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  • #1,046,541
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:49pm Dec 22, 2015 1:49pm
Quoting Luther
{quote} Here's what happened to the trade weighted value of USD the last 5 FED rate rises. {image}

great chart, thank you
  • #1,046,542
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:50pm Dec 22, 2015 1:50pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Careful with the words: when you refer to smart money, people may think, that you are talking about the large traders reporting in the COT report. They are still heavily short the Single Currency and long the USD
Very true, but when its too much that's a possibility of reversal, this is what i look at
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,046,543
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:50pm Dec 22, 2015 1:50pm
Looks like ~1.09 is possible if the move continues down
  • #1,046,544
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:57pm Dec 22, 2015 1:57pm
Quoting fxjesus
Looks like ~1.09 is possible if the move continues down
So did you short it? If so at what price?
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #1,046,545
  • Dec 22, 2015 1:58pm Dec 22, 2015 1:58pm
0940 should resume bulls initially towards 1025/30...let's see

Interested in 0860 for 1250/60..
When Scalpers win, I lose and Vice varsa...
  • #1,046,546
  • Dec 22, 2015 2:05pm Dec 22, 2015 2:05pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Very true, but when its too much that's a possibility of reversal, this is what i look at

Larry Williams found out, that it is of nearly no value to know the absolute amount of the position the different players are holding (Commercials and Large Traders). He found out, that it is the relative amount of the positions (relative to the times before) or the change.

So best tool to use is the COT index


Combine COT index with sentiment data and it gets even better :-)

  • #1,046,547
  • Dec 22, 2015 2:08pm Dec 22, 2015 2:08pm
Quoting MissPips
{quote} So that would seem to directly contradict what the fundamentalists say should happen. Do you have any thoughts on why that happens? (BTW thanks for posting that chart. It's amazing).
We don't know how the market will react each time. What typically tends to occur is a sharp reversal in fixed income markets after a hike with falling bond prices accompanied by rising yields. Because the banks have tighter regulations this time around, they may not be able to play the same role as MM in the treasuries market to control the swings on the 10Y. (similar to what happened last October).

Either way, we should see some excellent volatility in 2016.
  • #1,046,548
  • Dec 22, 2015 2:12pm Dec 22, 2015 2:12pm
Quoting Luther
There's no need to pitch commercial products on the forum. A standard DOM works just as well with a GLOBEX Deep Book subscription. {quote}

L O L

Actually, I'm trying to help you people understand, and based on your response, you need a lot. A standard DOM only shows the inside bid and inside offer and it doesn't even do that correctly. It also only shows 5 levels of depth, the one I posted shows 10. They are not even remotely comparable

I will look at charts and put reference levels on them, but when in a trade, I'm reading order flow. You honestly think I need to pitch the sale of a DOM? I was trying to illustrate how for $400 you can purchase what I consider to be the best Depth of Market out there at a ridiculously low cost compared to extremely overpriced others in use by almost every hedge around. But..better go look at more candlesticks! God forbid you actually look at the information creating those candlesticks before they actually form and gain an invaluable edge. HeHe.
  • #1,046,549
  • Dec 22, 2015 2:20pm Dec 22, 2015 2:20pm
Quoting Goldflake
0940 should resume bulls initially towards 1025/30...let's see Interested in 0860 for 1250/60..
my tp is 1.1180, should I consider 1250 ?
  • #1,046,550
  • Dec 22, 2015 2:20pm Dec 22, 2015 2:20pm
if it bounce from .09560 we may see .09387
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.
  • #1,046,551
  • Dec 22, 2015 2:27pm Dec 22, 2015 2:27pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Hi Disker, I agree on the things you said about who is moving the market. People who have followed me over the course of the last 2 years or so have noticed, that I do work a lot with trading volume (real volume, option volume, tick volume etc.). But after all this time with using volume my impression is as follows (it is not my end-verdict, yet): a) volume profiles and such alike may be most helpful in ranging markets, but do suck in strong trending markets b) sometimes price gets stopped by the POC, othertimes it is the low volume zones...
Thanks for the response. You're definitely on the right track. What you need is an understanding of Market Structure and how all the things you mentioned work together. My DOM has a market profile on it, but market profile concepts are somewhat outdated. In terms of the POC, there are many different POC's throughout the day, and others you can use from the prior day if you know how to calculate it correctly that are absolutely invaluable Understanding High Volume Clusters, Liquidity Vaccums, the Inverse relationship between Volatility and Liquidity are all mandatory. We really don't care about the VWAP. The Important thing is living in the now: you want to see the actual size that is hitting into the bid/offer. SIZE moves the market and after you're good at reading order flow the patterns are easy to see and it allows you to see their hand, their true intent There is a reason why most proprietary firms don't let their traders even look at a chart until they can read order flow, trust me. It will be an eye opening experience if you put the work in. BTW, this is stuff that isn't even taught. There are two people I've seen come forward and actually teach it, but trading is a minority game so the more left in the dark, the better. Perhaps the reason why must people fail at trading is because they are looking at the wrong information? Stuck in the illusion that trading is merely Fibonacci replacements and candlesticks when in reality reading orderflow is the biggest edge you could ever give yourself. 98% of people fail because they have absolutely no understanding of market structure, what really moves the market, the games that are played and most importantly HOW price traded to the next direction. On a chart you can see that it did trade in a certain direction, but you have no IDEA HOW it traded there Why not start looking at what really matters, not the derivatives of what already HAS happened. <3

