Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow

Evening. Shports,
10532 - SL 10543
10530 - SL 10578 ( its a reenter of the previous short wchih was 10613 and closed 10505 )

Hey guys,

I've been enjoying D1's thread for a long time now but it I feel there's something missing from this thread. In keeping with the essence of the thread "Carpe diem: Intraday tactics for Dax and Dow" specifically "tactics", why don't people post there "Tactics for intraday trading?

It's great that people here post their trades prior to the fact but think how useful it would be if an explanation of the tactic behind the trade was given!

That said all the best for the Christmas and New Years break, wishing you all many green pips...

D...

Thanks D1 - thanks for a great thread and all the best to you and yours for Christmas and a Very Prosperous New Year and to all the regulars here - I'm joining D1 in Holiday Mode

Hi Dane - thanks for your Xmas greetings. Like D1, I have in the past done this many many times and spent hours explaining my trading, only to have the same questions asked time and time again as far too many do NOT take the trouble to do some homework and read the thread or a specific posters posts. Consequently, my posts now are basic, although I do still answer queries and the continuing flow of PMs.
Regards
Islander

Today's tactics were pretty simple.

I saw EURUSD hit the 200sma on 1m, and looked ready to retreat before pre-trade hour meaning Dax could rise.

Commodities were positive today, and Asia Equities session was neutral.

So to me, this market would test the 50% Fib on yesterday's Swing High/Low (attached). So I had 3 mini long positions from 10575, exited for roughly +50 each just south of the 50% Fib on the 1H as shown below.

If we can break clear of the 7sma and 20sma on the 1H and 4H, it could be clear sailing north to around 10735 (20sma on Daily), however, I will wait for a drop on XO.

To me on higher TFs like monthly, weekly, daily all kind of look slightly bearish. Early buying followed by selling later in the day seems the trend.

I agree. I am of the view that a post which merely gives an entry and an exit is pretty pointless unless some explanation is given, which is why I never bother to post trades. It is always far more beneficial as a trader to concentrate on your own trades rather than someone else's, well that's what I've found anyway

@Dane

As a pointer, you may have noticed that my charts include a volume indicator and (tick) volumes are important in my trading. My old friend Hidden Gap continues to post excellent information on the use of volume and I have attached he latest post:


{quote} I noticed that lately most my post a quite negative answers and this one probably will be the same. Your idea would be right in equities market, where every single tick represents order flow. FX situation however is quite different as ticks represents change in price only. ....
Which is why those who use volume will tell you that VOLUME IS ACTIVITY. If you took the time to do some homework, you would find numerous studies that have concluded that tick volume is upwards of 95% equal to exchange traded volume. As a matter of fact, the "inventor" of Volume Spread Analysis (VSA), who mainly trades S&P futures, prefers tick volume even where actual volume is available. Simply put, tick volume is perfectly suited for ferreting out the intentions of the Smart Money (or Big Boys).

Take a look at the chart below.

Let me first say, that I know this is a great example and it does not always appear so obvious. If it did, we would all be rich. Actually, we wouldn't. As there would still be those who say, "there is no such thing as volume in forex". The naysayers would point still point out the differences among the various brokers as evidence to tick volume lack of worth. Not realizing that those who use tick volume understand that not all tick volume information is created equal. That some tick volume is better than other tick volume does not render all tick volume useless.


On to the chart.

There are many ways to use volume in trading. There is no implication being made that this is the only way to use it.

As price moves into the Supply/Demand Delta Zone, some interesting things can be see with the aid of Volume. The first thing to note is the wide spread up candle that closes off is high with the next bar down. If all that volume, or activity, represented buying then why did the bar close off its high? Moreover, if all that activity was buying, how could the next bar be down? There must have been some selling into all that buying. In VSA terms, we would call this interval Supply Coming In. But if we move away from the nomenclature and simply look at the candle, we see a bar with a lot of activity (Smart Money involvement) that closes off its high with the next bar down appearing just as price enters an area where we believe there is an imbalance in the Supply/Demand dynamic in the market.

But price actually continues to move up. If we look closer we see that price is rising and volume is falling. Price and volume (activity) are diverging. Weakness usually appears on UP bars. An UP bar is a bar that closes higher than the previous bar. Decreasing volume on UP bars is a sign of weakness. Some might see the price action as multiple unconfirmed No Demands. More broadly, we are seeing price move up, but fewer and fewer traders getting involved. Price is rising, but the Smart Money is less interested in the up move. If the Smart Money is not interested in higher prices, there's a good chance is because they expect price to move in the other direction.

