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  • #1,046,561
  • Dec 22, 2015 3:43pm Dec 22, 2015 3:43pm
good place for long?

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If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #1,046,562
  • Dec 22, 2015 3:43pm Dec 22, 2015 3:43pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Disker, I know fairly pretty much stuff about all kind of market profiles, volume profiles, the processes of market auction etc., whatever. I even worked with order flow. But all I can say: it doesn't give me an advantage so far on a statistical basis. Various studies found, that orderflow does not give a statistical significant advantage in predicting exchange rates in the short term For me the main question is: how was the social mood of the traders the last time volume came in at certain levels vs. how is the social mood of the traders...
Did you ever draw fibs of volume and tried them?
  • #1,046,563
  • Dec 22, 2015 3:56pm Dec 22, 2015 3:56pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Did you ever draw fibs of volume and tried them?

Damn it!!! You asked me this question a longer time ago but I never went after it. Should I? Is there beef?
  • #1,046,564
  • Dec 22, 2015 4:01pm Dec 22, 2015 4:01pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Disker, I know fairly pretty much stuff about all kind of market profiles, volume profiles, the processes of market auction etc., whatever. I even worked with order flow. But all I can say: it doesn't give me an advantage so far on a statistical basis. Various studies found, that orderflow does not give a statistical significant advantage in predicting exchange rates in the short term For me the main question is: how was the social mood of the traders the last time volume came in at certain levels vs. how is the social mood of the traders...

and then read this:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ow-study-shows


snippet: (but read whole article)

Norway’s wealth fund has said it has worked out how to dodge traders in the U.S. trying to profit on its orders by leaving no pattern for them to track.


Good luck with the approach of only watching the DOM.

BTW: I find it funny to have a DOM of 5 instances. I find it more funny when people think they have an advantage by having 10.........
  • #1,046,565
  • Dec 22, 2015 4:06pm Dec 22, 2015 4:06pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Damn it!!! You asked me this question a longer time ago but I never went after it. Should I? Is there beef?
Just draw them on one of your active volume profile and tell me what you think? . I use market statistic instead of volume profile.
I am referring to something like you did with MM
  • #1,046,566
  • Dec 22, 2015 4:28pm Dec 22, 2015 4:28pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Just draw them on one of your active volume profile and tell me what you think? . I use market statistic instead of volume profile. I am referring to something like you did with MM

may last a while before being able :-(

since I updated to Win 10 I have severe issues with updating the database/Excel. It freezes nearly everytime and I am not able to find the fault so far.
  • #1,046,567
  • Dec 22, 2015 4:34pm Dec 22, 2015 4:34pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} and then read this: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...ow-study-shows snippet: (but read whole article) Norways wealth fund has said it has worked out how to dodge traders in the U.S. trying to profit on its orders by leaving no pattern for them to track. Good luck with the approach of only watching the DOM. BTW: I find it funny to have a DOM of 5 instances. I find it more funny when people think they have an advantage by having 10.........
Lol... true.

The banks and dealers use a strategic quoting strategy based on private and public information.

To avoid retail arbitrage between dealer prices they supply uniform quotes to the public. But because the dealers have the private information on real order flow, this allows them to take speculative positions based on private information which produces a positive edge for them. Doing this it distorts and reduces the flow of information to the broader market, and when they have unanticipated inventory imbalances they are moved through inter-dealing activity which help neutralize those positions out of view of the retail market. So order flow is far more limited than people would like to think. It's a piece of the puzzle the same way charts are.Both are a small window with big blind spots.

Sometimes complex problems require more simple solutions.

Inserted Video
  • #1,046,568
  • Dec 22, 2015 5:01pm Dec 22, 2015 5:01pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} may last a while before being able :-( since I updated to Win 10 I have severe issues with updating the database/Excel. It freezes nearly everytime and I am not able to find the fault so far.
Sorry to hear that, as far as I know its one of the important tool you use for decision. Why don't you go back to win8 or 7?
Whenever you can look at it I would like to hear you opinion.
  • #1,046,569
  • Dec 22, 2015 5:04pm Dec 22, 2015 5:04pm
Looks like possible consolidation+volatility. Would need to see some action above 1.097 and preferably day close above previous day highs now for continuation. I'll keep a wait and see approach and leave some room for volatility - This is a significant level clearly so the big players changing positioning is bound to cause possibly large swings. The volatility and patterns at key levels like this can be indication of what may happen later. Technical background is there was a doji-like bar around the rate news at this level and if this level can be held then more upside would open. (given that I'm expecting some volatility around this area, the "held" really means some daily closes above a range formed around ~1.095)
  • #1,046,570
  • Dec 22, 2015 5:23pm Dec 22, 2015 5:23pm
Quoting Luther
{quote} Lol... true. The banks and dealers use a strategic quoting strategy based on private and public information. To avoid retail arbitrage between dealer prices they supply uniform quotes to the public. But because the dealers have the private information on real order flow, this allows them to take speculative positions based on private information which produces a positive edge for them. Doing this it distorts and reduces the flow of information to the broader market, and when they have unanticipated inventory imbalances they are moved through...

