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Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

  • #18,221
  • Jan 5, 2016 8:28pm Jan 5, 2016 8:28pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} You would think that after the very average chinese economic data today from the world's no2 economy, that the 10,120pts interim low on the Dax should be taken out today.
Taiwan went back to low of the year where government intervened last time which makes me think that the DAX is going back to test the low where government intervened last time which is at about 9380. China is at half way point now between high and low of last 6 months. That would bring DAX to around 9800 or so. Maybe 150-200 point loss today
  • #18,222
  • Jan 5, 2016 9:14pm Jan 5, 2016 9:14pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Taiwan went back to low of the year where government intervened last time which makes me think that the DAX is going back to test the low where government intervened last time which is at about 9380. China is at half way point now between high and low of last 6 months. That would bring DAX to around 9800 or so. Maybe 150-200 point loss today
Very possible. I'm expecting the JPY to appreciate quite hard in this risk-off environment, and I can see an all mighty pullback on the Nikkei.
  • #18,223
  • Jan 5, 2016 10:06pm Jan 5, 2016 10:06pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Very possible. I'm expecting the JPY to appreciate quite hard in this risk-off environment, and I can see an all mighty pullback on the Nikkei.
Morgan Stanley might have been right when they predicted 112-115 for the YEN this year. GS on the other hand predicted 135-140. This is kind of odd though for it to be appreciating while the Euro and Yuan depreciate. I can see Japan complaining about weak Yuan down the road. Probably manipulated YEN to appreciate to have an excuse to complain about China's weakening Yuan. Export numbers are bad so it does not make sense for Japan's YEN to appreciate.
4th quarter earnings are usually the best for America but I don't expect them to be all that great this last quarter from 2015
  • #18,224
  • Jan 5, 2016 10:07pm Jan 5, 2016 10:07pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Very possible. I'm expecting the JPY to appreciate quite hard in this risk-off environment, and I can see an all mighty pullback on the Nikkei.
The other thing is, yesterday it was in the news that VW was being sued up to USD90Bn by the US Govt, and the price of VW dropped 5% yesterday, it will be interesting to see how VW can fund this, because their Mkt Cap is only EU62Bn currently, so its probably a good chance the fine will be negotiated lower. Now, when the VW scandal was originally released to the media, on Day 1, the market dropped heavily but then was bought up again; and it wasn't until Day 2, that's when the market really dropped and I lost out big time that day assuming the market had priced in the event. So be weary of Day 2 of such news.
  • #18,225
  • Jan 5, 2016 10:25pm Jan 5, 2016 10:25pm
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Morgan Stanley might have been right when they predicted 112-115 for the YEN this year. GS on the other hand predicted 135-140. This is kind of odd though for it to be appreciating while the Euro and Yuan depreciate. I can see Japan complaining about weak Yuan down the road. Probably manipulated YEN to appreciate to have an excuse to complain about China's weakening Yuan. Export numbers are bad so it does not make sense for Japan's YEN to appreciate. 4th quarter earnings are usually the best for America but I don't expect them to be all...
Yen appreciating in risk-off sentiment is classic market forces, as Yen is considered a safe-haven. Also, as the Japanese have carry-trades by borrowing heavily in Yen for little cost, and investing abroad for a net positive return. Once investments abroad are considered risky, they bring their money back in Yen in large volumes, causing Yen to appreciate heavily.

