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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #58,881
  • Dec 27, 2015 4:36pm Dec 27, 2015 4:36pm
Quoting ContxtTrader
These is a massive head and shoulders set up on the daily chart. There's also no stimulus coming from the BoJ in the near future. The break of the up trend at the end of last week was a big signal. We could see 118.50 pretty soon. {image}
It could also bounce from here, look left back to July. However I think your expectation has just as much probability as anything else.
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  • #58,882
  • Dec 29, 2015 8:13am Dec 29, 2015 8:13am
No open trades [ waiting....]
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  • #58,883
  • Dec 29, 2015 8:54am Dec 29, 2015 8:54am
I opened a long at 120.40 and I'll close it when it reaches 120.70.
  • #58,884
  • Dec 29, 2015 12:46pm Dec 29, 2015 12:46pm
Hi All, new to this forum. I am long at 120.49 on a five min chart, aiming for 5 pips only ... with a stop loss of 15. Good move? Anyone?
  • #58,885
  • Dec 29, 2015 3:37pm Dec 29, 2015 3:37pm
  •  Zinot
  • | Joined Dec 2015 | Status: VUIP - Very UnImportant Person | 138 Posts
if price get rejected from trendline, resistance and 200EMA it will be the bear for new years eve...

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Insanity: doing the same over and over again & expecting different results!
  • #58,886
  • Dec 29, 2015 7:29pm Dec 29, 2015 7:29pm
Trendlines drawn off spikes are less important IMO.

But agree price is "sitting" on support at the moment.
  • #58,887
  • Dec 30, 2015 12:09am Dec 30, 2015 12:09am
  •  Zinot
  • | Joined Dec 2015 | Status: VUIP - Very UnImportant Person | 138 Posts
I agree with you about the spikey opinion. But this Trendline in connection with the other factors AND the big red candle which was needed to go through the trendline gave me the bearish gut feeling...
Insanity: doing the same over and over again & expecting different results!
  • #58,888
  • Dec 30, 2015 1:50am Dec 30, 2015 1:50am
Quoting Angel11
Hi All, new to this forum. I am long at 120.49 on a five min chart, aiming for 5 pips only ... with a stop loss of 15. Good move? Anyone?
You have just experienced a typical market idiosyncrasy, price kissed your SL and then turned up to breeze past your TP.

Here is a possibly useful link for you. Also there is a useful school at Babypips.com, try to do the whole course.
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  • #58,889
  • Dec 30, 2015 4:21am Dec 30, 2015 4:21am
  •  Zinot
  • | Joined Dec 2015 | Status: VUIP - Very UnImportant Person | 138 Posts
Quoting Exodus
{quote} You have just experienced a typical market idiosyncrasy, price kissed your SL and then turned up to breeze past your TP.
someone made money... as simple as it sounds but thats what it is. It will happen to you more than often than you think

the babypips courses are a MUST before entering a single trade.
Insanity: doing the same over and over again & expecting different results!
  • #58,890
  • Dec 30, 2015 2:08pm Dec 30, 2015 2:08pm
1.12 is coming I believe and not 130. After 4 years this trend has peaked. The BOJ took a pass last OCT because a rate of more that 125 would be very unpopular seeing wages have not risen much. A major Morgan Stanley analyst formerly with the BOJ has stated 100 will be the norm now. I totally believe that because on the USD side of this we are not going to see more dollar strength until just before another rate hike. Historically USD sells off after a hike until the next one and that will be a very long time given the almost flat growth projected in the US next year. The Fed is not dumb. Any regimented hikes from here will spiral global economies into recession.

We are just seeing the end of year stillness before another NFP. In a market environment where the certainty is mediocre growth we will see more yen repatriated and a peaked out dollar. The Fed itself will not want to see a stronger dollar from here for obvious reasons and whether it is the BOJ, RBA, ECB or whatever central banks have very effective ways to control currency strength.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #58,891
  • Dec 30, 2015 3:26pm Dec 30, 2015 3:26pm
Frack drilling here in the U.S. for crude was a gamechanger. That is one of the most important factors increasing the value of the U.S. dollar. And that is not going away completely unless we hit $20 crude. And as soon as it bottoms and starts to rise fracking will come roaring back.

So I believe dollar strengthening, with some ups and downs in between, will continue for years more.
  • #58,892
  • Dec 31, 2015 1:01am Dec 31, 2015 1:01am
Quoting SunTrader
Frack drilling here in the U.S. for crude was a gamechanger. That is one of the most important factors increasing the value of the U.S. dollar. And that is not going away completely unless we hit $20 crude. And as soon as it bottoms and starts to rise fracking will come roaring back. So I believe dollar strengthening, with some ups and downs in between, will continue for years more.
You believe that fracking here in US will reduce our trade deficit, and that will boost the dollar?
  • #58,893
  • Dec 31, 2015 3:44am Dec 31, 2015 3:44am
Quoting SunTrader
Frack drilling here in the U.S. for crude was a gamechanger. That is one of the most important factors increasing the value of the U.S. dollar. And that is not going away completely unless we hit $20 crude. And as soon as it bottoms and starts to rise fracking will come roaring back. So I believe dollar strengthening, with some ups and downs in between, will continue for years more.
If America decides to use its own oil instead of imported oil that will certainly reduce the supply of petro-dollars.

The next thing to improve the strength of the US$ will be if the trade account (current account ?) is balanced. Can't see that happening for a while ... unless the major reason for imbalance is oil purchase.
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  • #58,894
  • Dec 31, 2015 10:57am Dec 31, 2015 10:57am
Quoting SunTrader
Frack drilling here in the U.S. for crude was a gamechanger. That is one of the most important factors increasing the value of the U.S. dollar. And that is not going away completely unless we hit $20 crude. And as soon as it bottoms and starts to rise fracking will come roaring back. So I believe dollar strengthening, with some ups and downs in between, will continue for years more.
Well said. The 40 year ban on US oil exports has been ended in congress too. We will now be a strong oil exporter. The US has never defaulted on it's debt. Triple AAA rated with a federal court system that makes US treasuries like gold. Bond holders get their money. Viva la USD.
Be humble or be humbled.
  • #58,895
  • Dec 31, 2015 11:23am Dec 31, 2015 11:23am
I think you will find that one of the agencies cut the AAA rating after the major stand-off which shut down the government for 3 weeks.
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  • #58,896
  • Dec 31, 2015 3:26pm Dec 31, 2015 3:26pm
Quoting Exodus
I think you will find that one of the agencies cut the AAA rating after the major stand-off which shut down the government for 3 weeks.
What are you talking about?
What Government?
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  • #58,897
  • Dec 31, 2015 3:29pm Dec 31, 2015 3:29pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} What are you talking about? What Government?
I mean I'm one of those idiots that have no TV
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  • #58,898
  • Dec 31, 2015 3:30pm Dec 31, 2015 3:30pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} I mean I'm one of those idiots that have no TV
coz I hate watching commercials.
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  • #58,899
  • Dec 31, 2015 3:32pm Dec 31, 2015 3:32pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} coz I hate watching commercials.
But I have internet, I can always go to CNN, or MSNBC but not FOX
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  • #58,900
  • Dec 31, 2015 7:50pm Dec 31, 2015 7:50pm
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