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USD/JPY Discussion

  • #58,841
  • Dec 19, 2015 5:24pm Dec 19, 2015 5:24pm
Quoting srt
Bigger picture view, I think maybe a break lower despite all the "US$ bullish" views. {image}

This scenario is definitely a possibility imho if the stock market keeps falling
If you think you can or cannot do it you are correct
  • #58,842
  • Dec 19, 2015 5:50pm Dec 19, 2015 5:50pm
Quoting Olu
{quote} This scenario is definitely a possibility imho if the stock market keeps falling
...... tricky time during holidays & year end. (light volume, sell losers for tax loss, etc....)
My "guess" is lower.
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  • #58,843
  • Dec 19, 2015 6:14pm Dec 19, 2015 6:14pm
checkout the chart http://www.forexfactory.com/showthre...42#post8577842
As Above, So Below
  • #58,844
  • Edited Dec 20, 2015 6:35am Dec 19, 2015 8:23pm | Edited Dec 20, 2015 6:35am
Quoting Jugoslavija
Skyhok,Sir you have my deepest respect for that call for reversal at 123 and new attack on 120 soon.I trade with technical analysis and use Elliott Wave as a security tool.I cannot trade only with Elliot Wave because I don't have enough plastic mind to use it for forecasting.I discovered you only short while ago and you made me become FF member after all these years only to express my high opinion of your Elliott Wave forecasting.To be frank,your Wave labeling is so daring and to me waves of same degree are so disproportionate in terms of time and...
Yes you are right, it took months if not years in studying Elliott Wave, not only in one book or school of EW but comprehensively into
most available. Plus a few techniques I've discovered in making 'wave counting' much easier. And there's more to be discovered.
I'm surprised that there's no university course on Elliott Wave for Economic faculties around the world.

EW & Fibonacci becomes an art when applied in long & short term forecast, and it's at it's best for setting up trades,
providing entry and exit points, tight stops at invalidation points and full range targets (an excellent money management tool), sometimes help in avoiding 'bull & bear traps'.

I admire your curiosity which will take you sky high!
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #58,845
  • Edited 1:39pm Dec 20, 2015 9:41am | Edited 1:39pm
Skyhok,thank you for your encouragement.
Right now I use EW for invalidation points as you call them.I call them point of ruin.With technical analysis I find a plausible story and than with my knowledge of EW rules I watch as a falcon if story is developing correctly.If market starts misbehaving ,according to normal EW development, my alert goes on.Like this USD/JPY situation in Friday.
I was also in AJ short trade and watched AU at the same time.Both were supposed to go deep down and first alert was behaving of AU during FED decision.That spike up to falling trendline was very problematic although according to EW I gave it benefit of doubt as you did as well.But then after when I saw small wedge on H1 raising from 0.7096 this was red alert for me according EW,because that is how strong countermovements sometimes start-small leading diagonal with deep retracement and then explosion upwards without any news...I was thinking about you on Saturday morning if you will post something about it and sure enough you did.Technically AU and AJ are still sell,but this Friday action on H1 is early warning for bears,but only for those with EW in their toolbox.AJ sell is not yet invalidated,but AU is.It all depends on UJ at 120.Technically and EW I cannot convince my mind and eyes that we will see strong push above 123 again,but I wouldn't dare to trade against your analysis.My experience and knowledge of EW tells me this is most contrarian trading technique existing.That is why it will never be part of any Economy Faculty teaching ever.I think Frost or Bolton said that in EW the most difficult thing was to believe into what EW-charts were telling him.
  • #58,846
  • Dec 20, 2015 12:28pm Dec 20, 2015 12:28pm
Waiting for reversal 120.40/50. That daily pinbar is fake.
  • #58,847
  • Dec 20, 2015 2:05pm Dec 20, 2015 2:05pm
Looking to buy soon.
  • #58,848
  • Dec 21, 2015 2:59am Dec 21, 2015 2:59am
sell...
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Money is made by sitting, not trading. Jesse L. Livermore
  • #58,849
  • Edited 3:55am Dec 21, 2015 3:12am | Edited 3:55am
Quoting Jugoslavija
Skyhok,thank you for your encouragement. Right now I use EW for invalidation points as you call them.I call them point of ruin.With technical analysis I find a plausible story and than with my knowledge of EW rules I watch as a falcon i..........................My experience and knowledge of EW tells me this is most contrarian trading technique existing.That is why it will never be part of any Economy Faculty teaching ever.I think Frost or Bolton said that in EW the most difficult thing was to believe into what EW-charts were telling him.
I need to slow down in posting analysis (or market calls) in too many currency pairs, putting myself on firing lines lately.
It's ok if they're working, otherwise, can be emotionally draining.
I agree with you on the leading diagonal of AUDUSD, and if present retracement stays mainly above 61.82% of that, might see more upside action.
Will post charts, not here, but in AUDUSD thread.
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #58,850
  • Dec 21, 2015 4:50am Dec 21, 2015 4:50am
Quoting skyhok
{quote} I need to slow down in posting analysis (or market calls) in too many currency pairs, putting myself on firing lines lately. It's ok if they're working, otherwise, can be emotionally draining. I agree with you on the leading diagonal of AUDUSD, and if present retracement stays mainly above 61.82% of that, might see more upside action. Will post charts, not here, but in AUDUSD thread.
If there is one person on this thread who understands how delicate work is to use EW for forecasting in live,than it is me.Prechter was claiming 10-15 years ago he has 70% success rate and that was after quarter of century of professional practice and he had first class EW mentors in direct lineage from Elliott.He was even proclaimed Guru of the Decade in USA,only to be ridiculed later after several failed big calls.People are what they are,you cannot help it.Look what happened to Jesus from Nazareth.He was abandoned immediately.
Making calls and trading them is even more demanding.That's why Prechter said he hates trading.It is hard work.
  • #58,851
  • Dec 21, 2015 8:11am Dec 21, 2015 8:11am
Quoting Jugoslavija
{quote} If there is one person on this thread who understands how delicate work is to use EW for forecasting in live,than it is me.
That includes me and majority of traders. If I think correctly, it has to do something with waves. So I imagine that I am a surfer at sea. I wait for a wave to come. But one has to be a very good surfer to ride a wave. Otherwise the wave just go pass by and have to wait again another.

