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The Really Useless Thread

  • #138,121
  • Dec 15, 2015 8:58am Dec 15, 2015 8:58am
[quote=chester123;8645811]{quote} Well, for me, you have one reality of society and its economy.

I thought you were tryng to mix some MacroEconomics Marxists reviews with trading. I wouldn't mix the macroeconomic theories with trading, because you may receive very bad experiences..
  • #138,122
  • Dec 15, 2015 9:05am Dec 15, 2015 9:05am
Quoting chester123
{quote} Thank you. The link does not work but Im gonna try to dig through that profile
probably because the search link is under my profile... but put his name in search and click on his files.... and pdfs GALORE...
  • #138,123
  • Edited 10:06am Dec 15, 2015 9:46am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting Lavanda
{quote} Well, for me, you have one reality of society and its economy. I thought you were tryng to mix some MacroEconomics Marxists reviews with trading. I wouldn't mix the macroeconomic theories with trading, because you may receive very bad experiences..
Well, I do not see how that could be understood/found in the text even with the most crazy interpretation But we can leave this problem as it is as its way too generall for now
  • #138,124
  • Dec 15, 2015 12:22pm Dec 15, 2015 12:22pm
...and that was it for the day. They made it a lot easier in the Euro for tomorrow. ...we are pretty much entering in no man land. US Equites in control until the close with the last session before the FED.

Expecting a jittery and volatile opening European session tomorrow if we lose 1.094x for the roll today with GOLD also set to lose 1072.xx pre hikes leaving naked the floor and beyond ...

Plenty of major movers and shakers for the rest of the year expected as we are set to finally turn the page on first hikes ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,125
  • Dec 15, 2015 12:24pm Dec 15, 2015 12:24pm
sisse,

I left you my trading plan to do as you will on a page or two back in this posts! Wanted you to know I tried!

Thanks!
  • #138,126
  • Dec 15, 2015 12:38pm Dec 15, 2015 12:38pm
Quoting IMARICH1
sisse, I left you my trading plan to do as you will on a page or two back in this posts! Wanted you to know I tried! Thanks!
Excellent now we have a perfect match up for this with the other poster that also wanted to join in. With that info I think we can make a few points on the upcoming hours till the FED ....

BTW, Troneras was very clear in his view not sure what is your bias for this move as your wrong level imply you are just looking for LONGS ??... Let us know and we can chat with the close ...

+++++ MAP MATCH ++++


-------------------------------------------


TRONERAS


Wrong level --> 1.119x

FLIP --> 1.050x

Mid term target --> 1.00x

Max extension --> 0.978


VS


IMARICH1


Wrong level --> 0.821x

Support level --> 1.043x

FLIP --> 1.080x

Mid term target --> 1.109x

Max extension --> 1.134x


-------------------------------------------

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,127
  • Dec 15, 2015 1:02pm Dec 15, 2015 1:02pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Excellent now we have a perfect match up for this with the other poster that also wanted to join in. With that info I think we can make a few points on the upcoming hours till the FED .... BTW, Troneras was very clear in his view not sure what is your bias for this move as your wrong level imply you are just looking for LONGS ??... Let us know and we can chat with the close ... +++++ MAP MATCH ++++ ------------------------------------------- TRONERAS Wrong level --> 1.119x FLIP --> 1.050x Mid term target --> 1.00x Max extension...
Hi Sisse, if there any empty place in you schoole please also add me.My map is: Wrong level: 1.11Support level: 1.09Flip level: 1.08midterm target: 1.05Max extension: 1
  • #138,128
  • Edited 1:28pm Dec 15, 2015 1:13pm | Edited 1:28pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} Excellent now we have a perfect match up for this with the other poster that also wanted to join in. With that info I think we can make a few points on the upcoming hours till the FED .... BTW, Troneras was very clear in his view not sure what is your bias for this move as your wrong level imply you are just looking for LONGS ??... Let us know and we can chat with the close ... +++++ MAP MATCH ++++ ------------------------------------------- TRONERAS Wrong level --> 1.119x FLIP --> 1.050x Mid term target --> 1.00x Max extension --> 0.978 VS IMARICH1 Wrong level --> 0.821x Support level --> 1.043x FLIP --> 1.080x Mid term target --> 1.109x Max extension --> 1.134x ------------------------------------------- sisse
No, I would be looking for shorts right now, but if FED does a rate hike, but is dovish on his talking it may trigger a corrective upmove (spike). That move should be stopped at 1.114x at most, but I would place my stops on the next level just for exiting at the next retracement (If I am wrong) ... forget that, I think I would have plenty of time for exiting before that level if FED doesn't hike rates, we are talking about a 200 pips spike.
Live and Keep Calm
  • #138,129
  • Dec 15, 2015 1:26pm Dec 15, 2015 1:26pm
Quoting sisse
...and that was it for the day. They made it a lot easier in the Euro for tomorrow. ...we are pretty much entering in no man land. US Equites in control until the close with the last session before the FED. Expecting a jittery and volatile opening European session tomorrow if we lose 1.094x for the roll today with GOLD also set to lose 1072.xx pre hikes leaving naked the floor and beyond ... Plenty of major movers and shakers for the rest of the year expected as we are set to finally turn the page on first hikes ... sisse

