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EURUSD

  • #1,044,581
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:22am Dec 16, 2015 3:22am
Quoting forexings
Look at EZ fundamental data. They just don't want to push euro anywhere before FOMC. I don't think US, EZ, China provide their real economic data.
Of course they don't, it would be quite an embarrassment.
Can you explain that inflation this year was ZERO percent?

I guess Obama didn't see my lease apartment that went up 8%, or my utility bills or, well I could go on for an hour.

The fucking reality is that inflation needs to be close to $0.00 otherwise the government has to increase social security pensions and disability money and all kinds of money like medicare and medicaid and many more.
New voice message: Why are you calling me? If I need you, I'll call you!
  • #1,044,582
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:23am Dec 16, 2015 3:23am
Quoting MaxDoom
taken an EU short off weekly pivot rejection also long DAX and crude {image}
Vely vely nice ... took UCAD long, looks like countertrend trader's stops are getting chopped up ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,044,583
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:25am Dec 16, 2015 3:25am
Quoting Hickson
{quote} Vely vely nice ... took UCAD long, looks like countertrend trader's stops are getting chopped up ...
Worth a try indeed, but first time i see such a massive divergence on all TF without a correction

Maybe it will happen tonight
COT: The precious data ignored
  • #1,044,584
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:28am Dec 16, 2015 3:28am
I begin telling that is ONLY my strategy and hope nobody judge.. just took the info... use it or not..


1) Why will prices be volatile today? - yes, i believe so !

2) What is the current market expectation from the FED today? - rase rate to 0,25

3) What will happen to EU if Fed increase interest rates today by 25 basis points? - when the rate will apear 0,50 eur/usd down for at least 70 pips , after in conference Yellen will say that the US economy is recovering but the main target is the inflation on 2% ( eur/usd going down for another 50 pips ).In final question will drag pa up.

4) Would a rate rise today be good for equities? - nope, i don't think so

5) Is the current dominant trend in EU Bull or Bear? depend on what period you look - in 1H is Bullish but in 4H is Bearish ( if you ask me? - dose not matter aniway !!!

6) What will happen to the EU if they don't raise the rates today? - explode !! directly to 1,14-15 in 2-3 day max.


I know only 1 think for sure - Anubis : in any direction would go... in the nest 2-3 days it will fibbo min 50%

If i'm right i will have nice Christmas, if not i will lose 11000$.
But i'm counting on my fundamental analysis​ not a tehnical analysis,because is all about what THEY WANT ( US and EU, that use different monetary policy
  • #1,044,585
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:32am Dec 16, 2015 3:32am
Quoting kuroro001
{quote} Worth a try indeed, but first time i see such a massive divergence on all TF without a correction Maybe it will happen tonight
I think the buying pressure is just very high. CAD is basically toast and bulls will not even think about closing their positions with nothing that can really stop them atm ... I see nothing but a major FED dissapointment in the way of this freight train for today. As always, could just drop 500 pips out of the blue ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,044,586
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:34am Dec 16, 2015 3:34am
Hello friends,
i see on my chart that possibly EU will go to .080/075 as first target till .099 hold
for now i dont have any trade on eu, maybe will add few shorts after reaction of 099 if price gets here
Time is your friend; impulse is your enemy.
  • #1,044,587
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:34am Dec 16, 2015 3:34am
Quoting MaxDoom
taken an EU short off weekly pivot rejection also long DAX and crude {image}
I fully agree with your assessment but today it can change at glimpse of an eye. (FED interest rate decision).

I'm staying away today.
  • #1,044,588
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:37am Dec 16, 2015 3:37am
It's somehow nice to see that the general feeling before FED is still the same like it was 2008. Lots of guessing and funny predictions.
Good luck guys. I will continue watching.
Trade on your own risk Plan your trade&trade your plan dont be a
  • #1,044,590
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:39am Dec 16, 2015 3:39am
Quoting Trading Cat
It's somehow nice to see that the general feeling before FED is still the same like it was 2008. Lots of guessing and funny predictions. Good luck guys. I will continue watching.
Not keen to make some easy cash today?
  • #1,044,591
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:40am Dec 16, 2015 3:40am
Good opportunity to short :

