It has been a very interesting read with the map you have put into play for 2016.

Curious, do you see a retest in the EU/USD to the Lower range of .0750/30 to bring in Buyers with a possible last leg UP to the the top of the range of .1080/60 before DOLLAR strength sets in? I was pondering whether January will be a chop zone in this range or if you see early Jan being a test of the Lower range to test the bottom of the .0516/.0425 handle.

Again my FLIP area is .0808 which has been a place that has seen support/resistance for DEC along with other MONTHS as well. But, perhaps my FLIP area should be more in line with .0750/35 of your past posts still. Any thoughts?

Again, thanks for taking time to share your insight into these markets and coaching. All the best to you! Wishing you health and well wishes. Happy New Year and good days ahead for 2016!
  • #138,302
  • Dec 31, 2015 10:17am Dec 31, 2015 10:17am
Quoting sisse
Sterling may leave the .........chop zone and become one of the best trading opportunities for late 2016 ......(YES PARITY) ........end of Sterling as major currency in World markets. .................. JPY....start to fade down below 120.xx for a sharp momentum leg toward 100.xx that will leave us chopping around till the end 2016. .............................-->...
Good job, sisse ----- yes re: GBP as one of the huge trading opportunities for 2016. I don't trade pure currencies much anymore but that one will be too good to miss....JPY also looks like it has potential to break range and make some big moves back toward yen strength. In the EM's, too much to watch really, but one not to miss is Brazil, with impeachment of Dilma Rousseff to be decided in the Spring....could see very volatile moves in the real before/after that drama.....equity traders have liquid instruments to use to catch that volatility, for me, mostly EWZ and PBR.....

Have a safe New Year's Eve ya'll and a prosperous 2016!
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,303
  • Dec 31, 2015 3:46pm Dec 31, 2015 3:46pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Don't have China in the cards. Quite the opposite I have China starting to find foot late 2016. Oil $14 a bit a overstretch TA wise in my books ($26 will do the trick) but agree with the leg down. UJ yes agree we are set for a major mid/long term pullback. However DOLLAR strength will keep things on check/wide chop early in the year. ------ ------- +++++ Yearly review / overview +++++ 11. Currencies Macro Expectations 2016 ---> GBP ...".the beginning of the end in the old empire" For the first time in nearly 6 years Sterling may leave the...
Sisse thanks for detailed analysis and all your posts. Have a nice year mate.
  • #138,304
  • Dec 31, 2015 7:18pm Dec 31, 2015 7:18pm
OK bye and happy New Year
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #138,305
  • Dec 31, 2015 11:07pm Dec 31, 2015 11:07pm
Quoting The Fool
a "short build" is just a way of describing a smaller number for the amount of oil reported going into storage - i.e., storage is "built up"....they say the same thing about natgas sometimes. So, if there had been a smaller amount of oil into storage, the implication would be there was more demand for oil, or less supply of oil, or both, and that the oil price should therefore go up. But that was not the case, as we saw, and the oil price went down. Regarding the consequential increase in consumers' disposable income and a bullish effect on equities,...
You are one smart fool.
Thanks for the insights.

And yes we are Borg.
Resistance is futile.
But you will not be assimilated.

Live long and prosper in the coming New Year Fool and good luck with your trading.
May the Forex be with you.
  • #138,306
  • Dec 31, 2015 11:09pm Dec 31, 2015 11:09pm
Have a nice year everyone.GL in 2016
  • #138,307
  • Edited 12:43pm Jan 1, 2016 12:27pm | Edited 12:43pm
LaForge is a good read at Wells Fargo.

https://www.wellsfargoadvisors.com/m...eal-assets.htm

"Fundamentals, technicals, and history suggest that most of oils price damage has likely been seen. The 65 percent oil-price decline is now the third worst since the early 1980s. We believe, supply and demand globally is starting to balance. The 2008 lows of $31 a barrel should offer good technical support. We expect oil to begin moving toward the mid-$40 per barrel range, once year-end tax loss selling concludes, seasonality factors fade, and volatility subsides."