1072.xx is above this downward trendline... do you mean 1062 to the downside on gold... if we are expecting rate hikes wouldn't that push gold down in anticipation of for dollar strength so money coming out of gold since those investing in gold would now find better rates for their money elsewhere
  • #138,130
  • Dec 15, 2015 1:46pm Dec 15, 2015 1:46pm
Maybe I have gone too far away with the SL, I don't know how this rate hike, but dovish FED would play, a 1 hour spike, a short term trend? Experience is not in my background. I haven't ever built a weekly position for a huge move like this we are talking, a little insight would be appreciated.

Thinking about the way I should build a position for this kind of move... I know you say a lot that trying to hunt a wale with a 2 meter boat is suicide, but for example, say that I have a good method for catching price turns at 1H charts, wouldn't this be a golden opportunity for catching a big move with a 20 pips stop, letting at BE the position for the next weeks?
In this case, the wrong level would be the level at which I give up on trying to short.
Live and Keep Calm
  • #138,131
  • Edited 2:11pm Dec 15, 2015 1:55pm | Edited 2:11pm
... +++++ MAP MATCH ++++ ------------------------------------------- IMARICH1 Wrong level --> 0.821x Support level --> 1.043x FLIP --> 1.080x Mid term target --> 1.109x Max extension --> 1.134x ------------------------------------------- sisse[/quote]

sisse,

I am SHORT Biased. I was looking at the WRONG level as Resistance since it was in RED and I looked at Support as Green like the grass on the ground as a solid bottom.

I took the levels from my WEEKLY chart. Nothing more. No calculated MIDS and NORMS on retracements. I just looked at visual S and R. Hope this helps. I just looked at Wrong Level meaning a Level I doubt price would go and as a Strong Resistance

I'll try again: (IMARICH1 view)

Wrong Level: 1.1340
Resistance Level: 1.1096
Flip: 1.0808
Mid Term Target: 1.043X
Maximum Extension: .82xx

But, as I stated before, I can see the FLIP being .0978 area from the Monthly chart. This is where I am confused on my FLIP. But, this is MID TERM plan for many weeks if the FED raises rates and continue. If FED raises rates and is dovish; then, .043x to 1.13xx possible. But, what do I know! Thanks!
  • #138,132
  • Dec 15, 2015 2:00pm Dec 15, 2015 2:00pm

Revised:


+++++ MAP MATCH ++++


------------------------------------ -------


TRONERAS


Wrong level --> 1.119x

FLIP --> 1.050x

Mid term target --> 1.00x

Max extension --> 0.978


VS


IMARICH1 (SHORT-BIAS MID TERM)Based off WEEKLY Chart


Wrong level --> 1.134x

Support (Resistance) level --> 1.1096 (Jan 2015 LOW Extension)

FLIP --> 1.0808

Mid term target --> .043X

Max extension --> .821x


------------------------------------ -------

sisse
  • #138,133
  • Dec 15, 2015 4:06pm Dec 15, 2015 4:06pm
...and we rolled no surprise across the board. All eyes on GOLD losing foot starting as early as the Asian session before the FED announcement. On the rest nothing to see or do today with same levels, same trades and same all until tomorrow ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,134
  • Dec 15, 2015 4:06pm Dec 15, 2015 4:06pm
Quoting USD-Bear
considering a short around 38.00 again if it presents USOil H4: {image}
mmm, might have missed it

USOil H4:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Picture0107.png Size: 67 KB
Don't be a hero. Don't have an ego. Always question yourself
  • #138,135
  • Edited 5:54pm Dec 15, 2015 5:40pm | Edited 5:54pm
Quoting roobii
{quote} 1072.xx is above this downward trendline... do you mean 1062 to the downside on gold... if we are expecting rate hikes wouldn't that push gold down in anticipation of for dollar strength so money coming out of gold since those investing in gold would now find better rates for their money elsewhere
I don't use trendiness for actual trading so I can't comment on that. On the second point, yes.

Quoting IMARICH1
+++++ MAP MATCH ++++ ------------------------------------ ------- TRONERAS VS IMARICH1
Ok first, the purpose of this is chat about MAPPING a TRADE not about judging your trades, bias or TA tools, neither on how do you calculate those levels neither if the tools you are using are good or bad or if you direction is right or wrong or even worst deciding how do you pull the trigger.

I just want to make 3 points (Risk, Maps and Timings) about this that I hope help you to explore alternative ways to 'see' how a potential swing trade works instead of the traditional obsession on the technicalities on how to pull the trigger.

--> 1. RISK

  1. IMO, the main task for a trader is to minimise risk not maximise profit and thats exactly the opposite that majority of newbies and struggling traders in these boards do.

