Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
News trading discussion - continuation
- #1,901
- Dec 15, 2015 4:02am Dec 15, 2015 4:02am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
- #1,902
- Dec 15, 2015 7:40am Dec 15, 2015 7:40am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,903
- Dec 15, 2015 7:47am Dec 15, 2015 7:47am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,905
- Dec 16, 2015 3:41am Dec 16, 2015 3:41am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
At 10:30 am EDT the EIA will release Crude Oil Inventories.
Check expected number a couple of minutes before the data comes out.
***********************************************************
Analysts Forecast 1.4 Million-Barrel Fall in Crude Stocks
Published: Dec 15, 2015
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to decrease in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.
Estimates from 11 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have fallen by 1.4 million barrels, on average, in the week ended Dec. 11.
Nine analysts expect stockpiles to decline, while two expect an increase. Forecasts range from a rise of 2 million barrels to a drop of 3.2 million barrels.
The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels, according to analysts. Nine analysts expect an increase, with two expecting a decline. Estimates range from a rise of 3.5 million barrels to a drop of 2 million barrels.
Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels. Nine analysts expect a gain, while another two see a fall. Forecasts range from a drop of 1 million barrels to a gain of 3 million barrels.
Refinery use is seen rising 0.5 percentage point to 93.6% of capacity, based on EIA data. Eight analysts expect a gain, while one sees a fall, one sees no change and one didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a drop of 1 point to a rise of 1 point.
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for that week showed a 2.3-million-barrel rise in crude supplies, an 89,000-barrel increase in gasoline stocks and a 1.8-million-barrel decline in distillate inventories, according to a market participant.
Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital -1.7 0.2 2.2 0.7
Citi Futures Perspective -2.5 3.5 2.5 1
Confluence Investment Management -2 2 -0.5 unch
Energy Management Institute -2 2.5 3 1
Excel Futures -3.2 1.6 2.7 0.3
Frost & Sullivan -1.5 -2 2 0.25
IAF Advisors 2 3 2.5 n/a
Price Futures Group -3 -2 1 1
Ritterbusch and Associates 1.2 2.4 1.5 -1
Schneider Electric -0.5 0.75 1.5 0.25
Tradition Energy -2.5 2.8 -1 1
AVERAGE -1.4 1.3 1.6 0.5
(Figures in millions of barrels except for refining capacity, which is reported in percentage points. For analysts providing forecasts in a range, the average of the upper and lower ends of the range is used.)
Good luck everybody!
Check expected number a couple of minutes before the data comes out.
***********************************************************
Analysts Forecast 1.4 Million-Barrel Fall in Crude Stocks
Published: Dec 15, 2015
By Nicole Friedman
NEW YORK--U.S. crude-oil stocks are expected to decrease in data due Wednesday from the Department of Energy, according to a survey of analysts by The Wall Street Journal.
Estimates from 11 analysts surveyed showed that U.S. oil inventories are projected to have fallen by 1.4 million barrels, on average, in the week ended Dec. 11.
Nine analysts expect stockpiles to decline, while two expect an increase. Forecasts range from a rise of 2 million barrels to a drop of 3.2 million barrels.
The closely watched survey from the Energy Information Administration is due at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
Gasoline stockpiles are expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels, according to analysts. Nine analysts expect an increase, with two expecting a decline. Estimates range from a rise of 3.5 million barrels to a drop of 2 million barrels.
Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to rise by 1.6 million barrels. Nine analysts expect a gain, while another two see a fall. Forecasts range from a drop of 1 million barrels to a gain of 3 million barrels.
Refinery use is seen rising 0.5 percentage point to 93.6% of capacity, based on EIA data. Eight analysts expect a gain, while one sees a fall, one sees no change and one didn't provide an estimate. Forecasts range from a drop of 1 point to a rise of 1 point.
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Tuesday that its own data for that week showed a 2.3-million-barrel rise in crude supplies, an 89,000-barrel increase in gasoline stocks and a 1.8-million-barrel decline in distillate inventories, according to a market participant.
Crude Gasoline Distillates Refinery Use
Again Capital -1.7 0.2 2.2 0.7
Citi Futures Perspective -2.5 3.5 2.5 1
Confluence Investment Management -2 2 -0.5 unch
Energy Management Institute -2 2.5 3 1
Excel Futures -3.2 1.6 2.7 0.3
Frost & Sullivan -1.5 -2 2 0.25
IAF Advisors 2 3 2.5 n/a
Price Futures Group -3 -2 1 1
Ritterbusch and Associates 1.2 2.4 1.5 -1
Schneider Electric -0.5 0.75 1.5 0.25
Tradition Energy -2.5 2.8 -1 1
AVERAGE -1.4 1.3 1.6 0.5
(Figures in millions of barrels except for refining capacity, which is reported in percentage points. For analysts providing forecasts in a range, the average of the upper and lower ends of the range is used.)
Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,906
- Dec 16, 2015 4:14am Dec 16, 2015 4:14am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
the market will start to spike at "FOMC Statement" 21:00 GMT+2 or "FOMC Press Conference" 21:300 GMT+3?
US Federal Funds Rate 21:00
Fundamental factors before release
It seems that all the conditions of the Fed wanted to raise the interest rate: the unemployment rate fell to 5%, the average increase in the number of employed in the last three months of above 200K (monthly), volatility subsided, he was relieved from China. Remains unresolved: the price of oil as a factor of inflationary pressure, and divergence with respect to the main "brethren," as a conclusion - a strong dollar.