Peace fellas
  • #1,046,552
  • Dec 22, 2015 2:28pm Dec 22, 2015 2:28pm
Quoting disker23
{quote} L O L Actually, I'm trying to help you people understand, and based on your response, you need a lot. A standard DOM only shows the inside bid and inside offer and it doesn't even do that correctly. It also only shows 5 levels of depth, the one I posted shows 10. I'm reading order flow. ..better go look at more candlesticks! God forbid you actually look at the information creating those candlesticks before they actually form and gain an invaluable edge. HeHe..
What makes you think you understand more than other people around here?

There are plenty of DOM tools on the secondary market similar to what you are showing. They don't provide more information than the Globex Deep Book which is the equivalent to level II for Futures. Jigsaw is just an aggregation tool for standard order flow.

Grow up.
  • #1,046,553
  • Dec 22, 2015 2:47pm Dec 22, 2015 2:47pm
Quoting infinitus
{quote} Larry Williams found out, that it is of nearly no value to know the absolute amount of the position the different players are holding (Commercials and Large Traders). He found out, that it is the relative amount of the positions (relative to the times before) or the change. So best tool to use is the COT index Combine COT index with sentiment data and it gets even better :-)
Its very powerful

And its totally true that the value has barely a meaning. I've checked almost all COT datas from currencies/commodities of the past 15/20 years, and for currencies its not working very well, but for Agro commo for example its a powerful tool

Right now i'm on a mission to check good sentiment datas (the one you told me is pretty expansive and i don't know if its a reliable guy)
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,046,554
  • Dec 22, 2015 3:01pm Dec 22, 2015 3:01pm
Quoting Luther
{quote} What makes you think you understand more than other people around here? There are plenty of DOM tools on the secondary market similar to what you are showing. They don't provide more information than the Globex Deep Book which is the equivalent to level II for Futures. Jigsaw is just an aggregation tool for standard order flow. Grow up.
Because I'm an actual professional and was taught by some of the best. Having a globex deepbook might state that it's giving level 2 information, but that's not the case. I don't think i'm the one who needs to grow up considering I've told you three times now that it's not the same and instead of listening or god forbid...looking into it for yourself you sit and pout at your keyboard claiming I'm wrong. Yes, it is an orderflow aggregation tool, like many others, but in 2009 the CME actually changed the way they process orders (undoubtedly to help their friends with a seat on the exchange), so instead of seeing that a 100 lot traded (pre-2009), you might see two fifty lots, or four 25 lots, and 100 1 lots. Jigsaw actuallly reverse engineered their software to pre 2009 so now you can see the REAL size, and everything is much more transparent. It's really quite a tool. It also splits the uptick/downtick data making it 10x easier to read. It has others features as well My point is: The standard DOM doesn't show all the depth necessary to understand anything at all. It's giving you 20% of the picture and just makes it more confusing. TT_xtrader costs over 2k a MONTH and what I used previously before jigsaw and was shocked when i started using Jigsaw. Summary: It's better than software that costs 2k a month in use by the biggest banks in the world and you can buy it for a mere 400$ and it will revolutionize the way you trade. How do i know? I am an institutional trader and know what I'm talking about. Merely trying to help. Not all order-flow tools are created equal, especially when it comes to a DOM. You want to see the whole picture, or a quarter of the picture from 200 feet away? Your choice.
  • #1,046,555
  • Dec 22, 2015 3:09pm Dec 22, 2015 3:09pm
Quoting chibai73
fundamental reason for eu going up: because people are buying. end of story.
that's actually a reason for eur to go down
Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.
  • #1,046,556
  • Dec 22, 2015 3:11pm Dec 22, 2015 3:11pm
2 Legs on Eurusd trade closed +180 pips
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd12-22-15.png Size: 134 KB
  • #1,046,557
  • Dec 22, 2015 3:24pm Dec 22, 2015 3:24pm
Quoting KiNgEdwarD
{quote} Is there something that can make me understand pound weakness? thanks in advance.
Attached Image


