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USD/CAD

  • #8,601
  • Dec 18, 2015 11:33am Dec 18, 2015 11:33am
I remember last year same time now Euro spiked over 150 pips then crashed down once regular market liquidity came back.
With thin liquidity it is easier to push manipulate price.
Real CAD price is lot lower once market comes back in full force in Jan anticipate rabid decline.
USD is bought through the gills cross the board and everything is poised for corrections.
GU 150+ EU 1.10+AU 173+UC 132 coming in Jan

If Yellen can boast unemployment numbers based on holiday part time workers (age group 50+) then fine but what happens when thousands will get a pink slip once holiday season is over and add Oil sector decline thousands more will get lay off.Chevron already cut 10k jobs and more coming.
Won't surprise me if we go back to Zero rates soon.
She knows the real truth real unemployment in US is not 5% its more like 10-12%
Most states once your unemployment benefits expires you are not counted in stats and hence become "slack in labor market"
In trading, you have to be defensive and aggressive at the same time
  • #8,602
  • Dec 18, 2015 11:46am Dec 18, 2015 11:46am
Quoting barkie
{quote} FF posts month over month, statcan yearly data, different animals.
The link i posted was from Stats Canada, and is monthly. But regardless, news / data affects forex at different times frames. No big surprise here. It's just that DF said Forex Factory is a 'piece of sh*t'. Just wondering why? I don't see incorrect data. But if i'm wrong, please point it out. Thanks.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #8,603
  • Dec 18, 2015 11:54am Dec 18, 2015 11:54am
Quoting Davit
She (Yellen) knows the real truth real unemployment in US is not 5% its more like 10-12% Most states once your unemployment benefits expires you are not counted in stats and hence become "slack in labor market"
Same goes for Canada.

And don't forget the recent income-to-debt ration in Canada. Doesn't look good. Cut in rate may be required.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #8,604
  • Dec 18, 2015 12:10pm Dec 18, 2015 12:10pm
Oil broke 34.50 after London closed, what a suckers punch, clearly GS is having a big short on it, and disgustingly fundamentals have been doing them.favours, blood sucking cockroachs
  • #8,605
  • Dec 18, 2015 12:13pm Dec 18, 2015 12:13pm
Quoting barkie
{quote} FF posts month over month, statcan yearly data, different animals.
FF presenting the data differently from the original number, why do they have to? You must admit that the different presentation makes you feel hugely different, and thats they failure and wrong doing.
  • #8,606
  • Dec 18, 2015 1:43pm Dec 18, 2015 1:43pm
Quoting Duce
{quote} The link i posted was from Stats Canada, and is monthly. But regardless, news / data affects forex at different times frames. No big surprise here. It's just that DF said Forex Factory is a 'piece of sh*t'. Just wondering why? I don't see incorrect data. But if i'm wrong, please point it out. Thanks.
If you read the original text, which is :

Quote
Canada Nov CPI Rises to +1.4% Y/Y; Core Dn to 2.0% Target

By Courtney Tower
OTTAWA (MNI) - Canadian inflation rose in November to 1.4% on an annual basis, from 1.0% in October, edging up finally on the Bank of Canada's 2.0% target, while the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% on the month, matching the increase in October.
Statistics Canada reported Friday that consumer prices increased in seven of the eight major components, excepting a moderation in the transportation index on a year-over-year basis, which recorded its...

You will certainly have a different feeling about the CPI situation compare to the three red numbers that FF published. More importantly, I don't get why FF just directly take the Y/Y number from the source and publish it? Why go the extra mile just make things look differently, and worse in this instance.

I am not too happy about this, and I think other sites like ForexLive is doing a better job providing un-distorted figures which I tend to trust more.