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: sell eu.png Size: 47 KB
Money moves the market, not an indicator.
  • #1,044,593
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:43am Dec 16, 2015 3:43am
Quoting andoseg2
Good opportunity to short : {image}

You may be right !!!buuuut..
REmember !!!! - you are looking in 5m chart ... so the short will not be higher than 20 pips
  • #1,044,594
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:43am Dec 16, 2015 3:43am
Quoting MaxDoom
Are you ready for today? take the quick quiz.... NO GOGGLE it defeats to objective 1) Why will prices be volatile today? 2) What is the current market expectation from the FED today? 3) What will happen to EU if Fed increase interest rates today by 25 basis points? 4) Would a rate rise today be good for equities? 5) Is the current dominant trend in EU Bull or Bear? 6) What will happen to the EU if they don't raise the rates today?

1. Low liquidity before news , uncertainty, stop hunting just before news relies.
2. rate rise.
3. News is already priced in. dollar will be strong, EU weakening will be observed as in other currencies too. alone EU has it own fundamentals to go down further from this point. with alone 25 point rise is not significant but the general conclusion about further rate rise will push the dollar more strong. so we need more euro to buy USD $. thus eur/usd price will drop as a pair but alone euro price will not effect much.
4.NO
5. bearish
6. As a pair "EUR/USD" price will move upward side, as the Dollar will be weak. alone EU will not effect much.
don't predict direction, but dance with flow of water
  • #1,044,595
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:43am Dec 16, 2015 3:43am
And we already have some emotion going here ...
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,044,596
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:45am Dec 16, 2015 3:45am
Quoting MaxDoom
Are you ready for today? take the quick quiz.... NO GOGGLE it defeats to objective 1) Why will prices be volatile today? 2) What is the current market expectation from the FED today? 3) What will happen to EU if Fed increase interest rates today by 25 basis points? 4) Would a rate rise today be good for equities? 5) Is the current dominant trend in EU Bull or Bear? 6) What will happen to the EU if they don't raise the rates today?
sometimes new traders trade without knowing the basics of what they need to know, sometimes they over complicate with too much information making it difficult to make clean trading decisions, my answers are as follows:


1) Why will prices be volatile today?
Lack of volume
the answer is no more complicated than that, when volume disappears price can travel greater differences for less transacted volume

2) What is the current market expectation from the FED today?
Hawkish statement and a rate hike

3) What will happen to EU if Fed increase interest rates today by 25 basis points?
EU bear trend continues

4) Would a rate rise today be good for equities?
Probably
Normally a rate rise can hurt business as it increases cost of borrowing etc but the rise will be small and it will send a clear signal that conditions are improving which would likely result in positive investor sentiment towards equities

5) Is the current dominant trend in EU Bull or Bear?
EU is in a bear trend, recent activity since the March low is still only minor correction/consolidation

6) What will happen to the EU if they don't raise the rates today?
EU will still be in a bear trend, but the correction/consolidation may get a lift higher
Fact still remains that FED is getting more hawkish and ECB more Dovish making EU a bear market taking into account interest differentials
  • #1,044,598
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:45am Dec 16, 2015 3:45am
Quoting HareshBM
EURUSD reversed from 100-day and 200-day SMA resistance and now moves closer to its immediate support near 1.0980, which is closely followed by support near 1.0940 level. On a break below 1.0940 support, it could easily be aiming back towards 1.0750 support level. Above 1.1040-60 resistance, the pair should test 1.1160 level.
Reversal from 1.1040-60 resistance area and a subsequent weakness below 1.0940 support clearly indicates that EURUSD would drop sharply post the FOMC announcement.
Eyeing a retest of 1.0750 support area.
  • #1,044,599
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:48am Dec 16, 2015 3:48am
Quoting Anubisval
Hidden
why are you saying you love the man and then afterwards mocking him?
Fix up, trade sharp ...
  • #1,044,600
  • Dec 16, 2015 3:50am Dec 16, 2015 3:50am
It seems bear will take the chance because of fat money suckers still holding position for 2000+ pips so initially they will attempt for last deadly bite. Do or die
850 probably battle field before rate decision
You cannot learn better without losing
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