Man i'm hoping it turns around soon, last couple of days have been pretty hectic!
- #8,562
- Dec 17, 2015 10:14am Dec 17, 2015 10:14am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 5,895 Posts
{quote} Hi Dano, high on my chart is 1.3942, price may targeting 1.4003, but with oil price so soft, who knows? {image}
- #8,565
- Dec 17, 2015 10:29am Dec 17, 2015 10:29am
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,237 Posts
{quote}
- #8,566
- Dec 17, 2015 10:34am Dec 17, 2015 10:34am
- Joined Nov 2012 | Status: Trader | 5,895 Posts
{quote} Strangely, the dark TL on your chart looks slightly different from the pink line on your chart. Maybe the pricing of different broker as the cause? {image}
{quote} The fundamentals are very negative for CAD at the moment, and it may not be at its extreme just yet. Though oil only accounts for about 20% of export revenue of Canada, it certainly got more focus at the moment, and with everybody wrecking it like there's no tomorrow, I can't see any light in the end for the oil price. That been said, the darkness before dawn is the darkest, stay alive and you will live through this madness.
- #8,568
- Dec 17, 2015 11:45am Dec 17, 2015 11:45am
- Joined Jan 2011 | Status: dump and pump | 4,055 Posts
All posts are my personal opinion
- #8,569
- Dec 17, 2015 11:46am Dec 17, 2015 11:46am
- | Joined Feb 2011 | Status: Trader | 1,237 Posts
{quote} 100% correct, the sensitivity of the CAD to the oil price is baffling, as you rightly pointed out only accounts for 20% of export revenue. In my view, the CAD has borne the brunt of the USD strength but, we wait and see
I think oil is part of the story, but I can hardly make out how a country as big as Canada can have an economic collapse just because oil price dropped to $35/bbl. Although oil accounts for 20% export, it only accounts for less than 2% of the economy. Following this logic, current move of USDCAD is not justified by fundamental differential, it is just pure extreme sentiment.
So, speaking of oil, how exactly can oil price rebound? Read this:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-oi...0U01IK20151217
It summarised pretty much all the fancy wishful thinking at the moment.
I should also point out to another article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articl...fallen-too-far
So far OPEC has been betting on continued growth in demand to offset the drop in price, if a top client like China stops boost import(North-east Asian accounts for 75% of Saudi's oil export), then it may cause Saudi to rethink its strategy if oil price fall further.
- #8,580
- Dec 17, 2015 6:33pm Dec 17, 2015 6:33pm
- Joined Dec 2013 | Status: Trader | 1,508 Posts
Be humble or be humbled.