I don't agree with his statement there about global supply/demand balancing.....I think that remains to be seen.
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,308
  • Jan 2, 2016 10:05pm Jan 2, 2016 10:05pm
Lol fundamentals suggest that?
  • #138,309
  • Jan 2, 2016 10:12pm Jan 2, 2016 10:12pm
Looking for GU to bounce anywhere from here to 1.4620

Numbers I'm looking for are

1.47304, 1.46394, 1.46207

Would like to short a bounce above 1.5491, and hold for the year. I've got some targets between 1.6430 and 1.6440, which can be looked to if we bounce at either of the red numbers above.

2016 goal is to continue the trend, but take half as many trades. 25-50 a year would be quite nice.

The spammer doesn't belong here. Was made very clear some years ago.
  • #138,310
  • Jan 2, 2016 10:39pm Jan 2, 2016 10:39pm
Quoting Pharm0r
Lol fundamentals suggest that?
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kyle-b...jVfMQRzZWMDc2M-

your fellow Texan KB will be on the tv tomorrow maybe he can straighten things out
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,311
  • Jan 2, 2016 10:45pm Jan 2, 2016 10:45pm
Quoting The Fool
{quote} http://finance.yahoo.com/news/kyle-b...jVfMQRzZWMDc2M- your fellow Texan KB will be on the tv tomorrow maybe he can straighten things out
Perhaps he will give Ali al-Naimi a call

I'm catching up to you...only 994 to go
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  • #138,312
  • Jan 2, 2016 11:31pm Jan 2, 2016 11:31pm
Oil the headliner in 2015 and 2016 likely be the same. If the Saudis are trying to (among other things) shake out the weak hand marginal US producers, well they are not quite there yet & you'd have to expect them to toe the line and try to get that next leg down sub $30 wti. Will take more time and there is no guarantee it will happen regardless. I am watching for a dip to low $30's in the near future (Jan/Feb no later), but I am leaning toward the Laforge/Kyle Bass camp (see above) and think wti will rise into a record US demand season in Q2/Q3. I am already positioning in USO call spreads targeting wti >$45 beginning the end of Q1. Q1/Q2 has seen wti gains for most of the 20 years shown in the attached monthly candle chart....
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"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,313
  • Jan 3, 2016 4:21am Jan 3, 2016 4:21am
Happy new year to all! Thank you all for your analysis, specially sisse as reading you is worth a cup of coffee or two. Following your advice I will start looking at GBPUSD, since I am trading I have always think it is overvalued, if the moment has come, welcome it is.
Live and Keep Calm
  • #138,314
  • Edited 4:35am Jan 3, 2016 4:21am | Edited 4:35am
Hello everyone, hope u all had great holiday and enjoy the start of new year Im glad to read the Sisses superd macro analysis - very informative and well-thought. Thank you!! And nice to see that It pretty much matches my future guesses!!

-----------------

On ground of all that was said here before + Sisse macro predictions - posting my update for DXY and newly my shoot for AUD/USD.

EUR/USD and DXY: for the whole info see my last post - 138,230 post in this thread.

Just technical updates as nothing has changed fundamentally:

Chart 1: DXY: dollar mid term swing up for Q1/Q2
Chart 2: it was suggested the correction would continue as shown by the arrows, which mostly worked = we did not get as high as suggested because 99,3 worked as resistence - its the 61,8 Fib of the post-ECB correction - and than 97,8 held and sent the DXY back up for yearly close.
Chart3: I keep my bullish view fundamentally of course and you can see just a suggestion how we gonna get up (hard to suggest some 1-5 structures in this state - so just use some of the short term swing Fib lvls) - the DEC high could be reached shortly before mid of JANUARY (hope NFP adds some fuel).

=) its pretty much analogical for EUR/USD

With AUD vs USD: I share sisses view and expect one more (final) mid term leg down during Q1/Q2 (dollar strength + if we get the capitulation move in commodities it would be super to be in as its really gonna juice those currencies) before the long term swing from april 2013 finds bottom in Q4 (approx.)

AUD/USD: using many Fibbs on many charts (one of them: chart 4) I always get something around these numbers: intermediate stop of the mid term swing: 0,675x final target of the mid term swing: 0,63xx and max extension: 2008 low.
On short term scale I was waiting for 0,737x area to watch for mid term short (chart 5) but the D1 and W1 close looks bearish. So anyone planning to trade this mid term swing down? How u gonna enter? Wait for 0,737x? Im not sure cuz that D1 close looks very persuasive to enter into short term swing down, which is most likely be start of another mid term swing down.