this is you
Everyone has a plan 'till they get punched in the mouth.
  • #1,046,558
  • Dec 22, 2015 3:29pm Dec 22, 2015 3:29pm
Quoting disker23
{quote} Thanks for the response. You're definitely on the right track. What you need is an understanding of Market Structure and how all the things you mentioned work together. My DOM has a market profile on it, but market profile concepts are somewhat outdated. In terms of the POC, there are many different POC's throughout the day, and others you can use from the prior day if you know how to calculate it correctly that are absolutely invaluable Understanding High Volume Clusters, Liquidity Vaccums, the Inverse relationship between Volatility and...
Disker,

I know fairly pretty much stuff about all kind of market profiles, volume profiles, the processes of market auction etc., whatever. I even worked with order flow.

But all I can say: it doesn't give me an advantage so far on a statistical basis.

Various studies found, that orderflow does not give a statistical significant advantage in predicting exchange rates in the short term

For me the main question is: how was the social mood of the traders the last time volume came in at certain levels vs. how is the social mood of the traders when price hits the level again.


You said: "We really do not care about VWAP"

Who is WE?


I happened to get to know some professional traders (with deep pockets) in the past. All of them cared about VWAP one way or another. Even many HFT's/Algos care about VWAP.

Just curious........


If you proclaim, that you can , or we should, only trade in the here and now, you are forgetting a very well documented circumstance of the market, namely market memory. Why shouldn't we take market memory into consideration?

Why shouldn't we take Fibs into consideration, when markets react to them pretty often?

Why shouldn't we take candlesticks (their inherit information) not into consideration? I am not a fan of candlestick pattern, because nearly all are statistically worthless. But nevertheless, you can get information.

Show me orderflow data/method whatsoever, which gives statistically significant edge. I can not find such data. If there would be so, one would be able to find it.

I can remember one particular study from the University of Georgetown which dealt with "Understanding orderflow". It stated:

about one third of order ‡flow’s power to forecast exchange rates one month ahead comes from fl‡ow’s ability to forecast future fl‡ow, whereas the
remaining two–thirds applies to price components unrelated to future ‡flow

Does that mean I have a chance of 33% to get the flow/price right by only watching order flow? But 66% can puke me into my supper, when I do not obey them?
  • #1,046,559
  • Edited 6:42pm Dec 22, 2015 3:31pm | Edited 6:42pm
Quoting disker23
{quote} Because I'm an actual professional and was taught by some of the best. Having a globex deepbook might state that it's giving level 2 information, but that's not the case. I don't think i'm the one who needs to grow up considering I've told you three times now that it's not the same and instead of listening or god forbid...looking into it for yourself you sit and pout at your keyboard claiming I'm wrong. Yes, it is an orderflow aggregation tool, like many others, but in 2009 the CME actually changed the way they process orders (undoubtedly...
An appeal to authority, ridicule and denigration. Please continue.

Any new traders interested in TPO (or something like it) could go here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=514697

This guy walks the talk.
If you are new to FX don"t follow my trades, I 've blown many live accounts
  • #1,046,560
  • Dec 22, 2015 3:38pm Dec 22, 2015 3:38pm
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Its very powerful And its totally true that the value has barely a meaning. I've checked almost all COT datas from currencies/commodities of the past 15/20 years, and for currencies its not working very well, but for Agro commo for example its a powerful tool Right now i'm on a mission to check good sentiment datas (the one you told me is pretty expansive and i don't know if its a reliable guy)

you got a message
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