When will a wave come? It has to do with candles. Ok, here come a wave. It goes by. Wait for another wave. Timing is important.

So, I think that's the idea. Wave count? That's the hardest part. But we can forget about it, if we don't know when a wave will come.
  • #58,852
  • Dec 21, 2015 8:53am Dec 21, 2015 8:53am
Hope it was ok that I stayed off FF for the weekend, geez.

Anyway on a daily basis I see, others may disagree which is fine by me, UJ is in ABC corrective mode (after 5 wave impulse) with A complete and B presently a abcde complex correction which seems to have completed 4 waves and possibly the fifth e wave. A little more data will tell. No sense to label re-label re-label again. Let it happen and react when necessary.
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  • #58,853
  • Dec 21, 2015 9:33am Dec 21, 2015 9:33am
Quoting Jugoslavija
{quote} If there is one person on this thread who understands how delicate work is to use EW for forecasting in live,than it is me.Prechter was claiming 10-15 years ago he has 70% success rate and that was after quarter of century of professional practice and he had first class EW mentors in direct lineage from Elliott.He was even proclaimed Guru of the Decade in USA,only to be ridiculed later after several failed big calls.People are what they are,you cannot help it.Look what happened to Jesus from Nazareth.He was abandoned immediately. Making...
4 posts, new member, and claims to be King of EW! Post some charts and let's have a look
A 1 pip gain is better than a 1 pip loss.
  • #58,854
  • Dec 21, 2015 9:51am Dec 21, 2015 9:51am
Quoting aeternum
{quote} 4 posts, new member, and claims to be King of EW! Post some charts and let's have a look
Go over at the AUDUSD thread and start watching.I will soon be celebrating 10 years of live trading and reason for joining FF right now is what Skyhok is doing.He is amazing and I know how hard it is to do it like he is doing.I just wanted to express my appreciation and in order to do it I had to become a member.Happy?
  • #58,855
  • Dec 21, 2015 10:59am Dec 21, 2015 10:59am
Keep Calm & Trade FX
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #58,856
  • Dec 21, 2015 11:29am Dec 21, 2015 11:29am
Quoting frx_trader
Waiting for reversal 120.40/50. That daily pinbar is fake.
I agree, I am shorting again. I think it might even reach 119.
  • #58,857
  • Dec 21, 2015 11:40am Dec 21, 2015 11:40am
long 121.04 tp 121.5
  • #58,858
  • Dec 21, 2015 11:50am Dec 21, 2015 11:50am
short
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As Above, So Below
  • #58,859
  • Edited Dec 22, 2015 1:51am Dec 21, 2015 8:23pm | Edited Dec 22, 2015 1:51am
USDJPY is presently in an Expanding Diagonal with-in an Expanding Diagonal.

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For discussion, the purpose of this thread:

'Diagonal Chart Pattern' is so common and prevalent in most markets these days, big and small. Right now, besides USDJPY, I see the following markets at different stages of Diagonals:

EURGBP H4, GBPUSD M15 H4, GBPAUD H1, NZDUSD H1, SPX H1, DJI H1, FTSE daily, AUS200 wkly(forming), HKG33 wkly, EURCHF, GBPJPY H4, AUDCAD daily, NZDCAD, , AUDJPY daily, AUDUSD 4Hr.? and more, **USDollar** ..................

Can you spot those diagonals?

Wait a sec, Does one need to know anything about Diagonals before trading?

Just one click away on Google search, as if the general public would know everything about ED, would one familiarize with it and work out how to trade the damn thing?

Ending Diagonal?
Click here:
https://www.google.com/search?site=&...23.JSAfPkqiS44

or Expanding Diagonal?
Click here:
https://www.google.com/search?site=&...nding+diagonal

or Contracting Diagonal? .......................
Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
  • #58,860
  • Edited 2:20am Dec 22, 2015 2:08am | Edited 2:20am
Quoting Jugoslavija
...............................My experience and knowledge of EW tells me this is most contrarian trading technique existing...................
EW is not a contrarian trading technique, it is this (contrary to what most traders think but follows the market where it turns):
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Elliott Wave for optimum entry, exit and risk management of trades
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