Currently, the CME Group said the likelihood of a rate hike at the level of 83%. Wall Street Journal says about 90% probability of a rate hike. Reuters - 90% of the increase in interest rates.
Thus, the action Fedreza fully taken into account in current prices, and additional motion at the time of release can sprovots
The main story line of FOMC decision in December
If all goes under the plan and the likelihood of such a development is, as you have already realized 90%, the market will not be interested in the actual interest rate increase - their interest is punctuated by the pace at which the interest rate will rise in 2016.
Previously, a number of key figures of the Federal Reserve, including Janet Yellen have said that the interest rate will be raised gradually and smoothly, according to the Economic Conditions.
For example, at the moment the probability of a rate hike to 0.75% in January 2016 is only 10%; March has 40%; April almost 60%. It is with these figures and the game will take place at the time of the release of the results of the meeting of FOMC, any fluctuations in these values will cause volatility in the market. In turn, the risk for the Fed is the excessive growth of the dollar, which is therefore sufficiently "stable", with a strong dollar is hard enough to keep inflation near the target level (multiply that by the dynamics of oil prices, as well as the divergence in relation to the EU and others) . Not to harm the interests of the Federal Reserve and the general balance of power that can come back negative in the United States. Remembering Christine Lagarde, who noted the necessity of refraining from tightening of US monetary policy.
Could FOMC refrain from raising? Hardly - if so, it will be a shock to the capital markets, and whether it was necessary in this case to escalate the situation? What for? Janet sent to retirement (exaggeration) in this case, the scandal ... the scandal.
Technical factors publication
Technically, the interest rate is not punctual - it does not mean the signal delay, it only means that the publication is fully capable to deviate from the scheduled time, what it is to be mentally prepared.
Eight years had no real trade on this indicator, get ready for the maximum number of possible scenarios: from the delay, and ending with a pair of swing before release. Spreads. Slip. All just in case ...
Why can be volatile
Not for nothing says that the volatility "may be" because the market is quite likely - can safely take for granted. Naturally, when the data is located on level forecasts (projections and "inflated" 90% probability), markets are not interested, since the price has already absorbed this fact earlier, from expectations.
Another question - an added bonus on the protocol and the Fed Janet Yellen, new and fresh forecasts for 2016 - both eager to raise rates Fedrez, and whether in general he continue to do so against the backdrop of such a major reduction in inflation. It is this key line and generate current and perhaps future at the beginning of 2016 the mood.
In any case, the noble beast is back on the scene in 2016. The macro-indicators.
In the meantime, let us remember, when I was first voiced period of interest rate rises, and with which he was connected? The path to this day was long and interesting.
Good luck everybody!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,907
- Dec 16, 2015 8:52am Dec 16, 2015 8:52am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,908
- Dec 16, 2015 9:36am Dec 16, 2015 9:36am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,910
- Edited 9:12pm Dec 16, 2015 1:16pm | Edited 9:12pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Thoughts on "smart traders"
Fed rate increased to 0.5%
December 16, 2015, for the first time since 2008 Fed rate unchanged. What are your plans for 2016 FOMC.
FOMC decision
The range of interest rate increased from 0-0.25% to 0.25-0.5% (according to estimates). Voting took place anonymously, but was unanimously: 10 against 0 (all for the increase).
In the accompanying protocols were made the following changes:
- Household spending and business investment in fixed capital grow at a solid pace, at the same time, exports of "soft" (a synonym for weak)
- Under-utilization of manpower reduced
- Economic activity will continue to grow at a moderate pace, and the indicators of the labor market will continue to strengthen
- Unconditionally, the labor market situation has improved this year,
- The dynamics of the economic environment ensures a gradual increase in rates
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,911
- Edited 4:06pm Dec 16, 2015 1:39pm | Edited 4:06pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Wednesday
23:45
12/16/15
NZ GDP growth HOT!
(NZ GDP), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.
23:45
12/16/15
NZ GDP growth HOT!
(NZ GDP), New Zealand, NZDUSD
Average reaction when the trigger 35.00 points in the first minute after the release.
10% probability trades.
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,912
- Edited 9:09pm Dec 16, 2015 3:57pm | Edited 9:09pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,913
- Edited 3:42am Dec 17, 2015 3:14am | Edited 3:42am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,914
- Edited 10:59am Dec 17, 2015 3:42am | Edited 10:59am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
usdjpy
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,915
- Edited Dec 18, 2015 7:42am Dec 17, 2015 10:51am | Edited Dec 18, 2015 7:42am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,916
- Dec 18, 2015 9:22am Dec 18, 2015 9:22am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Great weekend to everyone
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,917
- Dec 18, 2015 9:45am Dec 18, 2015 9:45am
Friday 15:30 12/18/15 CA The core consumer price index (CA Core CPI), Canada, USDCAD Average reaction when the trigger 25.00 points in the first minute after the release. 25% probability trades. {image} {image}
- #1,918
- Dec 18, 2015 11:13am Dec 18, 2015 11:13am
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
{quote} That's super vvFish!
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,919
- Dec 18, 2015 3:48pm Dec 18, 2015 3:48pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...
- #1,920
- Edited 11:30pm Dec 18, 2015 10:53pm | Edited 11:30pm
- Joined Feb 2012 | Status: Trader | 6,160 Posts | Online Now
Inserted Video
Inserted Video
Only the price on the chart can show the entrance to the deal...