Any comments welcomed Have a great day everyone

P.S. Sisse: my broker is not capable of deleting those f**** 1H Sunday candels on D1 chart so just to note: I tried to get rid of them but Ill have to try more.... to change broker
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  • #138,315
  • Jan 3, 2016 7:10pm Jan 3, 2016 7:10pm
Quoting The Fool
your fellow Texan KB will be on the tv tomorrow maybe he can straighten things out
http://wallstreetweek.com/tags/kyle-...ips-episode-35
"If The Fool persists in his Folly he will become wise." - William Blake
  • #138,316
  • Jan 4, 2016 4:37am Jan 4, 2016 4:37am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} china collapse? uj 2500/5000 drop? unlikely, but Brent 14 handle?
china -7% atm today and trading halt stopped it..
will china use usd reserves again? will eu based margin calls pump eu, with eu funded trades?
yen gaining atm
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #138,317
  • Jan 4, 2016 5:00am Jan 4, 2016 5:00am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Don't have China in the cards. Quite the opposite I have China starting to find foot late 2016. Oil $14 a bit a overstretch TA wise in my books ($26 will do the trick) but agree with the leg down. UJ yes agree we are set for a major mid/long term pullback. However DOLLAR strength will keep things on check/wide chop early in the year. ------ ------- +++++ Yearly review / overview +++++ 11. Currencies Macro Expectations 2016 ---> GBP ...".the beginning of the end in the old empire" For the first time in nearly 6 years Sterling may leave the...
14, yeah its way out there.. at one time i heard the same about a 30 handle. tech wise 14.xx is valid for brent, although a 56$ dead cat should be considered. we both know oil will never reach 0. because people will not work/invest for free. charts or techs dont take this into consideration. the adjusted 0 is whatever the price is where people will work/produce the product. nobody knows that adjusted level. just 15 years ago it was at a 20 handle. that's about the time alan greenspan made a whore out the usd. and even before that the energy deficit raised oil from 8$.. that energy deficit is swinging toward those 8$ range..(some adjustment should make it higher, that higher point unknown) the point is, its above where it can go with techs pointing lower.

china is plain bullshit.. the next plan was to swap economy to a domestic one. while weaning them off the dependence of the west. wow, didnt the u.s. have that type of economy up till the last 40 years.. china w/o energy or commodities is phucked as a super economy power. it's all smoke and mirrors.. oil demand and many stocks will follow the china wagon out of town,
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #138,318
  • Jan 4, 2016 5:13am Jan 4, 2016 5:13am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} 14, yeah its way out there.. at one time i heard the same about a 30 handle. tech wise 14.xx is valid for brent, although a 56$ dead cat should be considered. we both know oil will never reach 0. because people will not work/invest for free. charts or techs dont take this into consideration. the adjusted 0 is whatever the price is where people will work/produce the product. nobody knows that adjusted level. just 15 years ago it was at a 20 handle. that's about the time alan greenspan made a whore out the usd. and even before that the energy...
no reason brent oil cant hit 14, with iran and the saudis not on the same page.. opec and even the saudis kingdom may have a serious test.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #138,319
  • Jan 4, 2016 7:40am Jan 4, 2016 7:40am
Quoting gatorinla
{quote} china -7% atm today and trading halt stopped it.. will china use usd reserves again? will eu based margin calls pump eu, with eu funded trades? yen gaining atm
Definitively the story of the day. What an opening for the year ....

Tracking closely NY reaction but if we get a second selloff round in China in only 6 months....

For now just trying to digest the massive moves and cautiously tracking further developments but "where there's smoke there's fire" a second consistent major selloff in China this month will make revaluate my views

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,320
  • Jan 4, 2016 7:55am Jan 4, 2016 7:55am
Bought 1.085xx EU.
Big time frames still not aligning, M and W are buy, but Daily is still sell. So more down before up is in the cards for me. Good luck all.
f(z)=z2+c
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