great video - enjoyed it very much
  • #1,046,571
  • Dec 22, 2015 5:24pm Dec 22, 2015 5:24pm
wow, is it really that easy? if it was. why not post the fundamentals saying we are are going to 1.2 or 1.00. why not post it before we get there?. like now, so we can all make some money. the truth is with so many variables its impossible more than a educated guess. one mans fundies is another using fundies bs. its like telling a child, "you will not understand till your older". many of us like to be "in the know loop". the truth is its no more than a guess. some more educated than others. r/r with positive probabilities is the only winning combination over time.

not meant to piss anyone off. we all need a realty check. auguring for the sake of auguring. makes john doe a bad trader. be nimble enough to admit u dont know. trying to explain the explainable i leave to the guys signing others up.

i hope i met the goal of making one think.

i love the professors leading a middle class life, explaining instead of making money explanations.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,046,572
  • Dec 22, 2015 5:28pm Dec 22, 2015 5:28pm
Quoting Rockerzeus
{quote} Sorry to hear that, as far as I know its one of the important tool you use for decision. Why don't you go back to win8 or 7? Whenever you can look at it I would like to hear you opinion.

am a bit short of time at the moment, plus the fact that all else runs very well under windows 10 so far.

Now I have 3 and a half week vacation - maybe I will find some time
  • #1,046,573
  • Dec 22, 2015 5:36pm Dec 22, 2015 5:36pm
Quoting gatorinla
wow, is it really that easy? if it was. why not post the fundamentals saying we are are going to 1.2 or 1.00. why not post it before we get there?. like now, so we can all make some money. the truth is with so many variables its impossible more than a educated guess. one mans fundies is another using fundies bs. its like telling a child, "you will not understand till your older". many of us like to be "in the know loop". the truth is its no more than a guess. some more educated than others. r/r with positive probabilities is the only winning combination...

Right on.
I was thinking maybe he could just fire up his Order Flow Generator 2000 and through us a little nugget down here. Nothing spectacular just a little sample.
Than we could quit the arguing and get down to business
  • #1,046,574
  • Dec 22, 2015 5:39pm Dec 22, 2015 5:39pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} am a bit short of time at the moment, plus the fact that all else runs very well under windows 10 so far. Now I have 3 and a half week vacation - maybe I will find some time
Ok, hope you will find solution.
  • #1,046,575
  • Dec 22, 2015 5:46pm Dec 22, 2015 5:46pm
Quoting gatorinla
wow, is it really that easy? if it was.......
I gotta love it Gator... Smilin' with this post as I listen to "The Big Short" (for the 3rd time) before I go see the movie when released... Happy 'whatever you want it to be' this week... Stay safe out there..

Seer
Pip what you see; See what you pip!
  • #1,046,576
  • Dec 22, 2015 5:54pm Dec 22, 2015 5:54pm
closes above 0972 on the bull side.. below 0945 bear side. London and ny closed on the bull side of 0945 (actual 0944.2) later
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,046,577
  • Dec 22, 2015 6:14pm Dec 22, 2015 6:14pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} yeah I'm long for 0970ish alternatively on break of 0800 I think it'll go monthly pivot 0724.
target hit on EU, +120

took some gold off at 1079 for +24 and will add it back at 1083


and UCAD short gonna close early for 20 pips on some and 40 on others, even though we could be at a major top and my TPs are nearby...

done until next week, enjoy your holidays
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  • #1,046,578
  • Dec 22, 2015 6:57pm Dec 22, 2015 6:57pm
Quoting Rag2RichesFX
{quote} target hit on EU, +120 took some gold off at 1079 for +24 and will add it back at 1083 and UCAD short gonna close early for 20 pips on some and 40 on others, even though we could be at a major top and my TPs are nearby... done until next week, enjoy your holidays {image}
Will be pretty quite next week I guess.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #1,046,579
  • Dec 22, 2015 7:34pm Dec 22, 2015 7:34pm
i'll be a hammering this one at about 937 somewhere around there. don't blame me if it's a looser, you take it, it's your call

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If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #1,046,580
  • Dec 22, 2015 7:44pm Dec 22, 2015 7:44pm
Quoting KillerWhale
{quote} Will be pretty quite next week I guess.
Could you show how long will new year holiday last?
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