Shorting AUDJPY, is in effect the same thing as shorting Equities. Check this chart.
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  • #18,226
  • Jan 5, 2016 10:59pm Jan 5, 2016 10:59pm
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} The other thing is, yesterday it was in the news that VW was being sued up to USD90Bn by the US Govt, and the price of VW dropped 5% yesterday, it will be interesting to see how VW can fund this, because their Mkt Cap is only EU62Bn currently, so its probably a good chance the fine will be negotiated lower. Now, when the VW scandal was originally released to the media, on Day 1, the market dropped heavily but then was bought up again; and it wasn't until Day 2, that's when the market really dropped and I lost out big time that day assuming...
Someone wants to bankrupt VW lol.. The fines they impose upon people and corporations in America is beyond pathetic. One fine can bankrupt any person or corporation.
  • #18,227
  • Jan 5, 2016 11:52pm Jan 5, 2016 11:52pm
Short 10280.. 10 point stop
  • #18,228
  • Jan 6, 2016 12:09am Jan 6, 2016 12:09am
Quoting danc
Short 10280.. 10 point stop
closed 35 clear.. still holding possie at 280.. stop 5 in black
  • #18,229
  • Jan 6, 2016 12:14am Jan 6, 2016 12:14am
  •  Zinot
  • | Joined Dec 2015 | Status: VUIP - Very UnImportant Person | 138 Posts
also short @ 10263 SL 10300
Insanity: doing the same over and over again & expecting different results!
  • #18,230
  • Jan 6, 2016 12:30am Jan 6, 2016 12:30am
Looks lie 10120 is gonna hit today.
  • #18,231
  • Jan 6, 2016 12:30am Jan 6, 2016 12:30am
Quoting stylinex
{quote} Someone wants to bankrupt VW lol.. The fines they impose upon people and corporations in America is beyond pathetic. One fine can bankrupt any person or corporation.
Yeah, it may be controversial too, because it involves a foreign company operating in the US, so it could be that US Govt may impose harsher penalties because its a foreign company.
  • #18,232
  • Jan 6, 2016 12:51am Jan 6, 2016 12:51am
I'm expecting Dow support to come in around S2 today which is just below 16,950, but how solid it'll be remains to be seen if we get there. Otherwise the markets are looking perilous if the current support level breaks down on the Dax and the Dow, with the Dax potentially dropping back to the 9,300 level. So all to play for atm.
  • #18,233
  • Jan 6, 2016 1:05am Jan 6, 2016 1:05am
Quoting cat
I'm expecting Dow support to come in around S2 today which is just below 16,950, but how solid it'll be remains to be seen if we get there. Otherwise the markets are looking perilous if the current support level breaks down on the Dax and the Dow, with the Dax potentially dropping back to the 9,300 level. So all to play for atm.
Its pretty amazing these moves.

I took a data dump of the Dax during March to May 2015, when the Dax was much higher. And for the days when the EURUSD was in the 1.07-1.08 range, as it is now, the average Dax price was 12,035pts. That is a whopping 17.8% higher back during those months when the EURUSD was the same price.
  • #18,234
  • Jan 6, 2016 1:20am Jan 6, 2016 1:20am
Quoting PariCovek
{quote} Its pretty amazing these moves. I took a data dump of the Dax during March to May 2015, when the Dax was much higher. And for the days when the EURUSD was in the 1.07-1.08 range, as it is now, the average Dax price was 12,035pts. That is a whopping 17.8% higher back during those months when the EURUSD was the same price.
This is what happens when the patient's drugs are taken away, they start flipping out. Asset prices can only be pumped up artificially for so long, and sooner or later they have to crash. Basically, we ain't seen nothing yet.
  • #18,235
  • Edited 1:43am Jan 6, 2016 1:32am | Edited 1:43am
GM - after the nice 100+ pts drop from XO, price spiked under yesterday's low in a Selling Climax Candle at A ( again into the Supply Zone) in an ultra high volumed, WR hammer, showing that buyers - probably profit takers were stepping in. This was confirmed by the HL at B in a high volumed grave-yard doji.

At C, in an ultra high volumed graveyard doji, sellers returned only to find active buyers again in the high volumed hammer at D.

Now its looking like a sideways move until one side or the other takes control and move price out of this range.

Above we have the over-night gap and below the December Low at 10,120.......

Time for another coffee
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #18,236
  • Jan 6, 2016 2:23am Jan 6, 2016 2:23am
M15, Support looks to be breaking. I'm short.
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  • #18,237
  • Jan 6, 2016 2:27am Jan 6, 2016 2:27am
another test of yesterdays low. Looks like it gonna drop
  • #18,238
  • Jan 6, 2016 2:28am Jan 6, 2016 2:28am
S1 10201.9
S2 approx 10072
  • #18,239
  • Jan 6, 2016 2:29am Jan 6, 2016 2:29am
DOW cash approaching S2 16939.7
  • #18,240
  • Jan 6, 2016 2:30am Jan 6, 2016 2:30am
Support is broken...
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