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  • #1,045,341
  • Dec 17, 2015 6:55am Dec 17, 2015 6:55am
Quoting PayTheLimit
{quote} I'd like something like this to transpire...the damage has been done to the bull camp in my opinion... {image}
thanks . clear chart (saved)

Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} On the H4- do you see the support ~0.7175? Then you see the large H4 engulfing bear candle that happened (3 candles before the current one)? I usually take those candles as hints, and more often than not it is correct. If a candle closes below the last closed support, generally we will break the support.....so looking at the H4, I consider the support mentioned before already broken, just waiting on NY to seal the deal, at which point I'd short the retrace if the time is right (ie not franky-LO or NY open/close If you need a picture...
yes . also lower highs ... probably gonna short if there will be a new lower high* . (see the paylimit chart) , thanks .
edit : awesome explaining on the chart ... thanks
  • #1,045,342
  • Dec 17, 2015 6:58am Dec 17, 2015 6:58am
Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,045,343
  • Dec 17, 2015 6:58am Dec 17, 2015 6:58am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} thanks . clear chart (saved) {quote} yes . also lower highs ... probably gonna short if there will be a new lower high* . (see the paylimit chart) , thanks . edit : awesome explaining on the chart ... thanks
On the M5/M15, if time of day is right- you can catch fast and easy scalps with that same theory- cloggie was a big fan of that and goes into detail if you look it up- or miss pips can add her thoughts, she was/is a big fan of his style
  • #1,045,344
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:04am Dec 17, 2015 7:04am
Quoting sanvulture
man, my charts are so sensitive to S/R lines that, when a buy/sell order is placed, chart automatically thinks they are resistance/support lines respectively and goes the other way.. i feel like, if i trade against me, i can make much better profit..
I have similar kind of feeling......
  • #1,045,345
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:06am Dec 17, 2015 7:06am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} On the M5/M15, if time of day is right- you can catch fast and easy scalps with that same theory- cloggie was a big fan of that and goes into detail if you look it up- or miss pips can add her thoughts, she was/is a big fan of his style
M5/15 is really too fast for me , generally mapping on H4 and trading on H1 myself ... , I will def. check cloggie's profile if I can get time at weekend
  • #1,045,346
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:11am Dec 17, 2015 7:11am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} On the H4- do you see the support ~0.7175? Then you see the large H4 engulfing bear candle that happened (3 candles before the current one)? I usually take those candles as hints, and more often than not it is correct. If a candle closes below the last closed support, generally we will break the support...aka closes matter more.....so looking at the H4, I consider the support mentioned before already broken, just waiting on NY to seal the deal, at which point I'd short the retrace if the time is right (ie not franky-LO or NY open/close)...

another read...I missed it looking for a tad higher myself..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Look Sharp/Trade Tight
  • #1,045,347
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:13am Dec 17, 2015 7:13am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} M5/15 is really too fast for me , generally mapping on H4 and trading on H1 myself ... , I will def. check cloggie's profile if I can get time at weekend
I agree.....generally daily for me as well.

The m5/15 offers the practice for those types of trades more than the h1/h4...practice practice practice

Just fired off a long on EU, stop at 1.0830
  • #1,045,348
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:16am Dec 17, 2015 7:16am
Quoting Pharm0r
{quote} I agree.....generally daily for me as well. The m5/15 offers the practice for those types of trades more than the h1/h4...practice practice practice Just fired off a long on EU, stop at 1.0830
Seems like early birds buying some USD ... will see
  • #1,045,349
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:19am Dec 17, 2015 7:19am
Looking at the daily, I see the entire day today mostly bearish. Maybe even tomorrow. Hopefully getting a crossing from Stoch at the extreme oversold area beginning of next week.
  • #1,045,350
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:20am Dec 17, 2015 7:20am
Quoting edyraper
{quote} Seems like early birds buying some USD ... will see
Adjusted, 0826 is a better stop, close to losing it- but that's where the action is

bbl have a meeting
  • #1,045,351
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:20am Dec 17, 2015 7:20am
hey everyone - how much could this upcoming news move a chart? I know it's considered important. I'm 30pips clear on the UJ and I'm thinking of closing.
Focus.
  • #1,045,352
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:22am Dec 17, 2015 7:22am
Quoting Marco-Kanto
hey everyone - how much could this upcoming news move a chart? I know it's considered important. I'm 30pips clear on the UJ and I'm thinking of closing.
wait for 123
  • #1,045,353
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:23am Dec 17, 2015 7:23am
Quoting evrynet
{quote} wait for 123
122.65 is target but I'll keep an eye on 123. Cheers.
Focus.
  • #1,045,354
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:25am Dec 17, 2015 7:25am
Quoting Marco-Kanto
hey everyone - how much could this upcoming news move a chart? I know it's considered important. I'm 30pips clear on the UJ and I'm thinking of closing.
If I knew with 100% certainty would leverage my dog and cat and bet the farm on it
  • #1,045,355
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:25am Dec 17, 2015 7:25am
Quoting MaxDoom
...biggest mistake they made was to position the market for more action prior to the meeting they went out their way to do it... hence market shock
The move was part of the pre-FOMC price control mechanism. Traders were loading shorts thinking Draghi would double the rate, but the banks were accumulating longs from late November because they knew he wouldn't. If you look at the 4 hour chart, there was no real selling pressure from 25th to the 3rd by the large players (and right before the pop was the classic market maker scaled entry pattern).

The ECB needs to keep some ammo for the next crisis, so they weren't going all in on this round. FED Rate policy divergence and Yuan inclusion in the SDR basket will have the same effect anyway. The Banks knew this before the announcement.

The noise about Draghi needing to do more was just to generate liquidity for the move up to the 1.100 handle. The core fundamental policy right now is about maintaining a stable debt ratio. Here's my post about it from last June.

Quoting Luther
The BIS and IMF see the Euro in a price stability corridor centered off the 1.100 handle when factoring balance of credit in the SDR basket. So, in the same way the Draghi Put operated in 2014, the Lagarde Call is operating so far in 2015.
No one is looking to mess up the Santa Rally in December, so we probably won't have any large events for the rest of the year ...if they can help it.

Have a happy holiday!
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  • #1,045,356
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:27am Dec 17, 2015 7:27am
Quoting Ken A
{quote} If I knew with 100% certainty would leverage my dog and cat and bet the farm on it
Me too Ken! I guess what I'm asking is how important is this important news? I know some carry more weight than others. Ta.
Focus.
  • #1,045,357
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:27am Dec 17, 2015 7:27am
gold broke down ... eh....
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  • #1,045,358
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:31am Dec 17, 2015 7:31am
Quoting Luther
{quote} The move was part of the pre-FOMC price control mechanism. Traders were loading shorts thinking Draghi would double the rate, but the banks were accumulating longs from late November because they knew he wouldn't. If you look at the 4 hour chart, there was no real selling pressure from 25th to the 3rd by the large players (and right before the pop was the classic market maker scaled entry pattern). The ECB needs to keep some ammo for the next crisis, so they weren't going all in on this round. FED Rate policy divergence and Yuan inclusion...
if u could post date this a month, it makes sense. words like knew would have to be know.
those who can, do. those who cant, talk about those who can
  • #1,045,359
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:33am Dec 17, 2015 7:33am
Quoting Marco-Kanto
{quote} Me too Ken! I guess what I'm asking is how important is this important news? I know some carry more weight than others. Ta.
Here's the answer

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I Just long EU on that data - might work might not work
  • #1,045,360
  • Dec 17, 2015 7:33am Dec 17, 2015 7:33am
Philly numbers are dissapointing, USD could be sold off
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