    1. They are obsessed with machine gun approaches, trading every thing that moves (and not move), they always think 'missing' a micro pipet retrace in M5/M15/H1, etc is a sign of failure or a bad trader.
    2. They get "hypnotise" by fortune tellers with hundred of micro trades in a week in a 'trade explorer' and the typical "it so easy to make 600 pips a day in an out, etc etc" only to get abandon by the guru when the typical bust come and in only 1 or 2 trades they wipe out all of the winners all because they have ZERO risk management in their trading plan ....i can go forever...

Ok nice the blah blah so what it has to do with this chat?

Well everything.

  1. The main and most important reason to MAP a trade is to evaluate RISK.
  2. You can have the best TA or FA setup in the world but if your RISK doesn't allow you to trade is pretty much useless.

Lets cut to the chase and use your maps to see this point in practice:

--> The current price as I write is 1.093x.

 

  1. Your map is your first and most important reason to justify a trade despite the actual trigger you use from a TA point view (I hope to show you that triggers are on the 'irrelevant' side if you manage risk properly (and obviously are right on the direction).
  2. The main and one of the most serious problems are that most small traders are over leveraged and trading way beyond the comfort zone.

SO. ...

 

  1. You both are bias to the short side for the mid term swing so just for the sake of the point lets (demo it in a whatever account if you want as it will be a superb benchmark later) lets assume we decide to GO SHORT RIGHT NOW in the middle of nowhere price (according to your levels) and time wise (all markets closed).
  2. Lets use a standard risk profile (we are not discussing capital and risk here) of max risk +/- 3% on capital per opening positions. To make the following example easier to follow lets assume a $10.000 so you can trade a $1 a pip without problems (anything below in capital or above in leverage will increase your risk profile and is not advice at all for normal trading...)
  3. You probably expend hundred/thousands of hours in charts, indicators, MT4 whatever looking for trades and triggers but I am pretty sure YOU NEVER or most of the time don't even bother doing the following basic calculation:

--> Blind SHORT 1.093x

​+++ TRONERAS | IMARICH1 +++


--> MAX RISK (Wrong level - Entry):

+/- 260 ticks ($260) | 204 ticks ($204)


--> MAX POTENTIAL REWARD (Entry - Max Ext)

+/- 1150 ticks ($1150) | 2720 ticks ($2720)


--> Realistic Potential REWARD (Entry - Mid term Target)

+/- 430 ticks ($430) | 500 ticks ($500)


--> BEST r:r (MAX Potential Reward/Risk)

4.42 | 13.33


--> Expected r:r (Realistic Potential Reward/Risk)

1.65 | 2.45


Before I wrap up this point just a question. If tomorrow you nice financial advisor/BANK advisor/etc approach you and offer you that r:r profiles Would you consider investing/trading in them DESPITE your indicators, FED, charts and etc ???

...we'll continue later...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,136
  • Dec 15, 2015 8:44pm Dec 15, 2015 8:44pm
Quoting sisse
{quote} I don't use trendiness for actual trading so I can't comment on that. On the second point, yes. {quote} Ok first, the purpose of this is chat about MAPPING a TRADE not about judging your trades, bias or TA tools, neither on how do you calculate those levels neither if the tools you are using are good or bad or if you direction is right or wrong or even worst deciding how do you pull the trigger. I just want to make 3 points (Risk, Maps and Timings) about this that I hope help you to explore alternative ways to 'see' how a potential swing...

Get Rich or Die Tryin
  • #138,137
  • Dec 16, 2015 1:30am Dec 16, 2015 1:30am
Quoting sisse
{quote} sisse,
I think you copied the FLIP number as my midterm target. And the answer to your question is YES.
Live and Keep Calm
  • #138,138
  • Dec 16, 2015 4:23am Dec 16, 2015 4:23am
Interesting to see there was absolutely no reaction on EU CPI as it deviated up from the preliminary release - still no indication of sustainable change in trend of inflation though. But seems markets are absolutely sleeping and focusing on the coming dollar explosives
  • #138,139
  • Dec 16, 2015 7:10am Dec 16, 2015 7:10am
Quoting chester123
Interesting to see there was absolutely no reaction on EU CPI as it deviated up from the preliminary release - still no indication of sustainable change in trend of inflation though. But seems markets are absolutely sleeping and focusing on the coming dollar explosives
Not really ...pretty inline numbers mate.

In any case, after the opening range we are pretty much done with very THIN markets expected till the FED....good time for a review across the board ...

sisse
Pending conversations? PM for a chat...I am mainly in OTM now
  • #138,140
  • Dec 16, 2015 7:19am Dec 16, 2015 7:19am
Quoting sisse
{quote} Not really ...pretty inline numbers mate. In any case, after the opening range we are pretty much done with very THIN markets expected till the FED....good time for a review across the board ... sisse
Hi sisse What is the scenarios of rate hike decision and eurusd price reaction?
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