Also, I should point out that Dec/Jan Canadian CPI figures, if reported on a m/m basis, is never too great, this is mostly due to weather, and too a lesser extent, statistical imperfections.
  • #8,607
  • Dec 18, 2015 4:48pm Dec 18, 2015 4:48pm
Quoting Darkforce
{quote} If you read the original text, which is : {quote} You will certainly have a different feeling about the CPI situation compare to the three red numbers that FF published. More importantly, I don't get why FF just directly take the Y/Y number from the source and publish it? Why go the extra mile just make things look differently, and worse in this instance. I am not too happy about this, and I think other sites like ForexLive is doing a better job providing un-distorted figures which I tend to trust more. Also, I should point out that Dec/Jan...
Yea the FF calendar is probably one of the worst in terms for reliability. The just a forum trying make money off advertising though, who cares?
All posts are my personal opinion
  • #8,608
  • Dec 18, 2015 5:29pm Dec 18, 2015 5:29pm
Quoting Dano12
{quote} now B up and C more down
Running ABC Range at the moment... playing the Range, Maybe could break out, if not could have another ABC corrective Zig zag with X intersection.
  • #8,609
  • Dec 20, 2015 5:10am Dec 20, 2015 5:10am
Quoting Dano12
{quote} now B up and C more down
If price doesnt break the peak high and makes a lower low, then I would anticipate Zig Zag. If this happens, it is not a breakout of the current range but a move into a bigger range.. Thats where false breakout occurs.
  • #8,610
  • Dec 20, 2015 9:21am Dec 20, 2015 9:21am
Quoting MJBhinder
{quote} Running ABC Range at the moment... playing the Range, Maybe could break out, if not could have another ABC corrective Zig zag with X intersection.
  • #8,611
  • Dec 21, 2015 2:30am Dec 21, 2015 2:30am
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  • #8,612
  • Dec 21, 2015 10:25am Dec 21, 2015 10:25am
The trend is your friend.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #8,613
  • Dec 21, 2015 10:38am Dec 21, 2015 10:38am
If it breaks above 1.40 I am opening new longs.
  • #8,614
  • Dec 21, 2015 11:20am Dec 21, 2015 11:20am
I wait for candles to close (depending on time frame) and whether certain levels provide resistance or support.

**Simplistic and obvious post...but true. It's very surprising how many traders forget this. It's usually the risk takers.**
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #8,615
  • Dec 21, 2015 11:45am Dec 21, 2015 11:45am
Quoting Duce
The trend is your friend.
missed the last part of that phrase friend..."...until it ends"
  • #8,616
  • Dec 21, 2015 11:59am Dec 21, 2015 11:59am
Quoting bladerogers
{quote} missed the last part of that phrase friend..."...until it ends"
I've got no crystal ball. My indicators (Ichimoku) and economic/political news will tell me if there's an actual trend reversal. No positive news for CAD yet.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.
  • #8,617
  • Dec 21, 2015 12:10pm Dec 21, 2015 12:10pm
Quoting Duce
{quote} I've got no crystal ball. My indicators (Ichimoku) and economic/political news will tell me if there's an actual trend reversal. No positive news for CAD yet.
Nor do I, just saying trends do end. Not saying this one has, not yet. But that 1.4 level resistance seems to be incredible. I am also of the opinion however that CAD is way undervalued right now. But until I see the chart showing me others feel the same way, I sit and wait, like a funnel web spider
  • #8,618
  • Dec 21, 2015 4:40pm Dec 21, 2015 4:40pm
Looking at the hourly chart, price is still trading within the Range. If price moves higher than its current peak, price could possibly resume its uptrend...and if it makes a lower low(below range low), it would move into a bigger Range. Overall picture...price is in an uptrend, stalling just below key levels.
  • #8,619
  • Dec 21, 2015 5:44pm Dec 21, 2015 5:44pm
If price were to make 4th attempt at the highs and fails, I would be looking to short.
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  • #8,620
  • Dec 21, 2015 5:55pm Dec 21, 2015 5:55pm
You are best off trying to short anything CAD ie- Long USDCAD the strength at which OPEC is pumping is never been so high and say they wont stop yet. Until there is some sort of signal they going to slow down pumping, you will bet oil is going lower.

this article about sums it up pretty much how it is http://www.profitconfidential.com/oi...out-to-hit-20/

long AUDCAD and NZDCAD has paid off nicely also. Those pairs ADR has expanded huge! NZDCAD reaching triple digits as well as AUDCAD not far behind. These pairs are normally just the bird of FX-not much movement. Markets are cooked
All posts are my personal opinion
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