Now take a look at the candle with the "X". Notice the lack of volume on a candle that has a wide spread closes higher (as well as makes a higher high), but closes below its midpoint. This can only happen is "somebody" or "somebodies" are SELLING. Since we are in a Supply Zone, we are predisposed to see selling, and that is exactly what we are seeing. I would also point out that this candle with "no real buying pressure" is confirmed with the next bar being down.

I'm going to skip the UT, which for some is the entry signal, and speak about the wide spread down candle. In a perfect world, this candle would have increasing volume and we would call it the "gotcha" bar. In this case the volume is decreasing. It makes this candle look like No Selling Pressure. I wont get into what happens after this interval to confirm the weakness. What I will say is that this candle/volume relationship shows that not every interval will be ideal.

(tick)VOLUME IS ACTIVITY.

Approximately 90% of tick volume can be attributed to the activity of the Big Boys.

When Elephants walk across your front lawn, they leave footprints.

Wake up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...1&d=1450631552

Hi Cat - I can only manage to post the basics in RT - and even doing that does distract a little from my trading. To continually add explanations is - for me - impossible as it takes my focus off MY trading. Thus my view when I do post is that any interested will ask questions which I can answer later.

Take this morning.....long at 10,589 banked +34 at TP Any experienced trader looking at the 1m chart can work out why I took that trade and exited where I did.

Likewise, I am now short from 10,609

Edit: Closed manually +32

hi all 10630 is point for going up i think, we may try 10500 weekly pivot if we dont go above 10630, from 10500 i will try add shorts targeting 10200 area.

This is just it, to really give the benefit of your thinking behind any trade, there needs to be some kind of rationale behind it, but only if your purpose is to help others. If it is to help yourself in some way, then sure, post away..short here, long there, but even that for me would be a distraction as I trade off small time frames as you know. What I have thought about sometime in the New Year is a thread where I post some of my live trades, with a detailed explanation behind them when I have time during the day, but I don't really want to start a rival to this thread, which I think is an excellent one, so I'll see.

As for today's set up as I see it, I have one of two key MAs on the H2 chart which has come over the top pf the price today, whereas yesterday they were both beneath it. Resistance was found on the H2 200sma bang on 10,800 which sent it down. So we have more downward pressure than we did yesterday for me, though now the H2 100sma has just been hit at 518 combined with the 76.4% for this move, so a support level which may send it up a bit, but I think we've seen today's highs now, or this morning's anyway.

Whats your stop loss level on the LONG 10, 600?

Thanks Col

PS Happy Christmas!!

Good morning.
New lows hited, and i think we should move now to 10400.
Im riding the short train

Is it because of profit taking, the DAx price is dropping? as people are getting panicked as everyone starts taking profits, it is dropping and everyone want to close the BUY trades quickly before others to close at the best available price... i'm not sure but some one who is knowledgable can point out...

SL at 10422, but hoping it break 10400 and i can close under it.
Then small BUY should happend.

Edit: Short closed. Waiting for some up,. then i can renew shorts.

morning, longs

Dax, sell, 10476

closed three +83

Ok, here is another for those into strategy. This one rarely fails me.

After a serious move up or down, I look for a break of the 7sma (green line) on 1m chart with a candle closing above it (for upside) or below it (for downside).

You will notice with the green candle closing above the 7sma at the first arrow, I knew then we would switch to the upside.

With a careful second eye on EURUSD, I noticed this had peaked and was retracing south meaning Dax could go up.

Once the Dax price movement cleared the 20sma (grey line) on 1m, I let go of the trigger knowing it would go higher. I banked some of my mini long's for +30 near the first red candle (second arrow).

Then once I noticed an engulfing green candle again boosting above the 7sma (green line), I went long again for another +30. However, I could have let it go longer until the first red candle or until the 7sma broke to the south side. If the setup is right, sometimes the Dax will make a run for the 200sma (red line) to touch it too.

sl hit for two positions -20

Here is another view on 4H TF.

We almost hit the 61.8% Fib around 10392pts, and bounced back to the 50% FIb 10477pts in that recent relief rally.

No doubt the algo's are buying then selling at these levels.

Always good to look at higher TFs for additional confirmation on entry and exit for those counter-trend rallies.